SBA 7(a) Feasibility Study Case Study: A Franchise Urgent Care Center at Travis Ranch in Forney, Texas, Feasible Conditioned on the Ramp Reserve

A 4,883 square foot freestanding medical building built in 2022 at 1001 Travis Ranch Blvd in Forney, Kaufman County, Texas, directly in front of the main entrance to the Travis Ranch master-planned community, is marketed at $1,500,000, or $307 per square foot. The proposal is an owner-occupied American Family Care franchise urgent care center financed with a $2,580,000 SBA 7(a) loan at 9.50 percent, inside the 10.00 percent cap at the current 7.00 percent prime rate, on a $2,867,000 total project cost with 10 percent equity. Kaufman County is the fastest-growing county in Texas at 209,235 residents, up 5.7 percent in a year, and the AFC system's 2026 disclosure document reports median franchised revenue of $1,699,854 on a median 33.7 patients per day at $141.40 per visit. The center ramps from 17 patients per day to 34.5 over five years, loses $164,818 in Year 1 against an interest-only payment, covers at 1.30x in Year 3 and 1.88x in Year 5, and breaks even at 1.00x coverage at 29.0 patients per day. The $510,000 working capital and ramp reserve funds the Year 1 and Year 2 gap of $498,256 with $11,744 of margin, which is why the determination carries its condition in its title. Determination: feasible, conditioned on the ramp reserve, payer credentialing and the SBA Franchise Directory confirmation.

Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | October 4, 2026

MMCG concludes that the franchise urgent care center at 1001 Travis Ranch Blvd is feasible, conditioned on the ramp reserve. The demand side of this credit is as strong as suburban urgent care gets: the fastest-growing county in Texas, a subject building that fronts the main entrance of a master-planned community still delivering rooftops, a broker projection of 140,000 residents within five miles by 2030 at an average household income of $128,735, carried as a marketing projection and not a Census figure, and a hybrid freestanding emergency room a mile and a half away that reports more than 70 percent of its own patients are treated and billed as urgent care, which is the market telling anyone who reads its disclosure that low-acuity demand in Forney outruns the urgent care supply. Against that demand the AFC system hands the underwriter something rare in healthcare lending: audited, system-wide unit economics. The study sets its stabilized visit curve below the system median of 33.7 patients per day, prices every visit at the median $141.40 escalating 2 percent per year, and builds the expense budget line by line from the disclosure document's own fee schedule.

The condition is the ramp, and the study refuses to soften it. At 17 patients per day the center loses $164,818 in its first year while paying $245,100 of interest, and at 26.5 patients per day in Year 2 it covers only 0.68x of its first amortizing payments. The combined gap of $498,256 is funded by the $510,000 working capital and ramp reserve, with $11,744 to spare, and 90 to 120 days of the first-year shortfall is a credentialing artifact: the disclosure document itself flags that some states bar payer credentialing until a center is operating, so the model assumes 90 to 120 days to in-network status with the major Texas commercial payers. A lender that funds this loan without the full reserve has approved a different and weaker credit than the one in this study. From Year 3 the center covers at 1.30x on 31 patients per day, a volume 8 percent below the system median, and at the median itself it covers at 1.71x.

This is an MMCG model study: a complete feasibility analysis performed on a real, publicly marketed building and a real franchise system's disclosed economics, prepared to show SBA lenders and franchise sponsors how MMCG underwrites a startup urgent care before the letter of intent. It is not a client engagement, MMCG has no relationship with the seller, the broker, American Family Care or any prospective franchisee, and the analysis is not an offer, an appraisal or a recommendation. Figures drawn from the listing portals, the AFC 2026 franchise disclosure document, Census estimates, SBA fee notices and the published prime rate are identified as such. Figures labeled MMCG assumption are underwriting inputs set by MMCG, including the tenant improvement budget, the staffing model and the visit ramp. Items that could not be verified from a primary source at the study date, including the parcel's acreage and zoning, the TxDOT traffic count for Travis Ranch Blvd, the Dallas-Fort Worth OEWS wage set and AFC's current SBA Franchise Directory listing, are listed in Conditions and Limitations rather than estimated silently.

The Project will acquire the 4,883 SF freestanding medical building at 1001 Travis Ranch Blvd, complete tenant improvements to American Family Care's clinical specification, and operate an AFC franchise urgent care center open seven days a week, about 362 days a year, offering walk-in treatment of injury and illness, on-site X-ray, laboratory services, EKG, occupational medicine and employer services, physicals and vaccinations. The building was constructed in 2022 as a professional medical building, so the budget prices conversion of a medical shell at $59 per square foot rather than the $210 per square foot vanilla-box build-out the disclosure document contemplates, one of the few places this subject is cheaper than the franchise system's own planning numbers. The operator is an owner-occupant borrower under the 7(a) program, staffing the center with a supervising physician arrangement, advanced practice providers on the floor, medical assistants cross-trained for radiology under Texas limited-license rules, and a front office team, with the sponsor providing the personal guarantee the program requires. The center opens on the franchise system's playbook: credentialing begins at signing, the grand opening program of $35,000 to $50,000 in the disclosure document is carried at $45,000, and the first 90 to 120 days are modeled at depressed collections while commercial contracts activate.

Marketing and Sales Strategy

The primary channel is the intersection itself: the building fronts the entrance that every Travis Ranch household uses, in a community whose developer records 4,123 planned homes and whose broker markets nearly 6,500, and an urgent care's trade is overwhelmingly drive-by and map-search. The second channel is the AFC system: the 2 percent brand fund, the $2,000 per month local advertising minimum and the system's search presence, which a de novo independent clinic would have to buy alone. The third channel is employer services: Forney's distribution and construction employment base generates occupational medicine, workers' compensation and pre-employment volume that stabilizes weekday mornings. The fourth is payer directories, which is why credentialing speed is a named condition rather than a footnote: a center that is out of network is invisible in the channels where insured patients choose.

Facility Program

The subject sits at 1001 Travis Ranch Blvd, Forney, TX 75126, a 4,883 SF freestanding professional medical building built in 2022, listed for sale at $1,500,000, or $307 per square foot, through Falcon Companies, with a LoopNet lease record (24595455) and the sale listing on Showcase. The parcel's acreage and zoning were not disclosed in the retrieved records and are carried as conditions for the Kaufman CAD and City of Forney pulls. No traffic count is published for Travis Ranch Blvd itself; the nearest published benchmark is 79,131 vehicles per day on US-80 at Elm Street from a broker flyer for a nearby property, and the TxDOT AADT pull for FM 740 and Travis Ranch Blvd is a condition.

Forney is the eastern growth front of the Dallas metroplex, and Kaufman County is its statistical headline: 209,235 residents as of July 2025, up 5.7 percent in a single year, the fastest rate in Texas, with more than 50,000 residents added from 2020 to 2024. Two alternates were screened and set aside: a pad carve-out from the Highway 80 retail land adjacent to Costco, which offers 79,000 vehicle per day frontage but prices on request, and the 32,000 SF former retail building at 119 E US-80, oversized for a single urgent care and useful mainly as the zoning and traffic comparable it provided. The subject's logic is the opposite of the arterial play: it owns the front door of a specific population rather than a share of a highway.

Municipal utilities serve the 2022 building and are carried as in place. Property tax is modeled at $34,000 per year, an MMCG assumption at a Kaufman County combined rate applied to a value near the acquisition price, pending the CAD record. Insurance, including property, general liability and the entity-level professional liability wrap above the providers' own coverage, is carried at $42,000 in Year 3. No impact fees apply to an existing building, and franchise-specific technology costs are carried on the disclosure document's own $767 per month line.

The trade area is a 12 to 15 minute drive time centered on Travis Ranch, reaching Forney proper, Heartland and the Lake Ray Hubbard eastern shore communities. The county base is primary-verified: 209,235 residents, the fastest-growing county in the state. The local ring is carried from broker materials and flagged as such: a five-mile population projected above 140,000 by 2030 with average household income of $128,735, a marketing projection the model does not require, because the visit curve is benchmarked to the franchise system's realized medians rather than derived from a population formula. Texas has not expanded Medicaid, so the payer model carries a higher self-pay share and lower Medicaid share than an expansion-state comparable; in urgent care, where the median collection is $141.40 per visit and self-pay visits clear at posted cash rates, non-expansion status costs less than it does in hospital credits, and the disclosure document's medians already embed the payer reality of a system whose largest state concentrations include Texas. The ESRI or ACS drive-time pull of population, age and insurance coverage is a condition.

Three demand facts anchor the volume curve. First, the system benchmark: 291 AFC franchised centers averaged 12,772 visits in calendar 2025, a median of 12,183, or 33.7 patients per day at the median, and the subject's Year 5 stabilization of 34.5 sits essentially at that median in a trade area growing faster than the system's average market. Second, the competitive ratio: on the broker's 2030 projection of 140,000 residents in five miles and four core walk-in operators, the ratio is about 35,000 residents per center, a projection-based figure flagged for recomputation on current drive-time population, against a national planning convention nearer 20,000 to 30,000. Third, the diversion signal: iCare ER and Urgent Care, the hybrid freestanding emergency room on FM 741, states that more than 70 percent of its patients are treated and billed as urgent care, which is low-acuity demand paying emergency-adjacent prices for want of capacity, the single most persuasive demand datum in the file.

The ramp is an MMCG assumption shaped to the franchise system's maturation pattern, opening below half of median volume and reaching the median band in Year 4; per-visit revenue is the Item 19 median escalated 2 percent per year, inside the system's reported range of $75 to $304.

MMCG identified four walk-in operators in the Forney core and four on the periphery. Verification status is stated per competitor.

Competitor Number 1 CareNow Urgent Care, Forney This HCA Healthcare center is located at 610 E US Hwy 80, Forney, TX. Its address and phone are verified on the brand's own website; its hours of Monday to Saturday 8am to 8pm and Sunday 8am to 5pm are carried from a directory. It is the national-brand incumbent on the US-80 corridor.

Competitor Number 2 Integrity Urgent Care, Forney This independent multi-site chain location is located at 415 S FM 548, Suite 180, Forney, TX and is verified on its own website, with daily hours to 8pm, X-ray, EKG, labs and occupational medicine, accepting Medicare and Medicaid. It is the closest operational analogue to the subject's program.

Competitor Number 3 iCare ER and Urgent Care This independent hybrid freestanding emergency room with an urgent care track is located at 1325 S FM 741, Forney, TX and is verified on its own website, with the ER open 24/7 and urgent care 7am to 8pm daily. Its disclosure that more than 70 percent of its patients are treated as urgent care is the study's demand signal and also its price umbrella.

Competitor Number 4 Care United Medical Center This independent clinic is located at 501 FM 548, Suite 124, Forney, TX, carried from a scheduling aggregator only, with hours and imaging unverified.

On the periphery, AFC Urgent Care Rowlett at 4724 Lakeview Pkwy, Rockwall Rapid Care at 2313 Ridge Rd, Integrity Urgent Care Kaufman at 209 Kings Pkwy and CareNow Balch Springs at 12127 Lake June Rd, about 8.6 miles, are carried from aggregators. The Rowlett AFC location matters for a different reason than competition: territory and brand adjacency are franchise-agreement questions the sponsor must resolve with the franchisor, and the study lists them as a condition. Retail clinics such as CVS MinuteClinic were not confirmed in the trade area, and GIS distance measurement from the subject is a condition.

Urgent care is fee-for-service medicine with retail pricing discipline, and the study prices it off the franchise system's own ledger: a median net collection of $141.40 per visit across 291 centers in 2025, cross-checked by the system's public reporting of about 4,790,000 visits and more than $685,000,000 of cash revenue across 370 centers, which implies about $143 per visit. The model's payer mechanics are carried inside that number rather than built from a rate table: commercial PPO allowables above the median, Medicare at its urgent care office rates below it, self-pay at posted cash prices, and the non-expansion Medicaid share kept thin. The two payer risks that matter are timing and network status, the same risk stated twice: collections lag until credentialing completes, modeled at 90 to 120 days to in-network status with major Texas commercial payers, and out-of-network status beyond that window would invalidate the ramp. Royalty of 6 percent and the 2 percent marketing fee are calculated on net payments per the disclosure document, with the $1,250 per four-week royalty floor immaterial at every modeled volume.

Location: 1001 Travis Ranch Blvd, Forney, TX 75126 Units: 4,883 SF

Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG

The total sits inside a defensible frame against the disclosure document's Item 7 range of $948,250 to $1,514,000 for a new center excluding real estate: stripping the $1,538,000 of real estate from the subject's budget leaves $1,329,000, in the upper half of Item 7 because the working capital line is carried at $510,000, above the document's $200,000 to $500,000 additional-funds range, deliberately, because the document's range covers three months and this model's reserve covers the full measured gap to coverage. The tenant improvement line at $59 per SF prices conversion of an existing 2022 medical shell, not the $210 per SF vanilla-box assumption in the document's notes.

Loan Assumptions

The guaranteed portion is 75 percent, or $1,935,000, and the upfront guaranty fee of 3.5 percent of the guaranteed portion up to $1,000,000 plus 3.75 percent above it computes to $70,063, carried at $70,000, with the 0.55 percent annual service fee on the guaranteed balance inside the lender's pricing. Real estate is 54 percent of total uses and the majority of loan proceeds, supporting the 25-year blended maturity.

The borrower is an eligible for-profit operating company occupying its own real estate, the loan is within the $5,000,000 7(a) cap, and the 10 percent equity injection meets the startup minimum, to be confirmed against SOP 50 10 8.1, effective October 1, 2026. The franchise question is a gating item, not a formality: American Family Care's listing on the SBA Franchise Directory, with the management-affiliation clause noted in the directory record, must be confirmed as current at application, and the franchise agreement, territory protection against the Rowlett AFC location, and any required addenda belong in the loan file. The rate is inside the regulatory maximum, the fee computation follows the FY2027 notice whose published summary holds the FY2026 schedule for this loan size, and the lender's 1.15x coverage convention is met from Year 3 with the ramp reserve carrying the file to that point, which is exactly the structure the working capital line exists to document.

The Year 3 operating budget at 31 patients per day is built line by line from the disclosure document's fee schedule and MMCG's staffing model.

The 21.8 percent Year 3 margin reconciles to the system's own profitability disclosure once occupancy is restated: affiliate centers averaged $282,343 of 4-wall EBITDA on $1,793,641 of revenue as tenants, and adding back a market rent of roughly $28 per SF that an owner-occupant does not pay puts the comparable margin near 23 percent, which the subject reaches in Year 5. The disclosure document's octile data also carries the warning the study keeps: octiles 7 and 8 of affiliate centers ran negative, at ($45,895) and ($242,732), and the break-even section below locates the subject's distance from that tail.

The Year 1 gap of $409,918 and the Year 2 gap of $88,338 total $498,256 against the $510,000 reserve, leaving $11,744, and the study states the thinness of that margin rather than rounding it away. From Year 3 the center covers at 1.30x on a volume 8 percent below the system median; a center that merely performs at the median covers at 1.71x, and the Year 5 margin of 27.2 percent of revenue remaining after debt service is the return profile that makes owner-occupied urgent care a favored 7(a) asset class.

At Year 3 pricing, fixed operating costs are $919,204 and variable costs run 22.5 percent of revenue across the royalty, marketing, supplies, laboratory and billing lines.

The honest statement of the credit sits in the last three rows: the 1.25x threshold at 30.6 patients per day is four tenths of a patient below the Year 3 forecast and three full patients below the system median, so the question a lender is underwriting is not whether an AFC center at this corner can perform at the system's norm, but whether it gets there by Year 3, and the reserve is sized for the possibility that it does not.

The grid is deliberately symmetrical around the volume question. Every downside case that breaches 1.00x is a volume or collection case, not a rate or cost case, and each lands in the mid-0.8x range rather than catastrophe, the range where a seasoned reserve and a sponsor guarantee absorb the miss while the rooftops that are already permitted deliver the recovery. The rate-cap case costs five points of coverage, which is why the 9.50 percent assumption is disclosed rather than buried.

The determination of feasible is subject to the following conditions precedent:

The following items could not be verified from a primary source at the study date and are disclosed: the parcel acreage and zoning; the TxDOT traffic counts for Travis Ranch Blvd and FM 740; the drive-time demographic and insurance profile, in place of which the county figure is primary and the five-mile projection is a flagged broker figure; the hours and imaging capability of Care United and the periphery competitors; retail clinic presence; the Dallas-Fort Worth OEWS wage set behind the staffing model; and the annual service fee rate, carried at 0.55 percent against one secondary source showing 0.25 percent.

This model study applies the methodology described on MMCG's urgent care feasibility study and medical feasibility study pages. MMCG prepares urgent care and medical facility feasibility studies for SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA Business and Industry and conventional lenders nationwide, with fixed-fee engagements quoted by facility type and delivery in 9 to 16 business days.