The Hospitality Market By Chain Scale: a Complete Industry Analysis
- Apr 13
- 16 min read

I. Industry Overview: A 5.8 Million Room Market at an Inflection Point
The U.S. hotel industry comprises approximately 5.79 million rooms across 65,400 properties, generating trailing twelve-month occupancy of 62.4%, an average daily rate (ADR) of $161, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $100 as of early 2026. (1) These headline figures, however, obscure the single most consequential dynamic reshaping the sector: a structural bifurcation between chain scales that has moved well beyond cyclical variation into what industry observers increasingly describe as a permanent K-shaped realignment.
Full-year 2025 marked a historic inflection. RevPAR declined 0.3%, driven by a 1.2% drop in occupancy to 62.3%, while ADR managed only a 0.9% gain (1). Demand fell below 2024 levels, an outcome that, outside of recessionary periods, has no modern precedent in STR's tracking history. The 2026 forecast from CoStar/Tourism Economics calls for RevPAR growth of just 0.6%, with supply growth of 0.7% and the FIFA World Cup contributing roughly 40 basis points of aggregate national lift (2). Gross operating profit margins for full-service hotels declined from 36.9% in 2019 to 33.5% in 2024, underscoring the structural margin compression that continues to pressure the sector(1).
The divergence by chain scale tells the deeper story. Luxury RevPAR grew 3% in 2025 entirely on ADR gains, while economy hotels suffered demand declines exceeding 3%, ADR erosion above 2%, and RevPAR contraction of 4.4% (1). The construction pipeline stood at roughly 133,630 rooms under construction as of early 2026, well below the 150,000+ rooms typically underway prior to 2025, with three-quarters of all rooms under construction falling in the limited-service category (1). Transaction volume recovered to $24 billion in 2025, a 17.5% year-over-year increase, led by luxury portfolio trades that reinforced the prevailing conviction that the upper end of the market offers the most reliable risk-adjusted returns (3).
Exhibit 1: U.S. Hotel Performance by Chain Scale Class (Trailing 12 Months, April 2026)
Chain Scale Class | Rooms | 12-Mo Occ | 12-Mo ADR | 12-Mo RevPAR | Delivered | Under Const. |
Luxury & Upper Upscale | 1,303,060 | 67.1% | $278 | $186 | 13,683 | 29,941 |
Upscale & Upper Midscale | 2,466,444 | 66.5% | $149 | $99 | 38,705 | 82,319 |
Midscale & Economy | 2,020,543 | 54.4% | $86 | $47 | 16,686 | 21,370 |
Total U.S. Market | 5,790,047 | 62.4% | $161 | $100 | 69,073 | 133,630 |
Source: MMCG database, adapted from CoStar/STR National Report (April 2026).
II. Luxury Chain Scale: The Pricing Power Monopoly
The luxury tier, defined by STR as branded chains with the highest global systemwide ADR, stands alone as the only segment of the U.S. hotel industry generating sustained real pricing power. National luxury ADR averaged approximately $278 on a trailing twelve-month basis within the CoStar grouping that combines luxury with upper upscale, while pure-play luxury properties tracked by CBRE and industry consultancies routinely report ADRs between $350 and $500, with ultra-luxury resorts commanding $700 to $3,000+ per night (4). Luxury RevPAR grew 3% in 2025 on ADR gains alone, a performance that reflects the spending resilience of higher-income households whose equity and real estate wealth has expanded substantially over the past three years (1).
Dominant Brands and Operators
Marriott International commands the broadest luxury portfolio of any single company, with an estimated 556 luxury properties globally spanning The Ritz-Carlton (approximately 40+ U.S. hotels), St. Regis (12 to 15 U.S. locations), EDITION (8 to 10 U.S.), W Hotels (20+ U.S.), The Luxury Collection (30+ U.S.), and JW Marriott (75+ U.S.). The company's total system exceeds 9,800 properties and 1.78 million rooms, with full-year 2025 revenue of $26.2 billion and a development pipeline of approximately 610,000 rooms (5). Marriott's luxury strategy increasingly centers on branded residences, which provide critical equity capital for new development while generating recurring management and license fee income.
Hilton Worldwide has aggressively expanded its luxury footprint, reaching a combined 1,000 luxury and lifestyle hotels globally in late 2025. The Waldorf Astoria brand anchors the portfolio with 12 to 14 U.S. properties, including the iconic New York flagship that reopened in 2025 after a renovation exceeding $2 billion that produced 375 hotel rooms and 375 branded condominiums. Conrad Hotels (8 to 10 U.S.) and the LXR Hotels & Resorts soft brand collection round out the luxury tier. Hilton's total system encompasses 9,300+ properties with 1.7 million rooms and achieved record net unit growth of 6.7% in 2025 (6).
Hyatt Hotels Corporation pursues a deliberately luxury-and-lifestyle-weighted strategy, with approximately 46% of pipeline rooms in the luxury and lifestyle categories. The portfolio includes Park Hyatt (6 to 8 U.S.), Grand Hyatt (10+ U.S.), Andaz (8+ U.S.), and the acquired Thompson Hotels (10+ U.S.) and Mr & Mrs Smith collection (1,800+ properties). Hyatt grew its luxury portfolio 11% in early 2025 and achieved the highest net unit growth rate among major companies at 7.3%, powered by a record 148,000-room global pipeline (7).
Independent luxury operators hold outsized influence relative to their property counts. Four Seasons manages approximately 130 hotels globally under a pure management model with zero owned properties, maintaining service ratios of 2.5 to 3+ employees per room. Rosewood Hotels & Resorts operates The Carlyle and a handful of other elite U.S. properties. Montage International runs 6 to 7 ultra-luxury resorts plus the Pendry lifestyle brand. Auberge Resorts Collection (owned by The Friedkin Group) has expanded to 20+ properties emphasizing culinary experiences and wine country locations. Aman maintains just two U.S. locations, Amangiri in Utah and Aman New York, where ADRs range from $2,000 to $5,000+.
Soft Brand Collections and Independent Networks
Independent luxury properties increasingly affiliate with global reservation and marketing networks. The Leading Hotels of the World encompasses 400+ properties globally with 50 to 70 U.S. members. Preferred Hotels & Resorts reaches 700+ properties globally with 150 to 200 in North America. Relais & Chateaux maintains 580+ globally with 40 to 50 U.S. locations. Small Luxury Hotels of the World, which entered a partnership with Hilton in 2023 making its 650+ properties bookable through Hilton Honors, reported an 18% year-over-year revenue increase in 2025 (8), demonstrating the enormous distribution value of loyalty program access for independent operators.
Development Economics and Construction Pipeline
Luxury hotel development costs have reached extraordinary levels, with the HVS 2025 survey reporting a median of $1,057,000 per key and many projects in gateway cities exceeding $2 million per key (9). At these cost levels, pure hotel economics rarely produce acceptable returns, making branded residences the essential financial enabler for virtually all new luxury construction. Branded residential components command 30% to 50% price premiums over conventional luxury condominiums and have grown at a compound annual rate of 11% to 16% since 2000. Miami alone has 45+ completed or pipeline branded residence projects from 22+ luxury brands (10). The luxury construction pipeline reached a record 95 projects and 22,045 rooms at Q4 2025, although average project sizes have shrunk from 292 rooms to approximately 230, reflecting the shift toward intimate, experiential product (11). Market cap rates for luxury and upper upscale assets averaged approximately 8.0% to 8.2% in 2025 (1).
III. Upper Upscale: Convention Market Anchors and Group Revenue Engines
Upper upscale hotels constitute the single most revenue-productive chain scale tier in the U.S. hotel industry. These full-service properties anchor convention center markets and generate the bulk of group business revenue, with group demand accounting for 35% to 40% of total room revenue at typical properties and associated food and beverage spend creating significant multiplier effects. Group RevPAR surged 7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, with group ADR advancing 4.5% (1). The combined luxury and upper upscale segment posted 12-month occupancy of 67.1% and RevPAR of $186, substantially outperforming the national average (1).
Marriott International dominates this tier with an estimated 50% to 55% of U.S. upper upscale branded rooms, led by Marriott Hotels & Resorts (380+ U.S. properties), Sheraton (175+), Westin (120+), Renaissance (80+), and the massive Gaylord Hotels convention resorts, each housing 1,500 to 3,000+ rooms. Hilton holds roughly 25% to 30% through Hilton Hotels & Resorts (600+ U.S.), Embassy Suites (250+), and the new Signia by Hilton convention brand. Hyatt controls approximately 8% to 10% primarily through Hyatt Regency (100+ U.S.). Together, Marriott and Hilton command an estimated 75% to 85% of all branded upper upscale rooms in the United States.
Other significant players include IHG with InterContinental Hotels & Resorts (30+ U.S.) and Kimpton Hotels (60+ U.S.); Omni Hotels & Resorts (60+ properties, privately held, convention-heavy portfolio); Loews Hotels (24 properties with deep convention market presence in Orlando, Chicago, and Nashville); and Accor's North American presence through Fairmont (15+ U.S./Canada) and Sofitel (8+ U.S.). The food and beverage model at upper upscale hotels is undergoing substantial transformation, with JLL research showing that hotels with prestige restaurant partnerships achieve 6.7 percentage points higher occupancy and 18.6% higher RevPAR compared to properties without them (12).
Median development costs for upper upscale properties reach $409,000 per key (9), plus 3- to 5-year development timelines and cautious lender appetite, which is why conversions have become the predominant growth path. The conversion pipeline reached a record 1,497 projects at Q4 2025, with nearly 1,900 hotels converting during the year (13). Major hotel REITs concentrate their portfolios in this tier: Host Hotels & Resorts owns 71 predominantly upper upscale and luxury U.S. properties with approximately 41,700 rooms. In February 2026, Host sold two Four Seasons properties in Orlando and Jackson Hole for a combined $1.1 billion to a group affiliated with Michael Dell (1).
IV. Upscale: Select-Service Economics at Scale
The upscale tier encompasses both select-service workhorses and full-service collection brands, forming the second-largest pipeline segment with approximately 1,336 projects and 167,316 rooms (13). The defining economic advantage of upscale select-service hotels lies in their 40% to 50% gross operating profit margins, substantially exceeding the 25% to 35% typical of full-service properties. These margins reflect limited food and beverage operations (one restaurant or bar versus multiple outlets), lower staffing ratios of 0.3 to 0.5 full-time equivalents per room versus 0.8 to 1.2+ for full-service, and a revenue composition where rooms constitute 85% to 95% of total income (14).
Courtyard by Marriott anchors the segment with approximately 923 U.S. and Canadian properties and 124,000 rooms, averaging 134 rooms per hotel. Hilton Garden Inn follows with roughly 690 U.S. properties and 100,000 rooms. Hyatt Place operates approximately 400 U.S. properties with 52,000 rooms. Among lifestyle-positioned upscale brands, AC Hotels by Marriott (90 U.S.), Aloft (140 U.S.), and Moxy (40 U.S.) represent the newer generation targeting design-conscious travelers, while Canopy by Hilton (30 U.S.) and Tempo by Hilton (in early growth phase) extend Hilton's reach into the lifestyle space. IHG contributes Hotel Indigo (75 U.S.), Crowne Plaza (180 U.S.), and EVEN Hotels (15 U.S.), while Choice Hotels' Cambria Hotels has crossed 70+ open U.S. properties with strong pipeline momentum (15).
Exhibit 2: Leading Upscale Select-Service Brands in the United States
Brand | Parent | U.S. Hotels | U.S. Rooms | Avg Size | Concept |
Courtyard by Marriott | Marriott | ~923 | ~124,000 | 134 | Select-service business |
Hilton Garden Inn | Hilton | ~690 | ~100,000 | 145 | Select-service upscale |
Hyatt Place | Hyatt | ~400 | ~52,000 | 130 | Casual select-service |
AC Hotels | Marriott | ~90 | ~13,500 | 150 | European-inspired design |
Aloft Hotels | Marriott | ~140 | ~22,000 | 157 | Music/tech lifestyle |
Cambria Hotels | Choice | ~70+ | ~9,100 | 130 | Upscale new-build |
Hotel Indigo | IHG | ~75 | ~10,500 | 140 | Boutique neighborhood |
Canopy by Hilton | Hilton | ~30 | ~4,500 | 150 | Local lifestyle |
Source: MMCG database, compiled from company filings, STR, and Lodging Econometrics data.
Collection and soft brand growth within the upscale tier has been explosive. Autograph Collection (Marriott) leads with 156 U.S./Canada properties. Curio Collection (Hilton) approaches 100 U.S. properties. Tapestry Collection (Hilton) has surpassed 200 global openings. Hilton launched Outset Collection in October 2025, and IHG introduced Noted Collection in early 2026, demonstrating continued brand proliferation (16). Franchise fee structures across the upscale tier typically total 10% to 14% of gross room revenue, comprising royalties of 5% to 6%, marketing and reservation contributions of 2.5% to 4.5%, and loyalty program fees of 3% to 5%. Median development costs average $223,000 per key (9).
V. Upper Midscale: The Pipeline Powerhouse
Upper midscale is the largest chain scale segment by both existing room base and construction pipeline, accounting for 30% of all rooms under construction nationally and 2,275 pipeline projects encompassing 218,526 rooms (13). The segment's appeal to developers is grounded in a compelling combination of low construction costs (median $167,000 per key for limited-service), simplified operations requiring minimal food and beverage, access to powerful loyalty program distribution, and a flexible customer base that trades up or down with economic conditions. CBRE data show upper midscale posted the highest RevPAR compound annual growth rate of any chain scale at 2.2% from 2014 to 2019 and 2.3% from 2019 to 2024 (17).
Hampton by Hilton stands as the single largest hotel brand in the world with approximately 3,127 hotels and 350,600 rooms globally, including roughly 2,500+ U.S. properties generating an estimated $12 billion in annual rooms revenue (18). Hampton has ranked as the No. 1 hotel franchise on Entrepreneur's Franchise 500 for 17 consecutive years. A new-build 89-room Hampton Inn costs approximately $15.2 to $22.2 million (excluding land), with ongoing franchise fees of 6% royalty plus 4% marketing contribution on gross rooms revenue. Holiday Inn Express is the second-largest upper midscale brand with 3,292 global hotels and 351,400 rooms under IHG. Fairfield Inn & Suites (Marriott) maintains roughly 1,000+ North American properties (19).
The extended-stay subsegment within upper midscale represents the single most dynamic growth category in the entire U.S. hotel industry. Home2 Suites by Hilton has crossed 700 open hotels with an additional 750+ in the development pipeline, constituting the largest branded extended-stay pipeline in the industry. TownePlace Suites (Marriott) and Staybridge Suites (IHG) provide additional pipeline density. Extended-stay properties account for 39% of all U.S. pipeline projects, a share that has grown from under 20% a decade ago (20). Other notable players include La Quinta by Wyndham (900+ U.S. properties), Best Western Plus (1,200+ U.S.), and Drury Hotels, a privately held, family-owned chain that operates 150+ locations without any franchised units, consistently topping J.D. Power guest satisfaction rankings (21).
VI. Midscale: The Conversion Battleground
The midscale tier occupies a precarious position in the chain scale hierarchy, caught between the pricing pressure of economy substitutes from below and the aspirational pull of upper midscale from above. Midscale RevPAR declined 2.8% in full-year 2025, with occupancy running in the mid-50s and ADR averaging approximately $86 to $90 (1). The construction pipeline holds 956 projects and 80,260 rooms, but growth is overwhelmingly conversion-driven. Choice Hotels reported that 80% of its 2025 openings were conversions, which open within 3 to 6 months versus 18 to 24 months for new construction (22).
Choice Hotels dominates the midscale tier with Comfort Inn (1,200+ U.S. properties), Comfort Suites (500+), Quality Inn (1,200+), Sleep Inn (350+), and the Clarion family (230+). Wyndham Hotels & Resorts contributes Baymont (547 U.S. properties), AmericInn (230), Wingate (194), and Ramada (247). Best Western maintains a significant midscale presence with Best Western (1,200+ U.S./Canada) and its SureStay brand collection targeting economy-to-midscale conversions (23). Property Improvement Plan (PIP) costs have surged more than 30% above pre-pandemic levels, creating acute financial pressure for owners of aging inventory, much of which dates to the 1980s and 1990s.
Exhibit 3: Representative Midscale and Economy Brands by Parent Company
Brand | Parent | Chain Scale | U.S. Hotels | U.S. Rooms | Primary Concept |
Comfort Inn | Choice | Midscale | ~1,200 | ~90,000 | Conversion-friendly transient |
Quality Inn | Choice | Midscale | ~1,200 | ~80,000 | Value-tier conversions |
Baymont | Wyndham | Midscale | 547 | 40,710 | Economy-to-midscale bridge |
Super 8 | Wyndham | Economy | 1,344 | 80,837 | Roadside/interstate budget |
Days Inn | Wyndham | Economy | 1,201 | 85,205 | Legacy economy brand |
Motel 6 | OYO/G6 | Economy | ~1,100 | ~90,000 | Ultra-budget transient |
Econo Lodge | Choice | Economy | ~600 | ~35,000 | Budget conversion |
Red Roof Inn | Westmont | Economy | ~600+ | ~55,000 | Value-tier roadside |
WoodSpring Suites | Choice | Economy | 265+ | ~30,000 | Economy extended-stay |
Source: MMCG database, compiled from SEC filings, company reports, and STR data. Room counts are estimates.
VII. Economy: Structural Decline Meets the Extended-Stay Exception
The economy tier faces the most challenging operating environment in the U.S. hotel industry, having recorded 18 consecutive months of RevPAR declines through mid-2025. Economy demand fell more than 3%, ADR contracted over 2%, and RevPAR dropped 4.4% for the full year (1). The segment is not expected to recover to 2019 performance levels until the end of 2027 at the earliest. The midscale and economy tiers together contain approximately 2.02 million rooms at 54.4% occupancy with a trailing twelve-month ADR of just $86 and RevPAR of $47 (1), implying annual rooms revenue per property well below $1 million for a typical 70-room economy hotel.
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts operates the largest branded economy portfolio: Super 8 (1,344 U.S. properties, 80,837 rooms), Days Inn (1,201 properties, 85,205 rooms), Travelodge (320, 23,333 rooms), Microtel (280, 19,784 rooms), and Howard Johnson (133, 10,119 rooms) (23). Wyndham's U.S. economy rooms declined by 3,000 year-over-year in 2025 to approximately 221,800, reflecting structural net attrition as properties exit the system. OYO acquired G6 Hospitality (Motel 6 and Studio 6, approximately 1,500 locations) from Blackstone for $525 million in December 2024 (24). Red Roof (Westmont Hospitality Group) maintains roughly 600+ locations with 55,000+ rooms.
Demand drivers for the economy tier face simultaneous pressure from multiple directions. Short-term rental market share grew from 9.9% in 2019 to an estimated 15.5% in 2025, directly targeting economy's price-sensitive customer base. Reduced government travel spending, declining Canadian visitation (down 23.7% through June 2025), and cost-of-living pressure on lower-income households have all suppressed demand (25). Numerous markets are experiencing net supply contraction as properties are demolished, converted to apartments or workforce housing, or exit franchise systems because owners cannot fund the required PIPs. Cap rates for economy assets trade at 10%+ nationally, reaching 10% to 11% in tertiary markets (26).
The critical exception to this narrative is economy extended-stay, which is thriving. WoodSpring Suites (Choice Hotels) has 265+ open properties with 400+ including pipeline, ranking No. 1 in J.D. Power's economy extended-stay segment for three consecutive years. Extended Stay America (Blackstone/Starwood Capital, acquired for $6 billion in 2021) operates 650+ locations. Extended-stay properties sustain occupancies 10+ percentage points above the industry average, with dramatically lower labor costs: economy extended-stay labor cost per occupied room runs just $9.31 versus $28.28 for select-service and $57.59 for full-service (27).
VIII. The Six Giants: Parent Company Market Share and Brand Portfolios
Six publicly traded hotel companies control the vast majority of branded rooms in the United States, operating under an asset-light model where franchise and management fees generate recurring revenue streams while property-level operational risk sits with independent owners and REITs. Marriott is 99% managed or franchised. Hilton and IHG have similarly divested virtually all owned real estate. The resulting business model generates high-margin, capital-light fee income that supports aggressive brand proliferation and system expansion.
Exhibit 4: Major U.S. Hotel Parent Companies (Year-End 2025)
Company | Global Hotels | Global Rooms | Pipeline Rooms | NUG 2025 | Brands | 2025 Revenue |
Marriott | 9,800+ | 1.78M | ~610K | ~4.5% | 33+ | $26.2B |
Hilton | 9,300+ | 1.70M | ~524K | 6.7% | 24 | $11.8B |
IHG | 6,900+ | 1.00M+ | ~318K | 4.5% | 19 | $4.8B |
Wyndham | 9,300+ | 838K | ~259K | 4.0% | 25 | $1.4B |
Hyatt | 1,450+ | 340K | ~148K | 7.3% | 29 | $3.4B |
Choice | 7,500+ | 635K | ~107K | ~2.5% | 22 | $1.6B |
Source: MMCG database, compiled from SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor presentations. NUG = Net Unit Growth.
The industry now encompasses approximately 1,000 hotel brands worldwide, with major parent companies adding brands at a 7% compound annual growth rate (28). Between 2023 and early 2026, the pace of launches has been relentless. Marriott introduced StudioRes, City Express, Four Points Flex, and Series while integrating acquired brands CitizenM and Sonder. Hilton launched Spark, LivSmart Studios, Graduate Hotels, and Outset Collection while acquiring NoMad Hotels. Hyatt debuted Hyatt Studios, Hyatt Select, Unscripted, and Caption. IHG launched Garner, Atwell Suites, and Noted Collection. Wyndham introduced ECHO Suites. Yet CBRE and Cornell University research raises pointed questions about whether this proliferation generates value: the fastest-growing brand family by brand count (15% CAGR) achieved the slowest median RevPAR growth (0.3%), and only 28% of brands now outperform the sample average, down from 52% before 2019 (29).
IX. Extended-Stay: The Industry's Dominant Growth Engine
Extended-stay lodging has emerged as the single most consequential growth category in the U.S. hotel industry. The segment now accounts for approximately 611,000 rooms, exceeding 10% of total hotel supply, with an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue (30). The pipeline contains 2,473 projects and 252,028 rooms, representing 39% of all U.S. pipeline projects (20). Extended-stay supply is growing at 5.0% to 5.9% annually versus 1.3% to 1.5% for the overall industry, and demand has declined only once in 27 years (2020). Every major hotel company has launched or expanded extended-stay brands over the past two years: Marriott's StudioRes, Hilton's LivSmart Studios, Hyatt Studios, Wyndham's ECHO Suites, and IHG's Atwell Suites and Staybridge Suites (31).
The economic rationale is compelling across every metric that matters to developers and owners. Extended-stay properties sustain occupancies of 70%+ versus the 62% industry average. Labor costs per occupied room are 50% to 80% lower than comparable transient hotels due to reduced housekeeping frequency (weekly versus daily), fewer front-desk interactions, and minimal food and beverage staffing. Longer average length of stay (7+ nights versus 1.5 for transient) reduces OTA commission exposure and acquisition cost per guest. Breakeven occupancy runs approximately 10 to 15 percentage points below traditional hotels. The segment has attracted significant institutional capital, including Blackstone and Starwood Capital's $6 billion acquisition of Extended Stay America in 2021 and Noble Investment Group's $600 million in hotel acquisitions in 2025, heavily weighted toward extended-stay properties purchased below replacement cost (30).
X. Investment Implications and Forward Outlook
The U.S. hospitality market has entered a structural equilibrium defined by five dynamics that will persist well beyond the current cycle. First, the K-shaped bifurcation between luxury and economy performance is permanent, driven by wealth concentration, divergent cost structures, and fundamentally different customer bases. Second, extended-stay has become the industry's center of gravity for new development, and every major company's pipeline strategy now revolves around the segment's superior economics. Third, supply discipline at 1.3% to 1.5% annual growth creates a favorable backdrop for existing asset owners, but the industry's inability to build sufficient new rooms reflects deeper challenges around construction costs, financing availability, and labor shortages rather than deliberate restraint (1).
Fourth, the asset-light franchise model has reached near-completion, transforming major hotel companies into technology-and-brand platforms generating fee income while property-level operational risk sits with owners and REITs. Fifth, the conversion economy has overtaken new-build as the primary growth mechanism, with record conversion pipeline activity fundamentally changing how brands expand (13). For investors, the clearest opportunities lie at the extremes: luxury assets with irreplaceable locations and sustained pricing power, and economy extended-stay properties generating institutional-quality cash flows at below-replacement-cost acquisition prices. The middle tiers offer stable but unspectacular returns, with upscale select-service delivering the industry's best risk-adjusted margins at 40% to 50% gross operating profit.
The segments facing the greatest headwinds are traditional economy transient hotels contending with structural demand erosion and midscale properties requiring imminent PIPs that could effectively double per-room acquisition costs. As the industry moves through the second half of 2026, with the FIFA World Cup and the 250th anniversary of the United States providing short-term catalysts, the fundamental question is whether moderate RevPAR growth of 0.6% can sustain the investment thesis across all tiers, or whether the K-shaped reality will continue concentrating returns at the top while eroding value at the bottom.
Interest in discussing market conditions for your hotel development?

Manjola Bileri | Analyst | mmcginvest.com
Contact: manu@mmcginvest.com
Phone: (628) 225-1125 (office)
About MMCG
MMCG Invest, LLC is a commercial real estate feasibility consulting firm serving lenders, investors, and developers across the United States. The firm specializes in third-party feasibility studies for SBA and USDA guaranteed loan programs across a wide range of asset classes, including hospitality, hotels, glamping and other hospitality projects.
Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data presented herein is derived from proprietary MMCG databases and third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, MMCG Invest makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Figures from third-party industry databases have been independently verified and, where appropriate, adjusted to reflect MMCG's proprietary analytical methodology. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Endnotes
(1) MMCG database
(2) CoStar/Tourism Economics, U.S. Hotel Forecast Assumptions, February 2026.
(3) JLL Hotels & Hospitality, U.S. Hotel Investment Trends Report, 2026.
(4) CBRE Hotels Research, Hotel Brand Performance 2025.
(5) Marriott International, Inc., SEC Filing (Form 8-K), Q3 2025 Earnings Release.
(6) Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc., Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Presentation.
(7) Hyatt Hotels Corporation, Q4 2025 Earnings Release (SEC Form 8-K).
(8) Small Luxury Hotels of the World, 2025 Growth Report; LODGING Magazine.
(9) HVS, U.S. Hotel Development Cost Survey 2025.
(10) Branded Living; CRE Worldwide, The Rise of Branded Luxury Residences, 2025.
(11) Lodging Econometrics, Q4 2025 Global Construction Pipeline Report.
(12) JLL Hotels & Hospitality, Hotel Restaurant Report 2025.
(13) Lodging Econometrics, Q4 2025 U.S. Pipeline Report; Hotel Dive.
(14) SPARK GHC, Select-Service vs. Full-Service Investment Analysis, 2025.
(15) Choice Hotels International, 2025 Development Performance Report.
(16) Hilton Outset Collection Launch (October 2025); IHG Noted Collection (February 2026).
(17) CBRE Hotels Research, Hotel Brand Performance 2025.
(18) Hilton, Hampton by Hilton Franchise 500 Data, 2026.
(19) Marriott International, SEC Filing (Form 8-K), Q3 2025 Supplemental Data.
(20) Lodging Econometrics, Q3 2025 Extended-Stay Pipeline Report.
(21) Drury Hotels Company, Corporate Profile.
(22) Choice Hotels International, Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results.
(23) Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc., SEC Filing (Form 8-K), Q4 2025 Earnings Release.
(24) OYO/Blackstone, G6 Hospitality Acquisition Announcement, December 2024.
(25) MMCG database; PwC Hospitality Outlook 2026; CoStar STR data.
(26) MMCG database, U.S. Hotel Cap Rates in 2025: Trends, Drivers, and Segment Analysis.
(27) CBRE, Extended-Stay Hotels Continue to Gain in Popularity, 2025.
(28) Skift Research, Hotel Brand Bloat Analysis, 2023; MMCG database updates.
(29) CBRE Hotels Research and Cornell University, Hotel Brand Performance Study, 2025.
(30) CBRE Extended-Stay Market Analysis; MMCG database.
(31) HOTELS Magazine; Lodging Econometrics extended-stay pipeline data.




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