Chicken Chains Spread Their Wings: A New Era for Fast-Food Chicken

The U.S. fast-food chicken restaurant industry, part of the limited-service restaurant category (NAICS 722513), has emerged as one of the most dynamic corners of quick service. As of 2025, it generates roughly $63.7 billion in annual revenue and employs about 775,000 people, with more than 150 businesses active nationwide. Growth has been robust in the post-pandemic recovery, with industry revenue expanding at an estimated 5.6% compound annual rate between 2020 and 2025, before moderating to a projected 1.1% CAGR through 2030 as the market matures. Despite this deceleration, the sector remains structurally attractive: poultry continues to gain share as a relatively affordable, high-protein alternative to beef; consumers are increasingly reliant on convenient, off-premise dining; and a handful of powerful brands – led by Chick-fil-A, Popeyes, KFC, Raising Cane’s and a cluster of regional chains – account for the majority of systemwide sales. For lenders, developers and investors, this combination of scale, resilient demand and operational evolution makes the chicken QSR segment a critical benchmark for und

Americans’ love affair with fried chicken has reached a fever pitch, reshaping the quick-service restaurant (QSR) landscape and challenging old-guard burger joints. Sales at chicken-centric chains have been soaring – the Wall Street Journal reported that in 2024, U.S. chicken QSRs saw nearly 9% growth year-on-year, far outpacing the 1.4% increase of burger chains. This surging demand comes even as the industry grapples with rising costs and evolving consumer tastes. From Chick-fil-A to KFC, Popeyes, Raising Cane’s and regional contenders, chicken chains are innovating on menus, adjusting prices and portions, recalibrating where and how they open stores, and leveraging technology to navigate labor and commodity headwinds. Lenders, developers, and investors have taken notice: today’s chicken QSRs boast some of the strongest sales volumes in fast food, making them hot properties in real estate – but also raising questions about how long the boom can last. In this in-depth analysis, we examine the outlook for the U.S. QSR chicken industry, comparing leading brands’ strategies on menu evolution, pricing, location footprint, and financial performance, all while unpacking the macroeconomic forces driving change.

From Sandwich Wars to Salads: Menu Evolution at Leading Chicken Chains

It wasn’t long ago that a single menu item ignited a frenzy now known as the chicken sandwich wars. In August 2019, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen launched a crispy chicken sandwich that went viral, sparking a social media showdown with Chick-fil-A and triggering a stampede of demand. Popeyes’ same-store sales rocketed 34% in Q4 2019, and systemwide sales jumped over 40% that quarter thanks to the sandwich’s success. The broader impact was remarkable: within months, more than 20 fast-food brands (including many regional chicken chains) rolled out new or revamped fried chicken sandwiches to stake their claim in the trend. This intense competition dramatically reshaped menus industry-wide – suddenly, a premium chicken sandwich became a must-have item to attract customers.

Today, the core menus at Chick-fil-A, KFC, Popeyes, and their peers are broader and more innovative than they were pre-2019. Chick-fil-A, known for its iconic simple sandwich, has expanded cautiously with seasonal specialties and premium limited-time offers rather than drastic permanent additions. For example, its summertime Smokehouse BBQ Bacon sandwich – a marinated grilled chicken breast topped with brown sugar bacon, Colby-Jack cheese and BBQ sauce – has rotated in as a popular limited item, offered in both original and spicy versions. The chain has also emphasized health-conscious choices: Chick-fil-A introduced entrée salads and fruit cups years ago and continues to highlight its grilled chicken options (sandwiches and “grilled nuggets”) for calorie-conscious customers. It was one of the first QSRs to prominently display calorie counts on menu boards, catering to diners mindful of nutrition. This transparency, coupled with consistently high food quality, reinforces Chick-fil-A’s trust with its loyal customer base and allows it to experiment with new flavors without alienating patrons.

Other major players have taken a different tack. KFC – the 70-year-old granddad of fast-food chicken – has spent recent years simplifying its sprawling menu and modernizing its offerings. After watching upstarts steal the spotlight, KFC finally introduced a new extra-crispy chicken sandwich in early 2021 to compete head-on with Popeyes and Chick-fil-A. That sandwich, featuring a hefty double-breaded filet and thicker pickles on a brioche bun, quickly became a menu staple and helped KFC regain some relevance in the sandwich arena. The chain has also played with nostalgia and innovation: in 2023, KFC brought back wraps (a throwback to its twister wraps, now filled with crispy tenders) and even tested plant-based “Beyond Fried Chicken” nuggets for a limited time in 2022 – an attempt to appeal to meatless diners. At the same time, KFC has trimmed low-selling items (reports emerged that popcorn chicken and some signature sides were cut to streamline operations) and doubled down on its core bucket meals and famous bowls. Like its competitors, KFC has responded to consumer wellness trends by pledging to eliminate antibiotics in its poultry supply and by exploring higher-quality ingredients. By 2018, both KFC and Popeyes had committed to stop sourcing chickens raised with antibiotics, signaling to health-conscious consumers that they are adapting to modern food standards.

Popeyes, for its part, rode the sandwich wave it started and has continued to innovate within its spicy, Cajun-inspired wheelhouse. The Cajun fried chicken specialist introduced Nuggets in 2021 (essentially bite-size versions of its sandwich fillet) to extend its boneless chicken offerings. It has also toyed with non-fried options – for instance, a blackened chicken sandwich (seasoned and grilled instead of battered and fried) debuted as a limited-time offering, appealing to those seeking a lower-carb, grilled alternative. Popeyes hasn’t neglected its Louisiana roots either: the menu still features bone-in fried chicken, tenders, shrimp, red beans and rice, and other Southern sides, but the chain periodically brings back fan favorites like the spicy Ghost Pepper Wings to keep excitement high. After seeing phenomenal growth in 2019–2020, Popeyes appears focused on balancing its menu with both indulgent items (like a recent buffalo-ranch sandwich variation) and incremental quality improvements (such as removing antibiotics and launching a rewards app for personalized deals).

Meanwhile, Raising Cane’s has become an industry phenomenon precisely by not diversifying its menu. The Baton Rouge-born chain sells essentially one thing – fried chicken fingers – and sells it exceedingly well. A typical Raising Cane’s menu has only a few combo options (chicken fingers in quantities of 3, 4, 6, etc., plus crinkle-cut fries, coleslaw, Texas toast, and Cane’s Sauce) and virtually no limited-time specials. In an era when competitors chase the latest sandwich craze or spicy twist, Cane’s has stuck resolutely to its “One Love” motto of quality chicken finger meals. This singular focus has fostered a cult following (customers call themselves “Caniacs”) and streamlined Cane’s operations for speed and consistency. Co-CEO AJ Kumaran says the brand deliberately ignores short-term fads: “We don’t let ourselves get distracted by the latest food trends and instead remain focused on the same menu we’ve had for 29 years, and it continues to pay off,” he told Newsweek. Indeed, that strategy is fueling extraordinary growth – as discussed later, Cane’s is now outpacing legacy chains in sales. The only notable menu “innovations” at Cane’s might be its occasional new dipping sauce or special edition merch; otherwise, the playbook is to execute the basics flawlessly.

Regional chicken chains are also evolving their menus to compete. Bojangles, a Southern favorite known for fried chicken and buttermilk biscuits, introduced its own Bojangles Chicken Sandwich in 2021 to join the sandwich wars. That brioche-bun, hand-breaded filet offering (with Cajun spice and zesty mayo) was a significant move for a chain that historically emphasized bone-in chicken and biscuit sandwiches. Bojangles has since played to its strengths by also featuring chicken biscuit breakfast sandwiches and unique Southern sides (like dirty rice and seasoned pinto beans) to differentiate itself. Zaxby’s, another Southeast-based chain, likewise launched a new Signature Sandwich in late 2020 – a direct response to Popeyes with a bigger, crunchier filet and a creamy Zax sauce – which helped boost its sales. Zaxby’s has always had a broader menu (including wings, salads “Zalads”, and appetizers), but like others, it has found that a top-notch chicken sandwich is now non-negotiable in this segment. Even chicken-wing specialist Wingstop joined the fray, rolling out chicken sandwiches in 12 flavors in 2022 – an unexpected pivot that turned its saucy boneless wings into a sandwich format, illustrating how pervasive the sandwich trend became.

Not every innovation is indulgent; many chicken chains are also looking to healthier offerings and variety. Several now offer grilled chicken alternatives (Chick-fil-A’s grilled nuggets and Cool Wrap, El Pollo Loco’s traditional flame-grilled chicken, etc.) and salads topped with chicken. El Pollo Loco, a fire-grilled chicken chain with a Mexican twist, is even planning to add a crispy fried chicken option to its menu in 2026 after nearly a decade of serving only grilled poultry – a reversal that shows even a “healthier” brand sees opportunity in the fried chicken boom. Across the board, there’s also a rise in off-menu and catering options: family meal packs, party platters of nuggets or tenders (offered by Chick-fil-A, Zaxby’s and others) have grown in popularity, tapping into group dining occasions. This reflects a broader strategy to increase sales volume in new ways, beyond the traditional dine-in or drive-thru individual combo.

Crucially, menu evolution isn’t just about new products – it’s also about quality and transparency. In response to consumer concerns, leading chains have made high-profile commitments to better ingredients (e.g. no antibiotic-raised chicken) and clearly communicate nutritional info. Posting calorie counts on menu boards has become standard, normalizing informed choices between, say, a fried sandwich and a grilled one. The bet is that empowered customers will reward honesty and perhaps be enticed to add on a lower-calorie item (like a fruit cup or iced tea) rather than feeling misled. These efforts tie into a growing segment of health-conscious patrons – by offering a few “better-for-you” items or smaller portion options alongside the classic fried fare, chicken chains hope to capture both indulgent cravings and lighter dining occasions. So far, it appears to be working: premium seasonal items and slight menu refreshes have helped drive traffic and higher check averages at many chicken specialists, while the core crowd-pleasers remain as popular as ever.

The Cost Crunch: Pricing, Portion Sizes, and Calorie Counts in an Inflationary Era

Fast-food pricing inflation has hit chicken lovers hard in the past three years. Menu prices at virtually all major QSR chicken chains have climbed significantly since 2022, driven by surging input costs and wage inflation. In fact, Chick-fil-A – which once prided itself on a ~$3 chicken sandwich – has hiked prices so much that a basic Chick-fil-A sandwich now costs around $5.75 on averages. A recent analysis found Chick-fil-A raised its classic sandwich price by 15% in 2022 and then enacted a further 6% across-the-board increase in early 2023. Taken together, customers saw roughly a 21% jump in just two years for the chain’s signature item. That far outstrips general inflation over the same period, meaning the beloved Chick-fil-A sandwich is appreciably more expensive in real terms than it was pre-pandemic. Other chains have implemented similar hikes: industry-wide data from 2022 showed fast-food menu prices up about 12.9% on average, with some items rising much more (for example, Chick-fil-A’s grilled sandwich went up $0.66, and even McDonald’s Big Mac and Wendy’s burgers saw double-digit cent increases). In 2023 and 2024, menu prices continued to edge up as commodity and labor pressures persisted, though the pace slowed slightly from the sharp increases of 2022.

It’s not just higher price tags – in many cases, customers are paying more for less. The specter of shrinkflation has entered the fast-food chicken arena, as chains subtly reduce portion sizes to cut costs while trying not to scare off value-sensitive patrons with huge price jumps. Chick-fil-A uses whole breast meat and acknowledges some natural variation in fillet size, but the chorus of similar customer experiences suggests a real trend rather than random flukes.

It’s not just Chick-fil-A. At Zaxby’s, fans have reported “chicken finger shrinkage” – one customer humorously noted their chicken finger was nearly eclipsed in length and thickness by a french fry. Others chimed in to confirm: “They look half the size they were before, no exaggeration,” wrote one Zaxby’s patron, while another said the meals that used to leave them stuffed now feel insufficient. Similar complaints have popped up about Bojanglesbiscuits getting smaller and KFC reducing the number of tenders in a combo meal unless you pay extra. While mostly anecdotal, these reports align with an inflationary strategy many restaurants quietly deploy: rather than continually raising menu prices (which can trigger consumer backlash or trade-down), trim the portion or the side dish a bit to save on food costs. The result is a form of hidden inflation – you might pay the same $7.99 for a combo as last year, but you’re getting fewer fries or slightly less chicken than before.

The consequence of these pricing and portion adjustments is a nuanced change in calorie counts and value perceptions. Smaller portions naturally carry slightly fewer calories – that downsized Chick-fil-A sandwich, for instance, might shave off 30–50 calories simply by having less chicken. For health-conscious consumers, that’s not necessarily unwelcome, but only if the price drops commensurately (which it hasn’t). On the flip side, many chains have introduced more calorie-laden premium items to drive up check averages – like sandwiches loaded with bacon, cheese and special sauces, or bigger side orders – which can push meal calorie totals higher. The net effect on nutritional profiles is mixed. Some average combo meals have actually become a bit lighter in calories because the fries and drink sizes are reduced (one reason often cited is to improve drive-thru speed and cost – smaller portions cook faster and cost less). Yet other offerings are more indulgent than ever, such as Popeyes’ limited-time “Mega Sandwich” variations or KFC’s return of its Famous Bowl (piled high with fried popcorn chicken, gravy, and cheese).

Importantly, inflation-adjusted pricing trends show that chicken chains haven’t merely kept pace with rising costs – in many cases they’ve exceeded general inflation. Food-at-home and food-away-from-home inflation from 2022 to 2025 has been significant (the USDA noted food prices were up ~2.9% year-over-year as of late 2023, on top of the prior year’s increases). But a 21% jump in a Chick-fil-A meal over two years , or the roughly 13–15% overall QSR price inflation in 2022, means customers are paying a bit more in real terms. Some of that is driven by unavoidable input cost surges – for example, the price of chicken itself and cooking oil climbed in 2021, and beef price inflation actually outpaced chicken in 2024-2025, which encouraged many fast-food brands to emphasize chicken items to protect margins. But labor and packaging costs have also played a role. As Aaron Anderson, a restaurant consultant, explained: “The price of ingredients alongside packaging and transportation [has] skyrocketed. Supply disruptions… and a more competitive job market with higher wages [all] contribute” to menu price increases. In the chicken segment, where profit margins are relatively thin, operators have felt they have little choice but to pass on some of these costs to customers.

The risk, of course, is alienating the very customers that made these chains successful. Thus far, brand loyalty has provided some cushion. Chick-fil-A’s devotees, for instance, have largely swallowed the higher prices – the chain’s stellar customer service and consistency mean many are willing to pay a bit more. “Chick-fil-A’s strong brand loyalty might mitigate this impact to an extent,” Anderson noted, though he warned that even loyal lower-income customers could be priced out. Indeed, for budget-conscious diners, $8–$10 for a fast-food chicken combo might simply be too steep, especially when portion sizes are shrinking. There are early signs of pushback: some consumers report trading down to value menus or visiting less often as prices climb. In response, chicken chains are cautiously testing value deals again – bringing back the idea of a bundled meal at an attractive price point, albeit adjusted for today’s economics.

Many brands have leaned on the $5-$6 combo as a psychological barrier not to exceed, at least for entry-level meals. For example, Popeyes reintroduced a $5 meal deal in some markets, and KFC has marketed a $6 two-piece combo as an inflation fighter. However, maintaining those deals is getting harder. Commodity volatility and even geopolitics play a role – a recent broad U.S. import tariff increase in 2025 added a 10% duty on many imported goods, and up to 34% on some foods from certain countries, driving up costs for packaging, kitchen equipment, and even spices used by QSRs. An industry report noted that chains have “leaned on $5.0 bundles to defend traffic as lower-income diners trade down, but tariff-driven cost inflation limits discounting headroom and squeezes margins on chicken sandwiches and tenders”. In plainer terms, the classic $5 combo is becoming a money-loser unless companies find savings elsewhere.

Thus, the balancing act: raise prices where possible, trim portions quietly, but keep the value perception just high enough to retain customers. The overall calorie counts on menus might inch down as a result of shrinkflation (for instance, a Chick-fil-A meal that used to be ~1,200 calories might now be ~1,100 with smaller fries and drink), but most chains are not actively advertising that. Instead, they tout any positive nutritional changes (like cleaner ingredients or grilled options) and hope customers don’t notice that 8-piece nugget meal isn’t quite as hearty as it once was. For now, consumer demand for fast-food chicken remains strong despite these under-the-radar changes – a testament to how much Americans crave convenient chicken meals. But if inflation persists, chicken chains know they must find more creative ways to deliver value. As tech CEO Sam Zietz put it, “Restaurants must find ways to offset costs, without passing it all to the customer or they risk losing them”. In the next section, we’ll see how location strategies and operations are shifting in pursuit of that goal.

Where the Chicken Flies: Urban vs. Suburban Restaurant Strategies

Location, location, location – it’s a truism in real estate and just as crucial in fast food. For QSR chicken chains, the expansion playbook historically focused on car-friendly suburban sites with drive-thrus and ample parking. But as the industry matures and prime suburban corners fill up, leading brands are increasingly eyeing urban markets and other non-traditional formats to keep growing. The result is a more diverse range of store footprints: from sprawling freestanding drive-thrus in Texas to inline urban storefronts in Manhattan, chicken chains are adapting their restaurant designs and location strategies to suit different geographies.

The prototypical Chick-fil-A is a freestanding building (~4,000–5,000 square feet) with a double-lane drive-thru, situated in a high-traffic suburban corridor or a shopping center pad site. This model has served Chick-fil-A extraordinarily well in car-centric regions; many locations handle such volume that they deploy employees with tablets outside to expedite drive-thru orders, and it’s common to see drive-thru lines wrapping around the building. However, even Chick-fil-A has run into the limits of suburban capacity – local officials in some areas have complained of traffic backups, and new projects sometimes face zoning challenges due to the brand’s popularity. Moreover, Chick-fil-A’s national expansion has compelled it to enter denser urban markets where the standard blueprint doesn’t fit. In response, the company has proven surprisingly agile. In New York City, Chick-fil-A opened a five-story, 12,000-square-foot restaurant in 2018 (complete with a rooftop terrace) to overcome sky-high rents and minimal ground-floor space. The chain now operates several multi-level stores in Manhattan and other city centers, effectively building upward since they can’t build outward. An industry report noted that Chick-fil-A even developed a four-story outlet with rooftop dining in NYC to maximize urban throughput on a small footprint. These urban outposts have no drive-thru and little seating compared to suburban units, but they rely on heavy foot traffic and digital orders. Chick-fil-A’s urban strategy also includes leasing smaller inline spaces (e.g., ground-floor retail in office buildings) and focusing on carry-out and delivery to serve customers in dense areas who may not linger to dine in.

Chick-fil-A isn’t alone in facing the urban vs. suburban equation. Drive-thru service remains the lifeblood of fast-food chicken – it’s the second most popular service format (after traditional counter service) and has only grown more vital as Americans seek convenience. Restaurants that cater to drive-thru demand have thrived, especially since the pandemic. “Fueled by increasingly hectic lifestyles and time constraints, US customers favor services that prioritize efficiency and convenience,” an IBISWorld industry analysis noted, and the popularity of drive-thru is expected to persist as a result. Raising Cane’s, for example, credits much of its success to a relentless focus on drive-thru throughput – many Cane’s locations feature dual drive-thru lanes and can serve an astounding number of cars per hour, aided by the simplicity of its menu. Cane’s often targets sites near universities and suburban shopping hubs where it can build its standard prototype (roughly 3,000–3,500 sq. ft. with indoor dining and double drive-thru lanes). The company’s expansion into new states typically prioritizes suburban areas where land is available for new builds. Even as it pushes into big cities, Cane’s tries to bring drive-thru convenience where possible. However, like Chick-fil-A, when Cane’s made its grand debut in New York City in 2023, it had to adapt: its Times Square flagship is an 8,000-square-foot, two-story restaurant with no drive-thru, but plenty of digital ordering screens and even a retail merch section to capitalize on tourist foot traffic. The location (in the historic Paramount Building on Broadway) was chosen for maximum brand visibility, and at 8,000 sq. ft. it’s unusually large by NYC standards, showing Cane’s willingness to invest heavily for a high-profile urban presence. Yet this is the exception – the chain plans 25 more NYC-area restaurants in coming years, likely in smaller formats across boroughs, as it balances flagship showpieces with practical storefronts in dense neighborhoods.

For Popeyes and KFC, urban locations are more familiar territory – both brands have long operated in city neighborhoods, often in compact inline shops or co-branded units. In cities like New York, it’s not uncommon to find Popeyes in a former diner space or a narrow storefront, focusing on takeout. KFC historically paired with Taco Bell in some urban combo stores (since both are Yum! Brands siblings), saving on real estate by sharing a kitchen and counter. But one challenge urban sites pose is the loss of drive-thru sales. “Drive-thru window services traditionally mark the fast-food chicken industry. However, expansions into metropolitan landscapes often render these impractical due to spatial limitations and city regulations,” industry researchers note. In dense cities, there is simply no room for drive-thru lanes, and local laws or landlords may prohibit the traffic they bring. To compensate, chicken chains double-down on takeout and delivery in those environments. Even without a window to pull up to, busy urban customers want their food fast – so chains have added features like mobile ordering for pickup, dedicated courier pickup shelves, and even walk-up windows. The adaptability is evident: “Despite the loss of drive-thru sales in urban environments, takeout services are stepping in to fill this gap, demonstrating the industry’s adaptability to changing consumer habits and environment,” the IBISWorld report explains. In practice, this means a Popeyes in downtown Boston might devote most of its space to kitchen and front counter, with only a few stools for dine-in, expecting that most customers will grab their chicken and go (or get it delivered via app). It’s a different profile from the sprawling roadside Popeyes off an interstate exit, but both serve their respective markets.

The shift in store formats goes beyond just urban vs. suburban. Many chicken chains are experimenting with non-traditional locations and smaller footprints to reach customers in new ways. Bojangles, for instance, offers no fewer than six different restaurant prototypes to its franchisees – from a full-size 3,900 sq. ft. dine-in model down to an 800 sq. ft. “express” unit for convenience stores or travel plazas. Notably, Bojangles has developed a drive-thru-only modular prototype, essentially a scaled-down building focused purely on drive-thru and walk-up service, which can even be built with multiple lanes or placed in a small lot. This is aimed at expanding into new markets (say, a city in the Midwest where Bojangles is brand-new) quickly and efficiently – the modular units can be manufactured off-site and installed, reducing construction costs. Bojangles is also pushing into non-traditional venues like travel centers, airports, universities, and stadiums as part of its growth strategy.Those locations might take the form of a food court stall or a counter in a gas station, again with limited menu offerings and space, but extending the brand’s reach. The fact that Bojangles sees 37% of its sales before 11 a.m. (thanks to its biscuit breakfast) also gives it a leg up in places like highway rest stops where morning traffic is crucial.

Wingstop provides another interesting contrast in footprint strategy. As primarily a takeout/delivery wings concept, most Wingstop units are quite small (often 1,200–1,800 sq. ft.) with no drive-thru and minimal seating. This model actually thrives in urban areas or dense suburban neighborhoods because it doesn’t require much real estate; Wingstop can tuck into a strip mall slot or a city block and serve a high volume of app-based orders for pickup. During the pandemic, Wingstop’s digital-centric model helped it boom, and it continues to expand aggressively, including in many markets where big drive-thru parcels are hard to come by. Wingstop’s success hints at a broader point: off-premise dining is now king across fast food. The chicken QSRs are adapting their physical spaces accordingly. We see dining rooms shrinking or disappearing in new builds, replaced by double drive-thru lanes, curbside pickup spots (as visible in the Chick-fil-A photo above, with designated curbside order signs), and larger kitchen capacity for online orders. An analysis of retail real estate trends found that quick-service brands are “reducing dining room footprints and parking in favor of drive-thru and pick-up options,” which aligns with consumer preferences for convenience and the rise of off-premises dining. This is an important consideration for developers: a smaller building with more drive-thru infrastructure might be the template for new leases, rather than the old 100-seat dining room that often sat half-empty. We’re even seeing entirely new concepts like Chick-fil-A’s upcoming “Drive-Thru Express” locations (featuring multiple conveyor belt drive-thru lanes and no dining room) being piloted to further optimize throughput in suburban areas where dine-in demand is low.

Real estate costs and constraints are another driving force in location strategy. Retail vacancy rates in the U.S. hit historic lows (around 4.9% in 2023) and average asking rents reached about $22.78 per square foot, according to CBRE data. In many high-growth metro areas, there’s a fierce competition for prime pads and street corners among not just restaurants, but also banks, coffee shops, and other retailers. Fast-food chains, even successful ones, often find themselves outbid or facing “unfavorable lease terms” in these hot markets. A Chick-fil-A or Cane’s can justify paying top-dollar rent due to their high volumes (more on their unit economics soon), but smaller chains might struggle with the rent-to-sales math. Consequently, several brands are “prioritizing expansion in regions with lower costs and more business-friendly regulations”. In practice, this means focusing growth in Sun Belt states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee – places with cheaper land, fewer zoning hurdles, and booming suburban populations – and being more selective or patient about entering expensive markets like California’s Bay Area or the Northeast urban corridor. We see this with Bojanglesexplicitly: after saturating the Carolinas, it has newly opened franchise development in Ohio, Nevada, Arkansas and beyond, where it hopes franchisees find the economics favorable. Similarly, Raising Cane’s initially concentrated on the South and Midwest and is only now tackling the pricier Northeast and West Coast once it has scale and deep pockets.

From an investment standpoint, these location strategies are creating intriguing opportunities. Net lease investors have observed that ground leases for the top chicken chains (like Chick-fil-A and Cane’s) remain in extremely high demand, with cap rates (a measure of yield) compressing as investor confidence grows. In Q1 2025, Chick-fil-A locations were trading at cap rates about 30 basis points lower than a year prior, reflecting the intense competition among investors to own a piece of the chain’s real estate. Why the enthusiasm? Because a well-chosen chicken restaurant site – whether suburban drive-thru or urban inline – can be a goldmine if the brand is strong. That brings us to the financial metrics that matter for lenders and developers, which we’ll explore in the final section.

By the Numbers: Sales Volumes, Footprints, and Financial Outlook

For those financing or developing QSR properties, the average unit volume (AUV) of a restaurant is a key indicator of its economic vigor. In the chicken category, AUVs vary widely, and they directly influence rent affordability, optimal footprint size, and expansion potential. The latest data show a clear hierarchy: Chick-fil-A reigns supreme with by far the highest unit sales, while Raising Cane’s leads a second tier of high performers, and legacy brands like KFC and Popeyes lag with more modest volumes.

According to Technomic figures, Chick-fil-A finished 2024 with an average unit volume of $7.49 million across its 3,109 U.S. locations. This number is staggering – it means the average Chick-fil-A restaurant sells almost $7.5 million of food annually, more than double the AUV of most competitors. (For comparison, McDonald’s U.S. AUV is around $3.9 million.and Wendy’s is closer to $2.0–$2.5 million.) Chick-fil-A’s industry-leading AUV has only grown in recent years (it was about $5.0 million per store back in 2017) and is a testament to its fanatical customer base and operational efficiency. Even more impressive, Chick-fil-A achieves these sales despite being closed on Sundays. From a real estate perspective, such volume per store enables Chick-fil-A to support higher rents and capital investments. Indeed, the chain’s average rent in sale-leaseback deals has climbed near $200,000 annually, yet the rent-to-sales ratio is a comfortable ~2.3%. By keeping occupancy costs low relative to sales, Chick-fil-A locations are highly profitable for operators and attractive to landlords; the company can absorb prime urban rents or expensive buildouts and still make money, which partly explains its aggressive push into high-cost markets like New York and Seattle.

Not far behind is Raising Cane’s, which has rocketed up the rankings. Cane’s ended 2024 with an AUV of about $6.56 million per restaurant (across 828 locations), placing it second in the chicken segment. This reflects Cane’s extraordinary same-store sales growth streak – 15+ years without a comp sales decline – and its focus on high-traffic suburban sites. Cane’s has essentially proven that its simple concept can generate McDonald’s-beating volumes when executed well. The chain’s leadership is bullish on reaching even greater heights: founder Todd Graves has publicly stated a goal of hitting $8 million AUV and growing to 1,600 restaurants, which would imply total sales approaching $10 billion annually. That would put Cane’s on par with Chick-fil-A’s current scale. Ambitious as it sounds, Cane’s trajectory supports some optimism – it doubled its sales from 2021 to 2024 (reaching $5.1 billion systemwide last year) and expanded from roughly 500 to over 900 units in that time. By 2025 it has overtaken KFC to become the #2 chicken chain by U.S. sales, trailing only Chick-fil-A and Popeyes. For lenders, Cane’s offers an alluring combination: very high unit volumes (nearly as high as Chick-fil-A’s), an unblemished sales-growth record, and a proven ability to replicate its model in new markets (42 states and counting as of 2024). The main caution is whether those volumes can be maintained as it saturates more markets and faces direct competition from incumbents on every corner. Thus far, Cane’s appears to stimulate new demand – often opening in areas that have multiple Chick-fil-A’s, Zaxby’s, etc., yet still drawing big crowds – but the true test will come as it pushes into the last few regions it hasn’t touched.

Beneath the top two, there’s a steep drop. A handful of chains manage AUVs in the $4 million range: notably, Jollibee, the Filipino fried chicken import, averages about $4.4 million per U.S. store (albeit across only 75 U.S. locations, often in areas with heavy Filipino populations that drive outsized traffic). And Nashville-based Hattie B’s Hot Chicken, a smaller fast-casual concept with a cult following, also boasts around $4.4 million AUV – but with just 14 units, it’s a niche player. These examples show the potential of specialty chicken concepts in urban markets, though they’re not (yet) major national players. More relevant to broad trends are the mid-level performers: only two chicken chains in Technomic’s Top 500 list fell between $3–$4 million AUV in 2024 – Pollo Campero (a Central American chicken chain) at ~$3.17M and Dave’s Hot Chicken (a rapidly franchising spicy tenders concept) at ~$3.10M.

The $2–3 million AUV tier includes many familiar regional names. Chains pushing past the $2M mark as of 2024 include Wingstop, Zaxby’s, Bojangles, El Pollo Loco, Slim Chickens, Pollo Tropical, and Huey Magoo’s, among others. These brands have solid sales volumes and are generally growing, making them attractive to multi-unit franchisees and developers in their regions. For instance, Bojangles reports an average unit volume “over $2 million” and years of positive same-store sales growth. Its breakfast offering boosts daily sales, and franchisees see opportunity in markets where competitors don’t do breakfast. Wingstop’s AUV has climbed above $1.5–$2M in recent years, fueled by strong digital sales and the wing delivery craze (some sources put Wingstop’s 2023 AUV around $1.6M, up significantly from pre-pandemic levels). These mid-tier AUV chains can usually sustain moderate rents – they might expect to pay, say, $50,000–$100,000 in annual rent (depending on market) to keep occupancy around 5% of sales. They also tend to occupy moderately sized spaces: Bojangles’ full-size stores range from 1,400 up to 3,900 sq. ft., and its smaller express models can be under 1,000 sq. ft.. Zaxby’s units are often around 3,000 sq. ft. with drive-thru, comparable to a typical fast-casual. Slim Chickens (an Arkansas-based chain expanding in the Midwest) usually builds around 2,800 sq. ft. stores with drive-thru. The real estate flexibility shown by Bojangles – six prototypes including drive-thru-only and food court formats – indicates that many in this tier are willing to customize footprints to chase growth opportunities, whether it’s a small-town lot or a college campus location.

At the lower end, several stalwart chicken chains have AUVs in the $1–2 million range. This group features big names like Popeyes, KFC, and Church’s Chicken (now rebranded some places as Church’s Texas Chicken). It may come as a surprise that the giants of decades past now post only middling per-unit sales: Popeyes U.S. AUV is roughly estimated around $1.8–$2.0M, and KFC’s around $1.3–$1.5Mj. In fact, an analysis by Jack in the Box’s franchise blog pegs KFC’s average unit volume at about $1.3 million as of the 2024 QSR50 report, which is only one-sixth of Chick-fil-A’s. These lower volumes are partly a function of legacy footprint (many KFCs are old, small units in rural areas with limited business) and perhaps brand fatigue. But they have significant implications: with ~$1.3M AUV, a typical KFC can only comfortably pay around $80–$100k in rent (assuming ~8% of sales) and still leave room for franchisee profit. That generally confines KFC to cheaper real estate – secondary sites, smaller towns, or older existing locations – unless the brand can dramatically lift its unit volumes. The same goes for Church’s, which in many markets scrapes by with ~$1M AUV; such units must have very low occupancy costs (often they own older buildings or lease in low-rent districts) to survive. Popeyes is a bit better off, having gotten a post-2019 bump; its franchise disclosure documents in recent years have indicated new Popeyes units often open with strong sales, but systemwide AUV is still under $2M. For developers and landlords, this means that while Popeyes and KFC are household names and generally reliable tenants (backed by large corporate franchisors), they cannot support the kind of high rents or ground lease terms that a Chick-fil-A or Cane’s can. A prime urban pad that might generate $5M+ sales for Chick-fil-A would likely be a poor fit for KFC unless the rent was heavily discounted or the concept fundamentally changed.

One positive development for these legacy brands is a renewed focus on unit economics and remodels to boost performance. KFC has been rolling out modernized store designs with updated kitchens that improve efficiency, and it’s seeing some payoff – parent company Yum! Brands reported KFC’s U.S. same-store sales rose in early 2025 after a long stagnant period. Popeyes, too, has been selectively remodeling high-volume stores and adding double drive-thrus to new builds where possible. The franchise community knows that to justify new unit growth, the average volumes must improve. That said, regional saturation is a challenge: KFC and Church’s are thick in parts of the South and Midwest, meaning any new store there often cannibalizes an old one. Popeyes still has whitespace in some western states and in smaller cities, which it is actively filling via new franchising deals. The growth of Chicken QSR overall – which IBISWorld projects to continue, albeit at a slower ~1.1% annual revenue growth to 2030 – will depend in part on how well the big franchisors manage territory planning. For example, Chick-fil-A has famously cautious expansion, adding only about 100 or so locations per year despite huge demand. This has kept its restaurants tremendously busy and allowed each new opening to debut with blockbuster sales. It still has room to grow in the Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest, and internationally (the chain has just begun expanding in Canada and will re-enter Europe soon), so saturation is not an immediate worry for Chick-fil-A. Raising Cane’s is in high-growth mode and explicitly targeting all major U.S. cities it hasn’t reached – as noted, it plans to hit 1,000 units by the end of 2025 and ultimately 1,600 and beyond. This rapid expansion will inevitably lead to overlap with competitors, but Cane’s is betting the market can absorb multiple chicken concepts in close proximity (much as several burger chains often coexist in the same trade area).

For lenders and developers, these financial metrics translate into a few key takeaways:

• Unit volumes drive rent affordability. A Chick-fil-A or Cane’s doing $5–7M can sustainably pay higher rent (six figures) and still have a healthy rent-to-sales ratio under 5%. This makes them low credit risk tenants and prized assets – it’s no wonder cap rates for these ground leases are as low as ~4%, reflecting investor confidence. Conversely, a site expected to do only $1M in sales cannot carry a high lease rate; deals for KFC/Church’s will be under tighter underwriting, often needing landlord contributions for remodels or lower base rent to ensure coverage ratios work.

• Footprint size and format are evolving. Smaller dining rooms and more off-premise infrastructure mean new builds might be physically smaller (thus cheaper to construct) even for high-volume stores. Bojangles’ range of 1,400–3,900 sq. ft. for full stores and down to 800 sq. ft. for express unitsshows the flexibility now. Developers may want to incorporate multi-lane drive-thrus or pick-up windows into site designs. Some brands are exploring retrofits of non-restaurant spaces – e.g., converting a former bank branch with drive-thru lanes into a fast-food restaurant. The willingness to try modular builds (Bojangles) or ghost kitchen outlets (some Chick-fil-A and Popeyes urban strategies) could also impact how projects are financed (shorter initial lease terms for a modular unit versus a traditional 20-year ground lease, for instance).

• Regional saturation guides growth capital. In saturated areas (like Atlanta for Chick-fil-A or North Carolina for Bojangles/Zaxby’s), incremental unit growth will slow, and investment might shift to rebuilding or relocatingolder stores rather than adding net new units. In contrast, in untapped markets (the North for Bojangles, Midwest for Zaxby’s, etc.), there is significant room for new development, and lenders can expect a pipeline of construction loans or sale-leaseback opportunities as those brands expand. Even some saturated brands find pockets of infill – e.g., Chick-fil-A is adding locations in dense cities where previously none existed, albeit in different format – which can be lucrative projects.

• Macro headwinds persist. High construction costs and interest rates in 2024–2025 have made new restaurant development more expensive and debt financing pricier. The tightened real estate market (with low vacancies and bidding wars for good sites) means some projects are delayed or canceled. We’ve seen many chains turn to build-to-suit developers to offload the upfront cost, then lease back the property – a model that only works if the projected sales justify it. In markets where land prices are prohibitive, chains might stick to remodeling existing stores rather than build new. Additionally, rising labor costs (with minimum wages increasing in many states) impact the break-even sales needed per store. According to IBISWorld, wage costs have been climbing ~5.6% annually in the fast-food chicken sector, and a 1.9% reduction in industry employment was observed as chains trimmed labor to cope. Operators are countering with tech (self-order kiosks, AI drive-thru ordering) to reduce staffing needs. For developers, a restaurant that can operate with fewer employees (through automation) might be more stable in the long run, but it often requires higher upfront investment in equipment.

Despite these pressures, the outlook for the U.S. QSR chicken industry remains broadly optimistic. Consumers show no sign of tiring of chicken sandwiches, tenders and wings – per capita poultry consumption continues to rise, and chicken has solidified its image as a versatile, relatively affordable protein. The industry proved resilient through the pandemic and is adapting to the post-pandemic normal with menu tweaks and service model changes. Total fast-food chicken restaurant revenue in the U.S. is projected to keep growing, albeit at a more moderate ~1.1% annual rate through 2030, reaching an estimated $67.2 billion. Profit margins have been pressured by costs, but as things stabilize, some margin recovery is expected. Successful chains will be those that align with shifting consumer preferences – whether that means offering a grilled alternative, ensuring speedy app ordering, or demonstrating community and ethical commitments (like sourcing and charitable giving – note Todd Graves’ mention of giving back $100 million to communities as Cane’s scales).

From a lender and developer perspective, QSR chicken brands today present a spectrum of opportunities: ultra-high-volume tenants like Chick-fil-A and Cane’s with stellar financials and low default risk; emerging regional players with strong growth and decent unit economics (but perhaps less proven longevity); and turnaround stories like KFC and Popeyes that still carry big brand equity and global backing, even if their unit metrics need improvement. The “battle for the chicken crown” is making headlines – KFC’s slip from the top 3, Cane’s ascension, Popeyes and Chick-fil-A duking it out for sandwich supremacy – but it’s also driving innovation and investment in the sector. As we’ve seen, several chicken concepts are now outshining McDonald’s on a per-store basis, a remarkable turnaround from a decade ago when burgers unquestionably ruled fast food. This suggests that, for investors, the fast-food pecking order is more open than ever.

In conclusion, the U.S. QSR chicken industry’s outlook is one of cautious optimism and relentless adaptation. Consumers can expect menu boards to keep evolving – perhaps more grilled items and premium LTOs to balance indulgence and health – and they may notice their combo meal costs a bit more or comes in a slightly smaller box. They’ll also likely find a chicken outlet in places they hadn’t before, be it a new drive-thru near the highway or a walk-up in a city center. For those financing these restaurants, the fundamentals of location quality and concept strength remain paramount. The “winners” will be chains that marry strong unit economics with smart growth strategies: leveraging technology to control costs, expanding in under-served markets while holding the line on quality, and finding the right format for each locale (urban kiosk or suburban double drive-thru) to meet customers where they are. If the current trends hold, the next few years will see chicken QSRs further solidify their dominance in fast food – and maybe give the burger joints a run for their money in the process. In the fast-food arena, it appears the chicken’s day has truly come home to roost.

December 2, 2025, by a Collective of authors at MMCG Invest, LLC, QSR and SBA feasibility study consultants

Sources:

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• Technomic. (2024). Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report 2024. Technomic Inc.

• Nation’s Restaurant News. (2025). “Here are the chicken chains with the highest average unit volumes.” Nation’s Restaurant News (Top 500 coverage / digital post), June 2025.

• Hugh Cameron. (2025). “KFC No Longer in Top 3 US Chicken Chains.” Newsweek, July 1, 2025.

• Suzanne Blake. (2023). “Chick-fil-A Prices Are Skyrocketing.” Newsweek, December 29, 2023.

• Food Truck Empire. (2023). Analysis of Chick-fil-A menu price increases, 2022–2023. Cited in Newsweek, “Chick-fil-A Prices Are Skyrocketing,” Dec. 29, 2023.

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• Restaurant Dive – Julie Littman. (2023). “Bojangles to surpass 1K units with current development plans.” Restaurant Dive, September 20, 2023.

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• Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers. (2025). “A record-breaking year of growth.” Corporate news release, 2024 year-in-review / 2025 outlook.

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