U.S. Multifamily Market Outlook 2026: Current Conditions, Investment Trends, and Five-Year Forecast

Market Performance Overview: Vacancy, Rent Growth, and Absorption Trends

The U.S. multifamily sector enters 2026 at a critical inflection point. After absorbing the largest wave of new apartment supply since the 1980s, the national market is finally approaching a rebalancing threshold. However, the path to equilibrium remains uneven, shaped by a persistent supply overhang in select geographies, decelerating employment growth, and a construction pipeline that, while thinning rapidly, continues to deliver units into an already soft rental environment.

According to the MMCG database, the national apartment inventory stands at approximately 20.7 million units across roughly 433,000 buildings as of the first quarter of 2026 (1). The national vacancy rate has risen to 8.6%, marking the highest level since the post-financial-crisis recovery period and materially exceeding the historical average of approximately 6.9%. This elevated vacancy reflects the cumulative impact of nearly 1.8 million units delivered over the past three years, a supply surge that has outstripped even robust absorption in the post-pandemic period (1).

Trailing twelve-month net absorption totals approximately 397,000 units, a figure that, while historically strong by pre-pandemic standards, falls well short of the 500,000+ units delivered over the same period (1). The absorption-to-delivery ratio has consequently remained below 1.0x for most of the past two years, a structural imbalance that has eroded occupancy across virtually every major metropolitan area. Fourth-quarter 2025 absorption cooled to roughly 55,000 units, the first quarter below that threshold since late 2022, signaling the end of a seven-quarter run of absorption above 100,000 units (1).

National asking rent growth has decelerated to just 0.1% year-over-year, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010 (1). Effective rent growth, which accounts for concessions and other landlord incentives, stands at 0.6%. This near-stagnation in top-line rents reflects the competitive dynamics of a market flooded with newly delivered Class A inventory, where operators are prioritizing occupancy over pricing power. The MMCG database indicates that the national average asking rent is approximately $1,769 per unit($1.97 per square foot), with effective rents averaging $1,748 per unit (1).

Rent performance varies considerably by building quality. The 1 & 2 Star segment posts the strongest growth at 1.1%, benefiting from limited new supply and a captive renter base with fewer alternatives. The 3 Star segment is growing at a modest 0.3%, while the 4 & 5 Star segment, where roughly 85% of recent completions are concentrated, registers only 0.2% growth (1). This quality-tier divergence is a defining characteristic of the current cycle: the premium segment, which drove outsized returns from 2015 through 2022, is now bearing the full weight of the supply correction.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Multifamily National Key Indicators, Q1 2026

Segment	Units	Vacancy Rate	Asking Rent	Absorption (Qtr)	Delivered (Qtr)	Under Constr.
4 & 5 Star	6,512,000	11.1%	$2,185	54,034	57,762	373,526
3 Star	8,094,000	8.3%	$1,620	9,067	25,441	173,739
1 & 2 Star	6,141,000	6.3%	$1,366	(6,076)	454	1,860
National	20,747,000	8.6%	$1,769	57,025	83,657	549,125

Source: MMCG database. Data as of Q1 2026. Absorption and delivery figures are quarterly.

The Supply Wave: Navigating the Largest Construction Cycle in Four Decades

The multifamily construction cycle that began accelerating in 2021 has produced the most significant supply expansion the U.S. apartment market has experienced since the early 1980s. Annual net deliveries peaked above 690,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 40-year high (1). This unprecedented volume was concentrated overwhelmingly in the Sun Belt and Mountain West regions, fueled by low capital costs, strong migration-driven demand, and permissive entitlement environments.

The tide, however, has turned decisively. Annual supply declined approximately 25% in 2025 to roughly 523,000 units and is forecast to contract by an additional 36% in 2026 to approximately 333,000 units, the lowest annual delivery total since 2014 (1). Construction starts have plummeted to their lowest level in more than a decade, pressured by declining rents in oversupplied markets, extended lease-up timelines, materially higher capital costs, and notably tighter construction lending standards (2). The MMCG database estimates that construction costs have risen approximately 39% since 2020, nearly double the rate of general inflation over the same period (3).

The construction pipeline has contracted by more than 50% from its peak. Units under construction fell from approximately 1.18 million in Q1 2023 to roughly 579,000 by Q4 2025, with further declines anticipated throughout 2026 (1). This pipeline compression is not uniform. Several large Sun Belt markets are experiencing dramatic pullbacks: Austin deliveries are projected to decline 47% in 2026, Denver supply is expected to be cut by more than half, and Phoenix faces an additional 40% decline following an 18% reduction in 2025 (1).

Conversely, select gateway and secondary markets continue to post elevated or expanding construction pipelines. Miami and Charlotte lead nationally with more than 8% of existing inventory under construction, the highest ratios in the country (1). Los Angeles, Boston, Columbus, and San Diego are among the markets with rising supply. The industry is generating estimated revenue of approximately $94 billion in 2025, with forecasts projecting growth at a compound annual rate of approximately 1.4% to reach roughly $101 billion by 2030 (4).

The National Multifamily Housing Council estimates that the U.S. needs to construct 4.3 million new apartments by 2035 to adequately address the structural housing shortage (5). Against this backdrop, the current pullback in starts raises a meaningful concern: the market may be over-correcting. By 2027 to 2028, the sharp decline in new construction could generate a renewed undersupply condition, particularly in high-growth markets where household formation continues to outpace completions.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Multifamily Supply and Demand Trends, 2019-2030F

Year	Inventory (Units)	Deliveries	Net Absorption	Vacancy	Constr. Ratio
2019	17,544,000	377,000	346,000	6.6%	1.1
2020	17,997,000	455,000	397,000	6.8%	1.1
2021	18,413,000	416,000	695,000	5.1%	0.6
2022	18,853,000	440,000	141,000	6.6%	3.1
2023	19,445,000	592,000	324,000	7.8%	1.8
2024	20,136,000	692,000	536,000	8.3%	1.3
2025	20,664,000	528,000	443,000	8.5%	1.2
2026F	21,022,000	358,000	322,000	8.5%	1.1
2027F	21,276,000	254,000	313,000	8.2%	0.8
2028F	21,478,000	202,000	259,000	7.8%	0.8
2029F	21,694,000	216,000	243,000	7.6%	0.9
2030F	21,914,000	219,000	236,000	7.5%	0.9

Source: MMCG database. F = Forecast. Construction Ratio = Deliveries / Absorption; values below 1.0 indicate demand exceeding supply.

Regional Divergence: Sun Belt Correction Versus Midwest and Northeast Stability

Geographic variation remains the defining feature of multifamily performance in 2026. The narrative is one of two Americas: oversupplied Sun Belt and Mountain West markets working through a painful correction, and relatively balanced Midwest and Northeast markets where limited construction has preserved pricing power and occupancy.

Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas, vacancy is highest in Sarasota (17.6%), Huntsville (17.4%), San Antonio (15.8%), Memphis (15.4%), and Baton Rouge (14.1%) (1). Austin, which became the poster child of post-pandemic apartment overbuilding, carries a vacancy rate of 13.7% and the steepest rent declines in the nation at -4.8% year-over-year. Denver (-3.6%), Phoenix (-2.9%), Tampa (-2.9%), and San Antonio (-3.3%) round out the weakest performers (1). Concessions are widespread in these markets, with Austin leading nationally at 2.4% of effective rent, followed by Sarasota at 3.2% and Phoenix at 2.3% (1).

In stark contrast, markets with constrained supply pipelines are posting strong rent growth. San Francisco leads the nation at 6.5% asking rent growth, followed by San Jose (3.9%), Norfolk (4.2%), Rochester (3.6%), and Chicago (2.9%) (1). The Midwest and Northeast collectively benefit from structurally lower construction activity, tighter land-use regulations, and stable employment bases in healthcare, education, and professional services.

New York remains the dominant absorption market, recording approximately 27,850 units of trailing twelve-month absorption, the highest of any metropolitan area nationally (1). Its vacancy rate of 3.1% is the lowest in the country, supported by chronic undersupply and persistently strong renter demand. Dallas-Fort Worth ranks second in absorption at 24,280 units, though its vacancy of 12.2% reflects the enormous scale of its construction pipeline (1). The recovery trajectory for oversupplied Sun Belt markets hinges critically on the pace of pipeline deceleration. Most forecasters expect absorption to overtake deliveries in these markets by the second half of 2026, setting the stage for vacancy compression and firmer rent growth entering 2027 (6).

Exhibit 3: Selected Metropolitan Performance Snapshot, Q1 2026

Market	Vacancy	Asking Rent	YoY Rent Growth	12-Mo Absorption	Under Constr.
New York	3.1%	$3,551	+1.9%	27,850	42,512
San Francisco	4.2%	$3,427	+6.5%	3,136	2,925
Chicago	5.1%	$1,929	+2.9%	4,222	9,121
Dallas-Fort Worth	12.2%	$1,541	-2.1%	24,280	29,034
Austin	13.7%	$1,525	-4.8%	19,846	15,441
Phoenix	12.2%	$1,563	-2.9%	18,001	18,553
Denver	12.1%	$1,789	-3.6%	8,752	10,329
Charlotte	12.6%	$1,620	-2.1%	12,985	18,144
Seattle	7.1%	$2,076	0.0%	8,810	13,878
Miami	7.5%	$2,462	0.0%	6,460	13,599

Source: MMCG database. Data as of Q1 2026.

Structural Demand Drivers: Demographics, Affordability, and Household Formation

The long-term demand thesis for U.S. multifamily housing remains fundamentally intact, supported by powerful demographic and affordability dynamics that transcend cyclical softness. Understanding these structural tailwinds is essential for investors and lenders evaluating the sector's medium-term trajectory.

The homeownership affordability gap has widened to unprecedented levels. The monthly cost premium to purchase versus rent a comparable home has reached approximately 105% nationally, meaning prospective buyers face monthly housing costs more than double what they would pay as renters (2). Only an estimated 12.7% of current renters can afford a median-priced home (2). The median existing home price stands at approximately $397,000 against a median household income of roughly $84,500, producing a price-to-income ratio of approximately 5.0x, well above the historical norm (7). This structural lock-out is reinforced by the mortgage rate environment: despite Federal Reserve rate reductions totaling 175 basis points since September 2024, 30-year mortgage rates remain above 6%, far from the sub-4% levels that approximately 48% of existing homeowners currently enjoy (8).

Generation Z is emerging as the primary engine of new renter household formation. Encompassing approximately 68 million Americans, Gen Z is currently the only generational cohort adding net renter households, as millennial renter counts have plateaued (9). The median age of first-time homebuyers has reached 40 years, an all-time high, up from 33 just five years ago (10). Roughly one in three Gen Z adults reports that homeownership appears financially unattainable (9). This demographic reality is creating a deep pool of demand-by-necessity renters who are unlikely to transition to homeownership in the near term.

Immigration policy shifts introduce a meaningful demand headwind. From 2021 through 2024, immigration accounted for essentially all net renter household growth nationally (11). The surge in immigration during 2022 and 2023 added approximately 6 million people to the U.S. population, roughly triple the 2010 to 2019 annual average (12). However, restrictive immigration measures implemented in 2025 have sharply reduced inflows, with projections indicating a 75% decline from 2024 levels (11). The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies estimates that under a low-immigration scenario, annual renter household formation could decline by 74,000 to 86,000 units, a reduction of 16% to 42% from recent trends (13). This policy-driven demand reduction represents one of the most significant uncertainties in the multifamily outlook.

Household formation and the structural housing deficit persist. The U.S. population of approximately 342 million is forming roughly 1.41 million new households annually, against housing starts of approximately 1.36 million, perpetuating an annual deficit (1). The cumulative housing shortage is estimated at 4.0 to 4.7 million units nationally (14). Rental households reached a record 22.4 million in 2025, and cost-burdened renters (those paying more than 30% of income on housing) have reached a record 22.7 million households (15)(7).

Investment Market: Transaction Volume, Cap Rates, and Pricing Dynamics

The multifamily investment market has regained meaningful momentum entering 2026, though transaction volume remains well below the 2021 to 2022 peak. The recovery reflects a confluence of improving financing conditions, narrowing bid-ask spreads, and growing investor confidence that the market's cyclical trough is approaching.

Total apartment sales volume reached approximately $135 billion in 2025, representing two consecutive years of growth from the 2023 trough (1). January 2026 transaction activity was up 27% year-over-year, suggesting accelerating momentum (1). According to separate industry tracking, total apartment investment volume reached approximately $165 billion for 2025, up 9% year-over-year, with individual asset sales rising 20% to approximately $137 billion (16). Gateway metros led activity: New York approached $10 billion in trades, Los Angeles neared $8 billion, and Atlanta and Seattle each recorded close to $6 billion (1).

Cap rate stabilization is providing pricing clarity. The MMCG database indicates that cap rates for 4 & 5 Star assets have stabilized in the 5.0% to 5.5% range, with premier assets occasionally dipping into the upper-4% territory (1). Pricing in this cohort frequently exceeds $300,000 per unit. Comparatively, 3 Star properties trade between 5.75% and 6.25% with pricing near $175,000 to $250,000 per unit. Cap rates for 2 Star properties have drifted higher, often settling in the mid-6% to 7% range with pricing typically below $150,000 per unit (1). Across the broader market, cap rates have held at approximately 5.7% for seven to eight consecutive quarters, the longest unchanged streak in 25 years (17). Analysts note that fundamental conditions support a rate closer to 5.1%, suggesting approximately 60 basis points of potential compression (18).

Buyer composition reflects a cautiously optimistic market. Private investors, typically nimbler and more opportunistic, accounted for more than half of acquisitions in 2025, while institutional managers represented roughly one-quarter (1). REITs doubled their market share from approximately 3% of purchases in 2023 to 6% in 2025 (19). Asset values have reset 20% to 30% below the 2022 peak, and elevated replacement costs create what many observers describe as a rational and compelling entry point for new investment (20). Sentiment data from the January 2026 NMHC conference showed 70% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six to twelve months, with only 4% anticipating deterioration, the lowest pessimism reading in the survey's history (5).

Exhibit 4: U.S. Multifamily Sales and Pricing Trends, 2019-2026 YTD

Year	Deals	Volume	Avg Price/Unit	Market Price/Unit	Cap Rate
2019	23,459	$163.4B	$157,000	$207,800	5.7%
2020	17,638	$118.2B	$155,500	$222,900	5.4%
2021	25,125	$262.0B	$196,000	$263,800	4.9%
2022	21,988	$225.8B	$218,300	$252,000	5.3%
2023	12,913	$87.2B	$195,100	$226,700	6.0%
2024	14,557	$115.4B	$211,100	$226,900	6.1%
2025	18,252	$131.0B	$213,000	$231,900	6.1%
2026 YTD	2,486	$15.0B	$190,500	$232,600	6.1%

Source: MMCG database. Market pricing reflects estimated price movement of all properties, not just transacted assets.

Capital Markets and Financing: Debt Maturities, Agency Lending, and Credit Conditions

The financing landscape for multifamily assets is undergoing a significant recalibration. While credit conditions have improved materially from the acute tightening of 2023, the sector faces a formidable loan maturity wall that could reshape transaction activity and asset pricing through the second half of 2026.

The Federal Reserve has delivered meaningful rate relief. Through three consecutive 25-basis-point reductions in late 2025, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, with markets expecting an additional reduction in 2026 (1). However, long-term Treasury yields have remained bound in the low-to-mid 4% range, limiting the pass-through to mortgage rates. Agency multifamily rates start as low as 5.1%, while the average commercial real estate loan rate settled at approximately 6.2% in 2025, compared to roughly 4.8% on maturing debt, creating a significant refinancing cost gap (21).

GSE lending capacity has expanded substantially. The Federal Housing Finance Agency set 2026 loan purchase caps at $88 billion each for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a combined $176 billion, representing a 20% increase over 2025 levels (22). At least 50% of this capacity must be directed toward mission-driven affordable housing, with workforce housing loans excluded from the caps. In 2025, the two agencies financed a record $152 billion in multifamily property loans, up 25% from 2024 (23). Total multifamily originations are projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2026, a 20% increase over 2025 (24).

The maturity wall presents both risk and opportunity. Approximately $162 billion in multifamily loans are scheduled to mature in 2026, a 56% increase from the prior year, with additional maturities of $168 billion anticipated in 2027 (24). An estimated 60% of apartment loans originated during the 2021 to 2022 vintage are expected to come due in the second half of 2026, potentially triggering a fresh wave of refinancing stress and, in some cases, forced dispositions (16). CMBS multifamily delinquency rates have risen to 6.6%, nearly six times higher than bank loan delinquencies at 1.3% (16). Total distressed commercial real estate volume reached $127 billion in the third quarter of 2025, with multifamily accounting for approximately $23 billion (16).

For well-capitalized investors, this maturity wall represents a significant sourcing opportunity. Borrowers facing refinancing at rates 200 to 300 basis points above their existing debt may be motivated sellers, particularly for assets in oversupplied markets where net operating income has declined. Private fund vehicles launched between 2022 and 2024 hold an estimated $275 billion in assets under management with approximately $79 billion deployed, suggesting substantial dry powder available for deployment into distressed or transitional opportunities (16).

Investment Opportunities: Value-Add, Workforce Housing, and Build-to-Rent

The current market environment, characterized by elevated vacancy, decelerating rents, and pricing resets, creates differentiated opportunities for investors with sector expertise and patient capital. Three investment themes stand out as particularly compelling in the 2026 to 2028 window.

Value-add acquisition in recovering Sun Belt markets. With asset values 20% to 30% below the 2022 peak and replacement costs having risen nearly 39% since 2020, the gap between acquisition cost and replacement cost has widened to levels not seen since 2012 (2)(3). In markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Denver, where construction pipelines are contracting 40% to 50%, investors acquiring stabilized assets at current pricing stand to benefit from the supply correction as it translates into firmer occupancy and rent growth by 2027. The key underwriting discipline is granular submarket selection: properties in infill locations with limited competitive supply and proximity to employment centers will outperform suburban assets exposed to continued deliveries.

Workforce and middle-market housing. The 3 Star segment, encompassing roughly 8.1 million units nationally, remains chronically undersupplied relative to demand. While the 4 & 5 Star segment has borne the brunt of the construction wave, 3 Star inventory growth averaged just 1.2% annually from 2019 through 2025 (1). Vacancy in this segment stands at 8.3%, elevated but below the premium tier, and rents of $1,620 per unit are affordable for a broader renter base. Workforce housing benefits from structural demand tailwinds, including the affordability gap with homeownership and stable employment in healthcare, education, and government sectors.

Build-to-rent and horizontal multifamily. The build-to-rent (BTR) segment continues to attract institutional capital as developers seek alternatives to conventional high-rise construction. BTR appeals to renters seeking single-family living without homeownership commitments and generally achieves lower turnover and higher renewal rates than conventional apartments. In markets where entitlement timelines and construction costs make conventional mid-rise development infeasible, horizontal BTR formats offer a compelling path to deployment.

Risks and Uncertainties: Tariffs, Regulation, Economic Headwinds, and Policy Shifts

Despite the constructive medium-term outlook, several material risks warrant careful monitoring.

Trade policy and tariff-driven cost inflation. Higher tariffs implemented in 2025 are beginning to appear in construction cost data, with project abandonments surging 41% in November 2025 alone (3). Analysts project all-in construction cost inflation of 3.5% to 4.0% for 2026, which, combined with still-elevated base costs, makes new development pencil only in markets with the strongest rent growth fundamentals (3). If tariffs escalate further, the already-depressed construction start activity could remain suppressed beyond current forecasts, exacerbating the undersupply condition projected for 2028 and beyond.

Regulatory and rent control risk. More than 130 local rent control measures are currently under consideration across the United States (5). While the majority are unlikely to pass, the expanding geographic reach of rent regulation proposals introduces underwriting uncertainty for investors in markets historically characterized by landlord-friendly regulatory environments. Oregon, California, and several large metropolitan areas have already implemented some form of rent growth limitation, and additional legislation is anticipated.

Employment deceleration and consumer stress. Job growth slowed notably through 2025, with revisions showing 400,000 fewer positions added than previously reported (1). The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% to 4.5%, and the labor market has shifted to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium (1). A K-shaped consumer economy has emerged: higher-income households are supported by equity and home price appreciation, while lower-income renters face elevated credit card delinquencies and constrained borrowing capacity (1). Youth unemployment among ages 20 to 28 stands at 7.4%, nearly double the national average, which has direct implications for apartment demand in urban markets targeting young professionals (6).

Insurance cost escalation. Rising property insurance premiums, particularly in coastal and disaster-prone Sun Belt markets, are emerging as a material headwind to operating margins. Annual premium increases of 15% to 30% have become common in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana, compressing net operating income and potentially impairing debt service coverage ratios for leveraged assets.

Strategic Implications and Five-Year Outlook

The U.S. multifamily market stands at the threshold of a meaningful cyclical transition. The supply correction now underway will fundamentally reshape the competitive landscape over the next three to five years, creating both near-term challenges for operators in oversupplied markets and compelling opportunities for investors with disciplined underwriting and sufficient patience. Our analysis yields the following strategic conclusions:

Vacancy has likely peaked. The MMCG database forecasts national vacancy stabilizing at approximately 8.5% through 2026 before beginning a gradual decline to 7.5% by 2030 (1). The inflection point occurs when absorption overtakes deliveries on a sustained basis, which forecasts suggest will occur in the second half of 2026 nationally and as early as late 2027 for the most oversupplied Sun Belt markets.

Rent growth will recover gradually, then accelerate. After near-zero growth in 2025 and early 2026, national rent growth is forecast to reach 0.7% by year-end 2026, accelerating to 1.5% in 2027, 2.2% in 2028, and 2.1% to 2.2% annually through 2030 (1). Five-year cumulative rent growth of approximately 3.1% annually is projected, above the pre-pandemic average of 2.7% (2). Markets with constrained supply, notably the Midwest and Northeast, will lead this recovery.

The development window is opening. The dramatic decline in construction starts positions 2026 as a potentially compelling development vintage for projects with 2028 to 2029 delivery timelines. By the time these projects reach the market, the current supply overhang will have been substantially absorbed, and the competitive set of new deliveries will be at its thinnest level since 2014. Developers who secure entitlements and financing in 2026 may benefit from materially reduced competition at delivery (2).

Capital deployment should prioritize distressed and transitional opportunities. The $162 billion maturity wall in 2026 and $168 billion in 2027 will generate a steady flow of refinancing-driven dispositions. Investors targeting 2021 to 2022 vintage assets facing debt maturity stress can acquire stabilized properties at basis levels well below replacement cost. The preferred strategy combines basis protection with submarket-specific rent growth potential.

Demographic tailwinds remain the sector's anchor. The structural housing shortage of 4.0 to 4.7 million units, the 105% buy-versus-rent premium, collapsing move-out-to-purchase rates, and Gen Z's emergence as the fastest-growing renter demographic collectively ensure that multifamily demand will remain structurally supported through the forecast period. Immigration policy remains the key variable: a loosening of restrictions would meaningfully accelerate demand recovery, while sustained restrictions could extend the current soft patch.

The multifamily sector's long-term investment profile remains, in the assessment of most institutional observers, stronger than any other major commercial real estate property type (25). For lenders and investors navigating the current environment, the imperative is disciplined asset selection, conservative leverage, and a willingness to underwrite to normalized conditions rather than trough-level performance.

Sources

(1) MMCG database; based on MMCG reserach,

(2) CBRE, U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026: Multifamily.

(3) JLL, 2026 U.S. Construction Outlook; CRE Daily, January 2026.

(4) MMCG database; IBISWorld, Apartment & Condominium Construction in the US Industry Report, 2025.

(5) National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC), 2026 Industry Survey and Conference Proceedings.

(6) Marcus & Millichap, 2026 U.S. Multifamily Investment Forecast, December 2025.

(7) Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America's Rental Housing 2026.

(8) Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Statements, January 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

(9) Greystone, Demographics and Migration Patterns That Impact Renter Demand, 2025.

(10) National Association of Realtors, 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.

(11) John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), Immigration Slowdown Impact on Rental Demand, 2025.

(12) Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054.

(13) Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Revised Household Projections Under Low-Immigration Scenarios.

(14) Realtor.com and Zillow Housing Supply Deficit Estimates, 2025.

(15) Arbor Realty Trust and Chandan Economics, U.S. Multifamily Market Snapshot, February 2026.

(16) Multifamily Dive; MSCI Real Assets, U.S. Apartment Investment Trends, January 2026.

(17) MSCI Real Assets, U.S. Commercial Property Cap Rate Tracker, Q4 2025.

(18) First American, Multifamily Cap Rates Poised to Slip in 2026, February 2026.

(19) Avison Young, U.S. Multifamily Capital Markets Review, 2025.

(20) Walker & Dunlop, 2026 Market Intelligence Report, NMHC Conference.

(21) Select Commercial; Newmark, U.S. Multifamily Capital Markets Report, Q1 2025.

(22) Federal Housing Finance Agency, 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps Announcement, November 2025.

(23) Scotsman Guide; CoStar, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Record Multifamily Lending in 2025.

(24) Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturity Outlook, February 2026.

(25) PwC and Urban Land Institute, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026.

About MMCG

MMCG Invest, LLC is a premier commercial real estate feasibility consulting firm specializing in SBA and USDA feasibility studies across asset classes including multifamily, hospitality, gas stations, RV parks, and agritourism. Our analyses serve lenders, CDCs, investors, and developers seeking institutional-quality market intelligence for underwriting and investment decisions.

Interest in discussing market conditions for your multifamily project?

Michal Mohelsky, J.D. | Principal | mmcginvest.com 

Contact: michal@mmcginvest.com

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Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data presented herein is derived from proprietary MMCG databases and third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, MMCG Invest makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Figures from third-party industry databases have been independently verified and, where appropriate, adjusted to reflect MMCG's proprietary analytical methodology. Past performance is not indicative of future results.