The modeled acquisition of the Planet Fitness club at 7528 S Anthony Blvd, Fort Wayne, a 20,001 SF club in a 1968 former Kmart renovated in 2019, does not pass the SOP 50 10 8.1 historical 1.25x DSCR test as proposed: at a $2,400,000 purchase price and a $3,215,600 7(a) loan, modeled trailing EBITDA of $500,349 covers $504,605 of debt service at 0.99x. As restructured, with the price cut to $2,000,000, the loan to $2,500,000 and equity raised to $652,813 (20.7 percent of total project cost, including a $157,600 seller note on full standby), historical DSCR is 1.28x, with a cushion of 42 members above the 1.25x break-even. Restructured coverage on EBITDA runs 1.14x, 1.22x, 1.44x, 1.48x and 1.46x across Years 1 through 5; after the $93,000 annual re-equip reserve it is 0.90x and 0.98x in Years 1 and 2, which the $100,000 working capital reserve is sized to absorb. Determination: not feasible as proposed; feasible as restructured, subject to the conditions stated.
Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | October 5, 2026
Study at a Glance
| Item | As proposed | As restructured |
|---|---|---|
| Subject | Planet Fitness, 7528 S Anthony Blvd, Fort Wayne, IN 46816 | Same |
| Program | SBA 7(a), SOP 50 10 8.1, Appendix 15 Initial Acquisition | Same |
| Purchase price | $2,400,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Total project cost | $3,572,940 | $3,152,813 |
| 7(a) loan | $3,215,600 | $2,500,000 |
| Equity (cash plus standby seller note) | $357,340 (10.0%) | $652,813 (20.7%) |
| Rate and amortization | Prime 7.00% + 2.75% = 9.75%, 10 years | Same |
| Annual debt service | $504,605 | $392,310 |
| Modeled trailing EBITDA | $500,349 | $500,349 |
| Historical DSCR (Appendix 15 test) | 0.99x | 1.28x |
| QoE required | No (price under $3M) | No |
| Determination | Not compliant | Feasible with conditions |
Determination
As proposed, the transaction does not meet the 1.25x historical DSCR required for an Initial Acquisition under SOP 50 10 8.1 Appendix 15: modeled trailing EBITDA of $500,349 against $504,605 of debt service is 0.99x. As restructured, with the price reduced from $2,400,000 to $2,000,000, the loan reduced from $3,215,600 to $2,500,000 and buyer cash increased from $178,700 to $495,213, historical DSCR is 1.28x. The 1.25x historical break-even is 5,958 members against 6,000 modeled, a cushion of 42 members (0.7 percent). After the re-equip reserve, coverage is 0.90x in Year 1 and 0.98x in Year 2; the $100,000 working capital reserve equals 2.1 times the modeled cumulative shortfall of $46,979. The restructured determination is conditional on the seller's tax returns supporting the modeled trailing EBITDA, landlord consent to lease assignment, franchisor transfer approval, and confirmation of the brand's Franchise Directory status.
Scope and Basis of This Model Study
This is a model study. The subject club and building are real and publicly documented; the buyer, borrower, purchase price, membership count and operating statement are hypothetical and are labeled "MMCG assumption" where not drawn from a document. No private client data and no analog from any other engagement is used. Planet Fitness appears only as franchisor, cited from its own filings and its 2026 FDD as summarized by a third party; Crunch, the YMCA and Anytime Fitness appear only as competitors. The seller's financial statements are not public, so the historical year used for the Appendix 15 test is a modeled trailing twelve months, not an actual one. SOP 50 10 8.1 provisions are cited from SBA Information Notice 5000-880695 and practitioner summaries of Appendix 15; the SOP text itself was not retrieved in this pass. The framework this study applies is described on our gym and fitness feasibility hub.
The method is set out in full in MMCG's feasibility study methodology.
Subject Selection
Six public candidates were screened for an operating HVLP club in a backfilled retail box with a usable public record.
| # | Candidate | Former box | SF | Public record | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Planet Fitness Fort Wayne (South), 7528 S Anthony Blvd | Kmart | 20,001 | Building listed at $2,871,000 (7.25% cap, ALO Property Group); IRMLS MLS 202421905 at $3,300,000; prior 2021 sale at $2.4M (Hanley Investment Group); multi-year operating history | Selected |
| 2 | Planet Fitness Rehoboth Beach, DE | Bed Bath & Beyond | 23,000 | Opened November 2025 | Rejected: under 12 months of operations, no historical year for the Appendix 15 test |
| 3 | Planet Fitness Plano, TX (W Plano Pkwy) | Bed Bath & Beyond | Not public | Opened December 2025 | Rejected: under 12 months; SF not public |
| 4 | Planet Fitness Brunswick, ME | Bed Bath & Beyond | Not public | Announced January 2024 | Rejected: SF and opening date not public |
| 5 | Planet Fitness Auburn, MA | Bed Bath & Beyond | Not public | Announced October 2025 | Rejected: insufficient public record |
| 6 | Bi-level 15,000 SF franchise gym, New York (BizQuest BW2229620) | Not a big box | 15,000 | Asking $1,800,000; SDE $500,000 | Used as resale comparable only (3.6x SDE); brand not disclosed |
Gap disclosure. No operating Planet Fitness club was found publicly for sale; one resale platform reported no Planet Fitness resales available. The study therefore uses a real club with a public building and lease record and models a hypothetical business acquisition price, benchmarked to the one franchise-gym listing above and labeled an MMCG assumption.
Project Business Plan
The hypothetical buyer acquires the franchised operating business (goodwill, FF&E and franchise rights) and takes assignment of the existing NNN lease. Within the first six months the buyer completes the franchisor's re-equip, modeled at $650,000 within the FDD range of $333,000 to $995,000, and a $250,000 remodel refresh at the FDD low end. The club continues on the brand's two-tier pricing: Classic at $15 and PF Black Card at $24.99 per month, with a $49 annual fee (club page, accessed 5 October 2026).
Marketing and Sales Strategy. Local advertising follows the FDD minimum, the greater of $60,000 or 7 percent of cumulative monthly EFT, modeled at $105,810 in the trailing year. Pricing follows brand programs; the franchisor paused its national Black Card increase on 7 May 2026 pending a broader pricing review (CNBC). Join volume is managed around January and summer campaigns.
Amenities. At opening the club offered cardio and strength equipment, a 30-minute express circuit, locker rooms with showers, two HydroMassage beds, two hydro lounges, two massage chairs, six tanning beds and a Total Body Enhancement booth, staffed 24/7 (FW Business). The current club page lists a 360 training area, HydroMassage, tanning and Total Body Enhancement.
Site and Location Analysis
The building is a 20,001 SF single-tenant box, built in 1968 and renovated in 2019 (LoopNet; ALO). It sits on the south side of Fort Wayne, across from a Walmart Supercenter and Menards, near the US 27 and South Anthony intersection, sharing the redeveloped former Kmart site with an Extra Space Storage facility. Parking is 246 spaces, 12.3 per 1,000 SF. The listing describes the site as visible from Hwy 27, but US 27 runs on Lafayette Street north of Anthony Boulevard; no INDOT traffic count for the frontage was obtained (see Conditions and Limitations).
Zoning and Entitlement
LoopNet reports zoning as "C - Commercial" and the MLS as "Shopping Center." The club has operated as a health club since its post-2019 opening, which indicates the use is established. A zoning verification letter from the City of Fort Wayne / Allen County is required and has not been obtained.
Lease, Utilities and Property Tax
| Term | Public record | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Rent | $208,010 per year NNN ($17,334.20 per month), $10.40 per SF | IRMLS |
| Escalators | 5% at October 2029 and every 5 years (IRMLS); 10% in 2024 (LoopNet) | Conflicting descriptions |
| Term remaining | 9.5 years (ALO) or 8.5 years (LoopNet) at listing | Estoppel required |
| Options | One 5-year renewal (ALO) | Estoppel required |
| Guarantor | BCDI Great Lakes Holdings, Inc., described by ALO as a Planet Fitness subsidiary | Operator identity to verify |
| Assignment clause, landlord consent, personal guaranty | Not public | Condition precedent |
| Landlord of record | 2021 seller was a McCormack Development and Jackson Investment Group partnership; buyer a private California exchange buyer (Hanley via FW Business). The 2021 report described the lease guaranty as from a large franchisee operator with close to 40 locations, which conflicts with ALO's subsidiary description. Current owner not verified | Title search required |
Utilities are tenant-paid and modeled at $72,000, between the FDD Item 19 corporate-club bottom third ($68,432) and middle third ($76,602). Property tax under the NNN lease is a tenant pass-through; the MLS reports annual taxes of $8,946.69, inconsistent with a $4,866,000 total assessment that may cover the full 9.90-acre parent parcel including the storage facility. The model uses $45,000 (MMCG assumption, $2.25 per SF) pending the Allen County tax bill.
Trade Area Demographics
| Metric (ZIP 46816, ACS 2020 to 2024 5-year) | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 19,514 |
| Households | 7,557 |
| Average household size | 2.56 |
| Median household income | $45,343 |
| Per capita income | $23,217 |
| Renter-occupied, share of occupied units | 45.5% |
| Median household income percentile among US ZIPs | 9th |
ZIP 46816 (36.03 square miles) is the trade area proxy; the 3-mile ring, 10-minute drive time and age cohorts were not obtained (see Conditions and Limitations). The 9th-percentile income ranking places the subject's revenue potential nearer the FDD Item 19 bottom third than the system average, which shapes the membership and Black Card assumptions below.
Demand and Penetration
Applying HFA's 26.1 percent 2025 penetration to the ZIP population, with an MMCG assumption that 92 percent of residents are aged 6 or older, gives a member pool of 4,686. That is below the subject's modeled 6,000 members, so the club must draw from beyond its ZIP, as a 20,001 SF HVLP box on an arterial normally does. HVLP density: HFA's 81 million members at 26.1 percent penetration imply a base population of 310.3 million; divided over about 2,694 US Planet Fitness clubs, that is about 115,200 residents per club. The Fort Wayne MSA is 416,257 residents over 4 clubs, or 104,064 per club, 10 percent denser than the national figure. A statewide Indiana count was not obtained.
The GLP-1 demand stress is modeled in both directions as an MMCG assumption: the downside case is 5 percent fewer joins; the upside, that GLP-1 users add strength training, is not quantified or credited.
Competitive Supply
| # | Facility | Address | Format | SF | Published monthly price (operator site, accessed 5 October 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Planet Fitness (subject) | 7528 S Anthony Blvd, 46816 | HVLP | 20,001 | Classic $15; PF Black Card $24.99; $49 annual fee |
| 2 | Renaissance Pointe YMCA | 2323 Bowser Ave, 46803 | Nonprofit YMCA with pool | Not public | Not published on pages retrieved |
| 3 | Planet Fitness Ft. Wayne (Southwest) | 6360 W Jefferson Blvd, 46804 | HVLP | Not public | Outside 3 miles |
| 4 | Planet Fitness Ft. Wayne (Dupont) | 1916 W Dupont Rd, 46818 | HVLP | Not public | Outside 3 miles |
| 5 | Planet Fitness Ft. Wayne (Northeast) | 4530 Maplecrest Rd, 46835 | HVLP | Not public | Classic $15; Black Card $24.99; outside 3 miles |
| 6 | Anytime Fitness (Southwest) | 5984 W Jefferson Blvd, 46804 | 24-hour franchise | Not public | Not published; outside 3 miles |
| 7 | Anytime Fitness (Georgetown Square) | 6520 E State Blvd, 46815 | 24-hour franchise | Not public | Not published; outside 3 miles |
| 8 | Crunch Fort Wayne (2026) | 4616 Coldwater Rd, 46825 | HVLP, Crunch 3.0 | 55,000 | Base $9.99 with annual commitment or $15.99; Peak $25.99; Peak Results $29.99 |
The census is incomplete; no independent gym, CrossFit box or studio was confirmed within 3 miles. Crunch Fort Wayne, about 9 to 10 miles north, is the only announced new HVLP club identified, and its Base tier undercuts the subject's Classic price.
Pricing and Membership
| Tier | Monthly | Annual fee | Startup | Modeled mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | $15.00 | $49 | $1 | 40% |
| PF Black Card | $24.99 | $49 | $1 | 60% |
The system Black Card penetration is 66.5 percent (FY2025 10-K); the model uses 60 percent (MMCG assumption) given the trade area's 9th-percentile income. Trailing members are modeled at 6,000 (MMCG assumption), 84 percent of the 7,182 system members per club, producing gross EFT of $1,761,468, between the Item 19 bottom-third average ($1,260,539) and middle-third median ($1,863,300). Annual fee collection is modeled at 85 percent and declines and returns at 7 percent, within the Item 19 corporate range of 2.3 to 38.1 percent.
Ramp and Membership Projection
| Trailing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average members | 6,000 | 5,850 | 6,050 | 6,200 | 6,300 | 6,350 |
| Black Card mix | 60% | 60% | 61% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| Black Card price | $24.99 | $24.99 | $24.99 | $26.99 | $26.99 | $26.99 |
| Classic price | $15 | $15 | $15 | $15 | $16 | $16 |
Attrition is benchmarked to HFA retention of 66.4 percent, implying 33.6 percent annual attrition and about 2,016 joins a year to hold 6,000 members. Year 1 dips 2.5 percent for re-equip and remodel disruption. Price steps are MMCG assumptions: Black Card to $26.99 in Year 3 and Classic to $16 in Year 4, deferred in light of the franchisor's paused national increase.
Project Cost Estimate
| Item | Cost | Cost in % | Cost per member |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | |||
| Goodwill | $1,400,000 | 44.40% | $233.33 |
| FF&E (leasehold improvements and non-fitness equipment) | $400,000 | 12.69% | $66.67 |
| Franchise rights (remaining term) | $200,000 | 6.34% | $33.33 |
| Subtotal, acquisition | $2,000,000 | 63.43% | $333.33 |
| Transfer and Closing | |||
| Franchise transfer fee and franchisor expenses (FDD Item 6) | $20,000 | 0.63% | $3.33 |
| Legal (MMCG assumption) | $40,000 | 1.27% | $6.67 |
| QoE report (not triggered; price under $3M) | $0 | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| Business valuation (MMCG assumption) | $7,500 | 0.24% | $1.25 |
| Lease assignment and estoppel (MMCG assumption) | $7,500 | 0.24% | $1.25 |
| Subtotal, transfer and closing | $75,000 | 2.38% | $12.50 |
| Required Capital | |||
| Re-equip at transfer (FDD $333,000 to $995,000) | $650,000 | 20.62% | $108.33 |
| Remodel refresh (FDD low end) | $250,000 | 7.93% | $41.67 |
| Subtotal, required capital | $900,000 | 28.55% | $150.00 |
| Financial Cost | |||
| 7(a) guaranty fee on $1,875,000 guaranteed portion | $67,813 | 2.15% | $11.30 |
| Lender packaging (MMCG assumption) | $10,000 | 0.32% | $1.67 |
| Working capital reserve (2.1x modeled shortfall) | $100,000 | 3.17% | $16.67 |
| Subtotal, financial cost | $177,813 | 5.64% | $29.64 |
| Total project cost | $3,152,813 | 100.00% | $525.47 |
Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG
As proposed, the $2,400,000 price (goodwill $1,750,000, FF&E $450,000, franchise rights $200,000) raises total project cost to $3,572,940, including an $87,940 guaranty fee.
Loan Assumptions
| Term | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Prime rate | 7.00% | Effective 17 September 2026, after the FOMC's 25 bp hike of 16 September 2026, its first since 2023 |
| Spread | 2.75% | MMCG assumption, within the SOP maximum for loans over $350,000, to be confirmed |
| Note rate | 9.75% variable | |
| Term and amortization | 10 years, fully amortizing | Appendix 15: change-of-ownership loans must not amortize beyond 10 years |
| Guaranty | 75% | Loans over $150,000 |
| Annual debt service, restructured | $392,310 on $2,500,000 | Annual constant 0.156924 |
| Annual debt service, proposed | $504,605 on $3,215,600 | Same constant |
| FY2027 guaranty fee basis | 3.5% of the guaranteed portion to $1M plus 3.75% above | SBA Information Notice 5000-881797 via NAGGL |
Sources and Uses (restructured)
| Source | Amount | Share | Equity bucket |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBA 7(a) loan | $2,500,000 | 79.3% | |
| Buyer cash | $495,213 | 15.7% | Unlimited |
| Seller note, full standby for loan term | $157,600 | 5.0% | Limited |
| Outside investor equity | $0 | 0.0% | Limited |
| Total | $3,152,813 | 100.0% |
Cap test: the required injection is 10 percent of $3,152,813, or $315,281, and the 50 percent Limited-source cap is $157,641. Limited sources of $157,600 are within the cap. As proposed, buyer cash of $178,700 and a $178,640 standby note meet the cap exactly.
SBA Program Compliance
| Test | Requirement and citation | Proposed | Restructured |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical DSCR | 1.25x on last fiscal year or two-year average, historical or adjusted; SOP 50 10 8.1 Appendix 15 | 0.99x: fails | 1.28x: passes (modeled TTM) |
| QoE trigger | Business Purchase Price of $3M or more; Appendix 15 | $2.4M: not triggered | $2.0M: not triggered |
| Equity injection | 10% of total project cost, not reducible; Appendix 15 | $357,340: meets | $652,813: exceeds |
| Limited-source cap | Standby debt plus non-controlling minority equity at or below 50% of the required injection; Appendix 15 | At cap | Within cap |
| 7(a) Small Loan path | Not available for any change of ownership; SOP 50 10 8.1 | Standard underwriting | Standard underwriting |
| Franchise Directory | Brand must be listed; Directory reinstated under SOP 50 10 8 | Not checked in this pass | Condition |
| Credit Elsewhere | Required; SOP 50 10 8 | Lender certification | Lender certification |
| Size standard, NAICS 713940 | 13 CFR 121.201 | Not retrieved; condition | Same |
| Personal guaranties | Owners of 20% or more | Required | Required |
| Governing SOP | SOP 50 10 8.1 for loans numbered on or after 1 October 2026 (Information Notices 5000-880695, 5000-882227) | Applies | Applies |
| Combined program limits | 7(a) maximum $5M; 7(a) plus 504 $10M from 4 July 2026 (Policy Notice 5000-879058) | Within | Within |
Operating Expenses
| Line (trailing, modeled) | Amount | % of revenue | Per member |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | $208,010 | 12.51% | $34.67 |
| CAM and landlord insurance pass-through (MMCG) | $30,000 | 1.80% | $5.00 |
| Property tax pass-through (MMCG) | $45,000 | 2.71% | $7.50 |
| Payroll: GM $62,000; assistant manager $44,000; trainer $36,000; 5.5 FTE team members $165,000; taxes and benefits $18,000 (8.5 FTE) | $325,000 | 19.54% | $54.17 |
| Royalty 7% of EFT plus join fees | $131,767 | 7.92% | $21.96 |
| National Advertising Fund 2% | $35,229 | 2.12% | $5.87 |
| Utilities | $72,000 | 4.33% | $12.00 |
| Equipment maintenance and supplies | $70,000 | 4.21% | $11.67 |
| Insurance (FDD first-year premium $25,000 to $45,000) | $30,000 | 1.80% | $5.00 |
| Software and EFT processing (MMCG) | $40,000 | 2.41% | $6.67 |
| Local marketing 7% of monthly EFT | $105,810 | 6.36% | $17.64 |
| Repairs (MMCG) | $25,000 | 1.50% | $4.17 |
| Other operating and administrative (MMCG) | $45,000 | 2.71% | $7.50 |
| Management fee (owner-operated, GM on payroll) | $0 | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,162,816 | 69.92% | $193.80 |
| EBITDA | $500,349 | 30.08% | $83.39 |
| Replacement reserve ($650,000 over 7 years) | $93,000 | 5.59% | $15.50 |
| CFADS | $407,349 | 24.49% | $67.89 |
Payroll sits between the FDD Item 19 corporate bottom third ($309,345) and middle third ($346,644); the role split is an MMCG assumption, as no published HVLP staffing benchmark was retrieved.
Margin reconciliation: the modeled 30.1 percent EBITDA margin sits below the 37.8 percent Planet Fitness corporate-club segment margin and above the 23.6 percent HFA industry median. The gap to the corporate figure reflects the corporate portfolio's scale and bulk insurance pricing, the subject's revenue near the bottom-to-middle third boundary (where disclosed Item 19 margins run 21 to 36 percent), local marketing at the FDD floor, and a franchisee's full royalty and ad fund burden. The HFA median covers all club formats, including labor-intensive full-service clubs, which explains why it is lower.
Five-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage
| Trailing (modeled) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members | 6,000 | 5,850 | 6,050 | 6,200 | 6,300 | 6,350 |
| Black Card dues | $1,079,568 | $1,052,579 | $1,106,857 | $1,244,995 | $1,265,075 | $1,275,116 |
| Classic dues | $432,000 | $421,200 | $424,620 | $424,080 | $459,648 | $463,296 |
| Annual fees (85% collected) | $249,900 | $243,653 | $251,983 | $258,230 | $262,395 | $264,478 |
| Declines and returns (7%) | ($123,303) | ($120,220) | ($124,842) | ($134,911) | ($139,098) | ($140,202) |
| Ancillary | $25,000 | $25,750 | $26,523 | $27,318 | $28,138 | $28,982 |
| Total revenue | $1,663,165 | $1,622,962 | $1,685,141 | $1,819,712 | $1,876,158 | $1,891,670 |
| Operating expenses | $1,162,816 | $1,176,704 | $1,207,758 | $1,253,776 | $1,294,079 | $1,319,485 |
| EBITDA | $500,349 | $446,258 | $477,383 | $565,936 | $582,079 | $572,185 |
| Replacement reserve | $93,000 | $93,000 | $93,000 | $93,000 | $93,000 | $93,000 |
| CFADS | $407,349 | $353,258 | $384,383 | $472,936 | $489,079 | $479,185 |
| Debt service (restructured) | $392,310 | $392,310 | $392,310 | $392,310 | $392,310 | $392,310 |
| DSCR on EBITDA | 1.28x | 1.14x | 1.22x | 1.44x | 1.48x | 1.46x |
| DSCR on CFADS | 1.04x | 0.90x | 0.98x | 1.21x | 1.25x | 1.22x |
Fixed operating lines grow 3 percent a year (MMCG assumption). Rent holds at $208,010 to October 2029, then steps 5 percent to $218,411. Royalty, ad fund and local marketing track EFT at FDD rates.
Historical-year DSCR test (separate). Modeled trailing EBITDA of $500,349 divided by restructured debt service of $392,310 is 1.28x, passing the 1.25x minimum. Against proposed debt service of $504,605 the same EBITDA gives 0.99x, which fails. The maximum loan supportable at 1.25x is $2,550,800.
Break-Even Analysis
Stabilized contribution is $233.13 per member: revenue of $277.19 less royalty, ad fund and local marketing of $44.06. Fixed costs are $898,474.
| Coverage level (CFADS, after $93,000 reserve) | Members | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| NOI break-even (EBITDA = 0) | 3,854 | $1,068,290 |
| 1.00x | 5,936 | $1,645,400 |
| 1.15x | 6,188 | $1,715,252 |
| 1.25x | 6,357 | $1,762,097 |
| 1.35x | 6,525 | $1,808,665 |
On the Appendix 15 pre-reserve basis, 1.25x requires 5,958 members, 42 below the modeled 6,000.
Sensitivity Analysis
| Case (restructured, stabilized basis) | EBITDA | DSCR on EBITDA | DSCR on CFADS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $500,349 | 1.28x | 1.04x |
| Attrition 25% (steady state 8,064 members, joins held at 2,016) | $981,486 | 2.50x | 2.26x |
| Attrition 32% (6,300 members) | $570,245 | 1.45x | 1.22x |
| Attrition 40% (5,040 members) | $276,501 | 0.70x | 0.47x |
| Dues 10% lower | $383,958 | 0.98x | 0.74x |
| New HVLP competitor within 3 miles (10% member loss, MMCG) | $360,428 | 0.92x | 0.68x |
| GLP-1 downside, 5% fewer joins (5,700 members) | $430,367 | 1.10x | 0.86x |
| Rate +100 bp (10.75%; debt service $409,018) | $500,349 | 1.22x | 1.00x |
| Rate +200 bp (11.75%; debt service $426,090) | $500,349 | 1.17x | 0.96x |
| Re-equip 20% over, debt-funded ($780,000; debt service $412,710; reserve $111,600) | $500,349 | 1.21x | 0.94x |
| Re-equip 20% over, equity-funded | $500,349 | 1.28x | 0.99x |
| Landlord refuses lease assignment | Not meaningful | Transaction fails | Transaction fails |
The case fails 1.25x under a dues cut, a nearby competitor, the GLP-1 downside, 40 percent attrition and either rate shock. A refused assignment ends the transaction: relocation would require a new build at the FDD Item 7 range of $1,282,500 to $5,386,000.
Risk Factors and Mitigants
| Risk | Evidence | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Brand member growth | 2026 same-club guidance cut to about 1%, with 150 bp attributed to the paused Black Card increase (7 May 2026); shares fell more than 31% that day | Price steps deferred to Year 3; restructured equity at 20.7% |
| Thin historical cushion | 42 members above the 1.25x break-even | QoE-style cash proof recommended though not required under $3M |
| Rate path | The Fed hiked 16 September 2026 and signaled another | Rate cap or fixed-rate election |
| Low-income trade area | ZIP median household income $45,343, 9th percentile | Classic tier at $15; 60% Black Card mix assumed rather than 66.5% |
| HVLP competition | Crunch Base at $9.99 with commitment | Crunch is about 9 to 10 miles away; monitor new leases within 3 miles |
| Sector default history | 17.1% resolved default rate for NAICS 713940 (PeerSense, third-party) | Full personal guaranties; working capital reserve |
| Re-equip and remodel cycle | FDD re-equip every 5 to 9 years; remodel as often as every 12 | Funded at close; $93,000 annual reserve |
| Lease and operator identity | Guarantor described as a Planet Fitness subsidiary in one record and as a large franchisee's guaranty in another | Estoppel, SNDA and franchisor confirmation of the seller entity |
Conditions and Limitations
- The seller's financial statements are not public; the trailing EBITDA is modeled. The lender must recompute DSCR on tax returns.
- The operator may be corporate-affiliated (ALO describes the guarantor as a Planet Fitness subsidiary), while the 2021 sale report described the guaranty as from a large franchisee operator with close to 40 locations. If the operator is corporate-affiliated, the transaction would be a refranchising sale, which this study does not verify.
- The lease assignment clause, landlord consent, personal guaranty requirements, exact expiration and current landlord of record are not public.
- Conflicts in public records are unresolved: lot size (9.90 AC versus 0.46 AC), escalators (10% in 2024 versus 5% every 5 years) and property tax ($8,946.69 versus a $4,866,000 assessment).
- The remaining franchise term and any re-equip or remodel conditions the franchisor imposes at transfer are not public; FDD inputs are drawn from a third-party summary of the FDD issued 22 May 2026, not the FDD itself.
- No INDOT traffic count for the frontage was obtained; Anthony Boulevard at the site appears to be a city street, not US 27.
- The 3-mile ring, 10-minute drive time, age cohorts and a statewide Planet Fitness club count were not obtained; ZIP 46816 serves as the trade area proxy.
- The competitor census is incomplete; YMCA pricing is not published on the pages retrieved.
- The Franchise Directory listing, the NAICS 713940 size standard and the maximum allowable spread were not verified in this pass.
- No GLP-1 demand source was retrieved for this subject; the GLP-1 case is an MMCG assumption consistent with our standard stress exhibit.
- SOP 50 10 8.1 provisions are cited from Information Notices and practitioner summaries, not the SOP text; section numbering within Appendix 15, and the reported special-use projection path, require confirmation.
- HVLP resale multiples are not published by the franchisor. The purchase price is an MMCG assumption benchmarked to one franchise-gym listing at 3.6x SDE.
What the Lender Received
- The six-candidate screen and the selection rationale
- Sourced input tables for franchisor, FDD, site, lease, market and SBA inputs
- The project cost estimate, sources and uses, and the Limited-source cap test
- The Appendix 15 compliance table, as proposed and as restructured
- The operating expense build, margin reconciliation and five-year pro forma
- The break-even table and twelve-case sensitivity table
- The conditions list identifying the documents required before credit approval
Sources (accessed 5 October 2026 unless noted)
- Planet Fitness, Inc., FY2025 Form 10-K and annual report; Q4/FY2025 Form 8-K (24 February 2026); Q2 2026 Form 8-K and Form 10-Q (6 August 2026)
- VetMyFranchise, summary of the Planet Fitness Franchising LLC FDD issued 22 May 2026, Items 5, 6, 7, 17 and 19
- CNBC, "Planet Fitness stock plunges 30% after company slashes guidance," 7 May 2026; SGI Europe, 8 May 2026; Yahoo Finance, May 2026
- StockAnalysis, Planet Fitness market capitalization, 2 October 2026; PR Newswire, securities class action notice, 4 August 2026
- Health & Fitness Association, 2025 US Benchmarking Report, 2026 Consumer Report and FIT Tracker
- planetfitness.com, Fort Wayne club pages and directory
- FW Business, Hanley Investment Group sale report (October 2021) and club opening report
- LoopNet Listing 23191117; PropertyShark (ALO Property Group listing); IRMLS MLS 202421905 (listed 11 June 2024)
- HomeTownLocator and zip-codes.com, ZIP 46816 profile (ACS 2020 to 2024) and Fort Wayne CBSA
- PR Newswire, "Crunch Franchise Brings State-of-the-Art Crunch 3.0 Gym to Fort Wayne, Indiana," 12 March 2026; crunch.com Fort Wayne page
- fwymca.org, Renaissance Pointe YMCA pages; Anytime Fitness Fort Wayne listings
- CNBC, Fed rate decision, 16 September 2026; PrimeRates.com, prime rate 7.00%, updated 1 October 2026
- NAGGL, SBA Information Notice 5000-881797, FY2027 7(a) and 504 fees, 4 September 2026
- SBA Information Notices 5000-880695 (14 August 2026) and 5000-882227 (25 September 2026); SBA Policy Notice 5000-879058
- MMCG Invest, "SBA Stopped Lending on Projections," 6 September 2026; Loan Analytics, "SOP 50 10 8.1 for Lenders"; Pioneer Capital Advisory
- Matthews, Big-Box Net Lease Tenant Report, 24 March 2026; REBusinessOnline (Fargo sale, 17 June 2025); Revere CRE; Brevitas; Marcus & Millichap; SRS Real Estate Partners
- SBALenderData, PeerSense and Lumos Data, NAICS 713940 and 7(a) statistics (third-party computations)
- BizQuest listing BW2229620; Franchise Flippers; BizBuySell
- Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG (house cost reference)
