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The Tampa Feasibility Market: SBA, USDA and Its Structural Variables

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Principal of MMCG InvestMichal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA, Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal InstitutePublished September 23, 20268 minute read

Summary

Tampa underwrites outside a national template on a set of statute and government rooted structural variables. This research post carries each at the level a primary source supports, plus the USDA eligibility line and the Tampa metro SBA 7(a) and 504 record computed from the FOIA file. It is the companion to the Tampa feasibility study hub.

8 minute read.

Data as of June 2026. This companion research post carries the full structural and capital-markets detail behind the Tampa feasibility study hub. Every figure traces to a primary source named in the Sources list. MMCG's city briefs use primary and FOIA sources and do not carry commercial rent, vacancy or occupancy figures.

The structural variables that reset Tampa underwriting

Tampa carries its own set of statute and government rooted variables that redefine the underwriting envelope for a commercial real estate, SBA or USDA feasibility study. Each is stated here at the level a primary source supports.

Tampa Bay Water, a regional wholesale supplier created by interlocal agreement. Tampa Bay Water states that it supplies wholesale drinking water to Hillsborough County, Pasco County, Pinellas County, New Port Richey, St. Petersburg and Tampa, serving more than 2.6 million people through the governments it serves; that it is a non-profit special district of the State of Florida created to plan, develop and deliver a drinking water supply; that it was created by interlocal agreement among its member governments and is funded through the sale of water to them; and that its members share the cost of developing new supplies and pay the same wholesale water rates. The uniform wholesale rate is the part a feasibility study can use. It means the wholesale component of water cost does not vary between member jurisdictions, so a site comparison across the three counties turns on the retail utility's own charges and on connection cost, not on the underlying supply price, and a study that attributes a water-cost advantage to one member county has almost certainly mislocated it.

A single statewide building code, adopted and amended at the state level. The Florida Building Commission publishes the Florida Building Code and states that the effective date for the Florida Building Code, 8th Edition (2023), is December 31, 2023. In a coastal metro that is the schedule that governs wind design, opening protection and inspection, and it moves on the state's edition cycle rather than the host city's. A construction budget carried in a feasibility study should therefore be stated against the edition in force at permit, and a study that prices a Tampa project on a national template without naming the code edition has not priced the structure.

Tampa SBA capital markets, computed from the FOIA file

Nationally, the U.S. Small Business Administration closed fiscal year 2025 having guaranteed 84,400 7(a) and 504 loans for $44.8 billion, comprising 77,600 7(a) loans for $37 billion and 6,750 504 loans for $7.8 billion, per SBA News Release 25-83 dated September 30, 2025. The Tampa metro cut below is computed in-house from the SBA 7(a) and 504 FOIA release by county membership across the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area, never read from an SBA district total.

In fiscal year 2025 the Tampa metro recorded 872 7(a) approvals for $434,860,200 and 114 504 approvals for $124,454,000, filed largely through the SOUTH FLORIDA DISTRICT OFFICE. The most active 7(a) lenders in the metro that year, by approval count, were Newtek Bank, National Association (90 loans); Northeast Bank (80 loans); The Huntington National Bank (69 loans); TD Bank, National Association (68 loans); BayFirst National Bank (47 loans); Live Oak Banking Company (32 loans); JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (31 loans); Readycap Lending, LLC (30 loans). The most active 504 Certified Development Companies were Florida Business Development Corporation (68 loans, $59,050,000); Florida First Capital Finance Corporation, Inc. (33 loans, $50,012,000); Sunshine State Economic Development Corporation (13 loans, $15,392,000).

SBA 7(a) and 504 lending in the Tampa MSA by asset class, fiscal years 2010 to 2026 disbursed, computed from the SBA FOIA release (as of June 30, 2026).
Asset class7(a) loans7(a) gross approval7(a) charge-off rate504 loans504 gross approval504 charge-off rate
Hotels and motels75$156,508,1000.0%61$139,065,000cohort under 30
Car washes36$49,645,300cohort under 3025$32,583,000cohort under 30
Self-storage10$25,593,500cohort under 308$5,375,000cohort under 30
RV parks and campgroundsunder 5under 5
Assisted living and continuing care78$81,506,0002.5%14$22,048,000cohort under 30
Gas stations and convenience stores23$21,401,200cohort under 309$4,596,000cohort under 30
Restaurants, full and limited service540$319,242,4008.9%79$64,154,000cohort under 30
Fitness and recreational sports centers159$70,029,90018.8%8$6,078,000cohort under 30
Marinas5$6,100,000cohort under 30under 5
Child day care services166$161,980,1002.0%62$66,977,000cohort under 30
All ten asset classes in this table1,093$896,806,5007.3%272$350,351,0002.7%

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 FOIA release (label as of June 30, 2026); computed by MMCG from the SBA FOIA loan file. Charge-off rate shown only where the resolved cohort has at least 30 loans; a cell under five loans is suppressed.

USDA eligibility geometry in the Tampa region

USDA Business and Industry and Community Facilities credit runs on a statutory geography, not a county line. Under 7 U.S.C. 1991(a)(13)(A) the terms rural and rural area mean any area other than a city or town of more than 50,000 inhabitants and any urbanized area contiguous and adjacent to such a city or town. The Tampa urbanized core is therefore out. What remains in this metro is the outer parts of the four member counties, beyond the urbanized area that runs with Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. Because the test turns on the subject address and the urbanized-area boundary around it rather than on the name of the town, MMCG verifies eligibility at the address on the USDA Rural Development eligibility map at intake, before any work on the study begins, and no town is named on this page as eligible.

A note on what this post does not claim

A Tampa market piece would ordinarily carry submarket rents, vacancy and absorption. Those come from commercial market reports, which MMCG's city briefs do not carry, so they are omitted rather than shown on a weaker source. What remains is the statute, the federal program frame and the SBA record computed from the primary file, which is the part of a Tampa study a lender can check.

Sources

  1. U.S. Small Business Administration, News Release 25-83, September 30, 2025
  2. U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 FOIA release (label as of June 30, 2026)
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, vintage 2024
  4. Tampa Bay Water
  5. Florida Building Commission
  6. The Florida Senate, Florida Statutes section 553.73 (the Florida Building Code, its adoption and local amendment)
  7. U.S. Government Publishing Office, govinfo, 7 U.S.C. 1991 (2024 edition)
Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Principal of MMCG Invest

Cite this

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA (2026). The Tampa Feasibility Market: SBA, USDA and Its Structural Variables. MMCG Invest, LLC. https://www.mmcginvest.com/post/tampa-feasibility-market-2026

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