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The Tobacco Line: Reading Nicotine Revenue in Fueling Station C-Store Feasibility Studies
The line item used to be predictable. It is not now. For two decades, tobacco sat at twenty to thirty-five percent of c-store inside revenue, declined gently each year, and required no analytical justification beyond a NACS benchmark. Lenders rarely asked questions. Feasibility consultants rarely raised them. That regime ended in 2022. The replacement is a different problem entirely. The category is bifurcating. Regulation is moving state by state in ways that change unit eco
May 610 min read


The Labor Lever: How Automation Is Re-Pricing DSCR in SBA-Financed Special-Purpose Assets
1. Executive Summary Labor is no longer the residual line on a special-purpose pro forma. It is the lever. Across the five asset classes that dominate SBA 7(a), 504, and USDA B&I special-purpose paper, namely limited-service hospitality, express car washes, self-storage, laundromats, and unattended fueling, the operators with the lowest full-time-equivalent count per revenue dollar are not just generating higher EBITDA margins. They are clearing debt-service coverage threshol
May 320 min read


Demand Analysis in Feasibility Studies: How AADT, Capture, and Mobility Data Drive the Forecast
How institutional demand analysis is constructed for traffic-driven retail under SBA SOP 50 10 8 and USDA 7 CFR 5001, illustrated through gas stations, express car washes, and truck stops. The number that everything else hinges on In every feasibility study, one number propagates through the entire model. Capture rate. Whether the project services its debt depends on whether the analyst can defend that single figure to an SBA underwriter or USDA reviewer. Demand analysis is t
Apr 2916 min read


US Fuel Prices Are Surging Amid the Iran War — and the Worst May Not Be Over
Ten days ago, a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States cost $2.94. As of March 8, the AAA national average stands at $3.45 — a 17 percent increase that materialized in a single week, the steepest seven-day escalation since the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In California, drivers are paying $5.16. In Michigan, prices vaulted 56 cents in seven days. And these figures, alarming as they are, almost certainly understate the magnitude of what is unfolding:
Mar 917 min read
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