A 76-room, two-story, exterior-corridor economy motel built in 2001 and last renovated in 2011 at the Interstate 20 Exit 138 interchange in Rayville, Richland Parish, Louisiana, offered with its real estate and franchise at a $5,500,000 asking price, or $72,368 per room, in a parish of about 19,500 residents where a data center campus announced at $10 billion in December 2024 and expanded to more than $50 billion in July 2026 has put 3,700 to 7,500 construction workers on site and pushed parish sales tax collections to nearly double. The trailing twelve months show 86 percent occupancy at a $128 rate and net operating income of about $1.37 million, which passes the SOP 50 10 8.1 Appendix 15 historical coverage test at nearly 3.0x on a 90 percent loan. Normalized to the demand that remains when construction ends in 2030, the hotel produces about $320,000 of cash flow at 55 percent occupancy and a $90 rate, which supports a loan of about $2,450,000 at 1.25x, not the $4,455,000 the trailing income would carry. Determination: not feasible at the $5,500,000 asking price; feasible as restructured at a $3,500,000 purchase price, $46,053 per room, with a $2,450,000 7(a) loan, $2,060,000 of equity and a $700,000 capital reserve, conditioned on a Quality of Earnings report, the length-of-stay reconstruction confirming the transient revenue test, and a cash flow sweep through 2029.
Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | October 2, 2026
Study at a Glance
| Item | Finding |
|---|---|
| Subject | 76-room economy motel, 116 Cottonland Drive, Rayville, LA 71269, Richland Parish, at I-20 Exit 138; built 2001, last renovated 2011, two stories, exterior corridor, national economy franchise |
| Transaction | Acquisition of the real estate, the business and the franchise by an experienced operator as an Initial Acquisition with continuity of operations under SOP 50 10 8.1 Appendix 15; seller's asking price $5,500,000 (MMCG model assumption) |
| Zoning | None. Richland Parish has no zoning ordinance; the police jury is engaging a consultant toward a first zoning law and requires a permit fee of about 1 percent of construction cost |
| Trailing twelve months (model) | 86 percent occupancy, $128 average rate, rooms revenue $3,053,000, net operating income $1,374,000 |
| Normalized stabilized year (2031) | 55 percent occupancy, $90 average rate, total revenue $1,400,600, net operating income $377,500, cash flow after reserve $321,500 |
| Loan program | SBA 7(a), 25-year term where the special-use real estate's value is substantially dependent on the business; 10 percent minimum equity injection |
| Total Subject Project Cost (restructured) | $4,510,000 ($59,342 per room, $46,053 of it purchase price) |
| Debt service coverage (as proposed, $4,455,000 loan) | 2.56x 2027, 2.03x 2028, 1.31x 2029, 0.84x 2030, 0.69x 2031 |
| Debt service coverage (restructured, $2,450,000 loan) | 4.65x 2027, 3.69x 2028, 2.38x 2029, 1.52x 2030, 1.25x 2031 |
| Break-even occupancy (2031, restructured) | 32.6 percent before debt, 50.5 percent at 1.0x coverage, 55.0 percent at 1.25x |
| Determination | Not feasible at the asking price; feasible as restructured, conditioned on a Quality of Earnings report, the length-of-stay reconstruction, a funded $700,000 capital reserve, a cash flow sweep of 50 percent of excess cash flow through 2029 applied to principal, and the franchise transfer |
Determination
MMCG concludes that the acquisition of the 76-room economy motel at 116 Cottonland Drive in Rayville, Louisiana is not feasible at the $5,500,000 asking price and is feasible as restructured. The hotel is well located, at the only full interchange serving the data center campus that lies between Rayville and Delhi, it has no zoning constraint because the parish has none, and its trailing income passes every historical test the program applies: on the last fiscal year and on a two-year average, the trailing net operating income of about $1.37 million covers a 90 percent loan at nearly 3.0x, far above the 1.25x that Appendix 15 of SOP 50 10 8.1 sets for an Initial Acquisition. The proposal fails because the trailing income describes a construction site, not a hotel. The parish's workday population has grown by about 8,000 on a base of 19,500, two RV parks totaling up to 700 hookups and a 130-acre crew housing complex with more than 300 full-service sites are under construction, rents have risen from $600 to $700 a month to $2,500, and the data center's own schedule runs construction through 2030 before it settles to about 1,000 permanent roles. When the study removes the contract demand on the schedule the campus has published, carries the parish's interstate transient base, the campus's permanent and vendor population and the utility operations staff, and restates deferred capital, management, property tax and insurance, the hotel produces about $320,000 of cash flow after reserve at 55 percent occupancy and a $90 rate, which supports about $2,450,000 of debt at 1.25x.
Restructured at a $3,500,000 purchase price, $46,053 per room, which is where a 95-room hotel of the same brand and age class closed in Mississippi in January 2023 after a $1 million renovation, with a $2,450,000 7(a) loan on a 25-year term, $2,060,000 of equity and a $700,000 capital reserve for fifteen years of deferred renovation, the hotel covers at 4.65x in 2027, 2.38x in 2029, 1.52x in 2030 and 1.25x in 2031, the first post-construction year. The determination is conditioned on a Quality of Earnings report, which the program requires at a $3,000,000 business purchase price; on the length-of-stay reconstruction from the property management system confirming that more than 50 percent of trailing revenue came from stays of 30 days or less, which the study's model places at 56 percent and which is close enough to the line to be verified rather than assumed; on the capital reserve being funded at closing; on a cash flow sweep applying 50 percent of excess cash flow in 2027, 2028 and 2029 to principal, which reduces the balance by about $1.4 million before the demand declines; and on the franchisor's approval of the transfer.
Scope and Basis of This Model Study
This is an MMCG model study: a complete feasibility analysis performed on a real, operating hotel using public data, prepared to show 7(a) lenders and hotel buyers how MMCG normalizes trailing income in a market driven by a single finite generator and tests an acquisition against the Appendix 15 historical floor, the transient revenue rule and the demand that will exist when the generator ends. It is not a client engagement. MMCG has no relationship with the hotel's owner, the franchisor, any broker or any prospective buyer, and the hotel is not, to MMCG's knowledge, listed for sale; the asking price, the trailing operating figures and the buyer's terms are MMCG model assumptions set to illustrate the method, and the analysis does not represent an offer, an appraisal or a recommendation to buy the hotel. Figures drawn from hotel directories, the parish assessor's published millage table, the Louisiana Association of Tax Administrators, the Louisiana Revised Statutes, the data center operator's own announcements, the utility's announcements and press reporting on the parish are identified as such. Figures labeled MMCG assumption are underwriting inputs set by MMCG from industry benchmarks. Items that could not be verified from a primary source at the study date are listed in the Conditions and Limitations section rather than estimated silently: in particular, the subject's and the competitors' room counts, corridor types and rates from their own or the brand's websites, which directories report inconsistently; the parish assessor's parcel records and tax amounts; the current parish millage, which the assessor last published as a 2021 estimate; the RV park moratorium's ordinance number and expiration; and the existence of a 104-room hotel under development at the interchange, which appears only in a land broker's listing.
Project Business Plan
The Project will continue to operate as a franchised economy motel of 76 rooms at 116 Cottonland Drive, Rayville, Richland Parish, Louisiana, at the Interstate 20 Exit 138 interchange, under the same national economy flag following the franchisor's approval of the transfer and a transfer property improvement plan. The physical program is the existing two-story exterior-corridor building constructed in 2001 on an interstate frontage parcel, with 76 guest rooms of standard king and double-queen configuration, a lobby with a complimentary continental breakfast area, a guest laundry, surface parking for 80 vehicles including truck and trailer spaces, and a monument sign visible from the interstate. The hotel operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, with a general manager, front desk coverage on three shifts, a housekeeping staff sized to occupancy and a maintenance technician, for about 12 full-time equivalents at the normalized occupancy and about 17 during the construction period. The buyer will acquire the real estate, the business and the franchise in a single operating entity that borrows the 7(a) loan, with the principals providing the personal guarantees the program requires, and will operate the hotel directly. The Project is positioned as the interchange's economy option for interstate transient travelers, the campus's vendor and visitor population, the utility's operations staff and the parish's weekday commercial demand, at a $130 rate during the construction period declining to $90 at the normalized year, with weekly rates for stays of seven to twenty-nine nights and no monthly product.
Marketing and Sales Strategy
The primary channel during the construction period is the campus's general contractors and their subcontractors, with whom the hotel holds block agreements for crews rotating on seven to fourteen day schedules, priced at a weekly rate and capped at 29 nights per stay so that the hotel's revenue mix stays inside the transient requirement. The second channel is the franchisor's reservation system and loyalty program, which supplies the interstate transient base that is the hotel's demand after 2030 and that the hotel must rebuild as the contract demand ends. The third channel is the campus's permanent operations, its equipment vendors and the utility's generating plant staff, whom the general manager solicits from 2028 as the plants come online. Retention runs through the loyalty program and the hotel's position as the only interchange hotel between Monroe and Delhi with a renovated product, which the capital reserve funds.
Amenities
- 76 guest rooms, two stories, exterior corridor, renovated under the capital reserve with new case goods, soft goods and bath surrounds
- Complimentary continental breakfast and 24-hour coffee
- Guest laundry and vending
- Surface parking for 80 vehicles with truck and trailer spaces
- Interstate-visible monument signage at Exit 138
- Property-wide wireless internet and a small meeting area in the lobby
Site and Location Analysis
The subject is at 116 Cottonland Drive, Rayville, Louisiana 71269, at the Interstate 20 Exit 138 interchange, which is the Rayville exit and the full interchange nearest the data center campus between Rayville and Delhi. Hotel directories describe the property as 76 rooms, two stories, built in 2001 and renovated in 2011; one directory reports 78 rooms, and the franchise's own site could not be reached to resolve the count, which the study carries as a disclosed item. The interchange's other lodging is a 33 to 37 room exterior-corridor economy hotel at 125 Maxwell Drive, built in 1998 and renovated in 2016, now operating as an independent lodge, and a 24-room motel at 1134 Harrison Street in town, listed for sale at $650,000. Commercial land at the interchange is asking $1,250,000 for a 3.37-acre cleared tract on McGowan Lane, up from a $750,000 prior ask, whose broker describes it as near a 104-room hotel development; no permit, franchise announcement or news report confirming that hotel was found, and the study treats it as unverified.
Richland Parish had about 20,000 residents at the 2020 census and about 19,500 on the 2025 estimate, with Rayville at about 3,300 and Delhi at about 2,600. The parish's economy was agricultural until December 2024, when the data center operator announced a $10 billion campus on 2,250 acres between the two towns with 500 direct and more than 1,000 indirect permanent jobs and 5,000 construction workers at peak. The operator reported 3,700 construction workers on site in December 2025 with a peak of 5,000 expected by June 2026, restructured the project as a $27 billion joint venture in October 2025, and in July 2026 announced an expansion to 5 gigawatts and more than $50 billion of investment, supporting more than 7,500 jobs at peak construction and about 1,000 roles once operational, with more than $1 billion of local road, water and wastewater improvements. The electric utility is building two combined-cycle generating plants on the same corridor, expected to be complete and operational by late 2028, with 1,500 to 1,800 construction jobs on the units, 3,500 to 5,000 on substation and transmission work, and 44 permanent positions.
The construction has transformed the parish's lodging and housing market. Local officials estimate about 8,000 additional people in the parish on a workday. Parish sales tax collections nearly doubled in 2025 and the police jury holds more than $20 million in reserve. Rents that were $600 to $700 a month are reported at $2,500. The general contractor's subcontractor is building a 130-acre crew housing complex with more than 300 full-service RV sites near the campus, two RV parks totaling up to 700 hookups were under construction in early 2026, and the police jury has imposed a moratorium on further RV parks. Nightly hotel rates in Monroe, 30 miles west, have been reported at several times their historical level. The site's liability is the same fact as its strength: the demand that fills it is scheduled to end.
Zoning and Entitlement
Richland Parish has no zoning ordinance. Press reporting in August 2026 describes a parish that has had no need for zoning laws and whose police jury handles variance requests, permit fees and setbacks from property lines, and reports that the jury is hiring a consulting firm to produce a report by the end of 2026 that could lead to the parish's first zoning laws. The parish typically requires payment of about 1 percent of construction cost to obtain a building permit. Neither the Town of Rayville nor the Town of Delhi published a zoning ordinance that the study could locate. The subject is an existing, operating hotel and the acquisition requires no land use approval; the transfer property improvement plan and the capital reserve work require only a parish building permit, for which the study carries the 1 percent fee inside the reserve. The study notes the pending zoning study as a condition that could affect any future expansion or any new hotel at the interchange, including the unverified 104-room project, and carries it as a risk factor rather than a condition.
The subject's SBA eligibility finding is the transient revenue test. More than 50 percent of the hotel's prior-year revenue must come from guests staying 30 days or less. In a market where contractors have housed crews in hotels for two years, that test can fail on the hotel's own books. The study's model reconstructs the length-of-stay mix from the property management system folio history and finds that about 44 percent of trailing revenue came from stays of 30 nights or more under contractor block arrangements, which places the hotel at 56 percent transient as operated. That margin is narrow, and the determination conditions on the lender's own reconstruction confirming it. The projected mix after 2030 is about 85 percent stays of fewer than seven nights, well within the requirement, and the buyer's operating plan caps block stays at 29 nights from closing.
Utilities, Fees and Property Tax
Water, sewer and electric service are in place at the operating hotel. The Town of Rayville's water and sewer capacity and connection fees for any expansion were not located and are not required for the acquisition. The parish's water supply is reported adequate for the campus by the police jury.
Property tax is restated to the post-acquisition basis. The Richland Parish Assessor's published millage table, last updated as a 2021 estimate, places the parishwide rate at 49.60 mills and the total inside the Rayville special district at 81.74 mills before the town's 12.65 mills, for a combined in-town rate of about 94.39 mills. Louisiana assesses land at 10 percent and commercial improvements at 15 percent of fair market value, and business personal property at 15 percent. At a $3,500,000 purchase price allocated $400,000 to land and $3,100,000 to improvements, the assessed value is $505,000 and the annual tax about $47,700, or $627 per room; the study carries $54,700 in 2027 to allow for the furniture, fixtures and equipment assessment and escalates 2.5 percent a year. The current millage, which the assessor has not published since the 2021 estimate and which the school board reset in September 2025, is a disclosed item. Sales tax on room rentals inside Rayville is 10.75 percent, comprising the 5 percent state rate on hotel rooms effective January 1, 2025 and a 5.75 percent local rate; no parish, Rayville or Delhi hotel occupancy tax was found in the state statute that authorizes tourist commission occupancy taxes, which lists neighboring Morehouse, East Carroll, Franklin and Caldwell parishes but not Richland. The sales tax is collected from the guest.
Trade Area Demographics
The trade area for an interstate economy motel is the interchange's traffic and the generators within a 15-minute drive, not the parish's population. The Monroe metropolitan area, which includes Richland Parish, had an all-occupation mean wage of $22.74 an hour in May 2024, a building and grounds cleaning mean of $13.78 and an office and administrative support mean of $18.83; regional hotel desk clerk medians run near $11 to $13 and current housekeeping postings in Monroe run $15 to $16, and the study builds housekeeping at $12.50 and front desk at $13.50 for the normalized year, with construction-period wages 15 percent higher. The demand base in the construction period is the campus's 3,700 to 7,500 workers and the utility's 1,500 to 1,800 generating plant and 3,500 to 5,000 transmission workers, net of those housed in the RV parks, the crew complex, rented housing and the Monroe hotels. The demand base in the normalized year is the interstate's transient traffic, the campus's 1,000 permanent roles and its equipment vendors and visitors, the utility's 44 permanent plant staff and its maintenance contractors, the parish's courthouse, hospital and agricultural commercial demand, and the overflow from Monroe's branded hotels.
Demand and Penetration
The demand model separates the hotel's room nights into a dated contract segment and a permanent transient segment, and carries each on its own schedule. Contract demand is the construction workforce. The campus operator's own schedule runs construction through 2030 with a peak of more than 7,500 workers, and the utility's generating plants complete in late 2028. The study carries the hotel's contract occupancy at about 60 points of its 86 percent trailing occupancy in 2027, declining to 50 points in 2028 as the crew complex and the RV parks absorb rotating crews, 35 points in 2029 as the utility work completes and the campus moves from structure to fit-out, 20 points in 2030 as the campus completes, and zero in 2031. Transient demand is the interstate and the permanent generators, carried at 26 points in 2027, rising to 55 points by 2031 as the hotel rebuilds its loyalty and interstate base and captures the campus's permanent and vendor population, which the study sizes at about 15 points on 1,000 permanent roles, their vendors and their visitors, consistent with the room-night ratios a 1,000-employee technical campus generates in a market with no competing branded product within 30 miles.
The penetration test is the interchange's own supply. The subject's 76 rooms are about 54 percent of the roughly 140 rooms at Exit 138 and about 36 percent of the roughly 210 rooms at Exits 138 and 153 combined, so the subject's share of the parish's hotel room nights is structural, not a projection. The competing supply for the contract segment is not hotels but workforce housing: more than 300 crew sites at the complex and up to 700 RV hookups, which the study counts as about 1,000 beds competing for the seven-to-twenty-nine night segment, and which explains why the contract segment declines faster than the workforce does. The study carries no new hotel supply at the interchange because none was verified; the 104-room project in the broker's listing is run as a sensitivity.
Competitive Supply
MMCG identified four competing hotels in Richland Parish and the branded supply in Monroe and West Monroe 30 miles west. Room counts, construction and renovation years and addresses are from hotel directories and the lodge's own social media page; no current midweek or weekend rate was available from a brand site. Directory room counts conflict for two properties and are disclosed.
Competitor Number 1: The Richland Lodge, formerly Days Inn by Wyndham Rayville. This 33 to 37 room economy hotel (exterior corridor) was built in 1998 and renovated in 2016; directories report 33, 36 and 37 rooms and the count was not resolved at the study date. It is located at 125 Maxwell Drive, Rayville, LA 71269, at I-20 Exit 138. An aggregator showed a $137 low rate in the week before the study date. Real estate taxes were not retrieved at the study date. The property's dedicated land was not retrieved at the study date.
Competitor Number 2: Best Western Delhi Inn. This 44 to 45 room midscale hotel (exterior corridor per the motor club directory; a sale listing describes interior) was built in 1984 and renovated in 1992, with 22 suites and two stories with no elevator. It is located at 135 Snider Road, Delhi, LA 71232, at I-20 Exit 153. The motor club directory shows an undated $99 rate. Real estate taxes were not retrieved at the study date. The property's dedicated land was not retrieved at the study date.
Competitor Number 3: Executive Inn Express. This 48-room economy hotel (two stories; corridor type not stated) was built in 1998 and renovated in 2005. It is located at 113 Snider Road, Delhi, LA 71232. A directory shows an undated $70 rate. Real estate taxes were not retrieved at the study date. The property's dedicated land was not retrieved at the study date.
Competitor Number 4: Champions Black Bear Lodge. This 17-room independent lodge (at least two stories) is located at 231 Black Bear Drive, Delhi, LA 71232, adjoining the Black Bear Golf Course. Its opening year and rates were not retrieved at the study date. Real estate taxes were not retrieved at the study date. The property's dedicated land was not retrieved at the study date.
Competitor Number 5: Rayville Motel. This 24-room independent motel (exterior corridor; the listing describes 25 rooms in its narrative) is located at 1134 Harrison Street, Rayville, LA 71269, in town rather than at the interchange. It is listed for sale at $650,000, about $27,100 per room, as an investment with the business value excluded, through Coldwell Banker Group One Realty. It is the only hotel listed for sale in the parish and is a sub-scale in-town property, not an interchange comparable.
The branded supply 30 miles west in Monroe and West Monroe includes a 122-room economy extended-stay hotel at 230 Blanchard Street in West Monroe, a 90-room Courtyard, a Hampton Inn and Suites, a Residence Inn, a Comfort Suites, a 77-room Quality Inn and Suites and a 97-room Red Roof Inn, and the 69-room downtown soft-brand hotel that opened in May 2025. Those hotels absorb the branded and extended-stay demand the campus generates and set the ceiling on the subject's rate; the West Monroe extended-stay hotel is the subject's direct competitor for the seven-to-twenty-nine night segment and the reason the subject does not pursue monthly stays.
Pricing and Rate Positioning
The subject's rate is set from the segment's national pattern and the parish's reported construction-period pricing. National economy hotels gained more than four points of occupancy in the first half of 2026 while their rate fell about 9 percent; the subject's trailing $128 rate is a construction-period rate, roughly double what an exterior-corridor economy motel at a rural Louisiana interchange earned before December 2024, and the study carries it down on the construction schedule: $130 in 2027, $120 in 2028, $105 in 2029, $92 in 2030 and $90 in 2031, the normalized rate for a renovated economy motel against the Delhi competitors' $70 to $99 and the Rayville lodge's $137 construction-period low. Weekly rates for seven-to-twenty-nine night stays are carried at a 20 percent discount to the nightly rate and no monthly rate is offered. Other income, which comprises vending, guest laundry, pet fees and cancellation fees, is carried at 2 percent of rooms revenue.
Lease-Up and Occupancy
The acquisition closes in the first quarter of 2027 and the capital reserve work is completed in phases through 2027 without closing the hotel.
| Year | Rooms | Average rate | Occupancy | Of which contract | Rooms revenue | Total revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 76 | $130 | 85 percent | 59 points | $3,064,900 | $3,126,200 |
| 2028 | 76 | $120 | 80 percent | 50 points | $2,662,600 | $2,715,900 |
| 2029 | 76 | $105 | 70 percent | 35 points | $2,038,600 | $2,079,400 |
| 2030 | 76 | $92 | 60 percent | 20 points | $1,531,000 | $1,561,600 |
| 2031 | 76 | $90 | 55 percent | 0 points | $1,373,100 | $1,400,600 |
The projection is a decline, not a ramp, and that is the point of the study. The trailing twelve months of 86 percent at $128 are the top of the curve. The hotel earns about $2.75 million of cumulative cash flow after reserve over 2027 to 2029 against about $770,000 of restructured debt service, and the determination's cash flow sweep applies half of the excess to principal while the demand lasts.
Project Cost Estimate
Location: 116 Cottonland Drive, Rayville, LA 71269 Size in SF (Gross): about 34,000 Rooms: 76
| Item | Cost | Cost in % | Cost per Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition Cost | |||
| Purchase Price, Real Estate, Business and Franchise (restructured) | $3,500,000 | 77.6% | $46,053 |
| Closing, Title, Legal and Quality of Earnings Report | $95,000 | 2.1% | $1,250 |
| Franchise Transfer and Application Fees | $25,000 | 0.6% | $329 |
| Total Acquisition Cost | $3,620,000 | 80.3% | $47,632 |
| Improvements | |||
| Capital Reserve: Case Goods, Soft Goods and Bath Surrounds, 76 Rooms | $420,000 | 9.3% | $5,526 |
| Capital Reserve: Roofing, Mechanical and Exterior Corridor Repairs | $190,000 | 4.2% | $2,500 |
| Capital Reserve: Lobby, Breakfast Area, Signage and Technology | $60,000 | 1.3% | $789 |
| Parish Building Permit (1 percent of improvement cost) and Contingency | $30,000 | 0.7% | $395 |
| Total Improvements | $700,000 | 15.5% | $9,211 |
| Financial Cost | |||
| SBA 7(a) Upfront Guarantee Fee | $66,400 | 1.5% | $874 |
| Lender Fees and Packaging | $24,500 | 0.5% | $322 |
| Working Capital and Opening Inventory | $99,100 | 2.2% | $1,304 |
| Total Financial Cost | $190,000 | 4.2% | $2,500 |
| Total Subject Project Cost | $4,510,000 | 100.0% | $59,342 |
Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG
Total project cost of $59,342 per room comprises a purchase price of $46,053 per room, which sits at the closed-sale level for a renovated exterior-corridor economy hotel of the same brand and age class in the region, and a capital reserve of $9,211 per room, which is what fifteen years without a renovation costs to restore. As proposed, the same project is $6,510,000 at the $5,500,000 asking price, $85,658 per room, with the same reserve and fees.
Loan Assumptions (as proposed)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| LTC Ratio | 90.0% of the $4,950,000 purchase and reserve basis |
| Loan | $4,455,000 SBA 7(a), 75 percent guaranteed |
| Equity | $495,000 (10.0%), the minimum injection |
| Interest Rate | 9.50% variable (MMCG assumption at 2026 prime plus the permitted spread) |
| Amortization | 25 years, permitted because the special-use real estate's value is substantially dependent on the business |
| Annual Debt Service | $467,100 |
Loan Assumptions (restructured)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| LTC Ratio | 54.3% |
| Loan | $2,450,000 SBA 7(a), 75 percent guaranteed |
| Equity | $2,060,000 (45.7%) |
| Interest Rate | 9.50% variable (MMCG assumption) |
| Amortization | 25 years |
| Annual Debt Service | $256,900 |
The restructuring sizes the loan to the normalized 2031 cash flow at 1.25x rather than to the trailing income at 90 percent of cost. The difference between the two loans, about $2,000,000, is the amount of the asking price that the construction boom is being asked to pay for and that the post-construction hotel cannot carry.
SBA 7(a) Program Compliance
The transaction is an Initial Acquisition with continuity of operations under Appendix 15 of SOP 50 10 8.1, effective for applications submitted on or after October 1, 2026. The historical coverage floor is 1.25x on the last fiscal year or a two-year average; on the trailing net operating income of about $1.37 million the as-proposed loan covers at 2.94x and the restructured loan at 5.35x, and the test passes under either structure on either measurement period. The study does not replace that test; it explains what the history describes and sizes the loan to what will remain. A Quality of Earnings report is required because the business purchase price reaches $3,000,000, and the buyer's advisory and broker fees are excluded from the equity injection. The 25-year term is available because the acquisition includes owner-occupied special-use real estate whose value is substantially dependent on the business. The equity injection is 10 percent at minimum; the restructured case carries 45.7 percent.
The transient revenue test is the eligibility finding: more than 50 percent of prior-year revenue from guests staying 30 days or less, which the study's model places at 56 percent as operated and which the lender's own reconstruction from the folio history must confirm before approval. The buyer will operate the hotel directly, with no management agreement and no franchisor-affiliated manager; the franchise must be listed in the SBA Franchise Directory and the franchisor's transfer approval and brand addendum are conditions. The fiscal 2027 upfront guarantee fee on the restructured loan's $1,837,500 guaranteed portion is 3.5 percent on the first $1,000,000 and 3.75 percent on the balance, about $66,400, with a 0.55 percent annual service fee carried in the lender's rate.
Operating Expenses
The 2031 normalized operating budget at 55 percent occupancy and a $90 rate is built by line on a Uniform System of Accounts basis for a 76-room exterior-corridor economy motel in Richland Parish.
| Line (2031) | Amount | Per room per year |
|---|---|---|
| Rooms department expense (27 percent of rooms revenue) | $370,700 | $4,878 |
| Administrative and general | $137,000 | $1,803 |
| Franchise royalty and marketing fees (8.5 percent of rooms revenue) | $116,700 | $1,536 |
| Sales and marketing (2 percent) | $27,500 | $362 |
| Property operations and maintenance | $68,500 | $901 |
| Utilities | $89,000 | $1,171 |
| Management fee (3 percent) | $42,000 | $553 |
| Property tax | $60,500 | $796 |
| Property and liability insurance | $111,200 | $1,463 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,023,100 | $13,462 |
| Net operating income | $377,500 | $4,967 |
| NOI margin | 27.0 percent | |
| FF&E reserve (4 percent of revenue) | $56,000 | $737 |
| Cash flow available for debt service | $321,500 | $4,230 |
The normalized margin of 27 percent reflects an economy exterior-corridor motel at a $90 rate carrying fixed charges sized for a 76-room building; the trailing margin of about 45 percent is a construction-period margin on a $128 rate with the same fixed charges. Labor is built at $12.50 for housekeeping and $13.50 for the front desk from regional wage evidence. Franchise fees are carried at the brand's contractual 5.5 percent royalty and 3 percent marketing contribution. The 3 percent management fee is carried although the buyer will operate. Property tax reflects the combined in-town rate of about 94.39 mills on the 10 and 15 percent assessment ratios at the restructured purchase price, escalated; insurance is carried at $1,463 per room in 2031 for a 2001 exterior-corridor building in north Louisiana, escalating 5 percent a year from $1,300 in 2027. The FF&E reserve is restored at 4 percent of revenue from closing after fifteen years without one.
Five-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage (Restructured)
| Line | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooms revenue | $3,064,900 | $2,662,600 | $2,038,600 | $1,531,000 | $1,373,100 |
| Other income | $61,300 | $53,300 | $40,800 | $30,600 | $27,500 |
| Total revenue | $3,126,200 | $2,715,900 | $2,079,400 | $1,561,600 | $1,400,600 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,805,400 | $1,660,300 | $1,385,300 | $1,108,600 | $1,023,100 |
| Net operating income | $1,320,800 | $1,055,600 | $694,100 | $453,000 | $377,500 |
| NOI margin | 42.2% | 38.9% | 33.4% | 29.0% | 27.0% |
| FF&E reserve (4 percent) | $125,000 | $108,600 | $83,200 | $62,500 | $56,000 |
| Cash flow available for debt service | $1,195,800 | $947,000 | $610,900 | $390,500 | $321,500 |
| Annual debt service | $256,900 | $256,900 | $256,900 | $256,900 | $256,900 |
| Cash flow after debt service | $938,900 | $690,100 | $354,000 | $133,600 | $64,600 |
| Debt service coverage | 4.65x | 3.69x | 2.38x | 1.52x | 1.25x |
The hotel covers at 4.65x in its first year and at 1.25x in its fifth, which is the year that matters, because 2031 is the first year without construction demand and the base for every year after it. The cash flow sweep applies 50 percent of the cash flow after debt service in 2027, 2028 and 2029, about $991,000, to principal, which reduces the balance by about 40 percent before 2030 and raises 2030 and 2031 coverage to about 2.6x and 2.1x on the reduced balance. As proposed at the $5,500,000 asking price and a $4,455,000 loan, the same operating projection produces coverage of 2.56x in 2027, 2.03x in 2028, 1.31x in 2029, 0.84x in 2030 and 0.69x in 2031 against annual debt service of $467,100; the as-proposed loan fails in the fourth year and the as-proposed row is the determination.
Break-Even Analysis
At 2031 rates, the restructured hotel's fixed operating cost is $466,200, comprising administrative and general, property operations, utilities, property tax and insurance, and its variable cost is 42.6 percent of rooms revenue for the rooms department, franchise fees, sales and marketing, the management fee and the FF&E reserve.
| Threshold | Occupancy at a $90 rate |
|---|---|
| NOI break-even before debt service | 32.6 percent |
| 1.00x debt service coverage | 50.5 percent |
| 1.25x debt service coverage | 55.0 percent |
| 2031 forecast | 55.0 percent |
The 1.25x threshold sits at the forecast by design, because the loan is sized to it. The 1.0x threshold at 50.5 percent and the operating break-even at 32.6 percent are the margins of safety: the hotel carries its restructured debt at an occupancy the Delhi competitors have run for years without any campus demand, and it covers its operating costs at an occupancy no interstate motel in the parish has fallen to.
Sensitivity Analysis
| Case (2031, restructured) | Total revenue | Cash flow available for debt service | Debt service coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $1,400,600 | $321,500 | 1.25x |
| Rate 10 percent below forecast ($81) | $1,260,500 | $243,700 | 0.95x |
| Occupancy of 50 percent | $1,273,300 | $250,800 | 0.98x |
| Occupancy of 60 percent (permanent demand stronger) | $1,527,900 | $392,100 | 1.53x |
| Controllable expenses 10 percent above budget | $1,400,600 | $292,000 | 1.14x |
| Combined: rate 10 percent lower and occupancy of 50 percent | $1,146,000 | $180,200 | 0.70x |
| Interest rate 100 basis points higher | $1,400,600 | $321,500 | 1.16x |
| A 104-room branded hotel opens at Exit 138 in 2029: occupancy of 48 percent | $1,222,400 | $222,500 | 0.87x |
| Cash flow sweep applied: balance reduced to about $1,460,000 by 2030 | $1,400,600 | $321,500 | 2.10x |
| Construction extends through 2032: 2031 occupancy 65 percent at $95 | $1,769,700 | $526,400 | 2.05x |
| As proposed: $5,500,000 price, $4,455,000 loan | $1,400,600 | $321,500 | 0.69x |
The restructured hotel without the sweep holds coverage above 1.0x in the cost and interest cases and falls below it in the rate, occupancy and new-supply cases, which is why the determination conditions on the sweep: with the balance reduced by the construction-period cash flow, the hotel covers at about 2.1x in 2031 and survives every single-factor case, including the unverified 104-room hotel. The as-proposed structure fails in the base case. The study presents the credit this way because a lender who sizes to the trailing income is lending against a demand that the borrower's own projections, the campus's own schedule and the parish's own moratorium all say will end.
Risk Factors and Mitigants
- Demand cliff. The campus's construction ends in 2030 and the utility's in 2028. The study carries the contract segment to zero by 2031, sizes the loan to the post-construction year and applies a sweep while the demand lasts.
- Transient revenue test. The model places the hotel at 56 percent transient as operated. The lender's reconstruction from the folio history is a condition, and the buyer's operating plan caps block stays at 29 nights.
- Price. The asking price capitalizes construction-period income. The restructured price of $46,053 per room is anchored on the closed sale of the same brand and age class in the region; the buyer's equity, not the lender's loan, absorbs any premium above it.
- Deferred capital. Fifteen years without renovation. The $700,000 reserve is funded at closing and the work is phased to avoid closing the hotel during the peak.
- Workforce housing supply. Up to 1,000 crew beds compete for the weekly segment. The study counts them as supply and declines the contract segment faster than the workforce.
- New hotel supply. A 104-room hotel at the interchange is a broker's claim. It is run as a sensitivity at 0.87x without the sweep and about 1.5x with it, and the parish's pending zoning study is noted.
- Property tax and millage. The assessor's millage table is a 2021 estimate; a reassessment on sale is carried, and the current rate is a disclosed item.
- Rate. The segment's national rate fell about 9 percent in the first half of 2026. The study carries the rate down by 30 percent from the trailing figure over four years.
Conditions and Limitations
The determination of not feasible at the asking price and feasible as restructured is subject to the following conditions precedent on the restructured program:
- A purchase price not exceeding $3,500,000 for the real estate, the business and the franchise, with a Quality of Earnings report as required at the $3,000,000 business purchase price threshold.
- The lender's reconstruction of the trailing length-of-stay mix from the property management system confirming that more than 50 percent of prior-year revenue came from guests staying 30 days or less.
- A capital reserve of $700,000 funded at closing and disbursed against a scope approved by the franchisor as the transfer property improvement plan.
- A loan covenant applying 50 percent of cash flow after debt service in 2027, 2028 and 2029 to principal.
- The franchisor's approval of the transfer and the brand's SBA addendum, with the brand listed in the SBA Franchise Directory.
- The buyer's equity injection of $2,060,000 from sources other than the seller, with advisory and broker fees excluded.
The following items could not be verified from a primary source at the study date and are disclosed: the subject's room count, which directories report as 76 and 78, and its corridor type, which the franchise's site did not confirm; the room counts, corridor types and current rates of the four parish competitors, which directories report inconsistently and which the brand sites did not confirm; the Richland Parish Assessor's parcel records, acreage and tax amounts for the subject and the competitors, and the current parish millage, last published as a 2021 estimate; the Town of Rayville's and the Town of Delhi's zoning status beyond the parish's reported absence of zoning; the police jury's RV park moratorium ordinance number, date, scope and expiration; the number of RV and crew housing sites approved parishwide; the existence, brand and schedule of a 104-room hotel at the interchange; and the seller's actual asking price, trailing operating statements and length-of-stay mix, all of which are MMCG model assumptions in this illustrative study.
What the Study Contains
- The written determination with the as-proposed and restructured structures stated side by side and the six conditions precedent
- The Appendix 15 analysis: the historical coverage test on both measurement periods, the Quality of Earnings requirement, the 25-year term basis and the equity injection rules
- The transient revenue test with the length-of-stay reconstruction and the post-2030 projected mix
- The normalization of trailing income with each adjustment stated: the dated contract segment, deferred capital, management, property tax and insurance
- The demand basis: the campus and utility schedules, the workforce housing supply, the permanent demand base and the interchange's share
- The competitor census with the directory counts and the unverified items disclosed
- The rate card and the five-year decline curve with contract and transient points separated
- The project cost estimate and loan assumptions in MMCG's standard format, with both structures
- The USALI operating budget by line, the five-year pro forma and coverage by year for both structures
- The break-even occupancy at each test and the sensitivity cases, including the new-supply, sweep and extended-construction cases
- The 7(a) compliance notes: the eligibility finding, the Franchise Directory, the guarantee fee and the service fee
This model study applies the methodology described on MMCG's hotel feasibility study and hotel acquisition, conversion and PIP feasibility study pages. MMCG prepares hotel feasibility studies for SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA Business and Industry and conventional lenders nationwide, with engagements from $4,900 and delivery in 9 to 16 business days.
Sources
- Travel Weekly Hotel and Travel Index, Cvent and TripAdvisor directory listings, Super 8 by Wyndham Rayville, 116 Cottonland Drive, accessed October 2026
- Travel Weekly, HotelPlanner, AirNav and TripAdvisor directory listings, Days Inn by Wyndham Rayville and The Richland Lodge, 125 Maxwell Drive, accessed October 2026
- AAA, Cvent and HotelPlanner directory listings, Best Western Delhi Inn, 135 Snider Road, Delhi, accessed October 2026
- Travel Weekly and Cvent directory listings, Executive Inn Express, 113 Snider Road, Delhi, accessed October 2026
- Champions Black Bear Lodge, Facebook page, accessed October 2026
- LoopNet listing 35602491, Rayville Motel, 1134 Harrison Street, Coldwell Banker Group One Realty, accessed October 2026
- LandSearch, LoopNet, Century 21 Commercial and John Rea Realty, McGowan Lane, Rayville, MLS 216433, accessed October 2026
- The Advocate, Tyler Bridges, as republished by GovTech, Louisiana Town Transformed by Meta Data Center Interest, August 31, 2026
- Louisiana Economic Development and Office of the Governor, Meta selects Northeast Louisiana as site of $10 billion data center, December 2024
- Meta, One Year In: Richland Parish Data Center, December 2025; Meta and Blue Owl Capital joint venture, October 21, 2025; Meta Data Centers, Deepening our investment in Richland Parish, Louisiana, July 13, 2026
- Fortune, Meta's $27 billion AI data center is causing chaos in small town Louisiana, March 26, 2026
- Shreveport-Bossier Advocate, From RV camps to packed hotels, Meta data center project has Louisiana parish bursting at the seams; and Sales taxes show the winners in north Louisiana Meta project, 2026
- FOX 8 WVUE, Meta's $27 billion AI data center is transforming rural Louisiana, May 12, 2026
- KNOE, Housing efforts underway as Meta Data Center brings surge of workers to NELA, May 19, 2025
- Entergy Louisiana, Entergy Louisiana to power Meta's data center in Richland Parish, December 2024; Franklin Farms Power Station groundbreaking, 2025
- Richland Parish Assessor, 2021 Estimated Millage Rate table
- Louisiana Association of Tax Administrators, Richland Parish sales tax rates effective January 1, 2025; Louisiana Department of Revenue, state sales tax rate for hotel rooms
- Louisiana Revised Statutes, R.S. 33:4574.1.1, occupancy taxes levied by tourist commissions, as amended by Acts 2025 No. 468
- Louisiana Tax Commission, Annual Report 2024, assessment ratios for land, improvements and business personal property
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages in Monroe, May 2024, Southwest Information Office, July 10, 2025
- Marcus and Millichap, sale of Super 8 Gulfport, Mississippi, 95 rooms, $4,400,000, January 2023, via REBusinessOnline and citybiz; Kabani Hotel Group, sale of Days Inn Foley, Alabama, April 2025, via Hotel Management; Marcus and Millichap, sale of Super 8 Spearfish, South Dakota, January 2026, via LODGING
- HotelData by Actabl, H1 2026 Hotel Profitability Report, economy class
- CoStar, U.S. hotel performance for 2025 and August 2026 forecast
- The Highland Group, Report on the US Extended-Stay Hotel Market 2026, and Kalibri Labs length-of-stay analysis
- U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8.1, effective October 1, 2026, Appendix 15
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Information Notice 5000-881797, fiscal 2027 7(a) fees
- Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, cost data, 2026
