U.S. Seismic Hazard & Earthquake Risk Map

Nine data layers, one screening tool, and an interactive seismic map built for commercial real estate lending decisions. Enter any U.S. address or click directly on the map to receive a complete seismic risk profile: ASCE 7-22 seismic design category, VS30 soil classification, NEHRP site class, liquefaction susceptibility, spectral acceleration parameters, ASTM/UBC seismic zone, estimated Peak Ground Acceleration, and a CRE risk level with lender trigger alerts identifying whether Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or CMBS screening thresholds are exceeded. Generate a downloadable PDF screening report with aerial property imagery.

Market data is sourced from the USGS 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model, the USGS ASCE 7-22 Seismic Design Web Service, the USGS Global Hybrid VS30 Model (Heath et al. 2020), and state geological survey liquefaction databases for California, Washington, Oregon, Indiana, Utah, and South Carolina. Real-time earthquake data refreshes every five minutes from the USGS GeoJSON feed. All outputs update as you interact with the map.

The tool evaluates each location by querying three independent federal data services simultaneously. The USGS ASCE 7-22 web service returns site-specific seismic design parameters including the Seismic Design Category (A through F), short-period design spectral acceleration (SDS), one-second design spectral acceleration (SD1), and the maximum considered earthquake ground motions (SS, S1) that determine structural design requirements under the International Building Code. The USGS VS30 Identify service returns the shear-wave velocity of the upper 30 meters of soil, from which the tool derives NEHRP site class and a liquefaction susceptibility proxy. Where state-level liquefaction zone data is available, it is displayed directly from the relevant geological survey's ArcGIS REST service.

From these inputs, the tool computes two derived metrics. The first is a CRE Risk Level (High, Moderate, or Low) based on SDS and SD1 thresholds aligned with ASCE 7-22 Seismic Design Category boundaries. The second is the estimated ASTM/UBC seismic zone and corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration at the 475-year return period, derived from the MCER short-period spectral acceleration. When the estimated PGA equals or exceeds 0.15g, the tool flags this as an SRA screening trigger with specific context on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and CMBS requirements.

The click-to-query panel displays every metric with an interactive help icon explaining what it means for commercial real estate decisions, and a color-coded safety gradient bar showing where the value falls on the risk spectrum from green (no concern) through yellow (moderate) to red (high risk requiring professional assessment). Each metric's tooltip is written for a CRE deal team, not a seismologist.

Real-time earthquakes display all M2.5+ events from the past seven days as magnitude-scaled, color-coded markers that auto-refresh every five minutes. Historical earthquakes show all M5.0+ events from the past 50 years using clustered markers that expand as you zoom. Quaternary fault lines are rendered from the USGS 2020 Release database, color-coded by most recent rupture age: historic (red), Holocene (orange), late Quaternary (blue), and older Quaternary (gray). These three layers provide the seismotectonic context that surrounds every property query.

The seismic hazard zone overlay displays USGS Peak Ground Acceleration tiles across the entire United States, visualizing the probabilistic ground motion that underlies building code requirements. The VS30 soil classification layer shows the USGS Global Hybrid VS30 mosaic at 30 arc-second resolution, indicating where soft soils will amplify earthquake shaking by factors of two to four compared to bedrock. Six state-specific liquefaction zone layers cover California (CGS Zones of Required Investigation), Washington (DNR Ground Response), Oregon (DOGAMI HazVu), Indiana (Geological Survey), Utah County, and South Carolina (Geological Survey). A property sitting on liquefiable soil faces an entirely different risk calculus than one on competent ground, even at the same PGA.

The critical threshold in commercial real estate lending is Peak Ground Acceleration of 0.15g or greater at the 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, which roughly corresponds to ASTM Seismic Zones 2A through 4. Fannie Mae adopted this PGA-based screening trigger in February 2014, replacing the legacy UBC seismic zone maps. Freddie Mac mirrors the identical threshold. When PGA exceeds 0.15g and structural risk factors are present, a Level 1 Seismic Risk Assessment per ASTM E2026 is required, performed by a licensed Professional Engineer.

The assessment produces a Scenario Expected Loss (SEL) or the legacy Probable Maximum Loss (PML), expressed as a percentage of the building's replacement cost. SEL represents the mean (50th percentile) damage estimate from a 475-year return period earthquake. If SEL is 20% or below, the loan proceeds under standard terms. If SEL exceeds 20%, earthquake insurance becomes mandatory, adding anywhere from $30,000 to $200,000 or more in annual premiums depending on building size, location, and construction type. Properties with SEL above 40% are generally ineligible for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing. Unreinforced masonry buildings without completed seismic retrofits are ineligible regardless of SEL.

CMBS conduit lenders traditionally reference the ASTM E2557 seismic zone map, triggering PML reports in Zones 3 and 4. Most conduits use a 20% PML threshold for earthquake insurance, though individual lender policies range from 15% to 30%. Life insurance company lenders apply similar frameworks. HUD/FHA multifamily programs require seismic reports in Zones 3 and 4 for all new construction and substantial rehabilitation transactions.

This tool identifies whether a property exceeds the 0.15g PGA threshold, which ASTM seismic zone it falls in, and what category of lender requirements that triggers, before any capital is spent on engineering assessments.

PML/SRA report costs vary by assessment level. A Level 0 desktop screening, which applies published FEMA HAZUS or proprietary damage functions to a property's location and structural type without a site visit, typically costs $500 to $1,500. A Level 1 assessment adds a field investigation by a licensed structural engineer who evaluates the building's lateral force-resisting system, identifies structural vulnerabilities, and produces a site-specific SEL estimate; this is the standard for most commercial real estate transactions and ranges from $2,000 to $5,000 or more depending on building complexity. Level 2 detailed computer modeling, using tools such as HAZUS, SP3, or ST-RISK with building-specific inputs, costs $6,000 to $25,000. Level 3 comprehensive analyses involving nonlinear structural simulations can exceed $100,000 for large or complex structures.

The screening tool on this page provides a Level 0 equivalent: it gives a CRE professional the data to determine whether a paid engineering assessment is likely to be required, before engaging an engineer. For properties where PGA is well below 0.15g and the ASTM zone is 0 or 1, the answer is almost certainly no. For properties where PGA exceeds 0.15g and the building has pre-1975 construction or structural risk factors, the answer is almost certainly yes.

SBA's SOP 50 10 8, effective June 1, 2025 , requires new construction financed through SBA 504 and 7(a) programs to comply with NEHRP seismic provisions. Hazard insurance is mandatory on assets securing loans exceeding $50,000, including earthquake coverage where state law or lender policy mandates it. The SOP reinstated mandatory 10% equity injections for startups and acquisitions, tightened citizenship requirements, and returned guarantee fees to statutory maximums.

USDA Business & Industry loans require compliance with local building codes, which in seismic zones incorporate ASCE 7-22 provisions. USDA moved to a tiered guarantee structure for FY2026, raising guarantees on loans under $5 million from 80% to 85%. The 3% upfront guarantee fee on the guaranteed portion remains the program's most significant cost factor. For rural projects in seismic zones, this tool provides immediate screening of whether the property's seismic parameters will affect the lending decision or trigger supplemental insurance requirements.

Not all commercial buildings face equal seismic risk even at the same location. Structural vulnerability depends on construction type, design era, and the specific lateral force-resisting system. The most vulnerable building types in descending order of risk are unreinforced masonry structures built before 1975, non-ductile concrete frames constructed before 1977 (when ductile detailing became standard practice), concrete tilt-up buildings from before 1994 (when connection requirements were strengthened), and soft-story wood-frame structures from before 1978 with weak ground-floor openings such as garage doors or storefronts.

Fannie Mae identifies these construction types as structural risk factors that, when combined with PGA exceeding 0.15g, trigger a mandatory SRA. San Francisco and Los Angeles have both enacted mandatory soft-story retrofit ordinances affecting thousands of buildings. San Francisco's program identified over 5,000 vulnerable wood-frame structures. Los Angeles identified approximately 13,500 buildings under its ordinance and has a separate mandatory retrofit program for non-ductile concrete buildings. These retrofit obligations directly affect property valuation, operating budgets, and lending eligibility.

Seismic hazard parameters are sourced from the USGS 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model (Petersen et al. 2024, Earthquake Spectra, DOI: 10.1177/87552930231215428). Seismic design categories follow ASCE 7-22 procedures for Risk Category II structures with Site Class D default. Shear-wave velocity data comes from the USGS Global Hybrid VS30 Model (Heath et al. 2020, Earthquake Spectra 36(3), 1570-1584), which combines a topographic slope-based proxy with regional measured-data insets at 30 arc-second resolution. Quaternary fault lines are from the USGS 2020 Release. Liquefaction zone data is sourced from the California Geological Survey, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Oregon DOGAMI, Indiana Geological Survey, Utah County GIS, and South Carolina Geological Survey. Aerial imagery is provided by ESRI World Imagery (Maxar/Earthstar Geographics). Real-time earthquake data refreshes from the USGS GeoJSON Summary Feed (M2.5+, 7-day rolling window).

ASTM/UBC seismic zone classification is derived from estimated PGA using the relationship PGA ≈ SS/2.5 and the 1997 UBC Table 16-I Z-factor mapping. The lender screening threshold of PGA at or above 0.15g follows Fannie Mae Multifamily Guide Section 304.01 and Freddie Mac Multifamily Seller/Servicer Guide Chapter 64.

This product uses data from the U.S. Geological Survey and FEMA but is not endorsed by these agencies. This tool is provided for informational and preliminary screening purposes only. It is not a substitute for a site-specific Seismic Risk Assessment or Probable Maximum Loss study conducted by a licensed Professional Engineer in accordance with ASTM E2026 and ASTM E2557. Results should not be used as the sole basis for investment, lending, insurance, or acquisition decisions.

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MMCG Invest, LLC is a commercial real estate feasibility consulting firm specializing in SBA and USDA feasibility studies across asset classes including multifamily , hospitality , gas stations, RV parks, and agritourism. Our analyses serve lenders, investors, and developers seeking institutional-quality market intelligence for underwriting and investment decisions.

Michal Mohelsky, J.D. | Principal | mmcginvest.com

Contact: michal@mmcginvest.com

Phone: (628) 225-1110

SEL (Scenario Expected Loss) represents the 50th percentile (mean) damage estimate from a 475-year earthquake, while SUL (Scenario Upper Loss) represents the 90th percentile (conservative) estimate. Fannie Mae uses SEL as its primary metric. Most lenders trigger earthquake insurance requirements when SEL exceeds 20% of replacement cost. Both replaced the legacy PML terminology under ASTM E2557-16a.

You likely need a PML/SRA report if your property is located where Peak Ground Acceleration exceeds 0.15g (roughly ASTM Seismic Zones 2A through 4) AND the building has structural risk factors such as unreinforced masonry, non-ductile concrete frames, soft-story construction, or pre-1975 design. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CMBS, and life company lenders all have seismic assessment requirements. Use the screening tool above to check your property's PGA and seismic zone.

Peak Ground Acceleration of 0.15g or greater (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) triggers seismic screening requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac multifamily loans. This threshold replaced the legacy UBC seismic zone maps in 2014. When PGA exceeds 0.15g and structural risk factors are present, a Level 1 Seismic Risk Assessment per ASTM E2026 is required.

The 20% threshold is the SEL/PML level at which most commercial lenders require earthquake insurance. If a property's Scenario Expected Loss exceeds 20% of replacement cost, Fannie Mae requires the borrower to obtain earthquake coverage or pursue structural retrofitting. Properties with SEL above 40% are generally ineligible for agency financing. This single metric can add $50,000 to $200,000+ in annual insurance costs to a deal.

Fannie Mae requires a Seismic Risk Assessment per ASTM E2026 when a property's PGA exceeds 0.15g and structural risk factors exist. The assessment must be performed by a licensed Professional Engineer. If SEL is 20% or below, the loan is acceptable. If SEL exceeds 20%, earthquake insurance is required. Unreinforced masonry buildings without completed seismic retrofits are ineligible for Fannie Mae financing.

Costs vary by assessment level. Level 0 desktop screening: $500 to $1,500. Level 1 assessment with site visit (standard for most CRE transactions): $2,000 to $5,000+. Level 2 detailed computer modeling: $6,000 to $25,000. Level 3 comprehensive analysis: $20,000 to $100,000+ for large or complex structures.

ASTM Seismic Zones 3 and 4 (per the 1997 UBC map referenced in ASTM E2557) traditionally trigger PML requirements. This includes all of California, most of Alaska and Hawaii, western Oregon and Washington, western Nevada, the Wasatch Front in Utah, and portions of the New Madrid seismic zone. Modern practice increasingly uses PGA at or above 0.15g as the trigger, which captures additional areas not in the legacy zone boundaries.

Earthquake insurance is not universally required by law but is commonly mandated by lenders when a property's PML or SEL exceeds 20% of replacement cost. Standard commercial property insurance policies exclude earthquake damage. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and most CMBS conduit lenders require earthquake coverage in high-seismic zones when the assessment threshold is exceeded.

Commercial earthquake insurance premiums range from $3 to $15 per $1,000 of coverage, depending on location, construction type, building age, soil conditions, and deductible level. Deductibles are typically 5% to 15% of policy limits. For a $10 million building in a high-seismic zone, annual premiums can range from $30,000 to $150,000. Retrofitting to reduce PML below 20% can eliminate the insurance requirement entirely.

Seismic Design Category (SDC) is a classification from A through F assigned per ASCE 7-22 that determines structural engineering requirements. SDC A represents the lowest seismic risk with minimal design requirements. SDC D through F require special seismic-resistant structural systems, mandatory inspections, and significantly higher construction costs. The category is determined by the site's spectral acceleration values (SDS and SD1) and the building's Risk Category.

VS30 is the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 meters of soil, measured in meters per second. It determines the NEHRP Site Class (A through F), which indicates how much the ground amplifies earthquake shaking. Site Class A (hard rock, VS30 above 1,500 m/s) has minimal amplification, while Site Class E (soft clay, VS30 below 180 m/s) can amplify shaking by 2 to 4 times, increasing design forces and construction costs.

Most vulnerable: unreinforced masonry before 1975, non-ductile concrete frames before 1977, concrete tilt-up before 1994, and soft-story wood-frame before 1978 with weak ground-floor openings. Buildings on liquefiable soils face additional risk. Fannie Mae identifies these construction types as structural risk factors that trigger mandatory seismic risk assessments when PGA exceeds 0.15g.

This tool integrates data from the USGS 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model, ASCE 7-22 seismic design parameters, the USGS Global Hybrid VS30 soil velocity model, state geological survey liquefaction databases, and real-time earthquake feeds. Click any U.S. location to receive seismic design category, soil classification, liquefaction risk, estimated PGA, ASTM seismic zone, and a CRE risk level with lender trigger alerts. Generate a downloadable PDF report with aerial imagery.

USGS 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model (Petersen et al. 2024), USGS ASCE 7-22 Seismic Design Web Service, USGS Global Hybrid VS30 Model (Heath et al. 2020, Earthquake Spectra 36(3)), USGS Quaternary Fault Database (2020 Release), California CGS Liquefaction Zones, Washington DNR Ground Response, Oregon DOGAMI HazVu, Indiana Geological Survey, Utah County GIS, South Carolina Geological Survey, and ESRI World Imagery (Maxar/Earthstar Geographics).

Los Angeles County ranks as the highest-risk region in the United States for estimated annualized earthquake losses. Properties throughout LA fall in ASTM Seismic Zone 4 with PGA well above 0.15g. PML reports are required for virtually all commercial real estate transactions. The city's mandatory soft-story retrofit ordinance identified approximately 13,500 vulnerable buildings. Earthquake insurance is routinely required by all major lenders for LA properties.

Engagements are led by Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute. Feasibility studies are prepared under USPAP discipline, aligned with SBA SOP 50 10 8 for 7(a) and 504 loans and with 7 CFR Part 5001, Subpart D (appendix A for Business and Industry and REAP, appendix B for Community Facilities) for USDA financing. Engagements start at $4,900 with fixed-fee scoping. Standard delivery is 9 to 16 business days, with rush turnaround available from 5 days. A senior analyst responds to proposal requests within 12 business hours from the firm's San Francisco office at 27 Maiden Lane, Suite 625.