A model feasibility case built only from public data. The yard, borrower and expansion are hypothetical; no client file or engagement data is used. The case follows the house format with the changes an expansion of an existing business requires: at a glance, determination, program eligibility with the marina characterization read first, site and regulatory pathway, market analysis, full cost table, operating assumptions, historical cash flow and the lender's DSCR, ten-year pro forma, DSCR by year, break-even, sensitivities, collateral and conditions. Figures are as of October 9, 2026. Part of the marina feasibility study cluster; format detail on the boatyard and service yard feasibility study page, program detail on the SBA 504 feasibility study and SBA 7(a) feasibility study pages and the SBA underwriting and regulatory spine, and the state frame on the Michigan feasibility study page.
At a glance
| Item | As proposed | As restructured |
|---|---|---|
| Subject | Existing full-service yard on Lake St. Clair in Harrison Township: 135 seasonal wells to 35 feet, 24,000 SF of heated storage, outside storage for 150 boats, a 35-ton lift, a service shop; owner-operated for 22 years; fee land, free of debt | Same yard, expanded |
| Expansion | New 75-ton travel lift, lift well with pile-supported piers, 60,000 SF hardstand, 12,000 SF heated service building with two 70-foot bays, site work | Same program with a closed-loop wash-water system, stormwater diversion in the paving and a 10 percent contingency |
| Lift | Used 2004 unit at $290,000 | New variable-width unit at $1,050,000 on a dealer quote, checked against the MARAD-derived floor of about $1,000,000 |
| Program | One SBA 504 debenture, 25 years, carrying the lift; 10 percent contribution | SBA 504 on the building, lift well, hardstand, wash system and site (25-year debenture, 15 percent contribution); SBA 7(a) on the lift, 10 years at 10.00 percent, 10 percent injection; lift described in the mortgage and a UCC fixture filing |
| 504 project | $3,533,810 | $3,606,778 (real estate piece); $1,113,911 on the 7(a); $4,720,688 in all |
| Total project cost | $3,533,810 | $4,845,688, including a $125,000 first-season reserve outside the project |
| Debt | $3,180,429 (bank $1,766,905, debenture $1,413,524) | $4,068,281 (bank $1,803,389, debenture $1,262,372, 7(a) $1,002,520) |
| Borrower equity | $353,381 (10.0 percent) | $777,408 (16.0 percent): $541,017 contribution, $111,391 injection, $125,000 reserve |
| Revenue basis | Sponsor pro forma: six technicians at 1,500 billed hours at $140 | Five technicians at 1,400 billed hours at $115; storage and dockage at posted Lake St. Clair rates |
| Stabilized revenue (year 3) | $3,278,325 | $2,554,261 |
| Stabilized EBITDA (year 3) | $1,226,433 (37.4 percent) | $700,279 (27.4 percent) |
| Annual debt service | $272,817 | $422,177 |
| Historical DSCR on the existing yard, FY2025 / two-year average | 1.06x / 1.02x | 0.69x / 0.66x |
| Projected DSCR, year 1 / year 2 / year 3 / year 10 | 2.94x / 3.80x / 4.50x / 5.53x | 0.96x / 1.34x / 1.66x / 2.04x |
| Revenue at 1.15x (stabilized, year-1 dollars) | $2,001,069, 35.2 percent below the sponsor's plan | $2,157,046, 10.4 percent below plan |
| Transient rule | Untested; seasonal dockage is 10.7 percent of revenue and transient dockage 1.0 percent | Fails if the yard is a marina for SOP Paragraph E.3; SBA's written reading that a repair and storage yard is not one is the gating condition |
| Determination | Not supportable as proposed: the budget is not the project and the eligibility is untested | Feasible as restructured, subject to the characterization ruling and the conditions at the end of this page |
Determination
The expansion is not supportable as proposed, and the reason is not the arithmetic. On the sponsor's pro forma the single debenture covers 2.94x in year 1 and 4.50x at stabilization, and on the study's revenue it still covers 1.36x and 2.40x. The budget is the problem. It prices a 2004 travel lift at $290,000 where the two 75-ton lifts MARAD funded in FY2026 imply projects of at least $1,000,000 to $1,017,868 at the program's 75 percent cost-share cap; it paves a hardstand without a wash pad, a sump or stormwater diversion, when EGLE's industrial stormwater general permit does not authorize the discharge of wash water and names a closed-loop system, a holding tank, a treatment-plant connection or an individual permit as the only lawful routes; it carries a 5 percent contingency on pier and building work for which no Michigan public bid exists; it blends the lift, a ten-year asset, into a 25-year debenture; it brings 10 percent where marinas sit on SBA's special-purpose list at 15; and it assumes the marina transient rule is a box to tick, when a Great Lakes yard that earns a tenth of its revenue from seasonal wells fails that rule on its face and can be financed under 504 only if SBA reads a repair and storage yard as something other than a marina. The sponsor's structure would fund a compliance liability with a lift that will not lift what the market brings.
The expansion is feasible as restructured, subject to the conditions at the end of this page, and the first condition is SBA's written reading of the characterization. The restructure keeps the building, the well, the hardstand and the site and prices them as the public record prices them: $1,500,000 for the 12,000 SF heated building at $125 per SF, $650,000 for the lift well piers and dredged approach, $500,000 for the hardstand regraded and curbed to divert stormwater, $50,000 for the closed-loop wash system, $200,000 of site work, design at 7 percent and a 10 percent contingency, $3,478,000 before interest and fees, on a 25-year 504 debenture at the 15 percent contribution. It buys the lift new at $1,050,000 on a dealer quote and puts it on a ten-year 7(a) as the equipment it is, described in the mortgage and in a UCC fixture filing because Michigan law on whether a travel lift is a fixture was not found. It funds a $125,000 first-season reserve outside the project. Total cost is $4,845,688, debt $4,068,281 and debt service $422,177, of which $263,196 is the real estate and $158,980 the lift. On five technicians at 1,400 billed hours at $115, with the existing storage and dockage at posted rates, the yard covers 0.96x in year 1 while the big-boat service book builds, 1.34x in year 2, 1.66x in year 3 and 2.04x in year 10, and holds 1.15x down to revenue 10.4 percent below plan.
Two warnings go with the determination. The service book is the case: labor and parts are half of stabilized revenue and the least documented lines in the public record, since no Michigan yard posts a billed rate, and at $100 an hour or 1,200 billed hours the yard covers 1.41x and 1.34x at stabilization but 0.77x and 0.72x in year 1, which is what the reserve and the ramp conditions are for. And the eligibility is a reading, not a rule. SBA Form 2234 asks whether a marina earns 50 percent or more of its gross annual income from transients staying no more than 30 days and says a "No" makes the loan ineligible; the SOP's text says more than 50 percent; neither says what a marina is. The yard's revenue is 50 percent service and parts, 19 percent storage, 17 percent haul and shrink wrap, 11 percent seasonal wells and 1 percent transient. If SBA reads it as a marina the 504 is not available and the conventional or USDA route is the structure; the study models the 504 because that is the sponsor's question, and conditions it on the answer.
Program eligibility check
| Test | Provision | Evidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marina characterization (transient rule) | SOP 50 10 8, Section A, Chapter 1, Paragraph E.3, carried into SOP 50 10 8.1 effective October 1, 2026: a marina is eligible only if more than 50 percent of prior-year revenue comes from transients staying 30 days or less; SBA Form 2234 reads 50 percent or more; neither defines a marina | FY2025 revenue: service and parts 50.2 percent, storage 18.6 percent, haul and shrink wrap 16.9 percent, seasonal wells 10.7 percent, transient 1.0 percent, store 2.5 percent | Fails if the yard is a marina; gating condition, SBA's written reading through the CDC that a boat repair and storage business with incidental seasonal wells is not a marina for Paragraph E.3 |
| Eligible use | SOP 50 10 8, Section A, Chapter 3, Paragraph A.1: land, buildings, construction, and equipment with a useful life of at least 10 years | Building, well, hardstand, wash system and site on the 504; lift on the 7(a) | Met |
| Occupancy | 13 CFR 120.131: 51 percent of an existing building, 60 percent for new construction; SOP Paragraph C.1 counts boat slips and docks as Rentable Property | The operating company runs the building, the well and every well and storage space; seasonal tenants are customers, not lessees | Met; owner-occupancy analysis with the wells treated as rentable property is a condition |
| Contribution | 13 CFR 120.910: 15 percent for a limited or single-purpose property; marinas are on the SOP's special-purpose list; the yard has operated 22 years, so the new-business 5 percent does not apply | Existing business on a special-purpose property | 15 percent on the 504; 10 percent shown as a sensitivity if the CDC rules the yard multipurpose |
| Maturity | 25-year debenture where real estate is 51 percent or more of proceeds; 10 years on equipment | Real estate 77 percent of the pre-fee project; the lift on its own 10-year term | 25 years on the 504; 10 years on the 7(a); 20-year 504 case in the sensitivities |
| 7(a) on the lift | 7(a) proceeds for equipment; 10-year term on a ten-year asset; combined 7(a) and 504 limit $10 million where the 7(a) is approved first (Procedural Notice 5000-879058) | $1,002,520 at the 10.00 percent cap; FY2027 fee 3.5 percent of the guaranteed portion, $26,316 financed | Modeled |
| Debenture pricing and fees | October 8, 2026 sale: 25-year effective rate 6.97 percent; FY2027 504 fees 0.50 percent upfront, 0.203 percent annual; rural waiver not available in Macomb County | Modeled at 2.17 percent of the debenture with CDC fees plus 1.0 percent bank origination | Conservative |
| Job opportunity | One job per $95,000 of debenture or a community development or public policy goal | $1,262,372 debenture requires 13.3 jobs; the yard employs 13 full-time and about four seasonal after the expansion, 17 in all | Met |
| DSCR floor | 1.15x on the 504; 1.25x historical is not required on an expansion | 0.96x in year 1, 1.34x in year 2, 1.66x in year 3; 0.66x on the existing yard's two-year average EBITDA | Met from year 2; the reserve carries year 1 |
| Environmental | SOP 50 10 8, Appendix 6: NAICS 71393 requires a Phase I regardless of amount; boat repair with hull sanding, painting and fluid changes | 22 years of yard operations; historic wash-pad and sanding areas | Phase I; Phase II if the wash pad or sanding areas show recognized conditions |
| Industrial stormwater | EGLE Guidance for Marinas (rev. March 2022): marinas under SIC 4493 doing maintenance, washing, painting, fluid changes or fueling with a stormwater discharge need NPDES coverage under the industrial stormwater general permit; the permit does not authorize wash-water discharge; outdoor winterizing is exposure | Certificate of coverage, SWPPP, certified operator and a lawful wash-water route before the first draw | Condition |
| Bottomlands and permits | EGLE and USACE joint permit through MiEnviro (Parts 301, 303 and 325, Sections 10 and 404); Great Lakes bottomlands conveyance for the lift well piers, term longer than the debenture and assignable | Individual permit, $500 base or $2,000 if major, $100 USACE; 90 to 180 days | Condition |
| Flood insurance and CBRS | NFIP available on the upland buildings; docks and lift-well piers excluded; CBRS units exist on the Great Lakes | Parcel screened on the CBRS mapper | Condition |
| Size standard | 13 CFR 121.201: NAICS 713930 marinas, $11.0 million, or NAICS 811490 other personal and household goods repair if the CDC classifies the yard as a repair business; 504 alternative standard in 121.301(b) | Revenue about $2.6 million | Within standard either way |
USDA Business and Industry does not apply inside the Detroit urbanized area. A conventional equipment loan on the lift at a bank's terms, without the 7(a) fee, was considered and is the fallback for the lift piece if SBA declines the characterization; the real estate piece has no SBA fallback other than a conventional mortgage.
Site and regulatory pathway
Macomb County reports more than 16,000 boat slips along its waterways, concentrated in Harrison Township, St. Clair Shores, Chesterfield Township and New Baltimore; the county Sheriff's Marine Division counts 26 marinas and ten public access sites on its 85 square miles of Lake St. Clair and more than 30 miles of shoreline; and the Michigan Boating Industries Association ranks Oakland, Wayne and Macomb as the state's top three counties for boat registrations, with many Oakland and Wayne boats kept at Macomb marinas. Michigan's registered fleet is shrinking slowly, from 953,554 in 2003 to 815,317 in 2023 and 795,494 in 2024, while spending rises: NMMA puts Michigan boating at $11.7 billion and 45,000 jobs, up 82 and 45 percent since 2018. The thesis for a service yard is a fixed-to-declining fleet that is aging and growing larger and produces more service hours per boat, not a growing boat count. The Secretary of State does not publish county or length-class counts; the trend by class is a bulk record purchase, flagged.
The model fixes the township and the yard type, not the address: an existing yard on fee land in Harrison Township with a 24,000 SF heated building, 135 wells and a 35-ton lift that cannot haul the 40-foot to 70-foot boats the Lake St. Clair market now keeps. The lift well's two pile-supported piers go onto Great Lakes bottomlands and need a single EGLE and USACE joint permit through MiEnviro, an individual permit at $500 ($2,000 if the piers reach 300 feet or the dredging 10,000 cubic yards) plus $100 for the Corps, with a completeness review of 0 to 45 days, a technical review of up to 90 days and a 20-day public notice, and a separate bottomlands conveyance with an annual fee; the model carries 90 to 180 days and a Detroit District regional condition set that was not retrieved. The hardstand and the wash pad are EGLE's business: the yard files for coverage under the industrial stormwater general permit with a SWPPP and a certified operator, winterizes indoors because outdoor winterizing is exposure while stored winterized boats are not, and routes wash water to the closed-loop system because the permit does not authorize its discharge and fines run to $25,000 a day. Lake levels set the engineering: Lake Michigan-Huron's record low of 576.02 feet in January 2013 and the 1986 high of 582.3 feet, exceeded in May 2020, are 6.28 feet apart and were six years apart, Lake St. Clair averages 10 feet deep, and the June 2026 bulletin had Michigan-Huron at 579.40 and St. Clair at 575.23 feet; the well is designed across the full range and the low-water year is a sensitivity. Property tax is modeled at $55,000 on taxable value at half of true cash value under Harrison Township's millage, with the treatment of the piers and the lift flagged.
Market analysis
The competitive set. Keenan Marina in Harrison Township is the only local yard that posts rates: indoor heated storage at $10.00 per square foot of length by beam, outside at $3.50, 24,000 SF of heated space and 100 slips to 35 feet. Beacon Cove Marina in Harrison Township has 577 wells to 50 feet and 145 indoor racks to 32 feet, rates by inquiry. Lake St. Clair Metropark's marina, a public operator, lists 265 slips. Michigan DNR state harbors post 2026 seasonal slip rates of $770 to $2,420 for a 20-foot slip across ten tiers, $38.50 to $121 per foot. The best posted yard sheets are from West Michigan and Wisconsin: Torresen Marine in Muskegon at $8.95 heated and $6.50 cold per square foot including haul, wash and launch, $8 per foot to haul or launch to 40 feet and $12 over, $2 per foot bottom cleaning; Manitowoc Marina at $10.25 heated and a 1 percent environmental fee. Shrink wrap clusters at $13 to $20 per foot across Outdoor Equipment Co., Aussie Watersports, Spicer's and others. No Michigan yard posts a billed labor rate; the out-of-region record runs $110 at Monterey Bay Boatworks, $120 at Angler Marine, $150 at Barber Marina and $170 at Liberty Landing. Northern yards haul 40 boats a week from mid-September to the end of October at Sunnyside and 8 to 10 a day at Washburn, storage runs from September 1 or 15 to Memorial Day or June 15, and heated bays are what sells winter work.
What the record says. Inside heated storage is priced consistently across the Great Lakes, $8.95 to $10.25 per square foot, and Keenan's $10.00 sits inside the band; that is the most dependable revenue input. Labor and parts are the largest lines and the least documented, which makes them the sensitivity drivers, and the study for a fixed address would finish the competitive set with a dated phone survey of the Lake St. Clair yards for labor rates, package prices and lift capacity, because no public source counts travel lifts or backlog by submarket. The revenue is built by line.
| Stream | Basis (as restructured) | Year-1 dollars at stabilization | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal wells, 135 at 32 feet | $65 per foot per season at 92 percent; DNR tiers $38.50 to $121; private rates by survey | $258,336 | 10.7 percent |
| Transient and monthly dockage | Elmwood Township 2022: transient 15 percent of dockage at a harbor marina; a yard runs lower | $25,000 | 1.0 percent |
| Inside heated storage, existing 24,000 SF | $10.00 per square foot of length by beam, 85 percent sold | $204,000 | 8.5 percent |
| Inside heated storage, new building | 12,000 SF at $10.00, 85 percent, net of the service bays | $102,000 | 4.2 percent |
| Outside storage | 150 boats at 32 by 10 feet, $3.50 per square foot, 85 percent | $142,800 | 5.9 percent |
| Shrink wrap and winterization | $15 per foot on 180 boats plus packages | $130,000 | 5.4 percent |
| Haul, launch, block and pressure wash | 250 boats each way at $8 plus 150 large boats at $10 after the lift opens | $278,000 | 11.5 percent |
| Service labor | Five technicians at 1,400 billed hours at $115 | $805,000 | 33.4 percent |
| Parts, materials and sublet | 50 percent of labor; margin not public | $402,500 | 16.7 percent |
| Ship store | Model | $60,000 | 2.5 percent |
| Total | $2,407,636 | 100 percent |
The sponsor's pro forma carries six technicians at 1,500 hours and $140, $1,260,000 of labor and $630,000 of parts, $3,090,136 in all. The ramp is 80 percent of stabilized revenue in year 1, with the lift opening for the spring launch and the big-boat book building over two seasons, 92 percent in year 2 and stabilized from year 3; prices and costs escalate 3 percent a year.
Development cost
As proposed
| Category | Item | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building | New heated service building, 12,000 SF pre-engineered, insulated, two 70-foot bays | $1,500,000 | Model, $125 per SF; no Michigan public bid found; contractor estimate is a condition |
| Marine | Lift well: two pile-supported finger piers 90 feet long, dredged approach to 9 feet, fendering | $650,000 | Model; joint permit and bottomlands conveyance |
| Site | Hardstand, 60,000 SF of reinforced paving, no wash pad or stormwater diversion | $350,000 | Sponsor budget |
| Site | Utilities to the building and well, lighting, fencing, stormwater outlet | $200,000 | Model |
| Soft costs | Design, engineering, geotechnical, pier design and permitting, 7 percent of real estate hard cost | $189,000 | Dunedin marina wall: design and permitting 9.8 percent (2025) |
| Fees | EGLE and USACE joint permit, bottomlands conveyance, township site plan and building permits | $25,000 | EGLE fee schedule: $500 or $2,000 state, $100 USACE |
| Contingency | 5 percent of real estate hard cost | $135,000 | Sponsor plan |
| Soft costs | Closing, legal, title, packaging | $60,000 | Model |
| Equipment | 75-ton travel lift, used 2004 unit | $290,000 | Sponsor budget; used 70-ton (1990) to 75-ton listings $110,000 to $290,000 |
| Financing | Capitalized construction interest, 9 months at 50 percent average draw | $86,468 | Computed at the bank rate on the debt |
| Financing | Financed CDC and bank fees | $48,343 | 2.17 percent of the debenture; 1.0 percent bank origination |
| 504 project and total | $3,533,810 |
| Sources | Amount | Share | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank first lien (50 percent) | $1,766,905 | 50.0 percent | 7.25 percent, 25-year amortization |
| SBA 504 debenture (CDC), 40 percent | $1,413,524 | 40.0 percent | 6.97 percent effective, 25-year, carrying the lift |
| Borrower contribution (10 percent) | $353,381 | 10.0 percent | Cash |
| Total | $3,533,810 | 100.0 percent |
As restructured
| Category | Item | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building | New heated service building, 12,000 SF, two 70-foot bays, fire separation, winterization area | $1,500,000 | As above |
| Marine | Lift well piers, dredged approach, fendering, designed across the 576 to 582 foot range | $650,000 | As above |
| Site | Hardstand, 60,000 SF, regraded and curbed to divert stormwater from the wash pad | $500,000 | Sunnyside Marina (MN): project more than $350,000 with stormwater diversion (Marina Dock Age, 2018) |
| Environmental | Closed-loop wash-water recycling system with wash pad, sumps and filters | $50,000 | Sunnyside: $35,000 of equipment; EGLE: the general permit does not authorize wash-water discharge |
| Site | Utilities, lighting, fencing, stormwater outlet | $200,000 | As above |
| Soft costs | Design, engineering, geotechnical, pier design and permitting, 7 percent | $203,000 | As above |
| Fees | Permits and conveyance | $25,000 | As above |
| Contingency | 10 percent of real estate hard cost | $290,000 | Berkeley D and E docks: 10 percent carried, low bid 18 percent over estimate (2024) |
| Soft costs | Closing, legal, title, packaging, fixture filing | $60,000 | As above |
| 504 piece before interest and fees | $3,478,000 | ||
| Equipment | 75-ton variable-width travel lift with slings, freight and assembly, new | $1,050,000 | Dealer quote required; MARAD FY2026 Small Shipyard grants of $750,000 (Arrow Launch, WA) and $763,401 (Dirty Bottom, USVI, 75BFMII) at a 75 percent cost-share cap imply projects of at least $1,000,000 to $1,017,868 |
| Financing | Capitalized construction interest, 9 months at 50 percent average draw, both pieces | $120,945 | $83,351 on the 504 interim loan, $37,594 on the 7(a) |
| Financing | Financed CDC, bank and SBA fees | $71,744 | $45,427 on the 504; $26,316 7(a) guaranty fee |
| Project | $4,720,688 | 504 real estate piece $3,606,778; 7(a) lift piece $1,113,911 | |
| Outside the project | Funded first-season reserve, held under lender control | $125,000 | Structure condition; sized to the year-1 shortfall and a slower hiring season |
| Total | Total project cost | $4,845,688 |
| Sources | Amount | Share | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank first lien (50 percent of the 504 piece) | $1,803,389 | 37.2 percent | 7.25 percent, 25-year amortization |
| SBA 504 debenture (CDC), 35 percent | $1,262,372 | 26.1 percent | 6.97 percent effective, 25-year |
| SBA 7(a) loan on the lift (90 percent of the lift piece) | $1,002,520 | 20.7 percent | 10.00 percent, 10-year amortization |
| Borrower contribution to the 504 piece (15 percent) | $541,017 | 11.2 percent | Cash |
| Borrower injection on the 7(a) piece (10 percent) | $111,391 | 2.3 percent | Cash |
| Borrower funding of the reserve outside the project | $125,000 | 2.6 percent | Cash |
| Total | $4,845,688 | 100.0 percent | Equity $777,408, 16.0 percent |
No Michigan public bid for a pre-engineered marine service building, lift-well piers or hardstand paving was found, and the three lines are model assumptions pending a contractor estimate; the lift line is the one public anchor, derived from two federal grants and checked against a dealer quote that is a condition. The sponsor's used-lift budget is a quarter to a third of the new-lift floor and funds a machine with twenty years of fatigue cycles on it.
Operating assumptions
| Line | Basis | Stabilized, as restructured (year 3) |
|---|---|---|
| Parts, materials and sublet cost | 70 percent of the parts stream; margin not public | $298,909 |
| Ship store cost of sales | 65 percent | $41,375 |
| Shrink wrap film, supports and winterization materials | 35 percent of the shrink wrap stream | $48,271 |
| Payroll including burden | Five technicians at $27.67 (the May 2025 national median; Michigan nonmetro mean $21.10 in May 2022) plus 25 percent burden, four yard and lift crew, manager, service writer, office and store; $900,000 stabilized, 85 percent in year 1 and 95 percent in year 2 | $954,810 |
| Insurance | Property on buildings and lift, ship repairers legal liability, pollution, workers compensation; $70,000 in year 1 pending broker indication; marina premiums forecast up 12 to 18 percent | $74,263 |
| Property tax, real and personal | $55,000 on taxable value at half of true cash value; piers and lift treatment flagged | $58,350 |
| Utilities, including heat for 36,000 SF | $85,000 in year 1 | $90,176 |
| Repairs and maintenance, lift, piers, buildings | $60,000 in year 1 | $63,654 |
| Environmental compliance | Industrial stormwater permit, SWPPP, certified operator ($30, $95 renewal), wash-water filters (under $1,000 a year at Washburn), hazardous waste disposal; $20,000 | $21,218 |
| Great Lakes bottomlands conveyance fee | Annual fee; amount not retrieved | $5,304 |
| Marketing, administration, software, professional fees | $90,000 in year 1 | $95,481 |
| Card and bank fees | 2.0 percent | $51,085 |
| Replacement reserve on lift, docks and paving | 2.0 percent of revenue | $51,085 |
| EBITDA | $700,279 (27.4 percent) |
Historical cash flow and the lender's DSCR
| Line | FY2024 | FY2025 | Two-year average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (returns, service tickets and storage contracts reconciled) | $1,320,000 | $1,409,000 | $1,364,500 |
| Seller's discretionary earnings, owner-operated | $350,000 | $375,000 | $362,500 |
| Replacement manager wage, including burden | $85,000 | $85,000 | $85,000 |
| EBITDA | $265,000 | $290,000 | $277,500 |
| Debt service, as proposed | $272,817 | $272,817 | $272,817 |
| Historical DSCR, as proposed | 0.97x | 1.06x | 1.02x |
| Debt service, as restructured | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 |
| Historical DSCR, as restructured | 0.63x | 0.69x | 0.66x |
An expansion is underwritten on the projection, and the historical line says what the lender is betting on: the existing yard, limited to boats its 35-ton lift can haul, earns $290,000 and covers the restructured debt at 0.69x, so the 75-ton lift has to add about $132,000 of EBITDA a year before the project covers at all and about $410,000 before it reaches 1.66x. The projected year 1, at 80 percent of stabilized revenue, is 37 percent above FY2025 and earns $406,064, and that is the year the reserve carries.
Ten-year pro forma, as restructured
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal wells | $206,669 | $244,799 | $274,069 | $282,291 | $290,759 | $299,482 | $308,467 | $317,721 | $327,252 | $337,070 |
| Transient and monthly dockage | $20,000 | $23,690 | $26,522 | $27,318 | $28,138 | $28,982 | $29,851 | $30,747 | $31,669 | $32,619 |
| Inside heated storage, existing building | $163,200 | $193,310 | $216,424 | $222,916 | $229,604 | $236,492 | $243,587 | $250,894 | $258,421 | $266,174 |
| Inside heated storage, new building | $81,600 | $96,655 | $108,212 | $111,458 | $114,802 | $118,246 | $121,793 | $125,447 | $129,211 | $133,087 |
| Outside storage | $114,240 | $135,317 | $151,497 | $156,041 | $160,723 | $165,544 | $170,511 | $175,626 | $180,895 | $186,322 |
| Shrink wrap and winterization | $104,000 | $123,188 | $137,917 | $142,055 | $146,316 | $150,706 | $155,227 | $159,884 | $164,680 | $169,621 |
| Haul, launch, block and pressure wash | $222,400 | $263,433 | $294,930 | $303,778 | $312,891 | $322,278 | $331,947 | $341,905 | $352,162 | $362,727 |
| Service labor | $644,000 | $762,818 | $854,024 | $879,645 | $906,035 | $933,216 | $961,212 | $990,048 | $1,019,750 | $1,050,342 |
| Parts, materials and sublet | $322,000 | $381,409 | $427,012 | $439,823 | $453,017 | $466,608 | $480,606 | $495,024 | $509,875 | $525,171 |
| Ship store | $48,000 | $56,856 | $63,654 | $65,564 | $67,531 | $69,556 | $71,643 | $73,792 | $76,006 | $78,286 |
| Total revenue | $1,926,109 | $2,281,476 | $2,554,261 | $2,630,889 | $2,709,816 | $2,791,110 | $2,874,843 | $2,961,089 | $3,049,921 | $3,141,419 |
| Parts, materials and sublet cost | $225,400 | $266,986 | $298,909 | $307,876 | $317,112 | $326,625 | $336,424 | $346,517 | $356,912 | $367,620 |
| Ship store cost of sales | $31,200 | $36,956 | $41,375 | $42,616 | $43,895 | $45,212 | $46,568 | $47,965 | $49,404 | $50,886 |
| Shrink wrap materials | $36,400 | $43,116 | $48,271 | $49,719 | $51,211 | $52,747 | $54,329 | $55,959 | $57,638 | $59,367 |
| Payroll including burden | $765,000 | $880,650 | $954,810 | $983,454 | $1,012,958 | $1,043,347 | $1,074,647 | $1,106,886 | $1,140,093 | $1,174,296 |
| Insurance | $70,000 | $72,100 | $74,263 | $76,491 | $78,786 | $81,149 | $83,584 | $86,091 | $88,674 | $91,334 |
| Property tax | $55,000 | $56,650 | $58,350 | $60,100 | $61,903 | $63,760 | $65,673 | $67,643 | $69,672 | $71,763 |
| Utilities | $85,000 | $87,550 | $90,176 | $92,882 | $95,668 | $98,538 | $101,494 | $104,539 | $107,675 | $110,906 |
| Repairs and maintenance | $60,000 | $61,800 | $63,654 | $65,564 | $67,531 | $69,556 | $71,643 | $73,792 | $76,006 | $78,286 |
| Environmental compliance | $20,000 | $20,600 | $21,218 | $21,855 | $22,510 | $23,185 | $23,881 | $24,597 | $25,335 | $26,095 |
| Bottomlands conveyance fee | $5,000 | $5,150 | $5,304 | $5,464 | $5,628 | $5,796 | $5,970 | $6,149 | $6,334 | $6,524 |
| Marketing, administration, professional fees | $90,000 | $92,700 | $95,481 | $98,345 | $101,296 | $104,335 | $107,465 | $110,689 | $114,009 | $117,430 |
| Card and bank fees | $38,522 | $45,630 | $51,085 | $52,618 | $54,196 | $55,822 | $57,497 | $59,222 | $60,998 | $62,828 |
| Replacement reserve | $38,522 | $45,630 | $51,085 | $52,618 | $54,196 | $55,822 | $57,497 | $59,222 | $60,998 | $62,828 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,520,044 | $1,715,518 | $1,853,982 | $1,909,601 | $1,966,889 | $2,025,896 | $2,086,673 | $2,149,273 | $2,213,751 | $2,280,163 |
| EBITDA | $406,064 | $565,958 | $700,279 | $721,288 | $742,926 | $765,214 | $788,171 | $811,816 | $836,170 | $861,255 |
| EBITDA margin | 21.1% | 24.8% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Debt service | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 | $422,177 |
| DSCR | 0.96x | 1.34x | 1.66x | 1.71x | 1.76x | 1.81x | 1.87x | 1.92x | 1.98x | 2.04x |
| Cash flow after debt service | -$16,113 | $143,781 | $278,102 | $299,111 | $320,749 | $343,037 | $365,994 | $389,639 | $413,993 | $439,078 |
Debt service is $156,420 on the bank loan, $106,776 on the debenture and $158,980 on the 7(a); the 7(a) is paid off after year 10 and debt service falls to $263,196. The year-1 shortfall of $16,113 is what the $125,000 reserve is for, with room for a slower hiring season.
DSCR by year, both structures
| Year | As proposed EBITDA (sponsor pro forma) | As proposed debt service | As proposed DSCR | As restructured EBITDA | As restructured debt service | As restructured DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $802,824 | $272,817 | 2.94x | $406,064 | $422,177 | 0.96x |
| 2 | $1,035,921 | $272,817 | 3.80x | $565,958 | $422,177 | 1.34x |
| 3 | $1,226,433 | $272,817 | 4.50x | $700,279 | $422,177 | 1.66x |
| 4 | $1,263,226 | $272,817 | 4.63x | $721,288 | $422,177 | 1.71x |
| 5 | $1,301,123 | $272,817 | 4.77x | $742,926 | $422,177 | 1.76x |
| 6 | $1,340,156 | $272,817 | 4.91x | $765,214 | $422,177 | 1.81x |
| 7 | $1,380,361 | $272,817 | 5.06x | $788,171 | $422,177 | 1.87x |
| 8 | $1,421,772 | $272,817 | 5.21x | $811,816 | $422,177 | 1.92x |
| 9 | $1,464,425 | $272,817 | 5.37x | $836,170 | $422,177 | 1.98x |
| 10 | $1,508,358 | $272,817 | 5.53x | $861,255 | $422,177 | 2.04x |
The proposed column is the sponsor's pro forma on the sponsor's budget, and both halves are wrong in the same direction: $526,154 more EBITDA in year 3 from a labor rate and a billed-hour count no Michigan yard documents, and $149,360 less debt service from a used lift, an unbudgeted wash system and a 5 percent contingency. The restructured column is the project that can be built and permitted, and it covers.
Break-even
On the stabilized year-3 statement with all ten streams scaled and the fixed lines held, the restructured yard covers debt service at $2,083,159 of revenue in year-1 dollars (13.5 percent below plan), reaches 1.15x at $2,157,046 (10.4 percent below) and 1.25x at $2,206,303 (8.4 percent below). As proposed, on the sponsor's pro forma, break-even is $1,952,238, 1.15x needs $2,001,069 and 1.25x needs $2,033,623, 34 to 37 percent below the sponsor's plan and 15 to 19 percent below the study's revenue, which is why the sponsor's structure looks unbreakable and is a compliance liability with a used lift. Stated in service hours alone with the other lines held, the restructured yard holds 1.15x down to about 5,400 billed hours a year across the five technicians, against the 7,000 modeled.
Sensitivities
All rows start from the restructured base unless labeled otherwise.
| Scenario | Total project cost | Debt | Annual debt service | Year 1 DSCR | Year 3 DSCR | Year 3 EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restructured base: five technicians at 1,400 hours and $115 | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.96x | 1.66x | $700,279 |
| Billed labor rate $100 | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.77x | 1.41x | $593,341 |
| Billed hours 1,200 per technician (hiring or weather) | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.72x | 1.34x | $567,296 |
| Four technicians hired, not five | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.77x | 1.40x | $590,487 |
| Seasonal wells at $55 per foot | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.89x | 1.56x | $659,802 |
| Storage 70 percent sold (inside and outside) | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.82x | 1.47x | $619,617 |
| Parts margin down 5 points | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.92x | 1.61x | $678,929 |
| Payroll up 10 percent | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.78x | 1.43x | $604,798 |
| All fixed costs up 15 percent | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.55x | 1.17x | $495,791 |
| All project costs up 10 percent (lift quote, piers, building) | $5,326,251 | $4,500,787 | $490,764 | 0.83x | 1.43x | $700,279 |
| Bank rate plus 100 basis points (8.25 percent) | $4,857,650 | $4,078,448 | $437,303 | 0.93x | 1.60x | $700,279 |
| 504 contribution 10 percent (CDC rules the yard not special purpose) | $4,854,854 | $4,256,869 | $438,139 | 0.93x | 1.60x | $700,279 |
| 504 amortization 20 years | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $447,196 | 0.91x | 1.57x | $700,279 |
| Low-water year: haul and service down 20 percent (deep-draft boats cannot reach the well) | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.53x | 1.08x | $457,476 |
| Slower ramp 70/85/100 | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.50x | 1.66x | $700,279 |
| Combined: $100 rate and 1,200 hours | $4,845,688 | $4,068,281 | $422,177 | 0.56x | 1.13x | $475,634 |
| As proposed: used lift, no wash system, 10 percent, sponsor pro forma | $3,533,810 | $3,180,429 | $272,817 | 2.94x | 4.50x | $1,226,433 |
| As proposed on the study's revenue basis | $3,533,810 | $3,180,429 | $272,817 | 1.36x | 2.40x | $654,464 |
| As proposed at 15 percent contribution | $3,524,853 | $2,996,125 | $257,218 | 3.12x | 4.77x | $1,226,433 |
The service book decides the case and the structure rows do not: a rate move, a contribution tier, a shorter debenture and a 10 percent cost overrun each leave stabilized coverage above 1.40x, while the labor rate, the billed hours and the hiring each take it to the 1.34x to 1.41x band and together to 1.13x. Year 1 is the exposed year in every row because the ramp and the hiring fall in the same season; a 70 percent ramp halves year-1 coverage and changes nothing at stabilization, which is the argument for the reserve rather than for a smaller project. The low-water row is the lake's: the 2013 record low would keep deep-draft boats out of the well and take a fifth of the haul and service book with them.
Valuation indication and collateral
The collateral is a yard on fee land with a new 12,000 SF building, a new lift well and a new lift, and its value to a lender is in that order. The building and paving on an owner-occupied waterfront industrial parcel in Harrison Township appraise on the cost and income approaches at or near their $2,250,000 of construction; the $650,000 well is special-purpose and its piers are on state bottomlands under a conveyance; the lift is equipment, worth perhaps $600,000 to $700,000 on the used market in five years against $1,050,000 new, which is why it sits on a ten-year term with a fixture filing rather than inside a 25-year debenture. The bank's first lien of $1,803,389 and the debenture's second lien of $1,262,372 sit on the land, the existing building, the new building and the well; on a going-concern income approach at a 9 to 10 percent capitalization of stabilized EBITDA the yard indicates $7.0 million to $7.8 million, and at the real estate's alternative-use value, a waterfront industrial parcel with 36,000 SF of heated space, the combined 504 liens of $3,065,761 are covered and the 7(a) relies on the lift and the guaranties. No Michigan or Great Lakes boatyard 504 or 7(a) financing is in the public record; TMC Financing's 504 refinance of Alameda Marina in California shows SBA accepting marina real estate as 504 collateral.
Conditions
- SBA's written eligibility determination, obtained through the CDC before commitment, that the borrower is a boat repair and storage business and not a marina for SOP 50 10 8 and 8.1, Section A, Chapter 1, Paragraph E.3, with the FY2025 revenue schedule split into transient dockage, seasonal dockage, storage, labor, parts and haul and launch; if SBA rules the yard a marina, the 504 and 7(a) are withdrawn and the conventional structure proceeds on the same budget.
- A dealer quote for the new 75-ton variable-width lift including slings, freight and assembly at or below $1,050,000, checked against the MARAD-derived floor; the lift described in the mortgage and in a UCC-1 fixture filing in the Macomb County real property records; the lift insured as equipment.
- A contractor estimate for the building, lift well piers, hardstand and wash system at or below the modeled lines, with the 10 percent contingency held by the lender; a low-water engineering memo for the well across the 576 to 582 foot range; executed contracts before the first draw.
- The EGLE and USACE joint permit and the bottomlands conveyance amendment issued before construction funding, with the conveyance term longer than the debenture and assignable to the lender; Harrison Township site plan and building permits.
- EGLE industrial stormwater certificate of coverage, a SWPPP, a certified operator and a documented wash-water disposal method before the first draw; indoor winterization in the operating plan; a Phase I, with a Phase II if historic wash-pad or hull-sanding areas are identified.
- The CDC's written special-purpose and contribution finding and the owner-occupancy analysis with the wells treated as rentable property; the bank's term sheet at or below 7.25 percent on a 25-year amortization; the October 2026 debenture pricing or better; the 7(a) at or below the 10.00 percent cap with the FY2027 fee financed.
- Equity of $777,408 at closing: $541,017 into the 504 piece, $111,391 into the 7(a) piece and the $125,000 reserve held under lender control through the end of year 2 and released only above 1.15x; unsecured guaranties from each 20 percent owner.
- A dated phone survey of the Lake St. Clair yards for billed labor rates, package prices and lift capacity, reconciled against the $115 rate and 1,400 hours before the loan is sized; a hiring plan for the five technicians with offers in hand for at least three before the lift is delivered; the first-year interest-only period on the bank interim loan documented.
Prepared by Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA, Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal Institute. Model case aligned with SBA SOP 50 10 8.1, under USPAP discipline. MMCG Invest, LLC, 27 Maiden Lane, Suite 625, San Francisco, CA 94108.
Sources
- SBA, SOP 50 10 8, Section A, Chapter 1, Paragraph E.3 (marinas), Chapter 3, Paragraphs A.1 and C.1 and Appendix 6; SOP 50 10 8.1 with Technical Policy Updates, Information Notice 5000-882227, effective October 1, 2026 (Growth Corp summary of changes); SBA Form 2234, Part C, Section IV; SBA Procedural Notice 5000-879058 (combined 7(a) and 504 limit, effective July 4, 2026); 13 CFR 120.131, 120.861, 120.862, 120.910, 121.201 and 121.301(b), eCFR current to October 7, 2026.
- SomerCor, October 2026 SBA 504 interest rates, priced October 8, 2026; CDC Small Business Finance and Eagle Compliance, September 2026 debenture pricing (20-year 6.534 percent, 25-year 6.541 percent); WBD, 504 basics; Michigan CDC, program structure and $5 million cap; ABBRA, SBA 504 fact sheet for marinas and boatyards (Larry Innis); CRS R41184; NAGGL, FY2027 7(a) and 504 fee notices, September 4, 2026; Federal Reserve H.15, October 7, 2026.
- U.S. Maritime Administration, FY2026 Small Shipyard Grant awardees (Arrow Launch Service $750,000; Dirty Bottom LLC $763,401; Michigan awards $1,951,522 across three yards); VI Consortium, October 6, 2026 (75BFMII lift, federal share, 75 percent cost-share cap); WorkBoat (MARAD $35 million program); CBS Detroit (Mackinac Marine Services, $752,933, 2020); Kendrick Equipment (Marine Travelift 75-ton rated capacity).
- Michigan EGLE, Guidance for Marinas, industrial stormwater, revised March 2022; EGLE sample SWPPP for a full-service marina (EQP9320-E, rev. February 2024; general permit MIS310000); EGLE Industrial Stormwater Program page and operator certification FAQ; EGLE and USACE Joint Permit Application fee schedule (March 2019) and permitting FAQ (review timelines); Michigan Sea Grant, Clean Marina Classroom, state laws (bottomlands conveyance) and Clean Marina certifications, November 24, 2025; Marina Dock Age, "Midwest Marinas Ready for Pressure Wash Water Regulation Enforcement," August 30, 2018 (Sunnyside and Washburn).
- Macomb County, Make Macomb Your Home (more than 16,000 slips; Lake St. Clair average depth) and Sheriff Marine Division (26 marinas, 85 square miles); Michigan Boating Industries Association, Lake St. Clair history and highlights (top three counties); Waterway Guide (Lake St. Clair Metropark marina, 265 slips); Michigan Secretary of State, watercraft registration release, February 18, 2021, and vehicle record guide; U.S. Coast Guard, Recreational Boating Statistics 2024, Table 38; Great Lakes Commission, 2007 economic punch report; NMMA, economic impact release ($11.7 billion Michigan); DBusiness summary ($10.2 billion, unresolved conflict).
- Michigan DNR, 2026 seasonal slip rates for state harbors; Keenan Marina, Harrison Township storage page; Beacon Cove Marina; Torresen Marine, Muskegon, storage rates; Manitowoc Marina, winter storage; Brian's Marina and Loon's Foot Marine (locations unverified, excluded from the base); Outdoor Equipment Co., Aussie Watersports, Spicer's Boat City and Memories TC (shrink wrap); Monterey Bay Boatworks, Angler Marine, Barber Marina and Liberty Landing (out-of-region labor rates, 2025 to 2026); Elmwood Township, Michigan, 2022 marina revenue (transient and seasonal).
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, 49-3051 Motorboat Mechanics and Service Technicians, May 2022 (Michigan nonmetro areas); O*NET, 49-3051.00, May 2025 national median; Risk Strategies, State of the Insurance Market Report, Q4 2024, Marine, and 2025 Outlook.
- USACE Detroit District, Lake Michigan-Huron record low release (576.02 feet, January 2013) and Monthly Bulletin of Great Lakes Water Levels, June 2026; USACE July 2020 bulletin and WXYZ (2020 record highs); Tip of the Mitt Watershed Council (1986 high, 582.3 feet); City of Berkeley, May 7, 2024 (dock bid over estimate); City of Dunedin, July 2025 (design and permitting share); TMC Financing (Alameda Marina 504 refinance).
