A 200-acre portion of the publicly documented Marysville South site in Union County, Ohio, about 600 acres rezoned to a Planned Unit Development permitting data centers in August 2024, granted a 15-year, 100 percent Community Reinvestment Area abatement under Ordinance U, and sold for about $205 million in January 2026, proposed as a 240 MW critical IT hyperscale campus leased to one investment-grade tenant on a triple-net basis. The site's transmission solution is a $246 million PJM supplemental project with an in-service date of 1 May 2031 and a status of Conceptual. Underwritten at a total project cost of $2,995,608,000, $12.48 million per MW, with an 80 percent construction loan of $2,396,485,000 and a $2.6 billion single-asset ABS take-out covering 1.78x at stabilization. As a single-phase financing the campus fails: coverage falls to 0.76x in 2032 with the full loan drawn while one hall is leased and powered. Restructured into three 80 MW phases, each drawn only on an executed lease and a documented energization date, Phase 1 stands alone at 2.01x interest-only and 1.64x amortizing. Determination: not feasible as proposed; feasible as phased, with the loan underwritten as tenant credit, because a dark campus returns 0.8 to 6.7 percent of the take-out debt on a land-and-power basis.
Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | 4 October 2026
Study at a Glance
| Item | Finding |
|---|---|
| Subject | Marysville South, southwest Marysville, south of Union County Airport, west of Industrial Parkway, Weaver Road; about 600 acres of record, 200 acres modeled |
| Entitlement | Planned Unit Development adopted August 2024 with data centers as a permitted use; 150-foot pavement and 200-foot building setbacks; 12-foot mound with 6 feet of landscaping |
| Incentive | Community Reinvestment Area, 15 years, 100 percent on improvements, Ordinance U (first reading 10 November 2025; adoption reported 2 December 2025); PILOT about 50 percent of foregone tax |
| Recorded sale | About $205 million, January 2026, New Albany Company affiliate to Anadonna LLC (Columbus Dispatch reporting) |
| Utility of record | AES Ohio, inferred from PJM need Dayton-2025-008 |
| Transmission solution | Patina 765/345 kV substation, Weaver 345 kV substation, two 5-mile 345 kV lines, two customer feeds; $246 million; in service 1 May 2031; status Conceptual (PJM TEAC, 3 February 2026) |
| Modeled program | 240 MW critical IT in three 80 MW halls; 300 MW contract capacity in three 100 MW service agreements at PUE 1.25 |
| Tariff modeled | AEP Ohio Schedule DCT terms as proxy (PUCO 24-508-EL-ATA, order 9 July 2025); AES Ohio's own data center tariff pending in PUCO 25-0958-EL-AIR |
| Total Subject Project Cost | $2,995,608,000 ($12,481,700 per MW); Phase 1 $1,115,724,000 ($13,946,550 per MW) |
| Construction loan | $2,396,485,000, 80 percent loan-to-cost, 6.25 percent, interest-only |
| Take-out | Single-asset ABS, $2,600,000,000, 5.875 percent, 25-year schedule, 7-year ARD; annual debt service $198,640,000 |
| Rent | $120 per kW per month NNN, 3 percent annual escalator, 15-year term plus three 5-year options |
| DSCR at take-out (2034) | 1.78x on cash flow available for debt service; debt yield 13.75 percent |
| Phase 1 DSCR | 2.01x interest-only; 1.64x amortizing |
| Single-phase coverage, 2032 | 0.76x |
| Determination | Not feasible as a single-phase financing; feasible as three conditioned phases |
Determination
As proposed, the subject is a single-phase financing of a 240 MW critical IT campus, and it is not feasible. The transmission solution that serves the site is a conceptual PJM supplemental project with a 1 May 2031 in-service date, and the utility's own load ramp for the area steps from 270 MW in May 2030 to 540 MW in November 2031 and 800 MW in May 2033. If the full construction loan closes and draws on one schedule while one 80 MW hall is leased and energized, coverage in 2032 is 0.76x, Phase 1 NOI of $113.2 million against $149.8 million of interest, and coverage during any transmission delay is 0.00x.
Restructured into three phases, the subject is feasible. Each phase draw is conditioned on an executed lease meeting the Phase Conditions set out under Demand and Penetration and on a documented energization date in an executed utility agreement. On that basis Phase 1 stands alone at 2.01x on interest-only construction debt and 1.64x amortizing, and the stabilized campus refinances at 1.78x with a 13.75 percent debt yield.
Two risks break the case and collateral fixes neither. If the tenant vacates half its capacity during the minimum-bill term, coverage falls to 0.71x. If the campus goes dark, the lender recovers between 0.8 and 6.7 percent of the take-out debt on a land-and-power-only basis, before the utility's $89.1 million exit claim. The loan is a tenant-credit loan and must be underwritten as one.
Scope and Basis of This Model Study
This is an MMCG model study. The site, its entitlement and incentive record, its sale price and its transmission solution are real, public and cited. The sponsor, the joint venture equity investor and the tenant are hypothetical and unnamed. Anadonna LLC appears only as the named counterparty in the City of Marysville's CRA legislation and the reported grantee of the January 2026 sale; no transaction with it is assumed. The model assumes the hypothetical sponsor controls 200 acres of the site at the documented per-acre price. Real companies appear only as cited comparables in announced transactions, as the utility of record, or as named parties in public filings. Every figure is sourced and dated or labeled MMCG assumption. Items not verified from a primary source are listed in Conditions and Limitations. The effective date of analysis is 4 October 2026.
Project Business Plan
The hypothetical sponsor develops a three-building, 240 MW critical IT campus on 200 acres of Marysville South and leases it to one investment-grade hyperscale tenant on a triple-net basis. Each building is an 80 MW hall of about 330,000 square feet, about 990,000 square feet in total, within the city's published estimate of 750,000 to 1 million square feet for the site. The design is hybrid air and direct-to-chip liquid cooling on a closed-loop, air-cooled chiller plant at a design PUE of 1.25 (MMCG assumption), with 2N electrical distribution, N+1 generation and two diverse 345 kV customer feeds. Phases are sequenced to the PJM transmission solution, with Phase 1 energized at the transmission in-service date, Phase 2 at the utility's November 2031 step and Phase 3 at the May 2033 step. The lease carries base rent of $120 per kW per month, a 3 percent annual escalator, a 15-year term with three 5-year options, rent commencement tied to documented energization plus commissioning, a termination fee equal to unamortized landlord cost plus the tariff exit charge, and an investment-grade parent guarantee. The take-out is single-asset ABS after the third phase stabilizes. The sponsor holds the campus through a single-purpose entity with a 90 percent institutional JV investor and the sponsor at 10 percent, pari passu to an 8 percent preferred return, then 80/20 to a 12 percent IRR, then 70/30 (MMCG assumption).
Site and Location Analysis
The City of Marysville's Data Center FAQs place the site in southwest Marysville, south of the Union County Airport and west of Industrial Parkway, at about 600 acres, with an estimated investment of $1 billion or more and payroll of about $4 million a year. The developer is funding an overpass because the site is described as virtually inaccessible without it, with construction expected between 2026 and 2027. Union County is on the US-33 corridor northwest of Columbus. The city reports that its data center projects will create at least 50 full-time operational jobs, and the Anadonna application projects 50 jobs by 2036. Electrician scarcity is the binding construction labor constraint for the modeled schedule. Auditor parcel identifiers for the Anadonna holding were not obtained; a marketed 58.58-acre parcel, 29-0023077-0000 at 14900 to 15000 Weaver Road, is not confirmed as part of the site.
Land evidence. The documented price is about $341,667 per acre ($205 million over about 600 acres). Altus Group's August 2026 analysis puts Central Ohio, Phoenix and Atlanta medians at $100,000 to $460,000 per acre, Northern Virginia's median at $2.8 million per acre, and finds that committed utility load is the strongest single predictor of price, with sites within half a mile of a high-voltage substation trading at about twice sites two to five miles away. Cushman & Wakefield's 2026 guide puts powered land at an average of $584,000 per MW in primary markets, up 51 percent year over year. The subject's modeled land basis of $285,000 per MW sits below that average, consistent with a site whose power is conceptual rather than committed.
Zoning and Entitlement
| Date | Action | Disposition |
|---|---|---|
| Before August 2024 | Zoned Manufacturing and Innovation, and Light Manufacturing, at acquisition by Marysville Land Company | Existing |
| August 2024 | Rezoned to PUD after a Planning Commission recommendation, resident meetings and three City Council readings; development area map Exhibit C dated 19 August 2024 | Approved |
| 10 November 2025 | Ordinance U, the CRA agreement with Anadonna LLC plus a donation agreement with Marysville Exempted Village Schools, Ohio Hi-Point and the Union County Community Improvement Corporation, introduced on first reading | Introduced |
| Reported 2 December 2025 | Ordinance U adopted | Approved; adoption date to be confirmed |
| January 2026 | Sale of nearly 600 acres for about $205 million | Recorded per press |
| 3 February 2026 | PJM TEAC solution meeting for need Dayton-2025-008 | Conceptual |
Conditions of approval under the PUD are minimum setbacks of 150 feet for pavement and 200 feet for buildings, a 12-foot mound with 6 feet of landscaping, and data centers added as a permitted use. No litigation or appeal of the PUD or Ordinance U was found. The subject must meet the Marysville noise ordinance, Codified Ordinances Section 1123.16. The 12-month moratorium adopted 14 September 2026 by a Marysville City Council is Marysville, Kansas, not the subject city, and no moratorium applies in Marysville, Ohio.
Local posture since 2025. Jerome Township, the Union County neighbor served by Marysville water, adopted a moratorium (reported 15 October 2025). The Licking County Planning Commission gave non-binding approval to St. Albans Township's exclusion of data centers and the Licking Township commission recorded an 8-0 disapproval of a text amendment (5 February 2026). The Logan-Union-Champaign Regional Planning Commission recommended data center rules with a prohibited-by-default clause for Darby, Liberty, Millcreek, Union and Rush Townships (9 April 2026). Pataskala's Planning and Zoning Commission recommended rejection 5-2 and City Council rejected 7-0 Aligned's 200 MW plan (3 June and 25 August 2026). Pataskala and Granville have charter amendments banning data centers above 25 MW on the 3 November 2026 ballot, and the USA Today Network reports 18 Ohio municipalities and townships voting on data center regulations on Election Day. The study records the subject city's posture as entitled and unopposed and its neighbors' as hostile.
Utilities, Fees and Property Tax
Power. The utility of record is inferred to be AES Ohio, because PJM need Dayton-2025-008 describes a customer request for service in the vicinity of its Darby Substation in Marysville and a new Weaver 345 kV substation near the customer site. Separately, AES Ohio's Marysville Area Improvement Project would expand Darby Substation and build a 5-mile 138 kV line to a new Meadow Substation, with the utility stating that customer load requests necessitate a significant increase in transmission support by 2028. The tariff, minimum charge, collateral and energization analysis follow under Power, Tariff and Energization.
Water and sewer. Marysville draws from a reservoir holding more than a billion gallons and has built a new water plant with land for expansion (Ohio Newsroom, 15 October 2025). On-site wells are not permitted (City FAQ). The Public Service Director told WBNS 10TV the city has been trying to restrict large draws so they do not impact the system or current customers; no codified restriction or reporting rule applicable to the site was identified. The modeled design is closed-loop air-cooled chillers with liquid cooling, make-up and domestic use of 25,000 gallons a day at design load (MMCG assumption), which at the modeled average facility load of 255 MW is 0.015 liters per kWh, against 0.7 to 2.5 liters per kWh for evaporative designs (MDPI Fluids 2026 review). Combined water and sewer at $12.00 per 1,000 gallons (MMCG assumption) gives $109,500 a year.
Property tax. The Union County Auditor values real property at market value under a six-year reappraisal and three-year update cycle; Ohio assesses real property at 35 percent of value and has phased out its general tangible personal property tax (MMCG understanding, to be confirmed). The CRA abates 100 percent of new construction for 15 years; land remains taxable. The PILOT gives local governments about 50 percent of what they would otherwise receive, and Marysville Matters reported the schools would receive $1.2 million a year. The city expects $18 million of land tax over 15 years on the 600 acres, $2,000 per acre per year, or $400,000 a year on 200 acres. Improvement value of $300 million per phase at a 1.38 percent effective rate (secondary aggregator) gives $4.14 million of foregone tax per phase and a $2.07 million PILOT per phase.
| Phase | Land tax | PILOT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | $400,000 | $2,070,000 | $2,470,000 |
| Phase 2 | $0 | $2,070,000 | $2,070,000 |
| Phase 3 | $0 | $2,070,000 | $2,070,000 |
| Campus | $400,000 | $6,210,000 | $6,610,000 |
Sales and use tax. The Ohio data center equipment exemption under ORC 122.175 (MMCG understanding of thresholds: $100 million of investment and $1.5 million of payroll) is modeled as available only to the extent already awarded. On 27 May 2026 Governor DeWine directed the Ohio Tax Credit Authority to pause consideration of new data center tax exemption requests while the Joint Data Center Committee studies data center growth, and the Authority stopped taking new proposals after its 1 June 2026 meeting. Whether the pause affects an assignee of an existing award is unverified.
Power, Tariff and Energization
Tariff abstract, modeled proxy. AEP Ohio Schedule DCT, PUCO Case 24-508-EL-ATA, order 9 July 2025, approved: applies above 25 MW; minimum billing demand on a sliding scale capped at 85 percent of contract capacity, so a 100 MW customer's floor is 82.5 MW; up to a four-year ramp then eight years, 12 years in total; collateral of 50 percent of the term's minimum charges unless the customer holds an A- or A3 rating, with a co-signing financial sponsor permitted to post; exit only after year five post-ramp on payment of 36 months of minimum charges. AES Ohio's own data center tariff is pending: the PUCO Staff Report of May 2026 recommended a tariff in 25-0958-EL-AIR with Secondary, Primary, Primary Substation and High Voltage classes, a settlement was filed about 21 July 2026, and the AES-specific percentages are not verified. The AEP terms are a fair proxy because the market has priced them: after approval, formal study requests fell to 13,022.7 MW across 36 sites and signed DCT service agreements totaled 5,642 MW against 12,219 MW signed before the tariff (AEP Ohio letter to PUCO, 12 February 2026). The Ohio Manufacturers' Association testified on 18 June 2026 that AES Ohio's two data center projects carry $837.5 million in initial transmission project costs, an advocacy figure.
Minimum charge. At a high-voltage transmission and distribution demand rate of $10.00 per kW per month (MMCG assumption), the floor per 100 MW phase is 82,500 kW × $10.00 = $825,000 a month, $9,900,000 a year; for the campus, $2,475,000 a month, $29,700,000 a year. One 300 MW agreement at the 85 percent cap would carry $30,600,000 a year.
Collateral at signing. 50 percent × ($9,900,000 × 12 years) = $59,400,000 per phase, $178,200,000 for the campus, posted as standby letters of credit when each phase's service agreement is signed, with a 20 percent cash margin of $11,880,000 per phase carried in the cost estimate and a 1.50 percent fee ($2,673,000 a year at full posting) stepping down by one-twelfth of the original face each year after energization (MMCG assumptions). If the investment-grade tenant takes service as customer of record at A- or A3 or better, the collateral is waived, which is the single most valuable structuring lever in the file. Exit exposure is 36 × $825,000 = $29,700,000 per phase, $89,100,000 for the campus.
Energization. PJM need Dayton-2025-008 was presented at the need meeting on 9 September 2025 and the solution meeting on 3 February 2026 with a requested ramp of 270 MW by May 2030, 540 MW by November 2031 and 800 MW by May 2033. The solution comprises a Patina 765/345 kV substation cutting into the Marysville to Flatlick 765 kV line ($168 million), a Weaver 345 kV substation ($25 million), two 5-mile 345 kV lines ($46 million) and two 345 kV customer feeds ($7 million), $246 million in total, with a project in-service date of 1 May 2031 and a status of Conceptual. The May 2030 step cannot be met, so the earliest underwritable energization is 1 May 2031. Wood Mackenzie's Q2 2025 survey puts power transformer lead times at an average of 128 weeks and its 2026 reading puts substation transformers above 160 weeks, so Phase 1 long-lead equipment must be ordered by early 2028. No executed construction or service agreement is public; every date in this study is a scenario.
Cost allocation. The project is a PJM supplemental project driven by a customer request. AES Ohio has signaled it will seek rolled-in rate treatment for network upgrades, per the Office of the Ohio Consumers' Counsel filing on the utility's Fayette County project, where first-phase transmission costs would exceed $22 million. The model carries the $7 million of customer feeds, a $25 million Weaver contribution and a $40.1 million reserve equal to half of the subject's 300/800 pro rata share of the $214 million Patina substation and line cost.
Delivered power cost. On 240 MW IT at 85 percent utilization and a 1.25 PUE, 255 MW average load, 2,233,800 MWh a year and a peak billing demand of 285 MW (MMCG assumptions): competitive retail energy at $55 per MWh, $122,859,000; PJM capacity at the 2026/27 cap price of $329.17 per MW-day on 285 MW, $34,242,000; transmission and distribution demand at $10.00 per kW per month, $34,200,000; riders and taxes at $5 per MWh, $11,169,000; total $202,470,000, or $0.0906 per kWh, $70.30 per IT kW-month, $56.24 per contract kW-month. The demand line includes the $29,700,000 floor, fully recovered from the tenant at modeled load. PJM's 2026/27 Base Residual Auction Report (22 July 2025) states all prices cleared at the cap, and the collar lapses after the 2029/30 auction.
Behind-the-meter alternative. Ohio permits on-site generation through the Ohio Power Siting Board, which approved the 200 MW Socrates South behind-the-meter plant serving Meta's New Albany campus on 9 June 2025. Co-located load in PJM remains subject to FERC's 18 December 2025 order in EL25-49, with rates pending a paper hearing. Trackers report a Columbia Gas pipeline for the site was shelved. Any behind-the-meter case is unverified until an executed EPC, fuel supply and O&M contract exists, and it is not modeled.
Trade Area Demographics
The campus serves a single hyperscale tenant whose demand is national, so the trade area is the market's power and the tenant's credit, not the county's population. Union County population, income and labor force figures were not compiled. The relevant local figures are the city's expectation of at least 50 full-time operational jobs, the Anadonna application's 50 jobs by 2036, and the regional electrician shortage that constrains the construction schedule.
Demand and Penetration
| Market | Vacancy | Other metrics | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus | 0.1 percent | Despite significant new supply online | JLL Midyear 2026, 11 August 2026 |
| Northern Virginia | 0.2 percent | 2,420.2 MW under construction; 10 MW-plus asking $160 to $185 per kW-month; rent growth 1.5 percent | CBRE H1 2026, 27 August 2026 |
| Chicago | 2.2 percent | Rent growth 9.7 percent | CBRE H1 2026 |
| All primary markets | 1.4 percent | Inventory 10,903 MW; H1 absorption 1,456.2 MW; 7,481.1 MW under construction, 80.4 percent preleased; less than 1,500 MW available | CBRE H1 2026 |
A Columbus-specific inventory and absorption series was not obtained; utility data substitutes. Central Ohio data center load was about 600 MW in April 2024 and was expected to reach 5,000 MW by 2030 on signed agreements (AEP testimony to PUCO), and AEP Ohio holds 17,861 MW of signed data center service agreements (12 February 2026).
Tenant universe, credit stated by class. Amazon Web Services: Marysville Project Cosmo on 55 acres, $1 billion, CRA approved 10 March 2025; Fayette County, 590 acres for $102.4 million, a $5 billion plan; Beech Road, about 400 acres for $116.6 million (2023). Google: 85 acres in New Albany for $63 million through Montauk Innovations, May 2025. Meta: a 740-acre New Albany campus with the 200 MW Socrates South plant. Microsoft: more than 300 acres in Hebron and Union Township, six buildings over about 10 years (2023). All four are investment-grade hyperscalers. Cologix: Johnstown, 154 acres, 800 MW, $7 billion; Lewis Center COL5, 120 MW; a private sponsor-backed operator. Aligned and Vantage: the Pataskala 200 MW plan rejected; Vantage in New Albany; private sponsor-backed operators.
Absorption and preleasing. JLL reports 95 percent of North American capacity under construction pre-committed and tenants contracting now for 2028 deliveries; CBRE reports 80.4 percent preleasing in primary markets. The modeled lease-up assumes each phase is leased before its draw; no speculative absorption is credited.
Penetration test. Subject contract capacity of 300 MW is 1.7 percent of AEP Ohio's 17,861 MW of signed service agreements and 6.0 percent of the 5,000 MW 2030 Central Ohio load. Subject IT load of 240 MW is 8.2 percent of one year of primary-market absorption (1,456.2 MW × 2 = 2,912.4 MW); Phase 1's 80 MW is 2.7 percent.
Phase Conditions. For each phase, a signed lease or letter of intent must show 80 MW of critical IT committed; a term of 15 years or more; base rent of $120 per kW-month or more, NNN, with 3 percent annual escalators; rent commencement no later than 60 days after documented energization; an outside delivery date at least 12 months after the documented energization date; and an investment-grade parent guarantee. Absent a signed lease, the study credits no rent to that phase.
Competitive Supply
| No. | Campus | Operator | Location | Planned MW | Status and dates | Tenant | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Project Cosmo | AWS | 14684 Industrial Parkway, Marysville | Two buildings, 500,000 square feet | Under construction, 2026 to 2027 | Owner-user | City FAQ; DCD, March 2025 |
| 2 | Fayette County campus | AWS | Jefferson Township, Fayette County | $5 billion plan | Under construction | Owner-user | Fayette County Auditor via WCMH |
| 3 | Beech Road | AWS | Licking County | Part of a $7.8 billion plan | Operating and expanding | Owner-user | Newark Advocate, 2023 |
| 4 | Prometheus | Meta | New Albany | 740 acres; 200 MW behind-the-meter | Operating | Owner-user | OPSB approval, 9 June 2025 |
| 5 | New Albany | New Albany | Not published | Operating; 85 acres added May 2025 | Owner-user | Press, May 2025 | |
| 6 | Hebron | Microsoft | Hebron and Union Township | Six buildings | Announced, phased over about 10 years | Owner-user | Newark Advocate, 2023 |
| 7 | Johnstown | Cologix | 12017 Duncan Plains Road, Johnstown | 800 MW, eight buildings, 2 million square feet | Announced 20 November 2024 | Not published | DCD; POWER, November 2024 |
| 8 | COL5 | Cologix | Lewis Center, Delaware County | 120 MW | Under construction; first 135,000-square-foot phase fall 2026 | Not published | Delaware County RPC, June 2025 |
| 9 | Thomas and Starkey | Not published | Jerome Township | Six and five buildings | Entitled (zoning certificates December 2025) | Not published | Marysville Journal-Tribune, 2 February 2026 |
| 10 | Pataskala | Aligned | Broad and Mink, Pataskala | 200 MW | Denied 25 August 2026 | None | The Reporting Project |
| 11 | Marysville South (subject site of record) | Anadonna LLC | Weaver Road, Marysville | 270 to 800 MW utility request | Entitled; transmission conceptual | Not public | City FAQ; PJM TEAC |
Redundancy, cooling design and asking rent are not published for any campus. Columbus vacancy is 0.1 percent (JLL, 11 August 2026) and less than 1,500 MW remains available across all primary markets (CBRE, 27 August 2026). Two other Central Ohio candidates were screened out: Aligned's 89.4-acre, 200 MW Pataskala site plan, rejected 7-0 by City Council on 25 August 2026, and the AWS sites in Marysville and Fayette County, which are owner-occupied.
Pricing and Rate Positioning
Concluded base rent is $120 per kW-month NNN for an 80 MW deployment, escalating 3 percent a year.
| Benchmark | Rent per kW-month |
|---|---|
| CREFC hyperscale range | $100 to $150 |
| Implied by the Cipher and AWS lease (about $5.5 billion, 15 years, 300 MW; 8-K, 3 November 2025) | About $102 |
| Implied by the Applied Digital and CoreWeave leases (about $11 billion over 400 MW, about 15 years; 8-Ks, 2 June and 28 August 2025) | About $153 |
| Northern Virginia 10 MW-plus asking, H1 2026 | $160 to $185 |
The market shows the NNN-for-lower-headline trade at scale: the $102 Cipher figure and the KBRA Lohrasp Enterprise II 2026-1 collateral, where the tenant pays base rent, operating expenses and electricity (7 July 2026), sit below gross asking rents. The lease is NNN with metered power passed through at cost and no PUE cap, because the tenant bears power; a 15-year term with three 5-year renewal options; rent commencement tied to documented energization plus commissioning; a termination fee equal to unamortized landlord cost plus the tariff exit charge; and an investment-grade parent guarantee. JLL reports most leases carry escalations of 3 percent or more with no concessions. At modeled utilization, base rent is 58.9 percent of revenue and power recovery 34.5 percent, against CREFC's 70 to 80 percent and 15 to 20 percent, because power is passed through at full delivered cost.
Ramp and Occupancy
| Phase | IT MW | Contract MW | Lease executed (condition) | Energization (scenario) | Rent commencement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80 | 100 | By Q2 2027 | 1 May 2031 | 1 July 2031 |
| 2 | 80 | 100 | By Q4 2029 | November 2031 | 1 January 2032 |
| 3 | 80 | 100 | By Q2 2031 | May 2033 | 1 July 2033 |
| Year | Contracted IT MW | Commissioned IT MW (year end) | Utility contract MW (year end) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2031 | 240 | 80 | 200 |
| 2032 | 240 | 160 | 200 |
| 2033 to 2040 | 240 | 240 | 300 |
Phasing
Quarterly timeline, tied to the documented 1 May 2031 transmission in-service date, as a scenario: Q4 2026 to Q2 2027, Phase 1 lease, load study, Phase 1 service agreement and the $59.4 million letter of credit; Q3 2027 to Q4 2028, site work and overpass, transformer and switchgear orders; Q2 2029, Phase 1 vertical start; Q4 2029, Phase 2 start conditioned on its lease and service agreement; Q2 2031, Patina and Weaver in service, Phase 1 energized, Phase 3 start conditioned; Q3 2031 to Q1 2032, Phase 1 rent, Phase 2 energized, Phase 2 rent; Q2 to Q3 2033, Phase 3 energized and in rent; Q1 2034, ABS take-out.
| Single-phase as proposed | Restructured into phases | |
|---|---|---|
| Financing | One $2.396 billion loan for 240 MW | Three tranches of $892.6 million, $752.0 million and $752.0 million |
| Lenders fund | Halls with no lease and no executed utility date | Only leased halls with documented power |
| 2032 coverage | 0.76x (NOI $113.2 million ÷ interest $149.8 million) | 2.21x |
| Coverage during a 12-month transmission delay | 0.00x | Exposure limited to the Phase 1 carry of $55.8 million a year |
| Phase 1 DSCR | Not separable | 2.01x interest-only (CFADS $111,957,000 ÷ $55,786,000); 1.64x amortizing ($111,957,000 ÷ $68,193,000) |
Project Cost Estimate
Location: Marysville South, Weaver Road, Marysville, Union County, Ohio Site: 200 acres of about 600 | Buildings: three halls, about 990,000 square feet | Critical IT load: 240 MW
| Item | Cost | Cost in % | Cost per MW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land | |||
| Acquisition, 200 acres at $341,667 per acre ($205 million ÷ 600 acres) | $68,333,000 | 2.28% | $284,721 |
| Closing, title, ALTA, survey | $1,200,000 | 0.04% | $5,000 |
| Phase I and Phase II ESA | $250,000 | 0.01% | $1,042 |
| Geotechnical | $600,000 | 0.02% | $2,500 |
| Wetlands and species survey | $200,000 | 0.01% | $833 |
| Rezoning and entitlement | $1,500,000 | 0.05% | $6,250 |
| Total Land | $72,083,000 | 2.41% | $300,346 |
| Site and Infrastructure | |||
| Clearing, mass grading, stormwater and detention | $36,000,000 | 1.20% | $150,000 |
| Roads, paving and overpass share | $24,000,000 | 0.80% | $100,000 |
| Water and sewer extension | $12,000,000 | 0.40% | $50,000 |
| Utility interconnection contribution (two 345 kV feeds) | $7,000,000 | 0.23% | $29,167 |
| Substation contribution (Weaver 345 kV) | $25,000,000 | 0.83% | $104,167 |
| On-site 345/34.5 kV customer substation | $54,000,000 | 1.80% | $225,000 |
| Transmission network upgrade allocation reserve | $40,125,000 | 1.34% | $167,188 |
| Fiber entrance, two carriers | $6,000,000 | 0.20% | $25,000 |
| Security perimeter and screening mound | $9,000,000 | 0.30% | $37,500 |
| Total Site and Infrastructure | $213,125,000 | 7.11% | $888,021 |
| Building Shell and Core (990,000 square feet) | |||
| Structure ($180 per square foot) | $178,200,000 | 5.95% | $742,500 |
| Envelope ($70 per square foot) | $69,300,000 | 2.31% | $288,750 |
| Roof ($30 per square foot) | $29,700,000 | 0.99% | $123,750 |
| Administration and loading ($25 per square foot) | $24,750,000 | 0.83% | $103,125 |
| Total Shell and Core ($305 per square foot) | $301,950,000 | 10.08% | $1,258,125 |
| Electrical | |||
| Service entrance and MV switchgear | $132,000,000 | 4.41% | $550,000 |
| Medium-voltage distribution | $84,000,000 | 2.80% | $350,000 |
| Low-voltage switchgear | $96,000,000 | 3.20% | $400,000 |
| UPS and batteries | $216,000,000 | 7.21% | $900,000 |
| PDU and busway | $108,000,000 | 3.61% | $450,000 |
| Generators | $204,000,000 | 6.81% | $850,000 |
| Fuel storage and yard | $28,800,000 | 0.96% | $120,000 |
| ATS | $19,200,000 | 0.64% | $80,000 |
| Lightning and grounding | $7,200,000 | 0.24% | $30,000 |
| Total Electrical | $895,200,000 | 29.88% | $3,730,000 |
| Mechanical | |||
| Air-cooled chillers, closed loop | $180,000,000 | 6.01% | $750,000 |
| CDUs and liquid cooling (premium) | $132,000,000 | 4.41% | $550,000 |
| CRAH and fan walls | $72,000,000 | 2.40% | $300,000 |
| Pumps and piping | $96,000,000 | 3.20% | $400,000 |
| Containment | $14,400,000 | 0.48% | $60,000 |
| Controls | $24,000,000 | 0.80% | $100,000 |
| Total Mechanical | $518,400,000 | 17.31% | $2,160,000 |
| Other Hard | |||
| Fire detection and suppression | $36,000,000 | 1.20% | $150,000 |
| Physical security and access control | $14,400,000 | 0.48% | $60,000 |
| Commissioning, Levels 1 to 5 | $28,800,000 | 0.96% | $120,000 |
| General conditions | $108,000,000 | 3.61% | $450,000 |
| Escalation allowance, 11.3% (5.5% a year for two years) | $239,094,000 | 7.98% | $996,225 |
| Builder's fee, 4% | $94,199,000 | 3.14% | $392,496 |
| Hard cost contingency, 7% | $171,442,000 | 5.72% | $714,342 |
| Total Other Hard | $691,935,000 | 23.10% | $2,883,063 |
| Equipment | |||
| Cabinets and busway accessories | $12,000,000 | 0.40% | $50,000 |
| DCIM and BMS | $9,600,000 | 0.32% | $40,000 |
| Spare parts | $7,200,000 | 0.24% | $30,000 |
| Tooling | $1,200,000 | 0.04% | $5,000 |
| Vehicles | $600,000 | 0.02% | $2,500 |
| NOC fit-out | $3,000,000 | 0.10% | $12,500 |
| Total Equipment | $33,600,000 | 1.12% | $140,000 |
| Financial | |||
| Construction loan origination, 1.0% | $23,966,000 | 0.80% | $99,858 |
| Interest during construction (Phase 1 $61,365,000; Phase 2 $51,697,000; Phase 3 $51,697,000) | $164,759,000 | 5.50% | $686,496 |
| Lender legal and packaging | $4,500,000 | 0.15% | $18,750 |
| Appraisal | $300,000 | 0.01% | $1,250 |
| Feasibility study | $250,000 | 0.01% | $1,042 |
| Insurance consultant and owner's representative | $18,000,000 | 0.60% | $75,000 |
| Builder's risk | $6,600,000 | 0.22% | $27,500 |
| Property tax during construction | $1,800,000 | 0.06% | $7,500 |
| Tariff collateral cash margin (20% of $178,200,000 in letters of credit) | $35,640,000 | 1.19% | $148,500 |
| Utility study deposits and interconnection security | $3,000,000 | 0.10% | $12,500 |
| Working capital reserve | $10,500,000 | 0.35% | $43,750 |
| Total Financial | $269,315,000 | 8.99% | $1,122,146 |
| Total Subject Project Cost | $2,995,608,000 | 100.00% | $12,481,700 |
Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG
The working capital reserve covers two months of unrecovered minimum bill between each phase's energization and rent commencement (3 × 2 × $825,000 = $4,950,000) plus $5,550,000 of non-recoverable landlord cost and pre-stabilization shortfall. The $132,000,000 CDU line is 7.3 percent of the remaining hard base of $1,796,675,000, inside Turner & Townsend's 7 to 10 percent liquid cooling band. Phase 1 carries all of the land and 60 percent of site and infrastructure.
| Phase | MW | Total cost | Per MW | Loan (80%) | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80 | $1,115,724,000 | $13,946,550 | $892,579,000 | $223,145,000 |
| 2 | 80 | $939,942,000 | $11,749,275 | $751,953,000 | $187,989,000 |
| 3 | 80 | $939,942,000 | $11,749,275 | $751,953,000 | $187,989,000 |
| Total | 240 | $2,995,608,000 | $12,481,700 | $2,396,485,000 | $599,123,000 |
Total cost is $12.48 million per MW and hard cost excluding land and financing is $11.06 million per MW. Turner & Townsend's Columbus 2025 figure of $9.8 per watt for a full air-cooled building, escalated one year at 5.5 percent and carrying the liquid premium, reconciles to about $11.2 million per MW, within 1 percent of the subject's hard cost. JLL's 2026 shell and core of $11.3 million per MW excludes AI tenant fit-out of up to $25 million per MW, which the tenant carries under NNN, and the subject's landlord scope matches. CBRE's $14 to $16 million per MW for the most demanding builds sits above the subject because it includes tenant IT fit-out. Cushman & Wakefield's $17.6 million per MW all-in greenfield (range $8.9 to $23.3 million) is a national figure across high-cost markets; the subject sits 29 percent below it on a Central Ohio labor index and a land basis of $285,000 per MW against Cushman's powered-land average of $584,000. Power infrastructure including the substation and interconnection lines is 35.0 percent of cost against Cushman's 21 percent, because the PJM solution requires a customer-funded 345 kV substation.
Loan Assumptions
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| LTC Ratio | 80% |
| Loan | $2,396,485,000 |
| Equity | $599,123,000 |
| Interest Rate | 6.25% (SOFR 3.75% plus 250 basis points; MMCG assumption) |
| Amortization | Interest-only during construction; take-out on a 25-year schedule |
Capital Structure and Take-Out
| Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land | $72,083,000 | $0 | $0 | $72,083,000 |
| Site and infrastructure | $127,875,000 | $42,625,000 | $42,625,000 | $213,125,000 |
| Building systems | $813,695,000 | $813,695,000 | $813,695,000 | $2,441,085,000 |
| Financial (including collateral margin of $11,880,000 per phase) | $102,071,000 | $83,622,000 | $83,622,000 | $269,315,000 |
| Total uses | $1,115,724,000 | $939,942,000 | $939,942,000 | $2,995,608,000 |
| Construction loan | $892,579,000 | $751,953,000 | $751,953,000 | $2,396,485,000 |
| Sponsor equity (10% of equity) | $22,315,000 | $18,799,000 | $18,799,000 | $59,912,000 |
| JV investor equity (90% of equity) | $200,830,000 | $169,190,000 | $169,190,000 | $539,211,000 |
| Standby letters of credit to the utility (contingent) | $59,400,000 | $59,400,000 | $59,400,000 | $178,200,000 |
Construction loan. 80 percent loan-to-cost at SOFR plus 250 basis points (MMCG assumption). JLL's midyear 2026 bands put investment-grade hyperscale tenants at up to 85 percent loan-to-cost at low-200 basis point spreads, and others at 70 to 80 percent and 200 to 300 basis points wider. Pricing sits inside the investment-grade band; leverage is held 5 points below the maximum because the sponsor is unrated and the transmission is conceptual. The preleasing condition is 100 percent per phase, above CREFC's typical 60 percent.
Take-out, on 2034 NOI of $357,556,000. SASB CMBS: value at a 6.50 percent cap rate (Digital Realty's stabilized acquisition above 6.5 percent, 23 July 2026) is $5,500,900,000; 65 to 70 percent LTV gives $3,575,600,000 to $3,850,600,000 at a 10.0 percent debt yield on 65 percent. Single-asset ABS: net cash flow haircut 5 percent to $339,678,000 at an 8.0 percent ABS cap rate gives $4,245,980,000; a 75 to 80 percent advance gives $3,184,500,000 to $3,396,800,000. The chosen path is ABS at $2,600,000,000, 5.875 percent, 25-year schedule, 7-year ARD in 2041, annual constant 7.640 percent, debt service $198,640,000, 61.2 percent of the ABS value and 47.3 percent LTV at the CMBS value. ABS amortization and the ARD match the 15-year lease and the cash trap and amortization triggers protect the senior lender; CMBS offers more proceeds only by taking refinance risk at maturity.
Take-out metrics: DSCR 1.80x on NOI and 1.78x on cash flow available for debt service; debt yield 13.75 percent; minimum thresholds of 1.35x DSCR and a 10.0 percent debt yield; cash trap below 1.45x and rapid amortization below 1.25x, set at the Iskandar and Kaveh levels, above the typical 1.35x and 1.20x. Against the CREFC surveillance flags, the subject at 100 percent utilization and 1.78x is clear of the watch flags (85 percent utilization and 1.25x) and the action flags (75 percent and 1.15x). An agency stressed DSCR is not a covenant: on an illustrative basis with net cash flow down 20 percent to $283.2 million and a 10 percent stressed constant ($260.0 million), the subject shows 1.09x; Fitch's 0.71x on Iskandar and Kaveh is the same kind of figure, and only the 1.45x and 1.25x triggers are contractual.
Operating Expenses
Stabilized first full year, untrended, NNN. The per kW-month and per MW-year columns refer to the campus total.
| Line | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Total | Per kW-month | Per MW-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Property tax net of abatement | $2,470,000 | $2,070,000 | $2,070,000 | $6,610,000 | $2.30 | $27,542 |
| Property, liability and cyber insurance (0.25% of hard replacement cost) | $2,166,700 | $2,166,700 | $2,166,600 | $6,500,000 | $2.26 | $27,083 |
| Payroll and benefits (54 FTE at $135,000) | $2,430,000 | $2,430,000 | $2,430,000 | $7,290,000 | $2.53 | $30,375 |
| Minimum-bill fixed charge (82.5 MW × $10 × 12 per phase) | $9,900,000 | $9,900,000 | $9,900,000 | $29,700,000 | $10.31 | $123,750 |
| Purchased power above the floor | $57,590,000 | $57,590,000 | $57,590,000 | $172,770,000 | $59.99 | $719,875 |
| Water and sewer | $36,500 | $36,500 | $36,500 | $109,500 | $0.04 | $456 |
| Electrical, mechanical, generator and UPS battery maintenance | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $2.08 | $25,000 |
| Repairs | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $1.04 | $12,500 |
| Grounds, janitorial, security | $1,400,000 | $1,400,000 | $1,400,000 | $4,200,000 | $1.46 | $17,500 |
| Letter-of-credit fee, 1.5% | $891,000 | $891,000 | $891,000 | $2,673,000 | $0.93 | $11,138 |
| DCIM and software | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $1,200,000 | $0.42 | $5,000 |
| Administrative and management fee, 2% of base rent | $2,304,000 | $2,304,000 | $2,304,000 | $6,912,000 | $2.40 | $28,800 |
| Ground lease | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0.00 | $0 |
| Gross facility cost | $82,588,200 | $82,188,200 | $82,188,100 | $246,964,500 | $85.75 | $1,029,019 |
| Less tenant recoveries | ($80,545,200) | ($80,145,200) | ($80,145,100) | ($240,835,500) | ($83.62) | ($1,003,481) |
| Landlord net operating expense | $2,043,000 | $2,043,000 | $2,043,000 | $6,129,000 | $2.13 | $25,538 |
| Base rent | $115,200,000 | $115,200,000 | $115,200,000 | $345,600,000 | $120.00 | $1,440,000 |
| Net operating income | $113,157,000 | $113,157,000 | $113,157,000 | $339,471,000 | $117.87 | $1,414,463 |
| Lifecycle reserve | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $3,600,000 | $1.25 | $15,000 |
| Cash flow available for debt service | $111,957,000 | $111,957,000 | $111,957,000 | $335,871,000 | $116.62 | $1,399,463 |
NOI margin is 57.9 percent of total revenue ($586,435,500) and 98.2 percent of base rent. The landlord's net position retains only the letter-of-credit fee and half of the management fee; the tenant reimburses everything else, including the full minimum-bill floor at modeled load. Headcount of 54 sits inside the 20 to 30 per 100 MW benchmark (48 to 72 at 240 MW) and matches the city's at-least-50 jobs figure. A single-tenant hyperscale landlord staffs critical facilities only, because the tenant runs IT operations and often its own facility engineering.
Ten-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage
All figures in $ thousands.
| Year | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commissioned IT MW (year end) | 80 | 160 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 |
| Base rent | 57,600 | 232,128 | 296,692 | 363,193 | 374,089 | 385,312 | 396,871 | 408,778 | 421,040 | 433,672 |
| Letter-of-credit fee | 2,673 | 2,450 | 2,228 | 2,005 | 1,782 | 1,559 | 1,337 | 1,114 | 891 | 668 |
| Asset management, 1% | 576 | 2,321 | 2,967 | 3,632 | 3,741 | 3,853 | 3,969 | 4,088 | 4,210 | 4,337 |
| NOI | 54,351 | 227,357 | 291,497 | 357,556 | 368,566 | 379,900 | 391,565 | 403,576 | 415,939 | 428,667 |
| Lifecycle reserve | 600 | 2,400 | 3,000 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,600 |
| CFADS | 53,751 | 224,957 | 288,497 | 353,956 | 364,966 | 376,300 | 387,965 | 399,976 | 412,339 | 425,067 |
| Minimum-bill floor | 8,250 | 19,800 | 26,400 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 |
| Recovered floor | 4,950 | 19,800 | 24,750 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 | 29,700 |
| Unrecovered floor (reserve-funded) | 3,300 | 0 | 1,650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debt service | 27,893 | 102,783 | 126,281 | 198,640 | 198,640 | 198,640 | 198,640 | 198,640 | 198,640 | 198,640 |
| DSCR (NOI) | 1.95x | 2.21x | 2.31x | 1.80x | 1.86x | 1.91x | 1.97x | 2.03x | 2.09x | 2.16x |
| DSCR (CFADS) | 1.93x | 2.19x | 2.28x | 1.78x | 1.84x | 1.89x | 1.95x | 2.01x | 2.08x | 2.14x |
| Fixed charge coverage ratio | 1.64x | 2.02x | 2.07x | 1.70x | 1.74x | 1.79x | 1.84x | 1.90x | 1.95x | 2.01x |
Debt service in 2031 to 2033 is interest-only construction debt on phases in rent, with interest capitalized until each phase's rent commencement; from 2034 it is the ABS. The fixed charge coverage ratio is (NOI plus recovered floor) ÷ (debt service plus full floor), treating the tariff minimum as a landlord fixed charge. Stabilized yield on cost is 11.9 percent in 2034.
Break-Even Analysis
Stabilized 2034, at $1.5133 million of rent per contracted MW. Each vacant MW carries $0.298 million: the floor share of $0.124 million plus non-power operating cost of $0.174 million.
| Threshold | Contracted MW | Utilization |
|---|---|---|
| NOI break-even | 40.9 | 17.0 percent |
| 1.00x | 153.5 | 64.0 percent |
| 1.15x | 170.1 | 70.9 percent |
| 1.25x | 181.2 | 75.5 percent |
| 1.35x | 192.2 | 80.1 percent |
| 1.45x | 203.3 | 84.7 percent |
The cash trap at 1.45x sits 37 MW under full occupancy. On a single-tenant campus that margin is one lease decision, which is the credit fact the renewal stress tests below.
Sensitivity Analysis
| Case | Result |
|---|---|
| Energization delayed 12 months | $77.1 million of added carry funded by equity; cost $3,072.7 million; stabilized DSCR 1.78x, deferred one year. Single-phase as proposed: 0.00x for 12 months |
| Energization delayed 24 months | $154.2 million of carry plus $91.9 million of Phase 3 escalation; cost $3,241.7 million; loan-to-cost falls to 73.9 percent; triggers the lease outside-date termination right |
| Tenant vacates half its capacity during the minimum-bill term | Rent $181.6 million; unrecovered floor $12.6 million; vacant carrying cost $20.9 million; DSCR 0.71x; cash trap and amortization triggered |
| Rent 10 percent below forecast | DSCR 1.60x |
| Rent 20 percent below forecast | DSCR 1.42x (cash trap) |
| Cost at the Cushman upper range ($23.3 million per MW) | Cost $5,592 million; yield on cost 6.4 percent, below the 6.5 percent cap rate; DSCR 1.04x on a refinanced 80 percent loan; not feasible |
| Interest rate +100 basis points | DSCR 1.62x |
| Interest rate +200 basis points | DSCR 1.49x |
| Uncapped PJM capacity at $554.72 per MW-day | Tenant power cost +$23.5 million a year (+$8.15 per IT kW-month, $101.14 per MWh); landlord DSCR 1.78x unchanged under NNN |
| Cap rate 100 basis points wider at take-out | Value $4,767.4 million; LTV 54.5 percent; ABS balance at ARD $2,203.8 million against a 7.5 percent cap value of $5,887.1 million |
| Renewal stress, S&P 25 percent | DSCR 1.60x |
| Renewal stress, Fitch 30 percent | DSCR 1.50x; ARD LTV 53.5 percent |
| Land and power only (Moody's land-value-only basis) | $20.0 million (Altus Central Ohio low, $100,000 per acre) to $68.3 million (documented price) to $175.2 million (Cushman powered land, $584,000 per MW × 300 MW); recovery 0.8 to 6.7 percent of $2,600 million, before the utility's $89.1 million exit claim |
Risk Factors and Mitigants
- Transmission. The 1 May 2031 in-service date is Conceptual and the 2030 step is already infeasible. Mitigant: no draw before an executed utility agreement with a date; long-lead orders by early 2028; the 12-month delay funded by equity carry.
- Tariff. AES Ohio's data center tariff is pending in 25-0958-EL-AIR, its percentages may differ from the AEP proxy, and the Ohio Manufacturers' Association opposes it. Mitigant: tariff terms as a closing condition; the tenant as customer of record where its rating waives collateral.
- Collateral. $178.2 million of letters of credit if the sponsor is customer of record. Mitigant: the rating waiver, or a co-signing financial sponsor as the tariff permits.
- Tenant contraction. A half-capacity vacate produces 0.71x. Mitigant: an investment-grade parent guarantee, a termination fee covering unamortized cost plus the tariff exit charge, and the 1.45x cash trap.
- Recovery. Collateral recovery is 0.8 to 6.7 percent if the campus goes dark. Mitigant: none in the real estate; the loan is underwritten to the tenant's credit and the lease's protections.
- Local opposition. Ten Ohio communities vote on data center charter amendments in November 2026 and the Logan-Union-Champaign commission recommended prohibited-by-default rules for five Union County townships. Mitigant: the subject city is entitled and unopposed; the risk is to future phases' permitting climate, not the PUD.
- Incentives. The CRA is specific to Anadonna and its assignment is unverified; the Governor's 27 May 2026 directive paused new sales tax exemption requests. Mitigant: CRA assignment consent as a condition; the model credits the exemption only to the extent already awarded.
- Cost. Escalation at 5.5 percent a year and transformer lead times of 128 to above 160 weeks. Mitigant: an 11.3 percent escalation allowance, a 7 percent contingency and early equipment orders.
Conditions and Limitations
The determination of feasible as phased is subject to the following conditions precedent for each phase:
- An executed lease meeting the Phase Conditions: 80 MW committed, a term of 15 years or more, base rent of $120 per kW-month or more NNN with 3 percent escalators, rent commencement within 60 days of documented energization, an outside delivery date at least 12 months after the documented energization date, and an investment-grade parent guarantee.
- An executed utility service agreement and construction agreement stating the phase's energization date and the tariff terms, with the collateral obligation allocated.
- Consent to assignment of the CRA agreement and confirmation of the sales and use tax exemption's status for the sponsor.
- Title, survey, auditor parcel records and the recorded deed for the 200-acre portion.
The following items could not be verified from a primary source at the study date and are disclosed: the utility of record, inferred from PJM need Dayton-2025-008 and not confirmed by the city or the utility; AES Ohio's tariff percentages, the ramp schedule, the sliding-scale percentages and the $10.00 per kW-month demand rate, which are proxies and MMCG assumptions; Union County Auditor parcel identifiers, per-parcel acreage, the exact sale date and the deed, and whether parcel 29-0023077-0000 is part of the site; the adoption date of Ordinance U and the August 2024 PUD ordinance number; the sale price and PILOT ratio, which rest on Columbus Dispatch reporting naming Pamela Gregorski as the listed president and CEO of Anadonna, with the recorded deed not obtained; distance and bearing to the existing Darby and AEP Marysville substations; the ORC 122.175 thresholds, the effect of the 27 May 2026 pause on an assignee of an existing award, and the 1.38 percent effective tax rate from a secondary aggregator; Columbus inventory, absorption and rent series and county demographics; and all behind-the-meter claims absent executed EPC, fuel and O&M contracts.
What the Lender Received
- The written determination with the single-phase and phased financings stated side by side and the Phase Conditions
- The jurisdiction screen and the subject selection rationale, with the Georgia and ERCOT alternatives rejected on stated grounds
- The entitlement chronology with dates and dispositions, and the local posture table for the county and its neighbors
- The tariff abstract, the minimum charge and collateral arithmetic by phase and for the campus, and the energization analysis against the PJM record with every date marked as a scenario
- The delivered power cost build-up including the capped and uncapped PJM capacity price
- The market table, the tenant universe stated by credit class, and the penetration test
- The competitor census of eleven campuses with status and dates
- The rent benchmarks from SEC-filed leases and the lease structure with its lender protections
- The project cost estimate in MMCG's standard format with the phase split and the four-benchmark reconciliation
- The sources and uses by phase, the construction loan and JV terms, and the CMBS and ABS take-out comparison with the chosen path and its triggers
- The operating budget by phase with the landlord's net position under NNN
- The ten-year pro forma with DSCR on NOI and CFADS and the fixed charge coverage ratio, break-even at each threshold and the sensitivity cases including the land-and-power-only recovery
The lender received the City of Marysville Data Center FAQs; PJM TEAC Dayton Supplemental Projects of 3 February 2026 (revised 9 February 2026); AES Ohio Marysville Area Improvement Project materials; the PUCO 24-508-EL-ATA order of 9 July 2025; AEP Ohio's 12 February 2026 load letter; and press reports of the sale and the PILOT. It did not receive an executed lease or LOI, an executed utility service or construction agreement, title, survey, appraisal, auditor parcel records, CRA assignment consent, or the AES Ohio tariff order.
This model study applies the methodology described on MMCG's Data Center Feasibility Study page. MMCG prepares data center feasibility studies for SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA Business and Industry and REAP, and conventional lenders nationwide, with engagements from $4,900 and delivery in 9 to 16 business days.
Sources
- City of Marysville, Ohio, Data Center FAQs, accessed 4 October 2026
- Columbus Dispatch (via Yahoo News), Marysville approves 15-year tax abatement for new $1B data center; Marysville Matters, 6 November 2025; WBNS 10TV, Marysville weighs data center impact on water
- PJM Interconnection, Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee, Dayton Supplemental Projects, 3 February 2026 (revised 9 February 2026), need Dayton-2025-008
- AES Ohio, Marysville Area Improvement Project; Dayton Daily News and ELPC on PUCO Case 25-0958-EL-AIR; Ohio Manufacturers' Association testimony, 18 June 2026
- Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Case 24-508-EL-ATA, order 9 July 2025; AEP Ohio Data Center Tariff page; AEP Ohio letter to PUCO, 12 February 2026; POWER, Utility Dive, Ohio Capital Journal and Power Engineering reporting on the tariff
- PJM, 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report, 22 July 2025
- Ohio Power Siting Board, Socrates South approval, 9 June 2025; FERC Docket EL25-49, order 18 December 2025
- Union County Auditor, Real Estate Assessments; LoopNet listing 24787419, 14900 to 15000 Weaver Road
- Ohio Newsroom (Statehouse News Bureau), As data centers boom in Ohio, local communities are watching their water, 15 October 2025; Licking Township Zoning Commission minutes, 5 February 2026; Marysville Matters on the Logan-Union-Champaign Regional Planning Commission; The Reporting Project and NBC4 on Pataskala; Marysville Journal-Tribune, 2 February 2026
- Georgia Public Service Commission rule reporting (Savannah CEO, Compute Law Blog); Times-Herald and The Citizen on Project Sail, Coweta County, April and May 2026
- CBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026, 27 August 2026; JLL, North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026 and press release, 11 August 2026
- Digital Realty, Second Quarter 2026 Results, 23 July 2026; Cipher Mining, Form 8-K, 3 November 2025; Applied Digital, Forms 8-K, 2 June and 28 August 2025; KBRA presale, Lohrasp Enterprise II 2026-1, 7 July 2026
- CRE Finance Council, Data Center E-Primer, 25 February 2026; S&P Global Ratings, The Four Main Approaches for Rating Data Center Financings, 13 June 2024; Asset Securitization Report on Iskandar and Kaveh, 13 April 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield, 2026 Data Center Development Cost Guide, 3 September 2026; Turner & Townsend, Data Centre Construction Cost Index 2025 to 2026, November 2025; JLL, 2026 Global Data Center Outlook
- Altus Group, Where Value Is Created in Data Center Land, 19 August 2026
- Wood Mackenzie, transformer lead time surveys, Q2 2025 and 2026
- MDPI Fluids, data center water use review, 2026
- Datacentermap, DCD, POWER, Delaware County Regional Planning Commission, Newark Advocate, WCMH and AI Grid Watch listings for the competitor census
- Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, cost data, 2026
