Bay Area Real Estate Sales (2024–2025): Trends, Highlights, and Market Context

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Introduction

Over the past year (approximately August 2024 through August 2025), the San Francisco Bay Area real estate market witnessed a broad spectrum of transaction activity across residential and commercial sectors. Using newly compiled sales data on 281 property transactions totaling roughly $15 billion, this analysis examines key trends and notable deals in categories ranging from multifamily residential to specialty commercial assets. Despite headwinds like rising interest rates and high vacancy in certain segments, investors continued to deploy capital – albeit selectively – resulting in significant sales in apartments, office towers, industrial logistics facilities, retail centers, development land, and more. This report is organized by property type (multifamily, office, industrial, retail, land, hospitality, specialty, etc.) to highlight the most interesting transactions by price and uniqueness within each sector. We also place these deals in context of market fundamentals, discussing patterns and implications for each category.

As shown above, multifamily apartments and commercial offices dominated the transaction volume, together comprising well over half of total sales by dollar value. Industrial and R&D/Flex properties also contributed meaningful volume, whereas categories like retail centers, hospitality (hotels), and healthcare facilities saw comparatively fewer large trades. Notably, the Bay Area investment market recorded about $6.8 billion in sales over $10 million in just the first half of 2025, indicating that activity picked up momentum into 2025 even as the cost of capital remained elevated. Indeed, higher interest rates have reshaped pricing and returns, forcing cap rates upward and limiting some leverage-fueled deals. Nonetheless, demand persisted for quality assets – especially in segments with resilient income streams or future upside – resulting in several headline-grabbing transactions. In the sections that follow, we delve into each major property category, examining the number of sales, total dollar volumes, top transactions, and what those indicate about broader market trends in the Bay Area.

Multifamily Residential (Apartments)

Apartment properties emerged as a cornerstone of Bay Area investment activity this past year. By our data, the multifamily sector (including standard apartments and student housing) saw 74 sales totaling about $5.2 billion, the highest of any category. Investors have gravitated to apartments for their stable cash flows and long-term demand, even amid rising financing costs. In fact, multifamily sales momentum improved in late 2024, rebounding from the 2023 slowdown. Transaction activity in San Francisco, for example, picked up in the second half of 2024, with multifamily sales reaching approximately $1.6 billion over the trailing 12 months. This resurgence was aided by some price adjustments – cap rates on mid-tier apartment assets expanded to ~5.7%, up from ~4.1% during 2020–2022 – which helped narrow the bid-ask gap and “get deals done” at more realistic valuations. By early 2025, apartment fundamentals were also on an upswing: average rents in San Francisco were up ~1.9% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and projected to hit new highs by 2025, as vacancy dipped to ~6.1%. Limited new supply (construction well below five-year averages) further underpinned the market, especially in core Bay Area counties.

Several large apartment complex sales underscored investor confidence in the multifamily sector’s long-term prospects. No fewer than five Bay Area apartment communities traded for over $175 million each during the year – a striking figure considering only a handful of U.S. single-asset apartment sales topped $250 million in 2024. The largest multifamily transaction was the sale of Hillsdale Garden Apartments in San Mateo, a 697-unit garden-style complex that Ethos Real Estate acquired for $252.4 million (about $362,000 per unit). This deal, which closed in October 2024, is especially noteworthy because the buyer plans to convert the nearly 70-year-old property into affordable housing for households below 80% of area median income, illustrating an innovative strategy of preserving long-term value through subsidized rents. Another headline deal occurred in July 2025 when Kennedy Wilson sold the 1,008-unit Bella Vista at Hilltop Apartments in Richmond/San Pablo for $225 million. Spanning over 1,000 units, Bella Vista is a massive complex in one of the more affordable East Bay submarkets, and its sale to a joint venture (including a nonprofit housing partner) highlights both the scale and evolving social aims (potentially an affordable component) of some recent multifamily investments.

Other major apartment sales included The Villages at Cupertino ($207.2M for a large 842-unit community in Cupertino), Summerwood Apartments ($203.2M for 324 units in Santa Clara), Franklin 299 in Redwood City ($184M for a newly built 299-unit luxury building), and L Seven in San Francisco ($177.5M for a 410-unit SoMa apartment building). These transactions – mostly involving well-occupied properties in strong job-center locations – demonstrate that buyers were willing to pay top dollar for Bay Area multifamily assets, even as cap rates rose, provided the assets had solid rent rolls or value-add potential. Indeed, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties saw particularly robust absorption and rent growth over this period, buoyed by their tech-driven economies and limited housing stock. Investors remain active when pricing aligns with market conditions, as one Chase Bank real estate manager noted, with deals still happening but “with adjusted parameters” in light of the higher interest rate environment.

Student housing deserves a brief mention as a niche within multifamily. The data show at least three notable student-oriented apartment sales in Berkeley – FOUND Study Southside ($62.0M), FOUND Study Downtown ($46.25M), and The Berk on College ($24.38M) – all transacting in late 2024 near the UC Berkeley campus. These purpose-built student housing properties attracted investor interest likely due to the perennial demand from the large student population. The cap rates on such assets tend to be competitive, but investors are betting on rent growth tied to rising enrollment and limited campus housing. While student housing is a relatively small subset (around $132M total, or ~2.5% of multifamily volume), it illustrates the diversity of residential asset types trading in the Bay Area.

Market context: The resurgence of apartment investment in the Bay Area comes after a trough in 2023. By year-end 2024, total apartment sales in San Francisco were up ~45% year-over-year, and the Bay Area broadly was approaching pre-COVID transaction levels as buyers anticipated eventual interest rate cuts. Nationally, apartment sales volume in 2024 climbed ~22% from 2023 (to $146B) and cap rates averaged ~5.6%, the highest in 8 years – trends that are evident locally as well. In short, multifamily real estate proved its resilience: even with higher borrowing costs, demand for rental housing kept this sector active. Buyers and sellers found equilibrium by adjusting pricing (as seen in the ~15% drop in average price/unit versus the 5-year average), and many investors pivoted strategies toward affordability or value-add plays to make the numbers work. Going forward, as the Bay Area economy continues adding jobs (notably with a budding AI boom offsetting some 2023 tech layoffs), the outlook for apartments appears cautiously optimistic– with strong rental demand but also an eye on interest rate movements that will influence values.

Office Properties

If apartments were the most active, office buildings were perhaps the most dichotomous segment of the Bay Area market this past year. On one hand, office property sales accounted for 67 transactions totaling about $4.5 billion, making it the second-largest category by volume (roughly 30% of all sales value). On the other hand, this volume was heavily skewed by a single extraordinary owner-user purchase, while many other office trades occurred at distressed pricing amid soaring vacancies. Downtown San Francisco’s office market remains historically weak – the overall vacancy rate hit 34.8% in Q2 2025 (up from 33.5% a year prior) – and the East Bay and Silicon Valley office markets also face high vacancy and cautious tenant demand due to remote/hybrid work trends. This challenged environment led to steep value declines for many office assets, and some sales reflect opportunistic or redevelopment-driven plays rather than growth optimism. Yet, the Bay Area also saw a record-breaking office sale that defies the broader gloom, illustrating the unique nature of certain transactions.

The most expensive single transaction in any category was the sale of Kaiser Center (300 Lakeside Drive) in Oakland, a marquee 28-story office tower complex which sold in June 2025 for approximately $900 million. The buyer was Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), the local utility, which had relocated its headquarters from San Francisco to Oakland and decided to purchase its rented HQ tower. This owner-occupant acquisition, effectively a corporate real estate move, set a record price near $1,000 per square foot – far above prevailing market valuations. At roughly 983,000 sq ft, 300 Lakeside’s allocated price (~$806M for the office portion plus $99M for an adjoining retail/garage parcel) translates to an eye-popping price tag in a soft office market. PG&E justified the buy as a long-term cost-saving measure for its ratepayers, locking in a home base. While not a market-rate investor purchase, this deal nonetheless provided a bright spot: it demonstrated that well-located, high-quality office assets with committed end-users can command strong pricing even now. The deal’s nearly $900M value is the largest Bay Area office sale in many years and underscores that certain “trophy” or mission-critical properties are outliers in an otherwise struggling sector.

Outside of PG&E’s splashy buy, however, most office trades were subdued. In San Francisco and Oakland, a number of office buildings traded at distressed prices as landlords facing vacancies and debt pressures looked to exit. A dramatic example: in September 2024, Kaiser Permanente sold its mostly vacant 21-story tower at 1950 Franklin St. in Oakland (and an attached garage) for just $14.35 million, or roughly $20 per square foot. This astoundingly low price – in a building once valued at over $200/sf pre-pandemic – epitomizes the devaluation of outdated offices in a high-vacancy, high-interest-rate environment. Observers noted that even distressed loan sales for occupied offices in Oakland were achieving higher pricing (e.g. $105/sf for a 72% leased tower nearby), highlighting just how compromised some downtown office assets have become. Similar stories have played out in San Francisco’s Financial District, where iconic addresses have seen their values slashed or loans go into default. Our dataset’s cutoff (≥$15M) means many of the lowest-priced office trades (like the Kaiser Franklin sale) aren’t even captured, but the trend of heavily discounted office sales is clear.

Within the office category, aside from PG&E’s deal, the next-largest sales were generally suburban office campuses and R&D facilities that found buyers looking for either conversion opportunities or long-term intrinsic value. For instance, in September 2024 a Silicon Valley investor acquired the Microsoft Silicon Valley Campus in Mountain View for $190 million (this likely involved multiple buildings formerly occupied by Microsoft, possibly for partial redevelopment or lease to new tech tenants). In Sunnyvale, two large office/R&D buildings (simply labeled “Building A”and “Building B”) sold in June 2025 for $177.0M and $173.0M respectively – these were part of a tech campus transaction, illustrating that well-leased modern office/R&D assets in prime Silicon Valley locations can still trade, albeit at adjusted pricing. Notably absent are big downtown San Francisco office tower sales in this data – a telling sign that buyers and sellers remain far apart on value for those assets, and many owners are holding or defaulting rather than transacting at steep losses. Instead, the action has shifted to life science conversions and other alternative uses for obsolete offices (discussed more in the Flex/Life Science section) and to select suburban office investments where occupancy is healthier (for example, small medical office buildings or single-tenant office assets in Palo Alto and San Jose did trade, often at moderate cap rates).

Market context: The Bay Area office investment market in 2024–2025 was bifurcated. Total dollar volume was significant due to the PG&E deal, but volume of market-driven office trades was low by historical standards. Many institutional investors retrenched from office acquisitions given uncertainty in future occupancy and difficulties securing financing. Those who did buy offices often did so at bargain prices or with a conversion thesis (e.g. converting offices to lab use, residential, or other). A salient example is Sutter Health’s purchase of a major Emeryville office/life-science campus (described later) to repurpose into a hospital. This trend of conversion is one way out for functionally obsolete office parks. On the positive side, certain niche office segments like medical office remained relatively resilient, and the San Jose/Silicon Valley office market showed signs of a turning point by mid-2025 as some tech firms began bringing workers back and leasing activity ticked up (especially for AI and hardware-related companies). Even so, investors are under no illusions – office valuations have reset sharply downward. Going forward, we expect office transaction activity to center on either distressed sales (as lenders force refi or sale of underperforming assets) or special scenario buys (owner-users like PG&E, or conversions like Sutter Health’s project). Until fundamental metrics (vacancy, rental rates) improve markedly or debt becomes cheaper, the office sector will likely remain the problem child of Bay Area real estate.

Industrial & Logistics Properties

The industrial real estate sector – encompassing warehouses, distribution centers, manufacturing facilities, and logistics assets – continued to perform relatively well, though it too saw a slight cooling from the frenzied pace of 2021–22. In the past year, 34 industrial property sales totaling about $1.52 billion were recorded in the Bay Area region. These deals ranged from large modern distribution centers in the Central Valley fringe, to smaller infill warehouses in core Bay counties, to even a few specialized industrial facilities. Industrial volume represented roughly 10% of total sales, making it a smaller share compared to multifamily or office, but it’s a sector that remains in favor among many investors due to e-commerce and supply-chain demand drivers. Western U.S. markets have led the nation in industrial pricing, and the Bay Area in particular topped the charts with industrial sale prices averaging about $518 per square foot – the highest in the country. This remarkable figure (well above the national average industrial price around $135/sf) reflects the Bay Area’s inventory of highly specialized R&D facilities and scarce warehouse space in urban areas. Even as national industrial vacancy ticked up to ~6.4% by late 2024 with new supply coming online, demand for quality logistics properties in Northern California remained solid.

Top industrial transactions over the past year illustrate two parallel trends: investment in big-box distribution hubs on the periphery, and premium prices for specialized infill assets. The largest industrial sale was in May 2025, when an institutional buyer acquired a 1 million+ sq. ft. Wayfair Distribution Center in Lathrop for $145.2 million. Lathrop (in San Joaquin County) is part of the emerging Central Valley logistics corridor that serves the greater Bay Area; the sale of this relatively new facility, presumably leased long-term to Wayfair (an e-commerce retailer), underscores that last-mile and regional distribution warehouses remain in high demand. In a similar vein, in late 2024 a pair of big warehouses in American Canyon (Napa County) – Building 4 and Building 1 at Napa Logistics Park – sold together for around $202 million (approximately $105M and $97M each). These buildings, totaling nearly 1 million sq. ft., are located in the Bay Area’s northern logistics cluster that serves both wine country and the broader region. Meanwhile, in June 2025, a portfolio of four industrial buildings in Manteca (CenterPoint Intermodal Center) traded for roughly $360 million in total – with individual buildings (e.g., Bldg 1 at $106.5M and Bldg 7 at $94.5M) indicating strong valuation for rail-served and freeway-adjacent distribution facilities in that San Joaquin submarket. These transactions reflect that capital is available for modern, large-scale industrial assets with credit tenants, even if located an hour or more outside San Francisco/Oakland. Investors like logistics REITs and private equity continue to view the Northern California distribution corridor (Tracy–Lathrop–Manteca up to Sacramento and down to the East Bay) as a growth area, thanks to the persistent rise of e-commerce and the need for updated supply chain infrastructure.

At the same time, urban industrial and specialized facilities fetched very high prices per square foot. For example, an older Jelly Belly Candy Company factory in Fairfield (Solano County) sold for $32.35M in October 2024 – not a huge absolute price, but notable as a food processing plant trading amid consolidation in that sector. And in South San Francisco (long a biotech/industrial hub), a small chemical/oil refinery site sold for $25M (likely a land play for redevelopment). We even saw one marina sale – the Safe Harbor Marina Village in Alameda, a marine industrial asset which sold for $27.4M – indicating that niche waterfront industrial uses are also part of the mix. Price per square foot on many of these infill deals can be extremely high: indeed, Bay Area industrial comps ranged from as low as ~$70/sf for giant warehouses in the Central Valley, to well above $500/sf for small parcels in the urban core. One data point in our set shows an industrial property trading for over $2,000/sf – likely a tiny site or a critical infrastructure facility. In general, well-located Bay Area warehouses and R&D spaces continued to command a premium, thanks to scarce land and proximity to end consumers. As one industry report noted, “Western markets lead in industrial sales prices, with the Bay Area tops at $518 per square foot”, far above other regions like Los Angeles or the Inland Empire.

Market context: The industrial sector nationally cooled slightly in 2024 after record-low vacancies in 2021–22, due to a wave of new supply and some normalization of e-commerce growth. Locally, we saw vacancy creep up in certain submarkets (some newly delivered logistics projects are leasing a bit slower). Rising interest rates also made investors more cautious, and development starts slowed (with 2025 expected to see a 10-year low in new industrial completionsas higher financing costs bite). However, demand drivers remain fundamentally strong – Amazon and others resumed warehouse expansions in 2024, and many companies are reconfiguring supply chains for resilience, which often means more warehouse space (to hold inventory) rather than just-in-time minimalism. The Bay Area, with its affluent population and tech economy, continues to generate needs for logistics (from delivering consumer goods to housing data center equipment). Thus, investors are still pursuing industrial opportunities, focusing on long-term potential. The sales we observed suggest that buyers targeted either stabilized core assets (long leases to solid tenants) or sites with redevelopment angles (for example, older industrial sites that could be converted to labs or mixed-use in the future). Looking ahead, industrial real estate in the Bay Area is expected to remain one of the steadiest sectors, with rent growth moderating but still positive, and investor interest high relative to other property types. As evidence of this relative strength: even with cap rates rising, industrial cap rates (often mid-5% to low-6% range) are still among the lowest of major property sectors, reflecting a view that industrial assets carry lower risk and strong long-term demand.

R&D and Flex Space (Life Science & Tech Flex)

The Bay Area has a significant inventory of R&D, lab, and “flex” properties, which straddle the line between office and industrial. These single-story or low-rise buildings often house life science laboratories, biotech manufacturing, tech hardware development, or other research-oriented uses. In our data, 30 transactions totaling around $1.06 billion were classified as Flex properties. Many of these are concentrated in places like South San Francisco, Emeryville, Fremont, and Palo Alto – hotspots for biotech and tech R&D. The market dynamics for this sub-sector have been quite interesting: a few years ago, life science real estate was white-hot with record rents and low vacancy; by late 2024, however, a combination of biotech funding pullbacks and a surge of new lab construction led to rising vacancies in the life science space. For instance, lab vacancy in Emeryville hit 39% in Q3 2024 – the highest of any East Bay city – and the broader East Bay lab vacancy averaged 14.1%, up sharply from just a couple years prior. Despite this cooling, investors executed some very large trades of R&D campuses, betting on the long-term value of well-located innovation space and, in some cases, planning to convert R&D sites to other uses (like medical facilities).

The most significant flex/life science transaction of the year was the sale of the Emery Yards life science campus in Emeryville to Sutter Health. In February 2025, Sutter (a major healthcare provider) purchased the 12-acre campus – including two large Class A lab buildings and land – from BioMed Realty (Blackstone) for a total of $450 million. Within that, CoStar records show Sutter paid $170 million for the building at 5555 Hollis Street and $156 million for the building at 5300 Chiron Way, both of which were state-of-the-art life science facilities developed by BioMed in recent years. Sutter also acquired a 2,000-space parking garage and additional vacant parcels as part of the assemblage. This bold move by Sutter is not a traditional life science investment play – instead, Sutter plans to redevelop the site into a 1.3 million sq. ft. medical campus, including a new hospital and outpatient center, representing a $1 billion investment in Emeryvillet. Essentially, a healthcare end-user stepped in to repurpose a faltering life science campus (which had seen tenants like Zymergen go bust) into a long-term hospital use. The deal price works out to roughly $615 per sq. ft. for existing buildings, which is actually a strong valuation given the lab vacancy at the time. In context, BioMed Realty likely decided to “cash out” of this project rather than wait for a leasing rebound, and Sutter seized the opportunity to lock down a large site for its expansion plans. This transaction highlights both the distress and opportunity in the life science real estate segment: even as many lab buildings sit partially empty now, the underlying real estate in locations like Emeryville is still highly valuable and can attract new uses.

Another large flex/R&D sale was Cupertino Gateway on North Tantau Avenue in Cupertino, which sold in June 2025 for $121.25M. This property – adjacent to Apple’s campus – consists of multiple tech R&D buildings and was likely an expansion or relocation target for tech companies (possibly even Apple itself). Its sale indicates that well-leased Silicon Valley R&D parks remain attractive. In Belmont, a portion of Oracle’s former HQ campus (at 300-350 Harbor Blvd) traded as part of a portfolio for about $40.4M, reflecting the ongoing parcel-by-parcel sell-off of older tech office/flex campuses on the Peninsula. Additionally, Santa Clara saw a couple of data center/telecom facility sales (e.g., a building on Raymond St. for $37.2M, a telco hotel on Lafayette for $84.8M) as the data center market remains robust in Silicon Valley – these properties, while technically “office/flex,” have very specialized infrastructure and tend to trade based on power capacity and fiber connectivity.

Investor interest in self-storage also intersects with the flex/specialty arena: for instance, AllStore Center in South San Francisco (a self-storage facility in an industrial zone) sold for $30.25M, and Shadelands Self Storage in Walnut Creek sold for $47.0M. Self-storage, although categorized under “Specialty” in our data, often involves flex-industrial style buildings and is considered a favored asset class in times of uncertainty (due to its stable cash flow). The high prices for these (over $300/sf in some cases) show strong competition in that niche.

Market context: The Bay Area’s R&D and life science property market in 2024–25 was in a state of flux. After a boom driven by biotech IPOs and COVID-19 research, funding for life science firms pulled back (venture capital and NIH funding declines) and new lab developments delivered vacant space, pushing vacancies up. Rents for lab space softenedin submarkets like South San Francisco, Emeryville, and Fremont. This cooled investor appetite somewhat – many speculated that cap rates for lab assets would rise from the 4-5% range to 6%+ given the risk of holding empty buildings. Indeed, the huge Emeryville sale to Sutter can be seen as a solution for a would-be troubled asset, repurposing it entirely. However, the long-term outlook for life science real estate in the Bay Area remains positive, given the region’s unmatched ecosystem of biotech companies, top-tier universities, and medical institutions. We may simply be in a period of consolidation; when leasing picks back up (perhaps as smaller biotechs merge or as pharma firms do more in-house R&D), these labs will fill again. Investors aware of this cycle may find good opportunities now. The data center segment, meanwhile, is relatively strong – with the rise of AI and cloud computing, demand for data center space (and by extension, power-laden telecom buildings) is surging. Silicon Valley’s power constraints make existing data center properties extremely valuable.

In summary, flex/R&D sales in the Bay Area illustrate strategic plays: some buyers repositioning assets to alternate uses (healthcare, data center), others doubling down on locations near tech giants (Cupertino, etc.), and specialists acquiring self-storage or other stable uses. The life science real estate correction bears watching; it’s one of the few segments where supply got a bit ahead of demand locally. Yet, the Bay Area’s fundamental innovation economy suggests that these R&D spaces will remain crucial in the long run, be it for biotech, semiconductor research, or other high-tech development. Investors with a tolerance for near-term vacancy are likely to be quietly accumulating these assets at a discount now, much like how office investors did in the 1990s before the dot-com boom. As of 2025, though, the headline story was Sutter Health’s conversion – a creative reuse solution that may become more common if traditional demand doesn’t recover quickly.

Retail Properties

The retail real estate sector in the Bay Area had a mixed but generally resilient year. Our dataset shows 26 retail property sales totaling about $888 million in value (roughly 6% of total volume). These deals span a variety of retail formats: large open-air shopping centers, strip malls, urban storefront buildings, auto dealerships (classified under retail in CoStar), and even a few regional malls. The retail sector, hammered in 2020 by pandemic shutdowns, has since stabilized as consumers returned to stores and dining. However, performance varies widely by retail subtype. High-quality grocery-anchored shopping centers and well-located power centers have fared well and attracted investor interest. In contrast, outdated indoor malls and single-tenant big boxes can still be challenging unless priced attractively for redevelopment. The Bay Area’s strong demographics (high incomes and dense population in many areas) generally support retail, but e-commerce remains a headwind for some categories. The sales from the past year reflect these dynamics – we see investors eagerly snapping up top-tier centers, while struggling mall properties trade at steep discounts.

The largest retail transaction was the sale of the former Fry’s Electronics site in Sunnyvale for $100 million (Oct 2024). Fry’s Electronics was a now-defunct big-box electronics retailer; its Sunnyvale store (a huge freestanding building on 15+ acres) was acquired by a developer or investor likely eyeing redevelopment of the site. At $100M, this deal wasn’t about retail cash flow (Fry’s was closed) but rather the land value and future potential – possibly for housing or a mixed-use project in a prime Silicon Valley location. This highlights a theme: some retail real estate in the Bay Area is being repurposed, especially large underutilized sites.

By contrast, Bridgepointe Shopping Center in San Mateo, a thriving open-air regional shopping center, sold for a robust $127 million in late 2024. Bridgepointe is a 231,700 sq. ft. community center featuring tenants like Nordstrom Rack, Target (shadow anchor), and others, and it boasts 100% occupancy. The buyer, a JV of Cohen & Steers and Sterling Organization, paid a premium price reflecting investor confidence in well-positioned, grocery- and big-box-anchored retail assets. According to the brokerage, Bridgepointe’s sale “underscores the continued investor appetite for high-quality retail in prime locations”. Indeed, with average household incomes near $200k in that trade area and virtually no vacancy, this center is a “trophy” retail asset – and it traded at roughly a mid-5% cap rate, demonstrating that top-tier retail can command strong pricing.

Another significant retail deal was The Plant Shopping Center in San Jose, which traded for $72.8M (December 2024). The Plant is a large power center (around 650,000 sq. ft.) with major anchors like Home Depot, Target (owned separately), and numerous shops/restaurants. A sale at this scale suggests confidence in retail in Silicon Valley’s dense neighborhoods. Likewise, the Marina Square Center in San Leandro sold for $56.8M (June 2025) – an open-air center likely anchored by discount retailers – showing investor interest extending to East Bay suburban markets for the right asset.

In the realm of neighborhood and community shopping centers, one interesting transaction was Washington Square Shopping Center in Petaluma, which effectively sold in two pieces: the shopping center (sans its grocery anchor) for $22.6M, and the Safeway supermarket parcel within it for $19.7M, both closing in Feb 2025. This kind of split sale (where an anchor grocery is owned or acquired separately, often by a net-lease investor or REIT, while the strip center is owned by another party) is not uncommon. It reflects how grocery-anchored centers are highly valued – the Safeway piece likely traded at a very low cap rate given its bond-like long-term lease, while the rest of the center was priced on its multi-tenant income. Combined, the whole center’s value was ~$42M, underpinning the strength of grocery-anchored retail (grocery being largely e-commerce-resistant).

Turning to auto-oriented retail, our data shows at least three auto dealership properties sold: a Hertz Car Rental facility in South San Francisco for $49.0M (July 2025), a Subaru dealership in Hayward for $38.2M (June 2025), and another dealership property in San Jose for $18.5M. Automotive retail sites often have large parcels and can be covered land plays for future redevelopment, but they also can be attractive income assets if leased to strong operator tenants. The high price for the Hertz site (nearly $50M) suggests it might include substantial land near SFO airport or be part of an airport parking operation – again, potentially as a strategic real estate hold for future redevelopment (or continued rental to car rental companies).

At the other end of the retail spectrum, regional malls in secondary markets have seen steep valuation declines, as exemplified by Weberstown Mall in Stockton. This 800,000 sq. ft. enclosed mall (anchored by JCPenney, Dillard’s, etc.) was acquired by a private investment firm (Mershops) in mid-2025 for just $50.8 million – about $63 per sq. ft. for a property that likely was worth many times that in its prime. The sale was part of a wave of distressed mall trades; the seller was Washington Prime Group (a REIT that went through bankruptcy), and the buyer specializes in repositioning old malls. The low price reflects high vacancy and the need for significant reinvestment or re-tenanting. Mershops has been buying such malls across California and Nevada, planning to “blend retail, hospitality and community elements” in future redevelopments. The Weberstown example shows that while trophy retail is hot, ailing malls can barely find buyers. It’s noteworthy that the $50.8M was reportedly the entire mall (the data initially showed one parcel at $18M as part of a 7-parcel allocated sale, but public reports confirm $50M was the total price). This is still an extremely low number – essentially land value – and underscores the opportunity and challenge in the mall sector.

Market context: Bay Area retail real estate benefitted in 2024–25 from a rebounding consumer economy. Store sales and foot traffic improved as pandemic effects waned. Many retail landlords report stable occupancy, especially in centers offering experiential retail or daily needs (grocery, pharmacy). Rents have grown modestly for top locations. The investment market nationally for retail has bifurcated: essential retail (grocery-anchored centers, net-leased drugstores, etc.) is in high demand, whereas malls and certain apparel-anchored centers languish. Our local data mirrors that. On the high end, Bridgepointe’s sale at a low cap rate with 100% occupancy shows that investors perceive some retail centers almost like infrastructure – reliable cash flow assets in a world of omnichannel retail. On the low end, malls like Hilltop Mall (Richmond) or Sunvalley Mall (Concord) – though not in our dataset this year – are known to be struggling or being repurposed. The presence of an outlet center sale (we saw Marina Square listed as an outlet center) at $56M indicates even outlet malls can trade if they have good sales and perhaps redevelopment angles.

One rising retail trend is the integration of alternative uses into retail properties – for example, adding medical clinics, fitness, or even residential to shopping centers. The high values for large sites (like Fry’s Sunnyvale) suggest some former retail will become housing or mixed-use in the next cycle, which could be a positive outcome addressing the housing shortage. Additionally, single-tenant net lease retail (like the drug store in San Carlos that sold for $17M, or fast-food pads, etc.) remains a steady part of the market; such deals are often below our $15M cutoff, but they trade frequently to 1031 exchange buyers and REITs seeking stable yield.

Overall, the Bay Area retail investment market in the past year was characterized by confidence in necessity-based retail and prime locations and a continued reckoning for obsolete formats. Investors with expertise in retail operations are selectively expanding portfolios, while generalist investors tend to be cautious unless the asset is clearly top-tier. With consumer spending holding up (despite inflation) and virtually no new retail development (limiting supply growth), well-located retail in the Bay Area should continue to perform. We expect the bifurcation to persist: A malls and prime centers will hold value or appreciate, while B/C malls will likely trade at land value for creative reuse. The sales from 2024–25 already portend that future: from Bridgepointe to Weberstown, the divergence is striking.

Land and Development Sites

Land transactions tell a compelling story about future development expectations. In the Bay Area, developable land is scarce and often highly priced, but the market for land can cool when developers face headwinds like expensive financing or construction cost inflation. Over the past year, 26 significant land sales (categorized as “Land” in our data) took place, totaling approximately $1.09 billion. These ranged from large suburban greenfield sites for housing, to urban infill parcels for mixed-use, to pieces of campuses being sold off. Notably, a few extremely large land deals signal where big projects may be on the horizon – or at least where land changed hands for strategic reasons despite the challenging development climate of late.

The largest recorded land sale (though still under contract as of the data) is a 114-acre mixed-use site in North San Jose listed at $125.0M. This site’s sheer size (114 acres) suggests it could be a former tech campus or an assembly of parcels intended for a major redevelopment. One possibility is the legacy land owned by Cisco or another tech firm in North San Jose’s Alviso area that might be repurposed for housing or mixed employment use; however, since it was under contract (not closed yet), details are scant. If it closes near that price, it will set a benchmark for large-scale land value in Silicon Valley (around $1.1M per acre, relatively modest, possibly reflecting infrastructure needs or affordable housing requirements on the site).

In San Bruno (northern San Mateo County), a notable transaction was the sale of the former Crestmoor High School site, a 40-acre parcel, to a residential developer (SummerHill Homes). This deal actually happened in two pieces: one recorded at $99.1M and another at $86.55M, both on Feb 6, 2025 – likely corresponding to different tracts or an allocation of the single purchase. According to local news, the 40-acre Crestmoor parcel ultimately sold for $86.55 millions after nearly a decade of negotiations. The plan is to build 155 single-family homes on the site (with 24 below-market units), effectively creating a new residential community in built-out San Bruno. This sale is significant for a few reasons: it provides much-needed housing (155 homes in San Mateo County is notable), and it shows that public agencies (the high school district) are monetizing surplus land for development. The price, roughly $2.16M per acre, is a strong number for raw land but also reflects the realities of entitlement in the Bay Area (the buyer obtained approvals over years, reducing some risk). It’s interesting that CoStar showed a $185M combined value (perhaps an initial listing or an error), but the actual price reported was $86M – indicating either CoStar double-counted parcels or one figure was an asking price. In any case, the Crestmoor sale at $86M is a landmark for Peninsula land deals and paves the way for a large infill subdivision.

Another major land trade was in Tracy (San Joaquin County): a 47.7-acre residentially zoned land parcel sold for $82.78M (Oct 2024). Tracy lies just beyond the traditional Bay Area, but it’s part of the broader commuter belt, and this price (~$1.74M per acre) signals that homebuilders are willing to pay a premium for entitled land even out in exurban locations. Likely, a big single-family home developer or a consortium bought this to build new subdivisions, anticipating the perpetual eastward expansion of Bay Area housing demand. We’ve seen this movie before – in past cycles, builders like Lennar and D.R. Horton grabbed land in places like Mountain House, Tracy, and further out when core areas became too pricey to build profitably. The Tracy sale suggests that dynamic is ongoing: as the Bay Area proper remains supply-constrained and expensive, development capital chases cheaper land on the periphery.

Within the urban Bay Area, some land sales indicate future high-density projects. For example, a site listed as “SummerHill Townhomes Project” in San Jose (7.28 acres) sold for $73.63M (Jan 2025). SummerHill is a developer, so presumably this was an entitled townhome project or apartment development that traded – possibly SummerHill themselves acquiring land for a project. At around $10M per acre, this reflects a location suitable for fairly dense housing (likely hundreds of units). In San Jose, other land deals include various smaller redevelopment parcels likely for mixed-use or multifamily.

One particularly interesting land transaction relates to the Emeryville case discussed earlier: Sutter Health’s campus purchase included vacant land parcels at 4563 Horton St. (for $90M) and 1400 53rd St. (for $18M). The $90M piece was actually categorized in our data under Specialty (as a parking garage, though it might have been land with a garage structure) and the $18M piece was below our cutoff. Combined, that’s $108M for roughly ~8 acres of land (the two lots) – intended for the new hospital build. This underscores how even land needed for institutional uses carries hefty price tags in the Bay Area. Hospitals, schools, etc., must compete with private developers for sites, and in this case Sutter paid top dollar to secure future expansion land.

Market context: The land market in the Bay Area is often the first to slow when development becomes more difficult. In 2023–2024, developers faced significantly higher interest rates on construction loans, high construction costs (labor and materials), and in some cases, softening end-unit prices (e.g., condo values dipped in SF, and office rents fell, making office development unfeasible). These factors generally cool land speculation. Indeed, some developers put projects on pause, and land listings sat longer. However, the data shows when a site has a clear path and a strong use (especially housing), it still trades – and often at strong prices. The Crestmoor High School deal is a prime example: despite interest rate concerns, a builder still closed on an $86M land deal because housing in San Mateo County has a deep pool of demand and the project was ready to go. Similarly, the Tracy deal indicates builders are looking past the current moment to the next few years, securing lots for when perhaps rates come down and buyer demand roars back.

One trend is that entities like schools, public agencies, and corporations divested land: e.g., school district selling Crestmoor; Kaiser Permanente selling excess land/buildings; tech companies like Novartis/Bayer selling campuses to unlock value. This adds supply of land or semi-land (like old campuses) to the market. Developers who are well-capitalized took advantage. We saw large tracts like the 80-acre San Bruno site and 114-acre San Jose site involving likely corporate or institutional sellers.

Another observation: Land banking by investors for future rezoning or appreciation is a strategy typically in boom times. In the current climate, most land buys have a near-term plan (like specific homes or a hospital). Pure speculative land buys are fewer. Lenders also lend sparingly on land (often requiring cash or low leverage). Thus, many land deals were cash-rich buyers or JV partnerships planning to entitle now and perhaps develop when conditions improve.

In summary, land sales in the Bay Area over the last year highlight a cautious yet opportunistic development market. Housing land is hot wherever entitlement is secured, as the region’s housing shortage guarantees long-term demand (witness SummerHill’s moves). Commercial development land is more hit-or-miss; few office or retail developers are buying raw land now, but alternative players (life science, medical, data centers) are stepping in for specialized needs. Should interest rates decline in late 2025 or 2026, we can expect many of these land parcels to quickly translate into construction projects, given pent-up demand. For now, land investors are playing the long game, tying up prime sites even in an elevated rate environment – a sign of confidence in the Bay Area’s future growth.

Hospitality (Hotels)

The hospitality sector – hotels and lodging properties – saw limited but notable activity as it continued its recovery from the pandemic slump. Only 3 significant hotel sales appear in our data (totaling about $130.7M, <1% of volume), but one of them was a high-profile San Francisco transaction. Hotel performance in the Bay Area improved markedly in 2023–24 with the return of tourists and conventions (San Francisco’s revenue per available room was climbing, although not yet at 2019 levels), but investors remained cautious and selective. Financing for hotels can be tricky in high-rate environments, and some owners held off on selling until performance fully rebounds. The deals that did occur highlight a trend of trading at adjusted pricing, with a focus on well-located assets that align with evolving demand (e.g. leisure-focused or extended stay hotels).

The marquee hotel sale was Park Hotels & Resorts’ disposal of the Hyatt Centric Fisherman’s Wharf San Francisco for $80 million (closed May 2025). This 316-room hotel in the popular Fisherman’s Wharf tourist district fetched about $253,000 per key. While $80M is a fraction of what trophy SF hotels sold for pre-pandemic (luxury hotels used to trade for $500k to $1M+ per key in the city), this sale was considered a reasonable outcome given the circumstances. Park Hotels (a large REIT) was looking to offload “non-core” assets and exit San Francisco; the buyer, reportedly EOS Investors (a New York investment firm), is betting on the long-term strength of SF tourism. The sale price equated to roughly a 64× multiple on the hotel’s 2024 EBITDA – a high multiple reflecting depressed current earnings, but the buyer likely underwrote a strong recovery in the coming years. Industry observers noted that deals like this can set benchmark pricing – at $253k/room, it signals where investors see value in a full-service San Francisco hotel in a prime leisure location (the Wharf). This is significantly below replacement cost, and EOS likely views it as a long-term hold until SF fully bounces back. The sale also indicates that despite sensational headlines of SF’s struggles, there are investors willing to re-enter the market at the right price.

Elsewhere, two mid-market hotels changed hands: an Extended Stay America in Oakland/Emeryville sold for $33.0M(Apr 2025) and a Four Points by Sheraton in South San Francisco sold for $17.7M (Oct 2024). The Extended Stay (149 rooms) went for about $221k/key, reflecting the robust performance of extended-stay hotels which cater to longer-term corporate and budget travelers – a segment that held up well during the pandemic and continues to be attractive. The Four Points (101 rooms, at $175k/key) is an airport-oriented select-service hotel; its sale around $18M likely indicates a repositioning or a smaller local buyer, as SFO airport hotel demand recovered strongly in 2023/24.

It’s worth noting that overall hotel sales volume in California was down in 2024 compared to prior years. High interest rates deterred some deals, and some owners are waiting for better operating numbers to justify their asking prices. However, the sales that did occur often involved REITs or institutional sellers pruning portfolios (like Park Hotels) and opportunistic private buyers stepping in. Many distressed hotel situations from 2020 have already traded or resolved, so recent trades are more strategic. For example, the Hyatt Centric sale by Park was part of a broader plan after Park defaulted on a loan on its big SF Hilton earlier – they chose to sell the Hyatt proactively to raise cash. The buyer’s willingness to pay 64× EBITDA suggests a belief that EBITDA was temporarily low and will grow – a bet on SF’s comeback as a destination.

Market context: The Bay Area hotel market split between urban core and suburban/leisure. San Francisco’s large convention hotels are still in recovery mode (occupancy and rates improving but not fully back, and negative press about downtown safety has weighed on leisure tourism). Meanwhile, suburban and secondary market hotels (Marin County resorts, Sonoma/Napa hotels, Silicon Valley business hotels) have performed better and even set record revenues in some cases in 2023. This likely explains why we didn’t see many SF downtown hotel trades – owners are holding out for better pricing once metrics improve. The Fisherman’s Wharf hotel was more leisure-oriented and thus easier to value.

Going forward, hotel investors are eyeing the trajectory of international tourism (which is set to return more in late 2025) and the recovery of business travel. If interest rates stabilize or drop, hotel deal volume could pick up because hospitality is one of the few sectors where cap rates/yields are higher (to compensate for operating risk), so they may become relatively more attractive. Additionally, some hotel properties are being considered for conversion to housing (there was talk of converting some SF hotels to residential under state programs). None of the sales in our list were explicit conversions, but if any owners can’t find buyers at acceptable prices, that path might emerge (especially for older office-like hotels).

In summary, the Bay Area hotel sales in the past year were few but telling: a big REIT exit at a market-clearing price, and smaller trades of stable, midscale hotels. The professional, analytical take is that hospitality real estate is in a price discovery phase – values are below pre-pandemic peak, but not as deeply distressed as some feared, thanks to the travel rebound. The Fisherman’s Wharf deal provides a data point for future underwriting (midscale SF hotel ~$250k/key in 2025), and it may encourage other owners to transact if they see that as a reference. For now, though, many hotel owners in the Bay Area are likely holding on, confident that brighter days (and higher valuations) lie ahead as tourism and corporate travel normalize.

Specialty & Other Niche Properties

Beyond the major property types, the Bay Area saw a variety of specialty real estate transactions. These “specialty” deals – 15 transactions totaling about $463 million – included asset types like self-storage facilities, auto dealerships (mentioned in retail), marinas, wineries, and senior care facilities. Investors in these niches are often specialized operators or REITs focusing on a particular segment. While small in number, these sales add color to the market, highlighting unique opportunities that arose in the past year.

Some of the largest specialty deals were in self-storage, a perennially popular niche due to stable demand. As noted, Shadelands Self Storage in Walnut Creek sold for $47.0M, and two other storage facilities in Newark ($41.0M) and South San Francisco ($30.25M) sold as well. Self-storage cap rates remained relatively low (often 5-6%), and values high, thanks to strong occupancy and recession-resistant income. The Walnut Creek facility, at $47M, likely reflects a multi-story modern storage property in a high-income area, a prized asset for storage REITs or private equity buyers. These trades show that while not headline-grabbing, self-storage was an active investment class, even outpacing some traditional sectors like hotels or healthcare in volume.

The region’s unique geography and economy also led to sales of winery and vineyard properties. Three wineries changed hands: Viansa Winery in Sonoma sold for $45.49M (Oct 2024), Concannon Vineyard in Livermore sold for $17.9M (Nov 2024), and Acacia Vineyard in Napa went into contract for $17.5M. The Viansa sale (at $45M) is significant – Sonoma/Napa winery properties often trade not just on real estate value but also brand value and business income. It indicates continued consolidation or investment in Wine Country assets, perhaps by larger wine companies or hospitality investors. Wineries are categorized as specialty real estate because they blend agricultural, industrial, and hospitality uses. The sales suggest that despite recent wildfires and climate concerns, wine country real estate remains attractive, with buyers betting on the enduring appeal of California wines and tasting room tourism.

Another one-of-a-kind deal was the sale of Safe Harbor Marina Village in Alameda for $27.44M. This marina sale (with Safe Harbor being a large marina operator) reflects the value of maritime real estate in the Bay. Marinas generate income from boat slip rentals and related services and are often held by specialized firms. $27M for a marina indicates a sizable facility; Alameda’s Marina Village has hundreds of slips and is part of a larger mixed-use area, so this sale might also have development angles (e.g., upgrading facilities or adding dry storage). It’s an example of a niche asset that rarely trades but did this year, showing that investor interest extends even to recreational real estate.

Automotive properties were partly covered earlier (Hertz, Subaru deals). These fall under retail in classification but are essentially specialty single-tenant assets. The high prices for those indicate the land and income values for car-related sites.

In the healthcare real estate subcategory, two sales occurred: Atherton Healthcare Center in Menlo Park (Skilled Nursing Facility) sold for $37.5M (Mar 2025), and TreVista Concord (an Assisted Living facility) sold for $20.6M(Feb 2025). Skilled nursing and assisted living facilities often trade based on their operational business, not just real estate, and cap rates can be higher due to operational intensity. The Atherton Healthcare SNF, at $37.5M, suggests a large facility (perhaps ~50-100 beds) in an affluent area; its sale could signal either a change in operator or an acquisition by a healthcare REIT focusing on senior housing. With an aging population, senior care properties continue to attract investment, though investors are cautious given regulatory and staffing challenges in that sector.

Lastly, under the “other” category, there was one significant Sports & Entertainment property noted: a site in Oakland under contract for $125M. While details are scant in the data (no name given, just Oakland and “Under Contract”), speculation is that this could be related to the Oakland Coliseum complex or another major sports venue sale. The Coliseum (former home of the A’s and Raiders) has been eyed for redevelopment and had an investment group in contract during 2024. The $125M figure aligns with reported valuations for the city’s share of the Coliseum site. If indeed this is that deal, it means a large swath of sports/entertainment land is poised for future mixed-use development (housing, retail, etc.) once the teams fully vacate. It underscores how sports facilities in urban areas are often essentially land deals when teams depart, given the huge redevelopment potential. We will likely hear more as/if that contract closes – potentially turning an aging stadium site into a new urban hub.

Market context: Specialty real estate tends to be less affected by broad market cycles and more by sector-specific trends. Self-storage benefited from migration and housing changes (people moving or downsizing need storage). Wineries and marinas benefit from lifestyle and tourism trends (there was pent-up travel demand in 2022–2024 that helped wineries recover sales). Auto properties are in flux with electric vehicle shifts, but prime dealership locations still hold value (and can be repurposed if car sales go more online). Senior housing has long-term demand tailwinds (aging boomers) but short-term headwinds (COVID aftermath, staffing issues).

Investors in these niches often are specialists – e.g., Safe Harbor buys marinas globally, public storage REITs buy self-storages, healthcare REITs buy SNFs, etc. The Bay Area, with its high property values, sees somewhat fewer of these properties trade (because owners hold onto good assets), but when they do, prices are notable. The $90M parking garage in Emeryville and $18M adjacent lot (part of Sutter’s buys) could also be considered specialty – a reminder that sometimes even a parking structure can be a huge deal if it’s part of a bigger vision.

In essence, the specialty transactions of the past year highlight that no corner of the real estate market was entirely dormant. From boat marinas to vineyards to storage units, investors were hunting for yield and opportunity wherever it could be found. These assets often provide diversification benefits and can outperform in niche markets. For example, if office and retail are struggling, a self-storage or senior housing investment might provide steadier returns. Thus, we see active interest in those sectors. We anticipate that these specialty categories will continue to see incremental trading – not a lot of volume, but steady interest – in the Bay Area. The fundamentals (people need storage, seniors need care, Californians love wine and boating) aren’t going away. And given the Bay Area’s wealth, expect the region’s marinas, wineries, and specialty assets to remain in demand, albeit changing hands quietly and infrequently.

Conclusion and Outlook

Over the last year, the Bay Area real estate market exhibited a complex mosaic of activity. In aggregate, billions of dollars of properties changed hands across residential and commercial categories – a testament to the region’s enduring appeal to investors, even amid economic uncertainty. Multifamily residential proved to be the workhorse of the market, with numerous apartment deals (including some record-breaking sales) driven by strong renter demand and an investment thesis resilient to interest rate pressures. The office sector, by contrast, was highly bifurcated: one moment setting a pricing record with an owner-user mega-deal, the next seeing buildings trade for mere pennies on the dollar in distressed situations. Industrial and logistics properties remained a bright spot, continuing to command premium pricing thanks to e-commerce and supply chain needs, though investors became slightly more cautious with new supply coming online. Retail real estate showed a split personality – thriving in the case of prime open-air centers and faltering in the case of outdated malls – but generally demonstrated that brick-and-mortar retail is far from dead in the Bay Area, especially for experience and necessity-based formats. Development land sales indicated a selective but significant bet on the region’s future growth, with developers securing key sites for housing and mixed-use projects that will shape the Bay Area’s landscape in years to come. And in specialty niches – from self-storage to wineries – we saw that specialized demand will snap up the right assets, adding diversity to the transaction mix.

Several key themes and implications emerge from this analysis:

• Price Discovery and Adjusted Expectations: Across almost every sector, the past year was about buyers and sellers finding a new equilibrium on pricing in a higher-interest-rate environment. Cap rates rose (e.g., multifamily cap rates up ~150 bps from the 2020 lows; retail and industrial up somewhat as well), and consequently values on many assets fell from their peak. The transactions that happened were often those where the seller accepted the new pricing reality (such as Essex selling Hillsdale Garden Apartments to an affordable housing venture at a below-market-unit price, or Washington Prime selling a mall at $50M). Buyers, for their part, showed discipline but also opportunism – stepping in when they saw a compelling long-term play (as with Sutter Health’s bold campus buy, or investors paying top dollar for 100% leased centers). Moving forward, the market is likely to see more of this price discovery as interest rates remain relatively high. With the Federal Reserve signaling potential stabilization, there’s cautious optimism that transaction volume will increase once both sides feel prices have bottomed out.

• Flight to Quality and Unique Opportunities: A consistent pattern was investment capital concentrating on either top-tier assets or unique repositioning opportunities. Quality apartment assets in good locations drew multiple bidders and sold at strong prices. The best retail centers similarly found eager buyers. Industrial deals gravitated towards modern facilities with good logistics fundamentals. Conversely, lower-quality or functionally obsolete properties often had to find a new story (affordable conversion, life science conversion, etc.) or sell at a steep discount to attract interest. For example, empty offices only traded when priced for repurposing (e.g., Kaiser’s $14M sale) or when an end-user had a vision (Sutter’s plan to redevelop labs to a hospital). Implication: Investors will continue to be highly selective, and we can expect bifurcated markets within each property type – “haves” (quality, well-located, future-proof assets) and “have-nots” (assets requiring significant change or in weak locations). Lenders too are favoring quality, which reinforces this dynamic.

• Market Resilience and Transformation: The Bay Area market overall showed remarkable resilience. Despite tech industry layoffs, remote work challenges, and a slowed economy in 2023, real estate sales rebounded in many sectors by late 2024. The approximately $15 billion in property sales over the last 12 months is a strong figure by historical standards, even if inflated by a couple of unique large deals. What’s striking is how the market is actively transforming the use of certain properties to adapt to new realities. Offices to life science or medical, retail to mixed-use or fulfillment, older apartments to affordable housing – these transformations were evident in the transactional evidence. This speaks to the innovative, ever-evolving nature of Bay Area real estate. The region does not shy away from repurposing and reinvesting in its built environment. Such adaptability is a positive sign for long-term investors – it means the region can find ways to reinvent properties rather than leaving them stranded.

• Broader Economic Signals: Real estate transactions often serve as a barometer of broader economic confidence. The willingness of firms like PG&E and Sutter Health to invest nearly $1B in Oakland and $450M in Emeryville respectively signals confidence in the Bay Area’s future – these organizations are literally making multi-decade bets on location. Likewise, institutional investors buying large apartments or retail centers are effectively saying they believe in the sustained desirability and growth of Bay Area communities (even if near-term headwinds exist). That said, the dearth of private investment in downtown SF offices is an alarm bell about that sub-market’s current woes; it will take either substantial price correction or policy intervention to revive investor interest there. On the housing front, big land buys for subdivisions indicate expectations that housing demand will remain robust, which aligns with ongoing job growth and population stabilization in the region (after a dip in 2020–21, the Bay Area population trends have been steadying).

In conclusion, the Bay Area real estate market over the past year demonstrated both tenacity and transformation. Investors continued to trade billions in assets, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals (housing, logistics, necessity retail) and seizing special situations in weaker sectors (office, mall retail) when a clear plan existed. The market’s professional tone has been one of pragmatism – deals got done when numbers made sense, not on speculative froth. As we move forward, there are reasons for guarded optimism: interest rates may plateau or even decline in the coming year, which would alleviate some financing pressure; the tech industry is showing signs of renewed vigor (AI is a growth driver) which bodes well for office and housing demand; and the continued housing shortage will likely keep multifamily and residential land in demand. Key risks remain, of course – if rates stay higher for longer, some owners under stress could lead to more distressed sales, and the office glut will take years to absorb.

For stakeholders and observers, the key takeaway is that the Bay Area remains an attractive, if evolving, real estate market. Its fundamentals (a diverse, innovation-driven economy, limited land supply, affluent population) continue to support real estate values, even though the exact form of usage may change (e.g., offices to labs, malls to town centers). Investors are recalibrating, but not retreating. The past year’s sales activity, spanning everything from a winery in Sonoma to a high-rise in Oakland, underscores that there is ample capital ready to invest in Bay Area real estate when opportunities align with strategy. In the coming year, expect to see more segmentation – the strongest properties fetching intense interest and weaker ones being creatively repurposed or transacting at distressed levels. In other words, the trends observed in this report are likely to continue. By understanding these patterns and the context behind the transactions, market participants can better navigate the road ahead – whether that means negotiating harder on price, exploring alternative uses, or doubling down on favored asset classes. The Bay Area market is forging its post-pandemic identity, and as this year has shown, it is doing so through an intricate tapestry of deals that together signal both caution and confidence in the region’s real estate future.

August 20, 2025 by a collective of authors at MMCG Invest, LLC, San Francisco and Aay area feasibility study consultant

Sources: Sales data derived from MMCG Database (Aug 2024–Aug 2025). Market context and deal details from industry reports and news: e.g., Cushman & Wakefield MarketBeat; J.P. Morgan Chase outlook; Multi-Housing News/RealPage; CoStar News; SF Chronicle; CoStar/A Street Partners (industrial trends); Shopping Center Business/JLL (retail deals); The Real Deal (Emeryville life science sale); Yahoo Finance/HotelDive (Hyatt sale); and local press (Daily Journal, etc.)