Losing a Slice: Pizza Restaurants Struggle in a Changing U.S. Market

The humble pizza, long a staple of American Friday nights, is losing some of its magic. After decades of dominance in quick-service dining, pizza restaurants are facing a stark reality: their once-dependable popularity is waning, and competitors are eating their lunch (and dinner). Industry data shows that the U.S. pizza restaurants market has been shrinking in recent years, even as other restaurant formats – from fried chicken chains to fast-casual eateries – are flourishing. A confluence of shifting consumer tastes, post-pandemic dining habits, and economic headwinds has put pizza chains on the defensive. Thin profit margins, rising costs, and the erosion of pizza’s historic delivery advantage are adding to the pressure. This analysis examines the numbers and trends behind pizza’s relative underperformance, comparing its trajectory to the surging fortunes of competitors like fast-food chicken outlets and experiential full-service chains.

A Shrinking Slice of the Market

Not long ago, pizza was king of convenience dining. But recent financial figures tell a tale of decline. U.S. pizza restaurant revenue has contracted at an annual rate of about –2.9% over the past five years, falling to an estimated $49.5 billion in 2025. In 2025 alone, sales dipped a further 0.3%, capping a half-decade in which the sector shed nearly $8 billion in top-line value. This downturn stands in stark contrast to the broader rebound in food service. For example, chain restaurants overall (including major full-service and fast-food brands) surged coming out of the pandemic, growing at an annualized 10.4% to reach about $241.5 billion in 2025. Even after a slight pullback in 2025, the full-service chain segment (think Olive Garden or Chili’s) remains above pre-pandemic revenue levels, buoyed by consumers returning to sit-down dining.

Perhaps most striking is how pizza has lost ground to its quick-service rivals. Fast-food chicken restaurants have thrived, notched 5.6% yearly growth from 2020 to 2025, with industry sales hitting about $65 billion in 2025. In other words, Americans now spend substantially more at chicken chains than at pizzerias – a dramatic shift from a few years ago, when pizza sales were larger than those of chicken QSRs. “Order up,” quips one industry report about chicken outlets, noting that the segment “stayed afloat during the pandemic and has continued to thrive during the economic recovery”. In dollar terms, Chick-fil-A alone booked an estimated $25 billion in U.S. system-wide sales in 2025, which is roughly half the size of the entire pizza restaurant sector’s revenue. The Pizza Hut vs. Chick-fil-A comparison is telling: one is an iconic pizza brand that has seen its U.S. sales stagnate and units close, while the other – a chicken chain that closes on Sundays – has rocketed to the top ranks of the fast-food industry. The divergent fortunes of Pizza Hut vs. Chick-fil-A exemplify the broader trend of pizza’s relative underperformance and chicken’s ascendance in American diets.

The share of stomach (and wallet) that pizza commands has thus been shrinking. Pizza restaurants’ revenue in 2025 is down to about 78-82% of its level five years prior, whereas fast-food purveyors of fried chicken, wings, and sandwiches have expanded significantly. Even the broader chain restaurant market – encompassing everything from burger drive-thrus to casual dining chains – eclipsed its pre-pandemic scale thanks to a post-2020 sales boom. By 2025, many Americans were returning to sit-down restaurants or trying new quick-service options, leaving pizza chains with a smaller piece of a growing pie.

Shifting Consumer Tastes and Demand

Why are pizza parlors falling out of favor? One key factor is shifting consumer taste and dietary preferences, especially in the wake of the pandemic. Americans have become more health-conscious and protein-focused in their food choices, which has worked to pizza’s detriment. Pizza is widely viewed as a carb-heavy, indulgent meal – essentially “unhealthy” in the eyes of nutrition-conscious diners. By contrast, chicken (especially without the fryer) carries a health halo as a lean protein. In fact, per capita poultry consumption in the U.S. hit record highs in recent years: the average American now eats over 100 pounds of chicken per year, more than double the 40.1 pounds consumed in 1970. The rise of high-protein diets – from paleo to keto – has steered many consumers toward meat and away from refined carbs. “Chicken’s health benefits and cost effectiveness has fueled industry growth,” explains a recent IBISWorld report, noting that sustained demand for poultry has buoyed fast-food chicken sales. Simply put, a grilled chicken bowl or sandwich is easier to fit into today’s diet trends than a pepperoni pizza.

Beyond nutrition, Americans’ appetite for dining “experiences” has grown, especially among younger generations. “Younger diners [are] searching for food experiences,” as one industry analysis noted, and this trend is “threatening [traditional] industry profit”. After two years of lockdowns and takeout, many consumers – particularly Millennials and Gen Z – have been eager to get out and seek novel, social dining experiences. This might mean a lively fast-casual spot with customizable organic salads, a Korean BBQ joint where you cook at the table, or a hip artisanal pizza bistro with a craft beer menu. In any case, experience-based formats are drawing traffic that might once have defaulted to the big pizza chains. By comparison, grabbing a basic carry-out pizza or calling Domino’s delivery feels utilitarian, not experiential. The chain restaurant industry as a whole has noted this shift: diners (especially younger ones) are bypassing generic chains in favor of alternatives that offer either higher perceived quality or a unique atmosphere. Traditional pizza chains – with their familiar menus and formulaic stores – risk seeming stale in this environment.

There’s also more competition than ever for the American pizza dollar. Once upon a time, if you wanted a quick family-friendly meal, a local pizzeria or Pizza Hut was the go-to. Now, pizza faces “growing competition” on multiple fronts. Supermarkets sell plenty of frozen pizzas for movie night. Countless other restaurants (from bars to bowling alleys) offer pizza or flatbreads on their menus, nibbling at what was once a captive market. And if it’s simply convenience one seeks, the range of choices is staggering: one can as easily order burgers, tacos, sushi, or fried chicken for home delivery as pizza. During the pandemic, takeout and delivery became default modes for all kinds of cuisine – and those habits have stuck. The effect is that pizza no longer has a monopoly on convenience. A generation ago, pizza chains’ delivery infrastructure was a competitive moat; today, that delivery advantage has eroded as almost every food outlet partners with apps to bring hot meals to your door. The pizza industry’s own analysts recognize this: pizza remains popular, but “more restaurants offer pizza and similar items” now, and consumers have myriad at-home dining options, putting the sector in a fight to stay relevant.

Rising Costs and the Delivery Dilemma

Changing consumer preferences explain the demand side of pizza’s slump. Equally important are the operational and economic challenges squeezing pizza restaurants from the supply side. Running a pizza chain is simply a tougher business than it used to be. Profit margins for pizza restaurants have slimmed to about 4% on average, a low figure even by the thin-margined standards of food service. Several forces are to blame:

• Labor Cost Inflation: Pizzerias are labor-intensive, relying on workers to prepare pies, staff counters, and (in delivery-centric brands) drive orders to homes. Wages have been rising across the country, and new labor regulations hit quick-service restaurants especially hard. In California, for instance, the minimum wage for fast-food workers was recently set to jump to $20 an hour, a seismic increase that sent franchise operators scrambling. Higher payroll costs cut directly into already-small margins. To cope, some pizza chains have been forced to cut staff or shutter locations. In one striking example, Pizza Hut preemptively laid off about 1,200 delivery drivers in California ahead of the wage hike. Those kinds of cuts illustrate how labor inflation can “alter employment levels and reshape operations,” as the industry tries to protect its bottom line. Even outside of policy-driven wage hikes, a tight labor market has meant employers must pay more to hire and retain workers – a particular challenge for jobs like pizza delivery driver, which saw shortages during the pandemic. (At one point, Domino’s disclosed that a lack of delivery drivers was limiting its sales; many would-be drivers found gig work or higher-paying jobs elsewhere.)

• Supply Chain Volatility: Making pizza profitable depends on cheap and steady supplies of ingredients like cheese, flour, tomato sauce, and meat toppings. Lately those have been anything but steady. Rising input costs and supply disruptions have hit pizza kitchens hard, from tariffs on imported cheese to pandemic-era shocks in food production. In 2025, purchases of food and beverages accounted for about 23.4% of revenue at the average pizzeria. When that much of each sales dollar (nearly a quarter) goes straight to buying ingredients, any cost spike can eat the profits quickly. For instance, tariffs on European cheese and tomatoes and on Canadian wheat have forced up the cost of these essentials. Many pizza operators feel they cannot simply raise menu prices to offset higher costs – not in a world where hungry customers have plenty of alternatives – so they swallow the expense. The result has been “declining or stagnating profit” margins in recent years. Beyond food, other inputs have grown pricier too: packaging costs climbed with aluminum and steel tariffs (pizza boxes often include foil or metallic liners), and even cooking oil and paper goods saw inflation. Throw in rising rent and utilities – heating those pizza ovens isn’t cheap – and it’s clear the cost structure is tightening from all sides. Many pizzerias have responded by downsizing dine-in space, focusing on takeout/delivery to cut overhead, or seeking cheaper suppliers. But such measures only go so far in an environment of global supply hiccups and high inflation.

• Changing Delivery Economics: Pizza chains built their empires on fast, reliable delivery – but the economics of delivering food have been upended. The proliferation of third-party delivery apps (DoorDash, Uber Eats, etc.) means that fast-food chicken and burger chains now offer delivery as readily as pizzerias do, often through partnerships. This has eroded the unique convenience edge pizza once enjoyed. It has also introduced new competition on service: a family craving a quick dinner might scroll through a delivery app and end up choosing a chicken sandwich bundle or a tex-mex meal instead of pizza. The pizza chains find themselves competing on delivery turf with the entire restaurant sector. Moreover, those third-party apps charge significant commission fees to restaurants, squeezing margins for any chains that use them. Domino’s Pizza notably resisted partnering with delivery apps for years, preferring to use its own drivers to avoid commission costs – a stance that arguably hurt Domino’s in the short term as aggregators grew dominant. (Only in late 2023 did Domino’s relent and agree to list its stores on Uber Eats, a testament to how vital these platforms have become.) On top of that, customers have become more fee-conscious and tip-sensitive, leading many to opt for carry-out over delivery. Industry data show that takeout has boomed and “remained” popular as a cheaper alternative, since customers feel less obliged to tip for carry-out. In effect, the consumer is doing the driving. For pizza chains, a shift from delivery to pick-up can hurt, because they lose delivery fees and impulse add-ons, and face even fiercer competition from takeout specialists and grocery prepared foods. All these factors mean that the economics of delivering a pizza – once a reliably profitable channel – are under new strain. Some chains are rethinking their staffing (hiring fewer in-house drivers, or using gig couriers) and investing in tech (like more efficient routing algorithms) to adapt. But the advantage pizza once had as the delivery cuisine has largely vanished in the face of today’s on-demand economy.

The cumulative impact of these cost pressures is evident in the bottom line. Over the past five years, industry-wide profit margins for pizza restaurants slipped from around 5% to just 4.1% of revenue in 2025. Those margins are lower than the average for the broader restaurant sector (for chain restaurants overall, profit is about 4.7%) and are razor-thin compared to many other industries.

Major Pizza Players: Comparing the Big Four Chains

The pizza industry’s troubles are playing out prominently in its four largest chains – Domino’s, Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars – which together account for a significant share of the market. Each of these major players has a distinct profile and strategy, yet all face the common headwinds outlined above. Below are some comparative benchmarks and recent performance metrics for these brands (from industry and company reports):

• Domino’s Pizza: The largest pizza chain globally and in the U.S., Domino’s operates over 9,100 locations worldwide (about one-third of them in the United States). Known for its delivery prowess and digital innovation, Domino’s Pizza financials reflect its scale: the company reported roughly $4.71 billion in revenue in 2023, derived from franchise royalties, company-owned stores, and its extensive supply chain business. Domino’s leaned heavily into technology – from its AI-driven ordering bot to a sophisticated mobile app – to drive sales. During the pandemic, it enjoyed surging demand for delivery pizza, but more recently growth has cooled. Same-store sales in the U.S. have turned sluggish as the chain grapples with driver shortages and increased competition for at-home dining. Domino’s responded with aggressive promotions (its 2023 “Emergency Pizza” campaign offered loyal customers a free pizza for future “emergencies”) and by enhancing its loyalty program. These moves are part of a broader strategy Domino’s called “Hungry for MORE,” launched in late 2023, focusing on frequent, digital-exclusive deals to entice budget-conscious consumers. Thus far, Domino’s has outperformed some competitors on value, but sustaining that momentum will require holding onto cost-conscious customers without eroding profit.

• Pizza Hut: Once synonymous with family pizza night, Pizza Hut has about 8,300 restaurants in the U.S., plus thousands more abroad as part of the Yum! Brands portfolio. In recent years Pizza Hut has been repositioning away from its classic dine-in “red roof” model toward a delivery and carry-out focus, but the transition has been bumpy. The chain’s domestic footprint actually contracted as hundreds of aging dine-in units closed (including a wave of closures after a major franchisee’s bankruptcy in 2020). While Pizza Hut remains a strong #2 globally, it has lost U.S. market share to Domino’s and even smaller rivals that focused on delivery sooner. Pizza Hut’s challenge has been to modernize its menu and image (adding tech features like app ordering and new products like wing brands) while battling the perception that it’s a legacy brand. With an estimated 350,000 employees system-wide (mostly at franchise locations), Pizza Hut has a large workforce exposed to wage inflation. The brand made headlines with the aforementioned driver layoffs in California, signaling a willingness to make tough cuts. As part of Yum! Brands, Pizza Hut doesn’t report separate financials publicly, but analysts note that its growth has trailed sister brands KFC and Taco Bell. The coming years will test whether Pizza Hut can leverage its vast scale and nostalgia factor to stage a comeback, or whether it cedes further ground to more nimble competitors.

• Papa John’s: The third-largest pizza delivery chain in the U.S., Papa John’s operates around 4,200 locations globally (the majority in North America). The company’s 2022 annual revenue was about $2.06 billion, reflecting a mix of franchise royalties, company-store sales, and distribution operations. Papa John’s has navigated a tumultuous period: a high-profile controversy involving its founder in 2018 led to a brand crisis and sales slump. New leadership and a refreshed marketing approach (including Shaquille O’Neal as a company spokesman and board member) helped repair its image. By 2020, Papa John’s saw a strong sales rebound as homebound customers ordered lots of pizza; same-store sales jumped in the double digits during the peak of COVID-19. However, like others, Papa John’s growth cooled post-pandemic. It has tried to differentiate with a premium positioning – touting better ingredients and innovative menu items (like Epic Stuffed Crust pizza and Papadias flatbread-sandwiches) – while also rolling out its own loyalty program to drive repeat orders. Along with Domino’s, Papa John’s has found success with digital loyalty initiatives, using them to boost order frequency and gather data on customer preferences. The chain’s profit margins have been under pressure from high food costs (cheese prices are a major swing factor) and labor expenses, and it recently announced plans to slow new store development in the U.S. as it refines its approach. Still, Papa John’s maintains a solid #3 position and is investing in international growth for long-term expansion.

• Little Caesars: A privately held brand known for its “Hot-N-Ready” $5 pizzas, Little Caesars is the dark horse of the big four. It has roughly 4,400 locations (mostly in the U.S.), many of them carry-out oriented units in strip malls. Unlike the other three, Little Caesars historically did very little delivery – a fact that insulated it somewhat from the delivery app wars, but also meant the chain missed out on the delivery boom until it began offering delivery via partners in recent years. Little Caesars does not disclose financials publicly, but it is widely believed to have system-wide sales in the low-to-mid single-digit billions (industry experts estimate its U.S. sales in the ballpark of $4 billion annually). It keeps prices aggressively low, aiming at the value-conscious segment of the market. This low-cost model is supported by a pared-down menu (basically one core product: pepperoni or cheese pizzas ready for immediate pickup). The brand’s cost structure benefits from requiring fewer labor hours per store (no waitstaff or dedicated drivers) and by using simpler ingredients at scale. Little Caesars has also invested in technology, introducing its “Pizza Portal” pickup lockers for mobile orders (allowing truly contactless, grab-and-go service). While often flying under the radar in media coverage, Little Caesars has a strong niche – it appeals to families and young folks who want a fast, ultra-affordable meal. The question is whether that niche is growing or shrinking in the face of inflation. Thus far, Little Caesars has held its own by sticking to what it does best: being the cheapest, quickest option for a pizza fix.

Despite their different strategies, all four major chains are contending with the broader industry currents: rising costs, a fight for market share, and the need to adapt to what today’s consumers want. Notably, none of these companies holds an overwhelming dominance in the pizza space. In fact, the U.S. pizza restaurant landscape remains highly fragmented – more than half of all pizzerias are independent, single-unit businesses rather than chain outlets. This fragmentation means even the biggest brands (Domino’s and Pizza Hut) each capture only on the order of 15–20% of total pizza restaurant sales. By contrast, the top chicken chain (Chick-fil-A) alone commands nearly 39% of its segment’s revenue. The pizza chains, while large, must still compete with tens of thousands of mom-and-pop pizza shops that dot the country – many of which are beloved local institutions offering authentic recipes or specialty slices. These independents add another layer of competition, often winning on uniqueness and community loyalty, even as the chains try to win on convenience and price.

Fighting Back: Pizza Fights for Relevance

Is pizza passé? Not quite – but pizza chains clearly have work to do to regain momentum. Industry projections aren’t all doom and gloom: analysts expect the pizza restaurants market to return to modest growth (around 1.6% annually) through 2030, assuming operators can adapt. To do so, pizza chains are employing a variety of tactics in hopes of engineering a turnaround:

• Menu Refreshes and Healthier Options: To shake the “unhealthy junk food” reputation, many pizza restaurants have added lighter or more diverse menu items. Salad offerings, cauliflower or whole-grain crust alternatives, plant-based toppings, and leaner proteins are appearing on pizza menus. So far, these experiments have met mixed success. Some consumers have welcomed the options, but it remains a challenge to convince health-focused diners to regularly choose pizza over grilled chicken or salad bowls. Still, the push continues – even holdouts are being pressured to cater to evolving tastes. Industry observers note that “major chains like Pizza Hut, Little Caesars and Domino’s have been slow to introduce dairy-free cheese and vegan meats,” a gap that creates “a disconnect between established companies and evolving consumer preferences”. Closing that gap may be key to attracting the next generation of customers.

• Emphasizing Value (Deals, Discounts, Bundles): In an inflationary environment, price matters more than ever. Pizza companies have doubled down on promotions to entice customers on tight budgets. Domino’s “Mix and Match” deals, Papa John’s loyalty rewards, and Pizza Hut’s $5 N’ Up line-up are all geared toward perceived value. The past year saw an escalation of such offers – Domino’s launched multiple deep-discount weeks and even an “Emergency Pizza” freebie for loyal app users, while rivals responded in kind (one mid-sized chain rolled out an all-you-can-eat buffet promotion, another introduced a budget menu of large pies). These deals are designed to drive frequency and steal share from the competition, essentially training customers to look for the best pizza bargain. The risk is that constant discounting can eat into margins (already thin) and potentially dilute brand premium – but for now, the chains seem willing to trade a bit of profit for traffic. As long as grocery prices remain high, a family may still see a $7.99 carry-out pizza as a good value dinner, and the chains want to be foremost in that value conversation.

• Leveraging Technology and Loyalty: Pizza chains were early adopters of online ordering and delivery tech, and they are leaning on that head start to stay competitive. Robust mobile apps, user-friendly websites, and even AI-powered phone bots have streamlined the ordering process. These investments not only improve efficiency (lowering labor needs per order) but also meet customers’ expectations for convenience. Digital loyalty programs have become especially important in the fight to win back customers. Both Domino’s and Papa John’s have reported that their loyalty members tend to order more frequently – and perhaps more importantly, the data collected helps the companies personalize promotions and anticipate trends. For example, knowing a customer’s favorite order or how often they buy pizza can enable targeted deals that increase the chances of repeat business. Loyalty program data is a goldmine for marketing: it allows segmentation (families vs. college students vs. sports fans ordering during big games) and can guide menu innovation (e.g. if data shows many customers adding chicken wings to orders, that’s a cue to expand wing offerings or combos). In the post-pandemic recovery, digital engagement has been a bright spot for pizza chains. It helped them maintain relatively low volatility in salesdespite the ups and downs of the economy. The ongoing challenge is turning those digital strengths into sustained growth by keeping users engaged and not losing them to the plethora of other food apps on their phones.

• Operational Efficiency and Format Changes: To combat rising costs, pizza operators are innovating behind the scenes. Automation is slowly making inroads – from robotic kitchen assistants that spread sauce, to self-service kiosks at stores, to AI that optimizes delivery routes. Every saved minute in prep time or mile in delivery helps margins. Some pizza chains are experimenting with ghost kitchens (delivery-only outlets with no dining room) to expand into new areas with lower overhead. Others are co-locating with partner brands (for instance, a pizza and ice cream combo store) to share rent and labor. We’re also seeing a modest trend of smaller footprint stores aimed purely at carry-out and delivery, which cuts down on space and utility costs. The use of technology to “enhance efficiency and customer convenience” is seen as essential for sustaining growth in this mature industry. Even as they tighten operations, chains are also carefully watching quality – because if the experience or food deteriorates too much in the name of efficiency, customers will have no shortage of alternatives.

Looking ahead, the competitive landscape for quick-service dining will likely stay intense, and pizza chains will need to play both offense and defense. Offensively, that means innovating – in menu, marketing, and technology – to recapture consumers’ attention. Defensively, it means managing costs tightly and differentiating their offerings from the pack. The post-pandemic consumer has proven fickle: one week they may crave a classic pepperoni pie, the next week a chicken sandwich or a grain bowl. To remain a staple, pizza players must remind Americans why they loved pizza in the first place (the comfort, the flavor, the sharing aspect) while evolving enough to fit modern lifestyles.

Analysts say there is hope for a slice of growth. The industry’s forecasted return to growth (around 1–2% annually) suggests that pizza isn’t going away – it’s too embedded in American culture and habits. But to achieve even that modest growth, pizza restaurants will have to battle harder for each customer. They face a restaurant arena that’s far more crowded and dynamic than in decades past. The days of easy delivery dominance are over; what lies ahead is a more level playing field where pizza must compete on quality, value, and experience like everybody else.

In the end, pizza may be a beloved classic, but even classics must adapt. The companies that find the right recipe – balancing cost control, savvy marketing (perhaps “protein-packed” pizza or new healthy toppings?), and customer experience – will be the ones to reclaim lost ground. If they succeed, the phrase “let’s just order a pizza” might once again become the default answer to “What’s for dinner?” on Friday night in America. For now, though, the struggle is real: the U.S. pizza restaurant industry is learning that no slice of the market is guaranteed – it has to be earned, one pie at a time.

January 8, 2026, by a collective of authors at MMCG Invest, LLC, SBA (7a) and 504 SBA (Small Business Administration) feasibility study company

Sources:

• National Restaurant Association — “Off-Premises Restaurant Trends 2025” (Apr 15, 2025). Weekly takeout / drive-thru / delivery usage rates.

• Domino’s Pizza — Press release: “Domino’s Introduces a New Way to Order Using Uber Eats Marketplace” (Jul 12, 2023). Third-party marketplace integration.

• Reuters — “Domino’s to start using Uber for food orders…” (Jul 12, 2023). Independent reporting context on Domino’s/Uber partnership and delivery strategy shift.

• IBISWorld Report (OD4320 Pizza restaurants in the US)

• Associated Press — “Domino’s Pizza signs deal with Uber Eats…” (Jul 12, 2023). Additional confirmation and rollout details.

• Nation’s Restaurant News — “How in-house delivery is changing ahead of California’s $20 minimum wage” (Jan 8, 2024). Pizza delivery labor economics and operational redesign.

• California Department of Industrial Relations (DLSE) — “Fast Food Minimum Wage FAQ.” Official wage floor reference.

• LegiScan — California AB1228 bill text. Primary-source statutory language on the $20/hour provision.

• Ogletree Deakins — analysis: “California Governor Signs Fast Food Industry Minimum Wage Law” (Oct 3, 2023). Legal interpretation and employer implications.

• Circana — “Restaurant Loyalty Members Visit 20 Brands Annually…” (Jun 12, 2025). Loyalty penetration and traffic trends (helpful for comps / traffic discussion).

• Nation’s Restaurant News — coverage of Circana loyalty findings (Jun 12, 2025). Secondary reporting layer for easier quoting.

• Restaurant Business / Technomic — “The Technomic Top 500 2025” ranking hub. Chain system-sales benchmarking reference point.

• Restaurant Business / Technomic — Chick-fil-A profile page (Top 500 Chains 2025). Brand-level comps for chicken QSR vs. pizza narratives.

• Nation’s Restaurant News — “Inside Chick-fil-A’s rise to 3rd-largest restaurant brand.” Editorial framing around chicken growth and unit economics.

• PMQ Pizza Magazine — “Pizza Power Report 2025: Top 30 Pizza Chains…” (Dec 5, 2024). Pizza chain sales rankings and brand comps.

• National Restaurant Association — “State of the Restaurant Industry 2025” (PDF). Macro demand, labor, and pricing outlook to triangulate with MMCG estimates.

• USDA Economic Research Service — Chart: “Total food spending reached $2.58 trillion in 2024” (Sep 29, 2025). Food-away-from-home spending trendline to contextualize category shifts.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI Table 2 (detailed expenditure categories). Inflation backdrop (food away from home, etc.) for restaurant pricing pressure.