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USDA B&I Feasibility Study Case Study: A 70-Room Limited-Service Hotel on US-19 at the New River Gorge Gateway in Fayetteville, West Virginia, Not Feasible as Proposed and Feasible as Restructured

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Principal of MMCG InvestMichal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA, Practicing Affiliate of the Appraisal InstitutePublished October 2, 2026

A 70-room upper midscale limited-service hotel proposed on a 4.61-acre commercial tract on Laurel Creek Road at the US-19 traffic light in Fayetteville, Fayette County, West Virginia, listed at $450,000 and marketed for retail, medical, restaurant or hotel use, at the gateway to New River Gorge National Park and Preserve, which recorded 1,958,440 recreation visits in 2025, a record and about 64 percent above 2019. The town's zoning ordinance permits a hotel by right in General Commercial and by conditional use in Mixed Use, and the parcel's district is a condition. At a $12,755,000 total project cost, $182,214 per room, and the program's 25 percent equity for construction guaranteed before completion, the hotel covers at 0.77x in Year 3 and 0.86x in Year 5, because a 64 percent annual occupancy built from an August peak near 90 percent and a January trough near 35 percent, at a $148 rate, produces about $685,000 of cash flow against $884,300 of debt service. Restructured at a $6,300,000 B&I loan, 49 percent of cost, with $6,455,000 of equity, the hotel covers at 1.02x in Year 2, 1.18x in Year 3, 1.25x in Year 4 and 1.31x in Year 5. Determination: not feasible as proposed; feasible as restructured, conditioned on the parcel's General Commercial zoning, the town's water and sewer capacity letter, a funded reserve, franchise approval and the lender carrying the park's monthly visitation curve as the occupancy curve.

Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | October 2, 2026

Study at a Glance

ItemFinding
Subject000 Laurel Creek Road, Fayetteville, WV 25840, Fayette County; 4.61 acres just off US-19 at the Laurel Creek Road traffic light; MLS 92949 (RE/MAX) and 25-576 (realestatewv.com)
Listing$450,000 asking ($97,614 per acre), active, no reductions shown; marketed for retail, medical offices, restaurant, hotel or light industrial use; zoning and utilities not shown
ZoningTown of Fayetteville Planning and Zoning Code: Hotel/Motel permitted by right in General Commercial (C-1, Section 1315.03(a), 50 foot height) and as a conditional use in Mixed Use (MU, Section 1313.03(b), 40 foot height); the parcel's district is a condition
Program70 rooms, four stories, interior corridor, about 38,000 gross square feet, indoor pool, fitness room, breakfast area, 80 parking spaces with trailer and raft-trailer spaces
Loan programUSDA Business and Industry guaranteed loan, new business, construction guaranteed before completion; 80 percent guarantee on a loan above $5,000,000; 3 percent upfront fee, 0.55 percent annual retention fee
Total Subject Project Cost$12,755,000 ($182,214 per room, $7,000 of it land)
Stabilized revenue (Year 4, 2032)$2,639,400 at 66 percent occupancy and a $152 rate
Debt service coverage (as proposed, 75 percent loan)0.55x Year 1, 0.67x Year 2, 0.77x Year 3, 0.83x Year 4, 0.86x Year 5
Debt service coverage (restructured, 49 percent loan)0.84x Year 1, 1.02x Year 2, 1.18x Year 3, 1.25x Year 4, 1.31x Year 5
Break-even occupancy (Year 4, restructured)33.1 percent before debt, 60.2 percent at 1.0x coverage, 66.0 percent at 1.25x
DeterminationNot feasible as proposed; feasible as restructured, conditioned on a zoning verification letter placing the parcel in C-1 or a conditional use permit in MU, the Town of Fayetteville's water and sewer capacity letter for 70 rooms, a $359,100 funded reserve, franchise approval and the lender's underwriting carrying the park's monthly visitation curve as the occupancy curve

Determination

MMCG concludes that the proposed 70-room limited-service hotel on Laurel Creek Road at US-19 in Fayetteville, West Virginia is not feasible as proposed and is feasible as restructured. The site and the demand are sound. The parcel is 4.61 acres at a signalized intersection on the four-lane highway that carries every visitor from the north and the south to the New River Gorge Bridge, the Canyon Rim Visitor Center and the town, at a land cost of $7,000 per room; the town's ordinance permits a hotel by right in its General Commercial district; and the park recorded 1,958,440 recreation visits in 2025, a record, up about 8 percent on 2024 and about 64 percent on 2019, with the county's traveler spending at about $172.9 million and the gateway's branded supply a single 106-room exterior-corridor economy hotel and the town's new 40-room boutique hotel at $225 a night. The proposal fails on the seasonality and the capital stack. A gateway hotel's occupancy follows the park's calendar, which runs above 200,000 visits a month from June through August and below 100,000 from November through March, and the study's monthly curve, from about 35 percent in January to about 90 percent in August, averages 64 percent at stabilization. At a $148 rate that occupancy produces about $685,000 of cash flow after reserve in Year 3 against $884,300 of debt service on a $9,566,000 loan at 75 percent of a $182,214 per room cost, a coverage of 0.77x that does not reach 1.0x within the projection.

Restructured at a $6,300,000 B&I loan, 49 percent of cost, with $6,455,000 of equity, the same hotel covers at 1.02x in Year 2, 1.18x in Year 3, 1.25x in Year 4 and 1.31x in Year 5, on 66 percent occupancy at a $152 rate in Year 4, inside the gateway's own evidence: the park's visitation, the national 2025 occupancy of 62.3 percent and rate of $160.54, and the town's boutique hotel at $225. The restructured credit is one a USDA reviewer can approve: the loan is sized to the year the coverage floor is first met, the reserve carries the first winter, and the equity carries the difference between what a $182,000 per room hotel costs to build in 2026 and what a $95 RevPAR gateway market can finance at 75 percent. The determination is conditioned on a zoning verification letter placing the parcel in General Commercial, or a conditional use permit if it lies in Mixed Use; on the Town of Fayetteville's water and sewer capacity letter for 70 rooms; on a $359,100 funded reserve; on franchise approval of the site; and on the lender's underwriting carrying the park's monthly visitation curve as the occupancy curve rather than an annual average.

Scope and Basis of This Model Study

This is an MMCG model study: a complete feasibility analysis performed on a real, publicly marketed parcel using public data, prepared to show USDA Business and Industry lenders, Rural Development state offices and gateway-market developers how MMCG tests a tourism-driven hotel against the destination's own calendar, the town's ordinance and the program before a franchise application is filed. It is not a client engagement. MMCG has no relationship with the landowner, the listing brokers, any franchisor, the Town of Fayetteville, the National Park Service or any prospective developer, and the analysis does not represent an offer, an appraisal or a recommendation to buy the parcel. Figures drawn from the listing, the Town of Fayetteville's zoning ordinance, the National Park Service's visitation statistics as republished, the New River Gorge Convention and Visitors Bureau's annual report to the legislature, the West Virginia Tax Division's levy and tax schedules, the Fayette County levy estimates and the competing hotels' own announcements are identified as such. Figures labeled MMCG assumption are underwriting inputs set by MMCG from industry benchmarks, including the 2026 national development cost survey, 2025 and first-half 2026 operating benchmarks and current B&I loan pricing. Items that could not be verified from a primary source at the study date are listed in the Conditions and Limitations section rather than estimated silently: in particular, the parcel's zoning district, the adopted and codified text of the ordinance, the town's water and sewer capacity, the current fiscal year's county and municipal levy rates, the park's 2025 monthly visitation, and the competing hotels' room counts, rates and assessor records from their own sites.

Project Business Plan

The Project will operate as a franchised upper midscale limited-service hotel of 70 rooms on the 4.61-acre tract on Laurel Creek Road at the US-19 signalized intersection in Fayetteville, Fayette County, West Virginia, at the gateway to New River Gorge National Park and Preserve, under a flag of the Hampton Inn, Holiday Inn Express or Fairfield Inn class following franchise approval. The physical program comprises a four-story interior-corridor building of about 38,000 gross square feet with 70 guest rooms, 56 of them standard king and double-queen rooms of about 320 square feet and 14 of them suites of about 420 square feet, a lobby and complimentary breakfast area, an indoor pool, a fitness room, a guest laundry, a market pantry, a gear-washing and drying room for rafting and climbing guests and two elevators, with 80 surface parking spaces including 8 trailer and raft-trailer spaces, on a site plan that places the building on the upper portion of the tract toward the highway with parking on the lower portion and the balance of the 4.61 acres held for a future pad. The hotel will operate 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, with a general manager, an assistant general manager, a chief engineer, front desk coverage on three shifts, breakfast attendants and a housekeeping staff that scales from about 6 in winter to about 14 in summer, for about 22 full-time equivalents on an annual basis. The sponsor will hold the land, the building and the operating business in a single-asset entity that borrows the B&I guaranteed loan, with the principals providing the personal guarantees the program requires and operating the hotel directly. The Project is positioned as the gateway's only new-build branded interior-corridor hotel, at a $138 average rate in its first year rising to $156 at stabilization, below the town's 40-room boutique hotel at $225 and above the 106-room exterior-corridor economy hotel on the same highway, with a seasonal card that runs from about $105 in January to about $195 in October.

Marketing and Sales Strategy

Pre-opening sales begins nine months before opening from the franchisor's global distribution system and loyalty program, which supplies the drive-market leisure demand from Charleston, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Washington that fills the gateway from May through October. The second channel is the outfitters: the rafting, climbing, zip-line and guided-adventure companies whose guests arrive in groups with trailers, and with whom the sales effort negotiates package rates, trailer parking and gear-room access, and the Bridge Day and fall festival calendar, which the general manager prices at the top of the card. The third channel is the shoulder-season commercial base: the county's hospital, the courthouse, the coal and gas service companies on US-19, the state park and national park staff and contractors, and the road and bridge contractors whose crews fill weekday rooms from November through March at negotiated rates. Retention runs through the loyalty program, the indoor pool, which the gateway's existing supply does not offer in a branded product, and the gear room.

Amenities

  • 70 guest rooms, 56 standard and 14 suites, interior corridor, four stories, two elevators
  • Complimentary hot breakfast area and 24-hour market pantry
  • Indoor pool and fitness room
  • Gear-washing and drying room for rafting and climbing guests
  • Guest laundry and business center
  • 80 surface parking spaces including 8 trailer and raft-trailer spaces, electric vehicle charging at four spaces
  • Brand-standard internet, monument signage at the US-19 signal

Site and Location Analysis

The parcel is a 4.61-acre, 200,812 square foot commercial tract at 000 Laurel Creek Road, Fayetteville, West Virginia 25840, just off US-19 at the Laurel Creek Road traffic light, listed at $450,000, or $97,614 per acre, through MLS 92949 with no reductions shown, and marketed for retail, medical offices, restaurant, hotel or light industrial use; the listing does not state the zoning district or the utilities. Other commercial land on the US-19 corridor is asking $45,577 per acre for a 13-acre tract at 462 Hinkle Road with about half a mile of US-19 frontage, reduced to $592,500 and described as zoned B-2 under the original 1966 zoning, and $78,261 per acre for a 23-acre tract adjoining the US-19 expressway at Glen Jean, so the subject's ask is at the top of the corridor for a signalized, hotel-sized tract. US-19 is the four-lane Corridor L that carries traffic between Interstate 79 at Sutton and Interstate 64 at Beckley, and every visitor to the New River Gorge Bridge and the Canyon Rim Visitor Center from the north or the south passes the subject's intersection.

Fayetteville had about 2,900 residents at the 2020 census and Fayette County about 40,500, with Oak Hill, the county's largest town, at about 8,200. The county's economy is tourism, health care, government and the remaining coal and gas service sector. New River Gorge National Park and Preserve, designated a national park in December 2020, recorded 1,958,440 recreation visits in 2025, a record, up about 8 percent from 1,811,937 in 2024, which was itself up 6.31 percent from 2023, and about 64 percent above the 1,195,721 of 2019; the park ranked 17th of 63 national parks in 2025. The Canyon Rim Visitor Center, about two miles from the subject, recorded 433,334 visits in 2025. The convention and visitors bureau reported Fayette County traveler spending of about $172.9 million and 1,653 tourism jobs, regional visitor spending across nine counties of $1.2 billion in 2023 against $881 million in 2019, hotel occupancy tax revenue of $530,081 in 2025, and July through October as the peak months with Bridge Day as the top event. The park recorded only about 42,860 overnight stays inside its boundaries in 2025; the rest of its overnight visitors sleep in the gateway's hotels, cabins and rentals, in Oak Hill and in Beckley.

The site's two liabilities are its zoning district, which the listing does not state and which determines whether a hotel is by right or conditional, and the gateway's calendar, which runs above 200,000 park visits a month from June through August and below 100,000 from November through March. The town's new 40-room boutique hotel, opened August 28, 2026 at $225 a night in the restored 1923 high school on High Street, confirms investor demand for the gateway and sets the upper rate boundary; it does not compete for the branded limited-service guest.

Zoning and Entitlement

The Town of Fayetteville's Planning and Zoning Code, Part Thirteen of the town's codified ordinances, governs inside the town limits. Section 1307.01 establishes the districts R-1, R-2, MU Mixed Use, C-1 General Commercial, C Conservation, NC Neighborhood Commercial and the Historic and Scenic overlays. Section 1305.03 defines Hotel/Motel as a building or group of buildings in which lodging is provided and offered for compensation. Section 1315.03(a) lists Hotel/Motel as a permitted use in C-1, and Section 1315.05 sets no minimum lot area or width in C-1, a maximum height of 50 feet, a maximum lot coverage of 80 percent and no setbacks except 25 feet where the lot adjoins a residential district. Section 1313.03(b) lists Hotel/Motel as a conditional use in MU, reviewed by the Board of Zoning Appeals, with a maximum height of 40 feet under Section 1313.05 that would require the subject to be redesigned at three stories. Hotel/Motel is not listed in R-1, R-2 or Conservation; the Neighborhood Commercial district permits a Country Inn of up to 20 bedrooms and the Historic Overlay does not prohibit a hotel. The text reviewed is the town's February 17, 2022 final draft; the adopted and codified ordinance is published through the town's codification service and must be confirmed, and the parcel's district on the town's official map was not retrieved. The study assumes C-1 and carries the MU case, with a conditional use permit and a three-story redesign, as a condition and a sensitivity. If the parcel lies outside the town limits, Fayette County's zoning, which the 462 Hinkle Road listing describes as the original 1966 zoning with a B-2 commercial district, would govern and would also permit a hotel; the jurisdiction is confirmed by the zoning verification letter that the determination requires.

The Project is financed under USDA Business and Industry, which applies no transient revenue test; the hotel is an eligible business under 7 CFR 5001.105 and its site is in a rural area, since Fayette County has no city or town of more than 50,000 people. The study nonetheless carries stays of 30 nights or more at under 3 percent of room nights, because the sponsor may later refinance under an SBA program.

Utilities, Fees and Property Tax

Water and sewer are municipal in the town; the Town of Fayetteville's capacity for 70 rooms at the Laurel Creek Road intersection, any moratorium and the connection fees were not located, and the budget carries $180,000 for water, sewer and electric connection, tap and capacity fees with the town's capacity letter as a condition precedent. Electric service is from the regional utility.

Property tax is computed from the West Virginia Class IV levies that apply to commercial property inside a municipality, on the state's 60 percent assessment ratio. The levies retrieved are the state's 1.00 cents per $100 of assessed value, the Fayette County Commission's 57.20 cents regular and 28.60 cents excess, the Fayette County Board of Education's 77.60 cents, and the Town of Fayetteville's 44.04 cents regular and 25.00 cents excess, for a combined Class IV rate of 233.44 cents per $100, or about $14,006 per $1,000,000 of fair market value inside the town, and about $9,864 per $1,000,000 outside it at the county levies alone; the levies retrieved are from fiscal 2022 and 2023 and the current year's rates are a disclosed item. The study carries the assessor's fair market value at $7,500,000 at stabilization for an annual tax of about $105,000 inside the town, carries $95,000 in Year 1, escalates 2.5 percent a year and runs the outside-town case as a sensitivity. The county's and the town's hotel occupancy taxes are each 6 percent, the state maximum, and the state sales tax on lodging is 6 percent; they are collected from the guest.

Trade Area Demographics

The trade area for a gateway hotel is the destination's draw, not the resident population. Fayette County's 40,500 residents supply the labor pool, which the hotel shares with the outfitters, the boutique hotel and the county's hospital; regional wage data place hotel desk clerks in the Beckley metropolitan area and the southern West Virginia nonmetropolitan area at a median of $12.00 an hour, and the study builds the front desk at $13.50 and housekeeping at $13.00 to reflect the 2026 labor market and the seasonal staffing swing. The demand base is the park's 1.96 million recreation visits, the drive market within five hours that supplies them, the outfitters' group business, Bridge Day and the fall festival calendar, and the shoulder-season commercial base of the hospital, the courthouse, the energy service companies and the public-sector contractors. The study segments the subject's demand at 70 percent leisure, 20 percent commercial and 10 percent group and contract.

Demand and Penetration

The demand model builds the subject's occupancy month by month from the park's calendar and tests it against the gateway's supply. The park's monthly pattern, from the 2023 series and the 2025 peak and trough as republished, runs above 200,000 visits in June, July and August, with an August 2025 peak of about 270,105, between 100,000 and 200,000 in April, May, September and October, and below 100,000 from November through March, with a January 2025 trough of about 41,661, a peak-to-trough ratio of about 6.5 to 1. The study carries the subject's stabilized monthly occupancy at 35 percent in January, 38 in February, 50 in March, 62 in April, 72 in May, 85 in June, 90 in July, 88 in August, 80 in September, 85 in October, 48 in November and 40 in December, for an annual average of 64 percent in Year 3 rising to 66 and 67 percent in Years 4 and 5 as the shoulder months fill; the winter months are commercial and contract demand, the summer months are leisure demand that the gateway's supply cannot hold, and October is Bridge Day and the fall color season.

The penetration test is the gateway's supply. The branded hotel supply within the town is the 106-room exterior-corridor economy hotel on US-19 and the new 40-room boutique hotel; Oak Hill holds a 2-story economy interior-corridor hotel and an older full-service lodge and conference center; Beckley, 20 miles south, holds the upper midscale set the leisure guest otherwise drives to. The subject's 70 rooms are about 32 percent of the Fayetteville and Oak Hill hotel rooms after it opens, and its product, a new-build four-story interior-corridor hotel with an indoor pool and a loyalty program, is the only one of its kind at the gateway. The study carries the subject at 54 percent occupancy in Year 1, an occupancy index of about 95 against an estimated gateway average, rising to 64 percent in Year 3, an index of about 110, at a rate index of about 110 against the gateway's branded supply and about 68 against the boutique hotel. The cabin and vacation rental inventory in the gorge, which is large and seasonal, is the summer competitor for the leisure family and is the reason the study does not carry the summer months above 90 percent.

Competitive Supply

MMCG identified five hotels in Fayetteville and Oak Hill, the Beckley upper midscale supply and the historic inn at Glen Ferris. The boutique hotel's data are from its owner's opening announcement; the other hotels' room counts are from directories and their own sites where retrieved, and their street addresses, corridor types, current rates and assessor records were not retrieved from primary sources and are disclosed.

Competitor Number 1 Quality Inn New River Gorge This 106-room economy hotel (exterior corridor) is located on US-19 in Fayetteville, WV 25840; the street address, opening year and current rates are not stated. It is the gateway's only branded hotel of scale and the subject's direct competitor for the leisure guest.

Competitor Number 2 Hill Hall Hotel, a Member of Design Hotels This 40-room boutique hotel (interior corridor, two historic school buildings) was opened on August 28, 2026. It is located at 135 High Street, Fayetteville, WV 25840. It publishes rates from $225 per night, with Standard Queen rooms of about 240 square feet, Kings of about 330, King Suites of 460 and Double King Suites of 660, a restaurant and a 24-hour pantry; it is a member of a luxury soft-brand collection and sets the gateway's upper rate boundary. The property was converted from a public school.

Competitor Number 3 Comfort Inn New River This economy interior-corridor hotel is located in Oak Hill, WV 25901; its room count, street address, opening year and current rates are not stated.

Competitor Number 4 Holiday Lodge Hotel and Conference Center This older full-service hotel with meeting space is located in Oak Hill, WV 25901; its room count, street address and current rates are not stated. It competes for the group and conference segment.

Competitor Number 5 Hampton Inn Beckley This upper midscale hotel (interior corridor, brand standard) is located in Beckley, WV 25801, about 20 miles south of the subject; its room count, street address and current rates are not stated. It and the other Beckley upper midscale hotels hold the branded leisure demand that the gateway cannot accommodate.

The Glen Ferris Inn, a historic inn on the Kanawha River northwest of the gateway, and the adventure resorts and the gorge's cabin and vacation rental inventory are the leisure guest's alternatives in summer and are not hotel competitors in the branded sense. No hotel other than the boutique hotel was found to have been announced, approved or built near the gateway since 2024.

Pricing and Rate Positioning

The subject's rate is set from the gateway's own evidence and the national benchmarks. The national market ran a $160.54 rate in 2025 with upper midscale rate growth near zero in 2026; the gateway's boutique hotel opened at $225; its economy hotel's rates were not retrieved and are estimated from the segment at $95 to $130 seasonally. The study carries the subject at $138 in Year 1, $143 in Year 2, $148 in Year 3, $152 in Year 4 and $156 in Year 5, a rate index of about 68 against the boutique hotel and about 110 against the gateway's branded supply, with a seasonal card from about $105 in January to about $195 in October and festival weekend premiums. Other income, which comprises the market pantry, guest laundry, the gear room, vending and cancellation fees, is carried at 3 percent of rooms revenue. Lease-up concessions are not carried; the first year is carried at a lower occupancy instead.

Lease-Up and Occupancy

Construction runs 15 months from a loan closing in the first quarter of 2027, with opening in the second quarter of 2028 ahead of the summer season and the first full year carried as 2029; the partial 2028 year is carried at the reserve.

YearRoomsAverage rateOccupancyRevPARRooms revenueTotal revenue
Year 1 (2029)70$13854 percent$74.52$1,904,200$1,961,300
Year 2 (2030)70$14360 percent$85.80$2,191,900$2,257,700
Year 3 (2031)70$14864 percent$94.72$2,420,300$2,492,900
Year 4 (2032)70$15266 percent$100.32$2,562,500$2,639,400
Year 5 (2033)70$15667 percent$104.52$2,670,800$2,751,000

The ramp follows the national pattern for new branded limited-service hotels and the three-year stabilization that the empirical literature supports, with the shoulder months filling last. The Year 1 shortfall of $95,100 against the restructured debt service is funded from the reserve.

Project Cost Estimate

Location: 000 Laurel Creek Road, Fayetteville, WV 25840 Size in SF (Gross): 38,000 Rooms: 70

ItemCostCost in %Cost per Room
Land Cost
Land Acquisition (4.61 acres, Laurel Creek Road, asking price)$450,0003.5%$6,429
Closing, Survey, Geotechnical and Phase I$40,0000.3%$571
Total Land Cost$490,0003.8%$7,000
Hard Cost
Site Work, Grading, Retaining and Stormwater on Sloped Terrain$850,0006.7%$12,143
Water, Sewer and Electric Connection, Tap and Capacity Fees$180,0001.4%$2,571
Base Building, Four Stories, 38,000 SF$5,320,00041.7%$76,000
Exterior Walls, Roofing and Envelope$620,0004.9%$8,857
Heating and Cooling, Guest Room Units and Common Areas$420,0003.3%$6,000
Elevators (2)$320,0002.5%$4,571
Fire Sprinklers and Alarm$230,0001.8%$3,286
Indoor Pool, Fitness Room and Gear Room$240,0001.9%$3,429
Parking and Paving, 80 Spaces with Trailer Spaces$300,0002.4%$4,286
Landscaping, Lighting, Signage and Fencing$130,0001.0%$1,857
Architecture, Engineering and Permits$400,0003.1%$5,714
Hard Cost Contingency (6 percent)$540,6004.2%$7,723
Total Hard Cost$9,550,60074.9%$136,437
Improvements
Guest Room FF&E, 70 Rooms$910,0007.1%$13,000
Public Area, Breakfast and Pool FF&E$170,0001.3%$2,429
Property Management, Internet, Telephone and Technology$120,0000.9%$1,714
Operating Supplies and Equipment$90,0000.7%$1,286
Total Equipment$1,290,00010.1%$18,429
Financial Cost
Construction Period Interest (Bank Interim Loan)$400,0003.1%$5,714
Lender Fees (1 percent)$95,7000.8%$1,367
USDA B&I Upfront Guarantee Fee (3 percent of the guaranteed amount)$229,6001.8%$3,280
Legal, Title and Closing$85,0000.7%$1,214
Franchise Application and Initial Fees$85,0000.7%$1,214
Pre-Opening Payroll, Marketing and Working Capital$170,0001.3%$2,429
Interest and Operating Reserve Through Lease-Up$359,1002.8%$5,130
Total Financial Cost$1,424,40011.2%$20,349
Total Subject Project Cost$12,755,000100.0%$182,214

Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG

Total project cost of $182,214 per room sits inside the 2026 national range of about $170,000 to $197,000 per room for limited-service hotels, with land at only $7,000 per room and hard cost of $136,437 per room reflecting a four-story building with an indoor pool on sloped Appalachian terrain that requires retaining and extended site work, which the national building cost index's 4.8 percent rise in the year to mid-2026 compounds. The reserve of $359,100 funds the partial 2028 opening year and the Year 1 shortfall of $95,100 under the restructured case. The guarantee fee is carried on the as-proposed loan and falls to about $151,200 on the restructured loan.

Loan Assumptions (as proposed)

ItemValue
LTC Ratio75.0%
Loan$9,566,000 USDA B&I guaranteed loan, 80 percent guaranteed
Equity$3,189,000 (25.0%), the program's requirement for construction guaranteed before completion
Interest Rate8.00% fixed (MMCG assumption at 2026 B&I pricing) plus the 0.55 percent annual retention fee on the guaranteed balance
Amortization30 years
Annual Debt Service$842,200 principal and interest plus $42,100 retention fee, $884,300 total

Loan Assumptions (restructured)

ItemValue
LTC Ratio49.4%
Loan$6,300,000 USDA B&I guaranteed loan, 80 percent guaranteed
Equity$6,455,000 (50.6%)
Interest Rate8.00% fixed plus the 0.55 percent retention fee (MMCG assumptions)
Amortization30 years
Annual Debt Service$554,700 principal and interest plus $27,700 retention fee, $582,400 total

The restructuring sizes the loan to the Year 4 cash flow at 1.25x. The additional $3,266,000 of equity is the difference between what a branded limited-service hotel costs to build at a national park gateway in 2026 and what a $100 RevPAR market can carry at the program's maximum leverage; it is the sponsor's price of admission to a market whose demand is proven and whose seasonality is structural.

USDA Business and Industry Program Compliance

The Project is an eligible business in an eligible rural area under 7 CFR Part 5001: hotels and motels are named as eligible uses in Section 5001.105, and Fayette County has no city or town of more than 50,000 people. The guaranteed loan exceeds $1,000,000 to a new business, so an independent feasibility study is required under Section 5001.306, and this study addresses the five elements the regulation names: economic feasibility through the park's visitation, the county's traveler spending and the shoulder-season commercial base; market feasibility through the monthly demand curve and the gateway's supply; technical feasibility through the product's fit to the leisure and outfitter demand, including the indoor pool, the gear room and the trailer parking; financial feasibility through the pro forma, the coverage schedule by year and the restructured sizing; and management feasibility through the sponsor's experience and the franchisor's operating support. The borrower's equity is 25 percent as proposed, the program's requirement where the guarantee is issued before construction is complete, stated as balance sheet equity; the restructured case carries 50.6 percent. The guarantee is 80 percent because the loan exceeds $5,000,000, the upfront fee is 3 percent of the guaranteed amount and the annual retention fee is 0.55 percent of the outstanding guaranteed balance, at fiscal 2026 terms. The real estate term is 30 years. The study presents the sensitivities a USDA reviewer expects: the standard occupancy, rate, cost and interest cases, the fuel price case on drive-to leisure demand, the summer-season case and the zoning and tax jurisdiction cases.

Operating Expenses

The Year 4 operating budget, the first year at 1.25x, at 66 percent occupancy and a $152 rate is built by line on a Uniform System of Accounts basis for a 70-room upper midscale hotel in Fayette County.

Line (Year 4)AmountPer room per year
Rooms department expense (23 percent of rooms revenue)$589,400$8,420
Other department expense (60 percent of other income)$46,100$659
Administrative and general (9 percent of revenue)$237,500$3,393
Information and telecommunications (1.5 percent)$39,600$566
Sales and marketing (4.5 percent)$118,800$1,697
Franchise royalty and program fees (10 percent of rooms revenue)$256,300$3,661
Property operations and maintenance (4.5 percent)$118,800$1,697
Utilities (4.5 percent)$118,800$1,697
Management fee (3 percent)$79,200$1,131
Property tax$107,500$1,536
Property and liability insurance$91,900$1,313
Total operating expenses$1,803,900$25,770
Net operating income$835,500$11,936
NOI margin31.7 percent
FF&E reserve (4 percent of revenue)$105,600$1,509
Cash flow available for debt service$729,900$10,427

Gross operating profit before the management fee and fixed charges is about $1.11 million, a 42 percent margin, below the 45 percent a metropolitan upper midscale hotel earns because the seasonal staffing swing, the pool and the winter months carry fixed cost against low revenue. Labor is built at $13.00 for housekeeping and $13.50 for the front desk from regional wage evidence, with the housekeeping staff scaling from 6 to 14 across the year. Franchise fees are carried at the full contractual load of about 10 percent of rooms revenue for the upper midscale brands. The 3 percent management fee is carried although the sponsor will operate. Property tax reflects the combined Class IV levies of 233.44 cents per $100 on a $7,500,000 assessor value at the 60 percent ratio; insurance is carried at $1,313 per room in Year 4 for a new sprinklered building in inland West Virginia with no coastal, wildfire or significant flood loading, escalating 5 percent a year. The FF&E reserve ramps from 2 percent in Year 1 to 4 percent in Year 3.

Five-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage (Restructured)

LineYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Rooms revenue$1,904,200$2,191,900$2,420,300$2,562,500$2,670,800
Other income$57,100$65,800$72,600$76,900$80,200
Total revenue$1,961,300$2,257,700$2,492,900$2,639,400$2,751,000
Total operating expenses$1,434,800$1,595,300$1,708,000$1,803,900$1,878,800
Net operating income$526,500$662,400$784,900$835,500$872,200
NOI margin26.8%29.3%31.5%31.7%31.7%
FF&E reserve (2, 3, 4, 4, 4 percent)$39,200$67,700$99,700$105,600$110,000
Cash flow available for debt service$487,300$594,700$685,200$729,900$762,200
Annual debt service$582,400$582,400$582,400$582,400$582,400
Cash flow after debt service($95,100)$12,300$102,800$147,500$179,800
Debt service coverage0.84x1.02x1.18x1.25x1.31x

The Year 1 shortfall of $95,100 is funded from the reserve. The hotel covers from Year 2 at 1.02x, reaches 1.25x in Year 4 and builds to 1.31x by Year 5, and its Year 4 yield on total project cost of 6.6 percent before the reserve is the return a branded limited-service hotel earns at a national park gateway at $182,000 per room, which is why the equity carries half the cost. As proposed at 25 percent equity and a $9,566,000 loan, the same operating projection produces coverage of 0.55x in Year 1, 0.67x in Year 2, 0.77x in Year 3, 0.83x in Year 4 and 0.86x in Year 5 against annual debt service of $884,300; the as-proposed loan does not reach 1.0x within the projection, and the as-proposed row is the determination.

Break-Even Analysis

At Year 4 rates, the restructured hotel's fixed operating cost is $714,100, comprising administrative and general, information technology, property operations, utilities, property tax and insurance, and its variable cost is 44.5 percent of rooms revenue for the rooms department, franchise fees, sales and marketing, the management fee and the FF&E reserve.

ThresholdOccupancy at a $152 rate
NOI break-even before debt service33.1 percent
1.00x debt service coverage60.2 percent
1.25x debt service coverage66.0 percent
Year 4 forecast66.0 percent

The 1.25x threshold sits at the forecast by design, because the loan is sized to it. The 1.0x threshold at 60.2 percent is six points below the forecast and two points below the national 2025 occupancy, and the operating break-even at 33.1 percent is the January occupancy, which is the honest statement of a gateway credit: the hotel loses money in January and February every year and makes its year from May through October, and the loan is sized so that the year as a whole covers.

Sensitivity Analysis

Case (Year 4, restructured)Total revenueCash flow available for debt serviceDebt service coverage
Base case$2,639,400$729,9001.25x
Average rate 10 percent below forecast ($137)$2,383,100$587,7001.01x
Occupancy of 60 percent$2,406,400$600,6001.03x
Occupancy of 70 percent (park demand stronger)$2,794,700$816,1001.40x
Controllable expenses 10 percent above budget$2,639,400$678,4001.16x
Combined: rate 10 percent lower and occupancy of 60 percent$2,160,300$471,8000.81x
Interest rate 100 basis points higher$2,639,400$729,9001.15x
Fuel price case: summer leisure occupancy 8 points lower, annual 63 percent$2,522,900$665,2001.14x
Parcel outside the town limits (county Class IV levies only)$2,639,400$763,4001.31x
Parcel in MU district: three-story 54-room redesign (same cost per room, equity held)$2,036,100$534,6001.16x on a $5,000,000 loan
As proposed: 25 percent equity, $9,566,000 loan$2,639,400$729,9000.83x

The restructured hotel holds coverage above 1.0x in every single-factor case and above 1.25x only in the stronger-demand and outside-town cases, which is the shape of a gateway credit at half leverage: it survives a rate miss, an occupancy miss, a fuel shock or a cost overrun, and it does not survive two of them together. The fuel price case reflects the 2026 fuel surge's possible effect on drive-to leisure demand, which the industry has not measured but which secondary-market operators report, and is carried as a sensitivity rather than a base-case assumption. The as-proposed structure fails in the base case.

Risk Factors and Mitigants

  • Seasonality. The park's calendar runs 6.5 to 1 from peak to trough. The study builds occupancy monthly, carries January at 35 percent, sizes the loan to the annual result and funds the first winter from the reserve.
  • Capital stack. At 25 percent equity the hotel does not reach 1.0x within five years. The restructuring to about 50 percent equity is the determination's central condition.
  • Zoning district. The listing does not state the district. A hotel is by right in C-1 and conditional in MU with a 40 foot height cap that would force a 54-room three-story redesign; the zoning verification letter is the first condition and the MU case is run at 1.16x.
  • Utilities. The town's water and sewer capacity at the intersection was not located. The capacity letter is a condition.
  • Site work. Sloped terrain requires retaining and extended grading, carried at $850,000 with a 6 percent contingency; the geotechnical report is a condition of the land contract.
  • Rate. The gateway's branded rate evidence is thin. The study's $152 is 68 percent of the boutique hotel's opening rate and below the national average; a 10 percent miss is run at 1.01x.
  • Federal operations. A 43-day partial government shutdown in October and November 2025 affected the park's staffing and fall visitation; the study carries the shoulder months conservatively and notes the exposure.
  • Supply. No new branded hotel was found at the gateway since 2024 beyond the boutique hotel. A branded entrant on US-19 would compete directly and is the reason the study does not carry occupancy above 67 percent.

Conditions and Limitations

The determination of not feasible as proposed and feasible as restructured is subject to the following conditions precedent on the restructured program:

  1. A B&I guaranteed loan not exceeding $6,300,000 with borrower equity of not less than $6,455,000.
  2. A zoning verification letter from the Town of Fayetteville placing the parcel in the C-1 General Commercial district, or a conditional use permit from the Board of Zoning Appeals if it lies in Mixed Use, with the land contract contingent on it; or, if the parcel lies outside the town limits, Fayette County's confirmation of the applicable district and the hotel use.
  3. The Town of Fayetteville's written confirmation of water and sewer capacity for 70 rooms at the Laurel Creek Road intersection and the connection and capacity fees.
  4. A funded interest and operating reserve of $359,100 held through the end of Year 1.
  5. Franchise approval of the site and the prototype by an upper midscale brand.
  6. A guaranteed maximum price construction contract with a completion date not later than May 31, 2028, ahead of the summer season, and a geotechnical report supporting the site work budget.
  7. The lender's underwriting carrying the park's monthly visitation curve as the occupancy curve, with the shoulder months at the study's levels.

The following items could not be verified from a primary source at the study date and are disclosed: the parcel's zoning district and whether it lies inside the town limits; the adopted and codified text of the Town of Fayetteville's zoning ordinance, which the study carries from the February 17, 2022 final draft; the town's water and sewer capacity, moratoria and connection fees; the current fiscal year's state, county, school and municipal Class IV levy rates, which the study carries from fiscal 2022 and 2023 schedules; the park's 2025 monthly visitation series, which the study carries from the 2023 pattern and the republished 2025 peak and trough; the room counts, street addresses, corridor types, opening years and current rates of the Quality Inn, Comfort Inn, Holiday Lodge and Hampton Inn from their own sites; the Fayette County assessor's records and tax amounts for the competitors; and the boutique hotel's floors, corridor type and opening results beyond its owner's announcement.

What the Lender and USDA Would Receive

  • The written determination with the as-proposed and restructured capital stacks stated side by side and the seven conditions precedent
  • The eligibility analysis: the rural area, the eligible use, the feasibility study trigger, the equity standard, the guarantee and the fees
  • The zoning analysis with the ordinance sections cited, the by-right and conditional findings and the jurisdiction question
  • The site analysis with the listing, the corridor, the park's visitation and the gateway's supply
  • The demand basis: the park's monthly calendar, the county's traveler spending, the outfitter and shoulder-season segments and the monthly occupancy curve
  • The competitor census with the boutique hotel's opening data and the unverified items disclosed
  • The seasonal rate card, the five-year ramp and the penetration indices
  • The project cost estimate and loan assumptions in MMCG's standard format, with both structures
  • The USALI operating budget by line with the seasonal staffing model, the five-year pro forma and coverage by year for both structures
  • The break-even occupancy at each test and the sensitivity cases, including the fuel price, zoning district, tax jurisdiction and as-proposed cases
  • The B&I compliance notes under 7 CFR Part 5001 and the five feasibility elements

This model study applies the methodology described on MMCG's hotel feasibility study and USDA hotel feasibility study pages. MMCG prepares hotel feasibility studies for SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA Business and Industry and conventional lenders nationwide, with engagements from $4,900 and delivery in 9 to 16 business days.

Sources

  1. RE/MAX, Homes.com, Land.com and realestatewv.com listings, 000 Laurel Creek Road, Fayetteville, WV 25840, MLS 92949 and 25-576, accessed October 2026
  2. Foxfire Realty, Coldwell Banker and LandSearch listings, 462 Hinkle Road, Fayetteville, WV, MLS 25-473; Homes.com and Land.com listings, Wood Mountain Road, Glen Jean, and Pine Knoll Drive, Oak Hill, accessed October 2026
  3. Town of Fayetteville, West Virginia, Planning and Zoning Code, Part Thirteen, Final Draft Zoning Ordinance, February 17, 2022, Sections 1305.03, 1307.01, 1313.03, 1313.05, 1315.03, 1315.05, 1318.03, 1318.05 and 1319.05; codified version through the town's codification service
  4. National Park Service, Public Interest in National Parks Remains Strong as Visits Top 323 Million in 2025, March 13, 2026; NPS visitation statistics for New River Gorge National Park and Preserve as republished by West Virginia Explorer, 2026, and by publiclandsdata.com
  5. National Park Service, Visitation increases in 2023 for all three national park sites in southern West Virginia, February 26, 2024; WVVA, Record visitation for New River Gorge National Park and Preserve in 2024, March 11, 2025; West Virginia Public Broadcasting and WV MetroNews, seasonality reporting, 2024 and May 25, 2025
  6. New River Gorge Convention and Visitors Bureau, 2025 Annual Report to the West Virginia Legislature, Joint Committee on Government and Finance
  7. West Virginia Tax Division, Hotel Occupancy Tax; TSD-435 and TSD-316, sales and use tax for lodging; Property Tax Rates, Class IV state levy; West Virginia Code 7-18 and 11-8-6e
  8. Fayette County Commission, Levy Estimate (Budget), fiscal 2022 to 2023; Fayette County Board of Education, Schedule of Proposed Levy Rates; Town of Fayetteville, Levy Estimate, fiscal 2021 to 2022, as published in legal notices; Fayette County Sheriff, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Tax return
  9. Mountain Shore Properties, Hill Hall Hotel Announces Official Opening in Fayetteville, West Virginia, PR Newswire, September 1, 2026; Hotel News Resource, Hill Hall Hotel Opens in Fayetteville, September 2026; Marriott International, Hill Hall Hotel property page; Hill Hall Hotel website, rooms page; Sen. Capito press page and WCHS, Fayetteville school redevelopment announcement
  10. TripAdvisor, Quality Inn New River Gorge, room count; New River Gorge CVB, Hotels and Motels listing; Choice Hotels, Quality Inn New River Gorge, accessed October 2026
  11. O*NET OnLine, local wages for hotel, motel and resort desk clerks, Beckley metropolitan area and southern West Virginia nonmetropolitan area, May 2025; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages in Charleston, May 2025
  12. CoStar, U.S. hotel performance for 2025 and August 2026 forecast; Hotel Investment Today and CoStar News, reporting on gasoline prices and hotel demand, March 2026
  13. HVS, U.S. Hotel Development Cost Survey 2026; Turner Building Cost Index, mid-2026
  14. HotelData by Actabl, H1 2026 Hotel Profitability Report; CBRE Hotels Research, Trends in the Hotel Industry 2025 results, as reported May 2026
  15. STR and CoStar, hotel ramp-up and stabilization analyses; Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, Hotel Occupancy: Is the Three-Year Stabilization Assumption Justified?, May 2011
  16. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, 7 CFR Part 5001, Sections 5001.105 and 5001.306, and the fiscal 2026 Business and Industry guarantee and fee notice, 91 FR 11272, March 9, 2026
  17. Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, cost data, 2026

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Michal Mohelsky, J.D., Principal of MMCG Invest

Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA

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