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Data Center Feasibility Study

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Lender-grade feasibility studies for data center developments across the United States: hyperscale campuses, colocation facilities, AI and HPC sites, powered shells, edge and enterprise buildings, and conversions. Prepared under USPAP discipline, aligned with SBA SOP 50 10 8.1 and 7 CFR Part 5001, and built around the three questions a credit committee asks first: who pays for the power, how much of the revenue is contracted, and what the asset is worth if the tenant leaves.

Engagements start at $4,900, fixed fee quoted at proposal stage. Standard delivery is 9 to 16 business days, rush from 5. A senior analyst responds to proposal requests within 12 business hours.

What a lender-grade data center feasibility study answers

A data center feasibility study is an independent assessment of whether a proposed facility can be built, leased or occupied, and operated at a level that services its debt. For a lender it is the third-party diligence file behind the credit memo. For a sponsor it is the risk filter before capital is committed. The study answers three questions, in this order.

Who pays for the megawatts. Power is a contractual liability before it is an operating cost. As of September 2026, 25 states have approved at least one large-load tariff and seven more have tariffs pending (Edison Electric Institute, Large Load Projects and Tariffs, updated 11 September 2026). The template that has emerged is a minimum bill of about 80 percent of contracted demand for 12 years or more, with collateral posted at signing (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and The Brattle Group, Electricity Rate Designs for Large Loads, 2026 Update, August 2026). The study identifies the tariff, models the minimum bill as a fixed charge, and shows debt service coverage if a tenant leaves during the term.

How much of the revenue is contracted. Rating agencies measure data center occupancy in megawatts sold, not square feet, and they do not uplift a rating for a strong tenant; tenant credit enters through net cash flow and the renewal assumption (CRE Finance Council, Data Center E-Primer, 25 February 2026). The study reports contracted megawatts against commissioned megawatts, the lease-by-lease rollover, and the credit standing behind each contract.

What the asset is worth if the tenant leaves. Moody's data center ABS methodology assumes liquidation proceeds from land value only at legal final maturity, with no value given to buildings or improvements (Moody's Ratings, February 2025, as summarized in the CREFC E-Primer). The study carries a dark-value and re-tenanting case beside the stabilized case.

Feasibility study, appraisal and engineering power study

The three are commissioned together on most data center loans and answer different questions. An appraisal states value as of a date under USPAP. An engineering power study states whether and when the utility can deliver the load. A feasibility study states whether the project, as proposed or as restructured, produces DSCR at or above the lender's covenant under documented assumptions, and it draws on both of the others. MMCG prepares the feasibility study. It does not appraise the subject and does not design the electrical plant. Engagements are led by Michal Mohelsky, a Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute, and the study is written to sit beside an appraisal without contradicting it.

2026 benchmarks lenders are using

The figures below are the latest published as of 4 October 2026 and carry their publication date. A study replaces each with the subject market's own evidence.

MetricFigureSource
Primary-market vacancy1.4 percent, a record low; Northern Virginia 0.2 percentCBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026, 27 August 2026
Under construction and preleased7,481 MW under construction, 80.4 percent preleasedCBRE, H1 2026
Achieved rent, leases above 1 MW$156 per kW per month, Americas, GAAP base rent on new leasesDigital Realty, Q2 2026 results, 23 July 2026
Achieved rent, leases of 0 to 1 MW$293 per kW per month, AmericasDigital Realty, Q2 2026 results
All-in development cost$17.6 million per MW excluding chips, up 21 percent since Q4 2024Cushman & Wakefield, 2026 Data Center Development Cost Guide, 3 September 2026
Powered land$584,000 per MW, up 51 percent year over yearCushman & Wakefield, 2026 guide
Stabilized valueAbout $27 million per MW at an initial cap rate above 6.5 percent, three leased Northern Virginia facilities totaling 288 MWDigital Realty, Q2 2026 results; the per-MW figure is MMCG arithmetic on the disclosed total
Construction leverageUp to 85 percent loan-to-cost at spreads in the low 200 basis points for investment-grade hyperscale tenants; 200 to 300 basis points wider at 70 to 80 percent for other tenantsJLL, North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026, 11 August 2026
ABS closing DSCRMedian 1.93x across 54 data center securitizations, 2019 to 2025CRA International, Data Center Valuations and Potential Disputes, April 2026

Two cautions. The $27 million per MW and the 85 percent loan-to-cost apply to assets leased to investment-grade hyperscalers on multi-hundred-megawatt projects. They are not benchmarks for a 2 MW edge facility or a short-term retail colocation. And no published source gives a verified secondary-market rent series, so the study derives secondary and tertiary rents from local evidence, not from the primary-market tables.

Which financing path fits which data center

The first question on a scoping call is which capital the sponsor is pursuing, because the archetype decides the program. The matrix states the position under the current rules. The two program pages carry the regulatory citations.

ArchetypeUSDA B&ISBA 7(a) and 504Bank construction and term debtCMBS, ABS and high-yieldProject notes with credit support
Rural edge facility, owner-operatedEligible if the site passes the rural test; $25 million cap per borrowerEligible as an operating businessYes, sized on sponsor cash flowBelow the scale these markets serveNo
Owner-occupied enterprise facilityEligibleEligible; the cleanest SBA fitYesNoNo
Small colocation operatorJudgement call, leaning eligible where the operator controls tenants and servicesJudgement call under the space-rental testYesThrough master trusts at scale onlyNo
Wholesale colocationAbove the B&I capAbove the size standards; passive if leasedYesABS master trusts, SASB CMBSRarely
Pre-leased powered shell, credit tenantJudgement call: 5001.105(b)(12) against 5001.115(g)Ineligible as passive real estateYes, conditioned on the executed leaseSASB CMBS, single-asset ABSNo
Speculative shellIneligibleIneligibleRarely, at low leverageNoNo
Hyperscale campusOut of reach at the $25 million capIneligibleYes, with preleasingYesResidual value guarantees in some SPV structures
AI/HPC facility with a hyperscaler backstopJudgement call for a component under $25 million onlyIneligible as structuredYesHigh-yield notesYes, secured by the lease and the backstop
Crypto mining site converted to AI/HPCJudgement call; mining revenue reads as speculativeIneligible in practiceYes, on the leaseHigh-yield notesYes

Three credit families, eleven archetypes

Lenders underwrite every data center on the same three variables. What changes between archetypes is where the risk sits. The archetypes fall into three families, and the study is scoped to the family first.

Contracted-credit assets: hyperscale campuses, powered shells and build-to-suits, and AI/HPC leases carrying a hyperscaler backstop. The lease is the collateral. Underwriting is tenant credit, lease term and the power contract, with minimum DSCR covenants observed at 1.15x on contract-backed facilities (CoreWeave, Form 8-K, 30 March 2026).

Multi-tenant operating assets: wholesale colocation, retail colocation and carrier hotels. Underwriting is churn, rollover clustering, cross-connect density and net cash flow, with structural protections such as a cash trap below 1.35x DSCR and full amortization below 1.20x (KBRA on Cologix 2021-1, as reported by American Banker; CREFC E-Primer).

Small and owner-occupied assets: enterprise facilities, edge sites and rural facilities. Underwriting is the sponsor's business cash flow and the collateral's alternative use. SBA 7(a) and 504 reach these. USDA B&I can in principle, although MMCG found no confirmed public record of a closed USDA data center guarantee in USDA releases and award charts through September 2026.

Hyperscale campus: land and power feasibility

Single-tenant facilities of 40 to 100 MW and campuses of several hundred megawatts, leased on 10 to 15 year terms with base rent at 70 to 80 percent of revenue and metered power passed through (CREFC E-Primer). Asking rents for deployments of 10 MW and larger in Northern Virginia ran $160 to $185 per kW per month in H1 2026, and large-block discounts have largely disappeared as AI occupiers pay for contiguous capacity (CBRE, H1 2026; CBRE, U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026).

What the lender underwrites: the tenant's rating and remaining term; an executed utility agreement with a stated energization date; transmission upgrade cost allocation; transformer lead times, reported at 70 to 100 weeks; and the renewal stress, which S&P sets at a 25 percent renewal probability for hyperscale leases and Fitch at 30 percent (CREFC E-Primer).

Capital structures in use: construction loans with roughly 60 percent preleasing; JV equity; single-asset CMBS such as BX 2025-VOLT at $3.5 billion; single-asset ABS such as QTS Phoenix at about $600 million and 58.6 percent LTV; and off-balance-sheet SPVs with residual value guarantees in the Meta Louisiana financing (CREFC E-Primer). Digital Realty's purchase of a 64 percent interest in three leased Northern Virginia facilities at a gross value of about $7.8 billion and an initial cap rate above 6.5 percent is the clearest 2026 mark for stabilized hyperscale value (Digital Realty, Q2 2026 results).

What MMCG's hyperscale study contains: the utility capacity letter and load-ramp schedule; interconnection queue position and study status; the large-load tariff abstract with floor, term, ramp, collateral and exit terms; the entitlement path from land to power; a tenant credit summary; phasing tied to energization dates; and a dark-value sensitivity with land-only recovery.

Related research: Power, Permits, and Pitfalls; Meta Data Centers: Inside the $600 Billion Infrastructure Gamble; QTS Phoenix DC1 Data Center Feasibility Study.

Colocation: wholesale, retail and carrier hotels

Wholesale colocation leases suites of 5 to 40 MW on 5 to 10 year terms at roughly $150 to $250 per kW per month, usually modified gross plus electric. Retail colocation sells cabinets and cages in facilities of 1 to 10 MW on 1 to 5 year terms at roughly $200 to $400 per kW per month, with revenue split across space, power, cross-connects and managed services and NOI margins of 40 to 50 percent (CREFC E-Primer). The achieved figures sit inside those ranges: Digital Realty's Americas leases above 1 MW at $156 per kW and below 1 MW at $293 per kW in Q2 2026, and Equinix's monthly recurring revenue per cabinet of $2,538 with 1.8 percent quarterly churn (Digital Realty and Equinix, Q2 2026 results).

What the lender underwrites: weighted-average lease term and tenant concentration; contracted megawatts against commissioned megawatts; utilization, with CREFC's illustrative surveillance flags at 85 percent (watch) and 75 percent (action); the rollover schedule; lifecycle reserves, which KBRA cites at $7 to $18 per kW per month for colocation; and the age of mechanical and electrical plant, which draws scrutiny above seven years (CREFC E-Primer).

Capital structures in use: ABS master trusts such as DataBank 2026-1, $665 million across 36 facilities, about 258 MW and about 1,750 tenants, with a weighted-average remaining contract term of 2.0 years (KBRA presale, 12 January 2026); bank construction and term debt; mezzanine or preferred equity filling 15 to 25 percent of the stack.

Carrier hotels are underwritten as retail colocation with interconnection density as the value driver: network count, cross-connect growth and power capacity relative to floor area. One Wilshire in Los Angeles, 660,000 square feet, was refinanced with a $390 million 10-year interest-only loan (DatacenterDynamics). Few trade, and the technical questions are riser and conduit capacity and the power upgrade path.

What MMCG's colocation study contains: submarket absorption and preleasing; competitive supply and pipeline in megawatts; a lease-by-lease rollover schedule; power pass-through and PUE cap terms; churn and customer-count history where the operator exists; an interconnection ecosystem map; and an MEP age and capital reserve schedule.

Related research: U.S. Data Center Industry Report 2026: Two Industries Under One Name.

AI and HPC facilities, including crypto-to-AI conversions

Liquid-cooled facilities at 50 to 100 kW and more per rack, leased to a neocloud or AI lab on modified gross terms with escalators, often with a hyperscaler standing behind the tenant's lease obligations. The credit question differs from hyperscale because the tenant is frequently not investment grade and the contract is frequently shorter than the debt.

The backstop is the collateral. TeraWulf's Lake Mariner leases to Fluidstack cover over 360 MW of critical IT load and $6.7 billion of contracted revenue, and Google's backstop of Fluidstack's lease obligations rose to about $3.2 billion in August 2025 in exchange for warrants (TeraWulf, Form 8-K, 18 August 2025). Cipher's Barber Lake lease to Fluidstack covers 168 MW over 10 years with about $3.0 billion of minimum contract value, and the Google backstop reached $1.73 billion when the full 300 MW site was leased in November 2025 (Cipher Mining, Forms 8-K, 2025). AWS signed a direct 15-year lease with Cipher for 300 MW at about $5.5 billion (Cipher Mining, Form 8-K, 3 November 2025). Secondary reporting on TeraWulf's $1.275 billion secured notes describes a backstop that amortizes over time and carries carve-outs; the study treats carve-outs as a diligence item until read in the offering document.

Tenant credit is priced explicitly. CoreWeave's delayed-draw term loans set spreads by the credit of the customer contract: SOFR plus 6.00 percent for specified investment-grade customers, plus 6.50 percent for other investment-grade customers and plus 13.00 percent for non-investment-grade contracts (CoreWeave, Form 10-Q, Q3 2025). Its DDTL 4.0 facility carries a minimum DSCR of 1.15x (Form 8-K, 30 March 2026). Its August 2026 DDTL 5.5 of $2.6 billion at SOFR plus 5.50 percent matures in September 2031 against customer contracts averaging about three years (Form 8-K exhibit, August 2026). The study models contract expiry before debt maturity, with and without the backstop.

Cost per megawatt. Issuers disclose $8 million to $10 million per IT MW for the TeraWulf conversion (Form 8-K, 14 August 2025) and up to $9.5 million per IT MW at Cipher (Form 8-K, 2026), against $17.6 million all-in for a greenfield build (Cushman & Wakefield, 3 September 2026). Conversions are cheaper because the energized land and the interconnection already exist. Liquid cooling adds 7 to 10 percent to a comparable air-cooled build (Turner & Townsend, Data Centre Construction Cost Index 2025 to 2026, November 2025).

Converting a mining site. Mining shells were built to lower redundancy than Tier III and under curtailment arrangements an AI tenant will not accept. The study carries a gap analysis of the existing electrical and cooling plant against the tenant specification, the utility's treatment of the new load profile, a phasing plan, and the residual mining revenue during conversion. Cipher reported a 300 MW interconnection approved at Barber Lake with a Phase I delivery target of 30 September 2026 (Cipher Mining, Form 10-K, FY2025).

What MMCG's AI/HPC study contains: a backstop mechanics review; tenant and guarantor credit analysis; cooling and density specification against the tenant's requirement; cost to complete per MW with the conversion scope stated; a re-leasing analysis at contract expiry without the backstop; and the curtailment and ride-through terms in the utility agreement.

Related research: Regulatory Journey of Frontier AI Data Centers.

Powered shell, warm shell and build-to-suit

The landlord delivers the building and high-voltage power. The tenant installs the mechanical and electrical plant and signs a long NNN lease. Buildings run 265,000 to 440,000 square feet and campuses 100 to 300 MW in Northern Virginia (Connect CRE on the AREP and Harrison Street Ashburn venture). Core Scientific's Denton powered core and shell cost $1.5 million per MW, with the tenant funding the fit-out (Core Scientific, SEC filing, 2025).

What the lender underwrites: lease credit and term; rent commencement triggers tied to power delivery; termination fees and parent guarantees; subordination and non-disturbance; and the exclusion of tenant-owned improvements from the collateral. The downside is not vacancy in the ordinary sense but a dark shell whose value is land plus power entitlement.

Capital structures in use: construction loans conditioned on an executed investment-grade lease; life company and CMBS take-outs; sale-leasebacks. A single-tenant NNN hyperscale collateral with about 13.8 years of term remaining was securitized in July 2026 (KBRA presale, Lohrasp Enterprise II 2026-1, 7 July 2026).

What MMCG's powered shell study contains: a lease abstract with the lender-protection provisions; a collateral carve-out analysis; the utility delivery schedule as a lease covenant; the construction budget against market cost per MW; and the land-and-power downside value.

Edge, enterprise and rural facilities

Edge facilities are modular units and low single-digit megawatt buildings serving ISPs and carriers that want local peering, education networks, healthcare systems and AI inference. The dated US examples are concentrated in rural Texas: Duos Edge AI's deployments for Region 16 Education Service Center in Amarillo (2024, serving 60 districts and 226 campuses across 26,000 square miles), Victoria ISD (May 2025), Dumas ISD (September 2025), Region 12 in Waco (late 2025), Hereford ISD and Abilene (January 2026), and a second Amarillo unit followed by Lubbock (March 2026) (DatacenterDynamics; Duos Edge AI releases). These are anchor-contract businesses. The feasibility question is the anchor's credit and contract term, not market absorption.

Owner-occupied enterprise facilities are cost centers underwritten on the operating company's cash flow and the collateral's alternative use. They are the cleanest SBA fit: an operating business using its own building, with the 51 percent occupancy test for an existing building or the 60 percent test for new construction met (SOP 50 10 8, Section A, Chapter 3, Paragraph C.1).

Rural facilities under $25 million are the USDA B&I conversation. Cooperatives report inquiries mainly for data centers under 50 MW (Platte-Clay Electric Cooperative, October 2026 newsletter) and, in one Texas territory, expected data center load of 1,300 MW by 2030 (Rayburn Electric Cooperative, 2026). The study for these projects proves three things: the borrower's control of the facility and its services, contracted demand, and DSCR under realistic power and lease-up assumptions.

Adaptive reuse, modular and prefabricated

Warehouse and industrial conversions are underwritten on slab loading, clear height, the power upgrade cost and timeline, and conversion cost against new-build cost; they take on colocation or powered shell economics once leased. No recognized 2026 benchmark publishes a per-MW conversion cost, so the study carries a contractor estimate and a structural review rather than a market figure. Modular and prefabricated deployments are a delivery method, not a credit archetype. The lender's questions are vendor dependence, unit cost, and whether the collateral is real estate or equipment. See also Industrial Feasibility Study.

Power is the underwriting variable

What a large-load tariff obligates

Approved tariffs cluster around the same terms. The LBNL and Brattle sample of 55 tariffs puts the median minimum billing demand at 80 percent of contracted capacity, the median post-2025 term at 12 years and the median threshold at 25 MW; ramp periods of four to five years and exit notice of 24 to 36 months are common (LBNL and Brattle, August 2026). Terms MMCG has verified against the tariff or order:

  • AEP Ohio, Schedule DCT (PUCO Case 24-508-EL-ATA, order 9 July 2025): applies above 25 MW; minimum billing demand on a sliding scale capped at 85 percent of contract capacity, so a 100 MW customer's floor is 82.5 MW; ramp of up to four years, then eight years; collateral of 50 percent of the term's minimum charges unless the customer holds an A- or A3 rating; exit only after year five post-ramp, on payment of 36 months of minimum charges.
  • Ameren Missouri, LLCS (MoPSC ET-2025-0184, order 24 November 2025): 75 MW and above; 80 percent of contract capacity; 12 years plus up to a five-year ramp; collateral of two years of minimum monthly bills; exit fee of the minimum bill times the lesser of the remaining term or five years.
  • Evergy Kansas Central and Metro, LLPS (KCC 25-EKME-315-TAR, approved 6 November 2025): 75 MW and above; 80 percent of annual contract capacity; up to a five-year ramp plus 12 years.
  • Dominion Energy Virginia, GS-5 (SCC PUR-2025-00058, final order 25 November 2025, effective 1 January 2027): 25 MW and above at a 75 percent load factor; 85 percent of contracted transmission and distribution demand and 60 percent of generation demand; 14 years including ramp. Collateral of $1.5 million per MW has been reported by Columbia Law School's Sabin Center.
  • Pennsylvania model tariff (PA PUC M-2025-3054271, final order 12 May 2026): 50 MW individually or 100 MW in aggregate; minimum terms with ramp; 42 months' notice to terminate or reduce.
  • ComEd (ICC 25-0677 and 25-0679): an engineering deposit of $1 million up to 200 MW plus $500,000 per additional 100 MW, and transmission security agreements equal to ten years of transmission revenue.
  • ERCOT, 16 TAC 25.194 (PUCT Project 58481, proposed 12 March 2026, adopted 18 September 2026, effective 8 October 2026): a 75 MW threshold, a $100,000 study fee and $50,000 per MW of interconnection security in the proposal.

How the study models it

The minimum bill is a fixed charge. The study computes the minimum monthly charge from the tariff's floor formula and demand rate, places it above debt service in the waterfall where the borrower is the utility customer of record, and reports a fixed-charge coverage ratio beside DSCR. Collateral is a sources-and-uses item at contract signing, with the letter-of-credit fee as an operating cost and the tariff's step-down schedule applied.

An illustration on published terms. A 100 MW contract at an 80 percent floor and a demand charge of $18.75 per kW per month (the published rate in APS's XHLF schedule) carries a minimum demand charge of $1.5 million a month, $18 million a year. On a hypothetical capital structure with $60 million of NOI and $40 million of annual debt service, base DSCR is 1.50x. If a tenant holding half the capacity vacates, lost NOI is $30 million and the unrecovered floor on the vacated 50 MW is $9 million a year; stressed DSCR is 0.53x. The same $1.5 million minimum bill implies collateral of $5 million under ERCOT's interim security, $36 million under Ameren's two-year rule, $108 million under AEP Ohio's 50-percent-of-term formula before step-downs, and $150 million under Dominion's reported per-MW figure. A single-tenant default on half a campus breaches any covenant unless the lease passes the floor through to the tenant with credit support, or a debt service reserve covers the re-leasing period.

Energization is the gating risk

ERCOT's large-load requests grew from 63 GW in December 2024 to about 410 GW by 26 March 2026, 87 percent of it data centers (ERCOT, Board and legislative updates, 2 December 2025 and 1 April 2026), and to about 474 GW by the time of the Governor's 3 August 2026 letter ordering an audit. New interconnections are paused pending that audit, which ERCOT aims to file by 10 December 2026, and on 21 September 2026 the Governor directed TCEQ to halt data center permits, including behind-the-meter projects, until the audits finish (Utility Dive, 21 August 2026; Texas Tribune, 21 September 2026). In PJM, the last three capacity auctions cleared at or near the cap: $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/27, $333.44 for 2027/28 and $325.00 for 2028/29, when the auction fell 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement and the uncapped simulation cleared at $554.72 (PJM, Base Residual Auction reports, 17 December 2025 and 14 July 2026). At a 90 percent load factor the capped price adds about $15 per MWh to delivered cost; the uncapped figure is the downside once the collar lapses after the 2029/30 auction. Georgia Power's prospective large-load pipeline grew from 16 GW in 2023 to about 69 GW by December 2025 (Georgia Public Service Commission, Data Center Fact Sheet, March 2026).

MMCG's position: an energization date outside an executed utility agreement is not underwritten as a date. It is a scenario.

Co-location, behind-the-meter power, water and local friction

FERC's order of 18 December 2025 in Docket EL25-49 found PJM's tariff unjust and unreasonable for co-located load and directed new transmission services, with rates still subject to a paper hearing; SPP's High Impact Large Load process, accepted by FERC on 14 January 2026 in Docket ER26-247, offers a 90-day study for load paired with generation. Behind-the-meter cost claims in sponsor models are unverified until an executed EPC, fuel supply and O&M contract exists. Water use runs from near zero for closed-loop designs to 0.7 to 2.5 liters per kWh for evaporative cooling (MDPI Fluids, 2026 review), and Tucson, Minnesota, Virginia and Texas adopted reporting or restriction rules in 2025 and 2026. Local permitting has shifted: Loudoun County ended by-right data center development in March 2025 and Prince William County on 22 September 2026; St. Charles, Missouri effectively banned data centers on 19 May 2026; Indianapolis paused new data centers through 2027; Montgomery County, Maryland adopted an 18-month moratorium on 28 July 2026 (county records and local reporting). The study records the jurisdiction's current posture with dates.

How lenders and rating agencies size data center debt

Three frameworks. CMBS treats the collateral as real estate and sizes on value through a cap rate, at 65 to 70 percent LTV. ABS treats it as an operating platform, advances 75 to 80 percent of cash flow and uses the cap rate for terminal value at the anticipated repayment date. Project finance applies where construction risk is unmitigated, which covers most greenfield campuses and conversions (S&P Global Ratings, The Four Main Approaches for Rating Data Center Financings, 13 June 2024; CREFC E-Primer, 25 February 2026).

Coverage levels. Data center ABS closed at an average DSCR of 1.96x and a median of 1.93x across 54 deals from 2019 to 2025, with none at or below 1.0x (CRA International, April 2026). A cash trap at 1.35x and full amortization at 1.20x are typical; the $1.4 billion Iskandar and Kaveh single-asset ABS carries a cash trap below 1.45x and amortization below 1.25x (Asset Securitization Report, 13 April 2026). CREFC expects these early cushions to normalize as the market matures, so the study does not treat current coverage as a permanent baseline.

Surveillance thresholds lenders apply. Utilization below 85 percent and DSCR below 1.25x are watch items; below 75 percent and 1.15x they are action items (CREFC E-Primer).

Construction leverage. Up to 85 percent loan-to-cost at spreads in the low 200 basis points for investment-grade hyperscale tenants, and 200 to 300 basis points wider at 70 to 80 percent for non-investment-grade tenants; combined SASB CMBS and ABS issuance reached $17 billion in H1 2026, up 29 percent (JLL, Midyear 2026). CBRE records about $27.8 billion of high-yield issuance across 12 deals in the same half, including $5.7 billion at 6.25 percent for a 430 MW campus leased to Fluidstack, and a $16 billion construction financing for an Oracle-leased campus in Michigan (CBRE, H1 2026).

Recovery. The agencies give land value only at legal final maturity (Moody's, as summarized by CREFC). An agency's stressed DSCR is not a bank covenant: Fitch's 0.71x on Iskandar and Kaveh and the deal's 1.45x trigger are computed on different bases.

SBA and USDA data center financing

Both programs reach data centers, in narrower ways than lender marketing suggests. The positions in brief; the two program pages carry the regulatory text.

SBA finances data center operators, not data center landlords. A business primarily engaged in owning real estate and leasing it is ineligible (SOP 50 10 8, Section A, Chapter 1, Paragraph E.3). Owner-occupied enterprise facilities, MSP and ISP edge sites, managed hosting and GPU cloud operators are eligible operating businesses under NAICS 518210, with a $40.0 million receipts size standard (13 CFR 121.201). Retail colocation with assigned cages is a judgement call under the space-rental test. The combined 7(a) and 504 limit rose to $10 million on 4 July 2026 (SBA Policy Notice 5000-879058). The 504 job test of one job per $95,000 of debenture (90 FR 47117) is hard for a data center to meet, so the practical 504 route is the energy public policy goal under 13 CFR 120.862(b)(11). SOP 50 10 8.1 applies to loans numbered on or after 1 October 2026 (SBA Information Notices 5000-880695 and 5000-882227). SBA Data Center Feasibility Study

USDA B&I can finance a rural data center the borrower owns and controls, up to $25 million in total B&I debt per borrower (7 CFR 5001.406(c)). Facilities built for lease to private businesses are an eligible purpose (5001.105(b)(12)), but speculative real estate and primarily commercial rental without control over tenants and services are not (5001.115(a) and (g)), and USDA cannot guarantee lease payments (5001.115(e)). FY2026 terms are a 3.0 percent guarantee fee, a 0.55 percent annual retention fee, and an 85 percent guarantee under $5 million or 80 percent from $5 million to $25 million (91 FR 11272, 9 March 2026). A feasibility study is required on guaranteed loans over $1 million to a new business (5001.306(a)(3)(i)). REAP grants have been halted since 31 March 2026 pending a rule rewrite; REAP guaranteed loans remain open. MMCG found no confirmed public record of a closed USDA data center financing. USDA Data Center Feasibility Study

What an MMCG data center feasibility study contains

Each study is scoped to the archetype, the market and the financing structure, and written as the evidence file a credit committee will request.

  1. Determination. The feasibility opinion stated as proposed and, where the proposal does not clear the covenant, as resized or restructured: a smaller phase one, a lease condition precedent, a different program.
  2. Power and site. The utility capacity or will-serve letter; interconnection status and queue position; the large-load tariff abstract (threshold, floor, term, ramp, collateral, exit); transmission upgrade cost allocation; fiber route diversity; water source and cooling design; flood, seismic and environmental screening; zoning and the entitlement path with dates.
  3. Market and demand. Submarket inventory, vacancy, net absorption, under-construction megawatts and preleasing from the current CBRE, JLL and Cushman & Wakefield series, replaced by local evidence where the subject sits outside the primary markets; the competitive set with capacity, density, redundancy and pricing; demand evidence by tenant type, from signed leases and LOIs down to the anchor contract on an edge site.
  4. Revenue. Rent per kW per month by deployment size; structure (NNN, modified gross plus electric, full service); escalators, term, options and pass-through terms; absorption pace and churn; contracted megawatts against commissioned megawatts.
  5. Cost. A full development cost table by category against published benchmarks, with the scope stated (shell and core, full fit-out, conversion); contingency; interconnection contributions; tariff collateral; and the asset-life split that determines program eligibility.
  6. Operations. PUE, power cost at the applicable tariff, staffing, maintenance, insurance, and property tax from the county assessor and any abatement agreement.
  7. Pro forma and DSCR. A ten-year projection; DSCR by year; fixed-charge coverage where a minimum bill applies; break-even occupancy and rent; sensitivities on power cost, lease-up delay, rent, interest rate, capital overrun and loss of the largest tenant, including a tenant exit during the minimum-bill term.
  8. Tenant and guarantor credit. For contracted-credit assets, the lease abstract, backstop mechanics, termination fees and guarantees.
  9. Program eligibility. For SBA and USDA files, the eligibility memo keyed to the SOP or Part 5001 section, the occupancy or control test, the equity tier, and the job or public policy test.
  10. Jobs and economic impact. Direct permanent positions reported separately from construction and induced jobs, with capital per direct job shown against published benchmarks.
  11. Management. Operating history with mission-critical facilities, key-person depth, and any management agreement's oversight terms.
  12. Independence statement and qualifications.

The exhibits are built first, as workbooks, and the narrative is written to them. Every figure carries its source. A fact that exists only in conversation is restated on a documentary basis or goes to a signed management representation.

Who commissions a data center feasibility study

Commercial lenders and CDCs that require independent third-party diligence before credit approval on construction, term or guaranteed loans. Developers and sponsors making go or no-go decisions, assembling capital-raise materials and planning entitlements. Infrastructure and real estate investors in pre-acquisition diligence on development-stage opportunities. Corporate end users evaluating owner-occupied or build-to-suit facilities. Rural operators and cooperatives weighing a USDA path.

Why lenders and developers work with MMCG

Every conclusion traces to a document: regulations, dockets, SEC filings, rating agency criteria, broker research, EIA and Census data, county records, and MMCG's own parcel and market data. The firm's research has been cited by Forbes, The Washington Post, The Independent and Albany Business Review. MMCG provides prospective clients with direct references and encourages a call to them before engaging. Data centers are one of several asset classes the firm covers, alongside industrial, multifamily, hospitality, self-storage, senior living, retail and mixed-use, which gives the study a cross-sector read on demand, cost and credit that single-asset consultants lack. All project data and work product are held under strict confidentiality.

Data center asset types we analyze

Hyperscale campuses. Wholesale and retail colocation. AI, GPU and HPC facilities with liquid cooling. Crypto mining site conversions. Powered shell, warm shell and build-to-suit. Edge data centers. Enterprise and owner-occupied facilities. Warehouse and industrial adaptive reuse. Modular and prefabricated deployments. Carrier hotels and interconnection facilities.

Research on data centers

Frequently asked questions

What is a data center feasibility study?

An independent assessment of whether a proposed data center can be built, leased or occupied, and operated at a level that services its debt. It covers power and interconnection, market demand and competitive supply, revenue and lease structure, development cost, operations, a ten-year pro forma with DSCR by year, sensitivities, tenant credit and, where relevant, program eligibility. MMCG prepares it under USPAP discipline and aligned with SBA SOP 50 10 8.1 and 7 CFR Part 5001.

Who requires the study, the lender or the developer?

Both commission them. Lenders and CDCs order it as the independent diligence behind the credit memo. Developers order it as a go or no-go filter before capital is committed, and lenders then rely on the same report. USDA requires one on guaranteed loans over $1 million to a new business (7 CFR 5001.306(a)(3)(i)). SBA may require one under 13 CFR 120.160(b), and lenders typically do on startups, new construction and special purpose property.

How is a feasibility study different from an appraisal or a power study?

An appraisal states value as of a date. An engineering power study states whether and when the utility can deliver the load. The feasibility study states whether the project produces DSCR at or above the lender's covenant under documented assumptions, and it uses both of the others as inputs.

What do lenders underwrite first on a data center loan?

Power, in three parts: an executed utility agreement with an energization date, the large-load tariff's minimum bill and collateral, and the interconnection queue position. Tenant credit and lease term come next, then recovery value if the tenant leaves.

How long does a data center feasibility study take?

Standard delivery is 9 to 16 business days from engagement, with rush delivery from 5 business days. The timeline depends on the archetype and on how quickly utility correspondence, leases and cost estimates are supplied.

What does a data center feasibility study cost?

Engagements start at $4,900 and are quoted as a fixed fee at proposal stage. The fee depends on the archetype, the number of phases and sites, and the lender's program requirements. See What a study costs.

Which data center types does MMCG analyze?

Hyperscale campuses, wholesale and retail colocation, AI and HPC facilities, crypto mining conversions, powered shells and build-to-suits, edge facilities, owner-occupied enterprise facilities, warehouse and industrial conversions, modular deployments, and carrier hotels.

How is data center occupancy measured?

In megawatts, not square feet. Lenders and rating agencies track the share of commissioned megawatts that is contracted and metered. CREFC's illustrative surveillance thresholds flag utilization below 85 percent and act below 75 percent (CREFC E-Primer, 25 February 2026).

What DSCR do data center lenders require?

It depends on the structure. Contract-backed facilities carry minimum covenants observed at 1.15x (CoreWeave, Form 8-K, 30 March 2026). Securitizations closed at a median DSCR of 1.93x across 54 deals (CRA International, April 2026), with cash traps typically at 1.35x and amortization at 1.20x. SBA and USDA lenders size to their program floors and global cash flow; the study reports DSCR under base and stressed cases at the applicable threshold.

Can a feasibility study support an SBA or USDA application?

Yes. The study is written to the lender's program. For SBA files it carries the eligibility memo, occupancy schedule, equity tier and job or public policy test. For USDA files it covers the five Appendix A components and the 37 factors under 7 CFR Part 5001.

What is a large-load tariff and why does it matter to the loan?

A utility rate schedule for customers above a threshold, commonly 25 to 75 MW, that requires a minimum bill of about 80 percent of contracted demand for 12 years or more, collateral at signing, and exit fees. The minimum bill is a fixed charge that survives a tenant default, so the study models it above debt service and stresses DSCR for a tenant leaving during the term.

What is a hyperscaler backstop?

A guarantee by a hyperscaler of a smaller tenant's lease obligations. Google's backstops of Fluidstack's leases at TeraWulf and Cipher sites, disclosed in SEC filings in 2025, are the public examples. Lenders lend against the backstop, so its amount, amortization and carve-outs are diligence items.

Can a bitcoin mining site become an AI data center?

Yes, and public miners have signed such leases. The conversion costs $8 million to $10 million per IT MW in disclosed cases, against $17.6 million all-in for a new build, because the energized land and interconnection already exist. The study tests the existing plant against the tenant specification and the utility's treatment of the new load.

Will lenders finance a powered shell without a signed lease?

Rarely, and at low leverage. Construction loans on powered shells are conditioned on an executed lease to a credit tenant. The study for a shell carries a lease abstract and a downside case valued at land plus power entitlement.

Which US markets have power available?

Primary-market vacancy is 1.4 percent and 80.4 percent of under-construction capacity is preleased (CBRE, H1 2026), so available power is market and site specific. The study reports the subject's utility's capacity, queue and tariff, and it treats an energization date outside an executed agreement as a scenario, not a date.

How much does a data center cost per MW?

$17.6 million per MW all-in, excluding chips, for a modern greenfield facility (Cushman & Wakefield, 3 September 2026). Shell and core alone runs about $11.3 million per MW (JLL, 2026 outlook). Powered core and shell with the tenant funding fit-out has been disclosed at $1.5 million per MW, and crypto-to-AI conversions at $8 million to $10 million per IT MW (SEC filings, 2025). The study states which scope the figure covers.

Prepared by Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA, Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute.

Request a data center feasibility study proposal

Engagements are led by Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute. Feasibility studies are prepared under USPAP discipline, aligned with SBA SOP 50 10 8.1 for 7(a) and 504 loans and with 7 CFR Part 5001, Appendix A to Subpart D, for USDA Business and Industry, REAP and Community Facilities financing. Engagements start at $4,900 with fixed-fee scoping. Standard delivery is 9 to 16 business days, with rush turnaround available from 5 days. A senior analyst responds to proposal requests within 12 business hours from the firm's San Francisco office at 27 Maiden Lane, Suite 625.

Start a Study · Book a 30-minute scoping call · michal@mmcginvest.com · (628) 225-1110

Where we work

The same study, prepared to the lender requirements of the state the project sits in.

Request Feasibility Study Proposal

Contact MMCG Invest

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Principal of MMCG Invest

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA

Principal in charge · MMCG Invest, LLC

Emailmichal@mmcginvest.com

Direct(628) 225-1110

Prefer to talk first?Book a 30-minute scoping call

Engagement Floor

From $4,900

Fixed-fee at proposal stage

Turnaround

9 to 16 business days

Rush from 5 business days available

San Francisco Office

27 Maiden Lane · Union Square
27 Maiden Lane, Suite 625
San Francisco CA 94108
Directions

Prefer a five-question quick start?Start a StudyFirst response within 12 business hours

Proposal Request

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