Emerging Trends in US Banking: A 2024 Outlook
Authored by Aliya Shibli, this analysis delves into the impending shift in the US banking sector. After a noticeable decrease in banking mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2023, the coming year is poised for a significant consolidation wave, particularly among smaller banks seeking new competitive edges.
Critical Pressures and Strategic Shifts
In the US, small-scale banks are currently under substantial pressure to merge, mainly to achieve greater operational scale. Yerbol Orynbayev, a former World Bank governor and now a financial services consultant in the US, forecasts a notable surge in M&A activities in 2024. This movement is seen as a strategic move for smaller banks to scale up, enhance digital capabilities, and forge strategic partnerships.
Despite potential benefits, there's an air of caution around the timing of these mergers due to regulatory uncertainties. Regional and community banks are especially feeling the heat, with fintechs carving out their niche and larger banks maintaining robust capital for expansion.
Defining the Bank Categories
The Federal Reserve classifies community banks as those with assets under $10bn and regional banks as those with assets between $10bn and $100bn. According to Orynbayev, for these banks to stay afloat and avoid bankruptcy, a shift towards operating at a significantly larger scale is essential, with consolidation being a key strategy.
M&A as a Lifeline
Orynbayev views consolidation as a lifesaver for small regional and community banks amidst looming economic downturns. He cites regulatory changes, the pursuit of scale, and digital capability enhancement as driving forces behind the anticipated M&A wave.
The Role of Technology and Strategic Partnerships
Investment in technologies like AI and machine learning, along with product digitalization, is crucial for smaller banks. This tech-driven approach necessitates significant capital, making mergers a viable path. Orynbayev also points out the potential for strategic partnerships with non-financial and lifestyle service providers, enhancing the banks' offerings.
Regulatory Dynamics and the Road Ahead
While consolidation offers strategic benefits, proactive regulatory support is crucial. This might involve legislative adjustments or stringent measures to prevent financial mishaps. John Curran of MUFG Americas and Isio Nelson from BAI suggest that regulatory uncertainties and the market environment might affect the pace of M&A activities, especially in banks with assets ranging from $10bn to $30bn.
The Digital Investment Divide
Larger, well-capitalized banks, having invested in digital initiatives, are likely to continue their dominance. These long-term tech investments are only beginning to yield returns, placing these banks in a favorable position compared to smaller counterparts.
M&A Market Stability and Future Prospects
After a sluggish start in 2023, the M&A market is stabilizing, with monthly deals worth between $200bn and $250bn, as reported by EY. In this evolving landscape, M&A emerges as a critical strategy for regional and community banks to secure their competitive edge and survive the challenging times ahead. Without such consolidation, smaller banks face a precarious future, concludes Orynbayev.
Source: The Banker