Model Case: Ozarks Reservoir Concession Marina Acquisition and 50-Slip Expansion, Table Rock Lake, Stone County, Missouri, USDA Business and Industry Guarantee

A model feasibility case built only from public data. The marina, seller and buyer are hypothetical; no client file or engagement data is used. The case follows the house format with the changes a concession on federal land requires: at a glance, determination, program eligibility with the lease read against the loan, the lease and the lake, market analysis, sources and uses, operating assumptions, historical cash flow and the lender's DSCR, ten-year pro forma, DSCR by year, break-even, sensitivities including the high-water and storm years, collateral and conditions. Figures are as of October 9, 2026. Part of the marina feasibility study cluster; format detail on the lake and river marina feasibility study and marina acquisition feasibility study pages, program detail on the USDA feasibility study page and the USDA feasibility regulatory spine, and the state frame on the Missouri feasibility study page.

The acquisition cannot be guaranteed as proposed. Three rules stop it before the arithmetic does. The Corps concession lease has 12 years to run and the loan is written for 30; 7 CFR 5001.105(b)(14) requires a lease term at least equal to the loan term, and the lender cannot submit the application until the Corps extends or renews the lease. The sponsor brings 10 percent; 7 CFR 5001.105(d) requires 20 percent for a new business, which a change of ownership creates, and 25 percent where the guarantee issues before the expansion is complete. And the sponsor's pro forma carries the Corps rent at the first-year rate of 2.0 percent of gross for the whole term, when the Corps schedule the GAO described in 2024 graduates from 2.0 to 4.6 percent of prior-year gross receipts, fuel included. On the seller's pro forma, $7.50 per foot at 97 percent, 14 rental boats at 100 days a season and fuel up 14 percent, the proposed loan covers 1.74x in year 1 and 1.94x in year 3, and that is the number the seller will quote. On the study's revenue, $7.00 per foot at 93 percent, rentals at 80 days and the seller's own cost lines, the same loan covers 1.20x in year 1 and 1.36x in year 3; on the seller's historical EBITDA it covers 0.83x. The proposed structure is a loan on a forecast, and B&I underwriting does not accept one.

The acquisition is feasible as restructured, subject to the conditions at the end of this page, and the restructure is four things. A price: $3,260,000, the price at which the first full year after the expansion covers 1.25x on the study's revenue, against an ask of $4,250,000. A lease: the Corps extends or renews the concession lease to at least 25 years, approves the change of control, and consents to a leasehold mortgage with lender notice and cure rights, all before commitment, and the loan is written for 25 years inside that term. A budget: the 50 new covered slips at $25,000 a slip pending two Ozarks dock builder bids, $300,000 of encapsulated flotation retrofit and cable renewal on the existing docks, which the Little Rock District requires as flotation wears and which the Shell Knob storm of July 29, 2025 showed the lake can take in a night, a $100,000 fuel system upgrade, and a feasibility study, leasehold appraisal, Phase I and dock survey in place of the sponsor's $20,000 of diligence. And a cost structure: rent on all gross receipts at an effective 3.0 percent, a 2.5 percent dock and flotation reserve to a controlled account on the Paintsville precedent, a rental fleet replacement reserve, insurance at $5 million of liability plus an umbrella and docks at replacement cost, and a $250,000 lake-level and storm reserve funded outside the loan. Total cost is $5,592,350, the guaranteed loan $4,006,762 and debt service $387,162. The marina covers 1.12x in year 1 while the new slips fill, 1.25x in year 2, 1.29x in year 3 and 1.59x in year 10, and holds 1.15x down to revenue 3.4 percent below plan.

Two warnings go with the determination. The cushion is thin by construction, because the price was solved to the floor, and a marina on a reservoir does not earn a steady year: the 2011 analog, a high-water season with docks moved, parking flooded and rentals and fuel down a quarter, takes the restructured marina to 0.61x at stabilization, and a storm year with a deductible and repairs takes it to 0.44x. Those are single seasons, and the $250,000 reserve is sized to carry one of them; the lender should expect to see it drawn. And the rent is not the lender's to set: the Corps District Engineer can review rates and require reductions, the Corps began a process in March 2025 to review the graduated rental rates, and at the schedule's 4.6 percent top rate year-3 coverage falls from 1.29x to 1.18x.

No executed Corps commercial concession lease for a Table Rock marina is in the public record, and ER 405-1-12 is not public, so the study reads the two public instruments that sit beneath Corps prime leases and treats the subject's lease as a document to be obtained before anything is sized. The Holiday Island Marina sublease on the Arkansas side of Table Rock requires Corps approval of any transfer of a controlling interest including mergers and reorganizations, gives the District Engineer the right to review rates and prices and require an increase or reduction, requires return of the premises in good condition with abandoned property forfeited, sets $1,000,000 of liability cover, puts state and local taxes on the lessee, sets minimum hours of 72 a week from Memorial Day to Labor Day, has the operator move docks within the 909 to 917 foot range, and lets either party terminate on 30 days' notice if high or low lake levels make operation impracticable. The Paintsville Lake, Kentucky RFP of 2021 sits on a 50-year prime lease from 1984, sets rent at a minimum of 5 percent of gross, requires $5 million of liability cover plus a $5 million umbrella and property at replacement cost with the Corps as additional insured, escrows 2.5 percent of gross to $50,000 for the docks, requires an annual CPA audit within three months of year-end, and bars assignment, subletting or mortgage without written consent with no lender protection clause. The model carries the stricter of the two on every point.

Rent on a Corps concession is a graduated percentage of prior-year gross receipts, fuel included, which GAO's 2024 report puts at 2.0 to 4.6 percent, with the first lease year at the bottom rate; the schedule dates from 1994, the Corps implemented a review process in March 2025, and the MARINA Act, H.R. 7248 in the 119th Congress, would extend initial lease terms to 50 years and cap the low-margin sales that count toward rent, but it is a proposal. The model carries an effective 3.0 percent and tests 4.6 percent. Term is the credit: Oregon parks officials described a Corps-related marina lease as held for two 20-year periods, the maximum, Lake Cumberland's new marina lease in 2017 marked the end of a long process, and the Fort Worth District's 2025 Stillhouse Hollow solicitation ran from an August notice to October proposals before a lease was executed; the model carries 6 to 12 months for Corps consent as an assumption. The 2020 Table Rock Shoreline Management Plan sets the other constraint: a combined total of 30,806 boat slips and launching ramp parking spaces may be placed on the lake, marina buffer areas cover 10.1 percent of the shoreline and limit private docks near commercial marinas, and commercial remote service docks inside those buffers are the path to expansion, so the 50 new slips need Corps approval under the lakewide ceiling.

The lake itself is the physical case. Conservation pool tops at 915 feet, 917 seasonally from May to November, the flood pool at 931 and the surcharge pool at 936; the record crest was 935.47 feet on April 27, 2011, and December 2015 reached 933.22. The February 2012 Branson tornado destroyed four large docks at Port of Kimberling Marina and damaged about 150 vessels, a July 2025 storm at Shell Knob flipped a dock and broke cables on at least seven others, and a 56-knot gust damaged a marina dock on Beaver Lake in March 2024. The Little Rock District requires encapsulated flotation on new commercial docks and replacement of existing flotation as it wears. The restructure budgets the retrofit, carries a 2.5 percent dock and flotation reserve, insures the docks at replacement cost with business interruption, and funds a $250,000 reserve outside the loan for the season the lake takes.

The lake. Table Rock has the deepest public record of any Ozarks Corps lake: the 2020 Shoreline Management Plan counts 15 commercial concessionaires with 4,375 wet and 380 dry slips, 86 resort leases with 1,701 wet slips and 13,356 private slips; the Corps reports more than 2 million visitors a year and the third-highest fee collections among its projects; Table Rock State Park drew 1,163,479 visitors in 2023. Bull Shoals has 11 concessionaires with 1,355 stalls, Beaver has 7 with 1,750 rental slips and 3.1 million visitors but sits nearer the Northwest Arkansas metro, where rural eligibility is less certain. The Corps' list of Table Rock marinas names Baxter, Big M, Campbell Point, Cape Fair, Cricket Creek, Eagle Rock, The Harbor, Hideaway, Holiday Island, Indian Point, Kings River, Long Creek, Port of Kimberling, Table Rock Marina at Rock Lane and the State Park Marina. The market has consolidated: TopSide Marinas bought Cape Fair and Hideaway (450 wet slips, 20 rental boats, 29 acres) in 2023 and Campbell Point (more than 280 wet slips, adding 50 in 2026) in March 2026, and Kings River (192 wet slips to 60 feet, a 3,200 SF restaurant) went to Mongo Holdings with Keel Funds in November 2023; none of the three disclosed a price. Resorts on Corps lakes may rent boats and slips only to registered guests, concession customers are exempt from Corps user fees, and the Little Rock District's commercial zone rule lets concessionaires restrict fuel, store and storage docks to commercial activity. Existing concession slips are scarce and protected, which is the case for buying one rather than building one.

The competitive set (posted rates, marketing sources). State Park Marina: over 650 slips (630 slips and 70 rental boats in 2007, up from 210 slips and 5 boats at takeover), covered slips from 10 by 24 to 22 by 96 feet, transient $40 a night, a 12-pump fuel dock, store, dive shop and pizza. The Harbor: 210 slips to 50 feet. Cape Fair and Hideaway: 450 slips combined, all covered at Cape Fair, which reports it is full, nightly $35 peak and $25 off-season, annual contracts requiring vessel liability insurance. Campbell Point: more than 280 slips from 24 to 80 feet, a 25-foot Harris tritoon at $549 for six hours, $649 for eight and $1,249 for two days, fuel, retail and an ice cream shop, with availability. Holiday Island: 180 slips, 171 annual and 8 covered nightly, pontoons at $275 to $350 for a half day and $450 to $525 for a full day. Baxter: tritoons at $665 to $765 for 22 hours and fishing barges at $565, the largest pontoon fleet in the area by its own account. Chateau on the Lake: 2023 and 2024 model-year ski boats and tritoons at $459 for three hours, $699 for eight and $729 all day. Alpine Lodge: bass boats at $250 for eight hours. Posted covered slip rates run $4.80 to $7.86 per foot per month. No Ozarks marina publishes occupancy, rental utilization, fuel gallons or a revenue mix, and the study's engagement version replaces each with the seller's records and a dated rate survey.

The seller's pro forma runs $7.50 per foot at 97 percent, 100 rental days at a $625 average, fuel at $800,000 and the store at $320,000, $2,823,400 in all, 16.8 percent above the study. The ramp is 97.5 percent in year 1, with the 50 new slips, 20 percent of slip revenue, filling over the first season, and stabilized from year 2; prices and costs escalate 3 percent a year, held low because the District Engineer can require rate reductions.

The seller's $425,000 is before a fleet replacement reserve, a dock and flotation reserve, the Paintsville insurance standard and rent above the first-year rate, which together add about $180,000 a year to the study's statement; the restructured projection reaches $432,946 in year 1 only because the 50 new slips add $125,000 of slip revenue at 93 percent and the fuel and store lines grow with them. The B&I test is not the Appendix 15 historical test, and the feasibility study may carry the expansion; the lender should still see that the business as the seller ran it covers the restructured debt at 1.07x and the proposed debt at 0.83x, and the Corps gross receipts reports are the reconciliation that the Appendix 15 cash proof is elsewhere.

The proposed column is the seller's pro forma, and the gap between its $961,544 and the study's $499,353 in year 3 is $462,191, of which about $287,000 is revenue (rate, occupancy and rental days) and about $175,000 is the cost lines the sponsor left out: rent above 2.0 percent, the fleet and dock reserves, the Paintsville insurance standard and a full-season payroll. The proposed structure on the study's revenue with the sponsor's cost lines covers 1.36x in year 3; on the study's cost lines it covers 0.87x in year 1 and 1.01x in year 3.

On the stabilized year-3 statement with all six streams scaled and the fixed lines held, the restructured marina covers debt service at $2,247,657 of revenue in year-1 dollars (7.0 percent below plan), reaches 1.15x at $2,335,295 (3.4 percent below) and 1.25x at $2,393,721 (1.0 percent below). As proposed, on the seller's pro forma, break-even is $2,163,309, 1.15x is $2,268,432 and 1.25x is $2,338,514, 17 to 23 percent below the seller's plan and 3 to 11 percent below the study's revenue, which is why the seller's structure looks safe on the seller's numbers and is not. A buyer who wants a cushion pays less: each $100,000 off the price takes about $7,500 off annual debt service.

All rows start from the restructured base unless labeled otherwise.

The rental fleet is the binding variable, ahead of the slip rate: 20 fewer rental days a season take the restructured marina to 0.86x at stabilization, and the rental business is bought one day at a time from visitors whose season the weather and the fuel price set. The slip rate decides the second tier, $6.00 giving 1.06x and $7.86 giving 1.48x, and the fixed lines the third. The structure rows all land near 1.20x, which says the lease term, the rate and the equity tier move coverage by a tenth and the revenue lines move it by a half. The two event rows are not forecasts; they are the seasons the lake has produced in 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2025, and the restructure funds one of them.

The rent scale is tested outside the table because it is a single line: at the schedule's 4.6 percent top rate the rent rises by 1.6 points of gross, $41,026 in year 3, and coverage falls from 1.29x to 1.18x.

No Table Rock concession sale has a public price: TopSide's 2023 and 2026 purchases and the Kings River sale were undisclosed, a Bull Shoals marina on 4.35 acres is listed at $3,600,000 without a slip count, and the only audited-scale public operating figure for a Corps concession is Paintsville's back-calculated gross of about $283,000 in 2019 on 168 slips, a small rural lake well below Table Rock. On the income approach the restructured price of $3,260,000 is 7.7 times the seller's FY2025 EBITDA and the project as a whole, $5,342,350, capitalizes the second-year EBITDA of $484,809 at 9.1 percent; Mears Point's reported $1 million of in-place net operating income on 540 Chesapeake slips, about $1,850 a slip, brackets the subject's $1,939 a slip at stabilization. The leasehold appraisal under 7 CFR 5001.203 values the concession interest only through the lease term and strips going-concern value before the lender discounts the collateral, and on a federal lease where the docks are removed or forfeited at expiration and the land and water are never the borrower's, the discounted collateral is the docks at depreciated replacement cost, the titled rental fleet on its own shorter life, the store inventory and the equipment, which will not reach the $4,006,762 loan. That is what the 85 percent guarantee is for, and the study says so rather than pretending the leasehold is worth the price.

Prepared by Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA, Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute. Model case aligned with 7 CFR Part 5001 and USDA OneRD guidance, under USPAP discipline. MMCG Invest, LLC, 27 Maiden Lane, Suite 625, San Francisco, CA 94108.