A 220-unit Class A garden community proposed on an 8.06-acre commercially zoned parcel at 949 E Sunset Boulevard in Celina, the fastest-growing city in Collin County, with a sponsor's capital stack that assumes a HUD Section 221(d)(4) loan at the 87 percent loan-to-cost limit of Mortgagee Letter 2026-01. At that structure the Project covers debt service at 0.76x in its stabilized year, because the 1.15x coverage test, not the loan-to-cost limit, sizes a HUD loan with the 10-year Treasury above 5 percent. The written determination is not feasible as proposed and feasible as resized to 180 units, with the HUD loan sized by coverage at $29,880,000, 61.9 percent of a $48,300,000 total project cost, and the sponsor's equity at $18,420,000.
Model study prepared by MMCG Invest | Michal Mohelsky, J.D., FMVA | October 1, 2026
Study at a Glance
| Item | Finding |
|---|---|
| Subject | 949 E Sunset Boulevard, Celina, TX 75009 |
| Site | 8.06 acres, commercially zoned, marketed on Homes.com (asking price not published) |
| Program as proposed | 220 units, four-story wrap with a partial parking deck, $60,500,000 ($275,000 per unit) |
| Program as resized | 180 units, three-story garden with surface parking, 90 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 18 three-bedroom units, 201,000 SF gross |
| Loan program | HUD Section 221(d)(4), market-rate, Mortgagee Letter 2026-01: lesser of 87 percent of replacement cost and 1.15x coverage, 7 percent vacancy, 40-year term after construction, 25 basis point MIP |
| Total Subject Project Cost (resized) | $48,300,000 ($268,333 per unit) |
| Stabilized revenue (Year 3) | $4,240,960 |
| Debt service coverage (resized) | Year 1 escrow funded, 1.01x Year 2, 1.15x Year 3, 1.19x Year 4, 1.23x Year 5 |
| Break-even occupancy (Year 3) | 38.7 percent before debt, 86.1 percent at 1.0x coverage, 93.0 percent at 1.15x |
| Determination | Not feasible as proposed; feasible as resized to 180 units, subject to a Planned Development zoning approval for multifamily on the parcel, a sponsor equity commitment of $18,420,000, and a pipeline census of the Celina and north McKinney submarket at pre-application |
Determination
MMCG concludes that the 220-unit community proposed for 949 E Sunset Boulevard in Celina, Texas is not feasible as proposed and is feasible as resized to 180 units. The sponsor's proposal assumes a HUD Section 221(d)(4) loan at the 87 percent loan-to-cost limit, $52,635,000 on a $60,500,000 cost, and that loan carries annual debt service of $3,606,847 against stabilized cash flow after reserves of $2,730,748, a coverage ratio of 0.76x that no MAP lender will underwrite. The limit the sponsor has planned around is not the limit that binds: at a 6.00 percent HUD note rate with the 25 basis point mortgage insurance premium and a 40-year amortization, the 1.15x coverage test sizes the 220-unit loan at $34,650,000, 57.3 percent of cost, and requires $25,850,000 of sponsor equity. At 180 units the coverage-sized loan is $29,880,000, 61.9 percent of a $48,300,000 cost, the equity requirement falls to $18,420,000, and the Project reaches 1.15x coverage at a 93 percent stabilized occupancy in Year 3 and 1.23x in Year 5. The resizing is also what the submarket supports: 180 units are 3.5 percent of the units under construction in the Allen and McKinney submarket at mid-2026, lease up in about 13 months at the pace observed at the Preston Road deliveries, and reach stabilization inside the initial operating deficit escrow the budget carries, whereas 220 units require a four-story wrap on a parcel entitled for commercial use, a 24-month absorption against three lease-up competitors within five miles, and a stabilized occupancy MMCG carries at 92 percent rather than 93. The determination is conditioned on three items: a Planned Development zoning approval from the City of Celina permitting 180 multifamily units on the parcel, which is zoned commercial; a written sponsor equity commitment of $18,420,000; and a pipeline census of the Celina and north McKinney submarket at the HUD pre-application date confirming that no project of more than 200 units has been approved within three miles since this study.
Scope and Basis of This Model Study
This is an MMCG model study: a complete feasibility analysis performed on a real, publicly marketed parcel using public data, prepared to show lenders and sponsors how MMCG underwrites a HUD Section 221(d)(4) market-rate apartment project in a Sun Belt submarket that is still absorbing the 2024 and 2025 supply wave. It is not a client engagement, MMCG has no relationship with the landowner or the listing broker, and the analysis does not represent an offer, an appraisal or a recommendation to buy the parcel. Figures drawn from government sources, property websites and the listing are identified as such. Figures labeled MMCG assumption are underwriting inputs set by MMCG from industry benchmarks, and items that could not be verified from a primary source at the study date are listed in the Conditions and Limitations section rather than estimated silently. In particular, the parcel's asking price, the City of Celina's Unified Development Code density and parking standards for multifamily, the consolidated 2025 property tax rate for the parcel, the unit counts and asking rents of the competing communities other than the Livano at Bluewood, and the HUD note rate were not confirmed from primary sources at the study date and are carried as stated assumptions.
Project Business Plan
The Project will operate as a Class A market-rate apartment community on the 8.06-acre parcel at 949 E Sunset Boulevard in Celina, Collin County, Texas, on the east side of the Preston Road corridor north of the Dallas North Tollway extension and within the Celina Independent School District. The physical program as resized comprises six three-story wood-frame garden buildings over slab with masonry and fiber cement veneer, holding 180 units in three plans: 90 one-bedroom units of 750 SF, 72 two-bedroom units of 1,100 SF and 18 three-bedroom units of 1,350 SF, for 171,000 SF of net rentable area and 201,000 SF gross, together with a single-story clubhouse of 5,500 SF containing the leasing office, a fitness room, a resident lounge and a package room, a resort pool with a shaded courtyard, a dog park, 315 surface parking spaces at 1.75 per unit including 40 detached garages, and a gated entry. The community will be managed by a third-party fee manager under a HUD-approved management agreement at 3 percent of effective gross income, with an on-site staff of five full-time equivalents comprising a community manager, a leasing consultant, a maintenance supervisor, a maintenance technician and a make-ready technician. The sponsor will hold the land and improvements in a single-asset limited partnership that is the HUD mortgagor, with the general partner providing the HUD regulatory agreement guarantees and no personal recourse on the insured loan. The Project is positioned as the newest garden community on the Celina side of the Preston Road corridor, at asking rents of $1,650 for a one-bedroom, $2,050 for a two-bedroom and $2,450 for a three-bedroom at opening, below the two-bedroom and three-bedroom asking rents published by the 2022 delivery on the same corridor and above the Collin County median gross rent of $1,859, with a lease-up concession of up to two months free on the first leases and no concession in the stabilized year.
Marketing and Sales Strategy
Pre-leasing begins four months before the first certificate of occupancy from a leasing trailer on the site and a furnished model on the first completed building, with the leasing consultant and the community manager hired at that point. Digital acquisition runs through the internet listing services and search advertising on Celina, Prosper and McKinney apartment terms, where the renter pool is concentrated in households relocating for employment along the Dallas North Tollway and the State Highway 121 corridor. The corporate and relocation channel, which supplies a large share of initial leases in a new-growth suburb, is worked through the relocation managers at the employers in Frisco and Plano and the preferred-employer program offers a waived administrative fee. The concession budget is held in the lease-up line of the sources and uses, not in the stabilized pro forma, and is released by the manager against the weekly leasing report; the two-months-free offer is withdrawn building by building as each reaches 85 percent leased. Retention runs through renewal pricing held at or below 3 percent in the first renewal cycle, because the Preston Road competitors are expected to still be offering concessions when the subject's first leases roll.
Amenities
- Clubhouse of 5,500 SF with leasing office, resident lounge, coworking room and conference room
- Fitness center of 1,200 SF with cardio and free weights, open 24 hours by access card
- Resort-style pool with sun shelf, shaded cabanas and outdoor kitchen
- Dog park and pet wash station
- Package room with refrigerated lockers
- 40 detached single-car garages and 275 surface spaces, gated entry
- In-unit washer and dryer, quartz counters, stainless appliances, 9-foot ceilings, private patios or balconies
- Smart locks, smart thermostats and bulk internet included in rent
Site and Location Analysis
The parcel is an 8.06-acre tract at 949 E Sunset Boulevard in Celina, marketed on Homes.com as a commercial-zoned property; the listing does not publish an asking price, and MMCG carries the land at a negotiated basis of $4,040,000, or $11.50 per square foot of land, which is an MMCG assumption to be replaced by a contract price. An alternative tract of about 11.65 acres at 1122 County Road 1224 in Celina is marketed on the same platform as commercial land without a price and would support the same program at lower density. The subject is inside the City of Celina and the Celina Independent School District, east of Preston Road and north of the Dallas North Tollway's planned northern extension, in the growth corridor where the city's 2022 and 2023 multifamily deliveries and its approved 2025 and 2026 projects are concentrated.
Celina is the demographic outlier in Collin County. The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimate places the city's population at 64,427 on July 1, 2025, up 276.8 percent from the 16,739 counted in April 2020, with a median household income of $170,894 over 2020 to 2024 and 4.7 percent of persons in poverty. The city is an ownership market: 92.7 percent of occupied housing units are owner-occupied, so renters are 7.3 percent of households, and the median gross rent of $2,379 reflects a small, high-end rental stock dominated by single-family rentals and the two garden communities delivered since 2022. The primary market area for the Project therefore extends beyond the city limits to Prosper, the US 380 corridor in north McKinney and the northern tier of Frisco, a 15-minute drive time in which the renter pool is deep and the competing supply is heavy.
Zoning and Entitlement
The parcel is zoned commercial, and the Project requires a Planned Development zoning approval from the City of Celina permitting multifamily residential at the proposed density. The city's Unified Development Code standards for multifamily density, height and parking were not retrieved at the study date, and the resized program is set at 22.3 units per acre with three-story buildings and 1.75 parking spaces per unit, a density and a parking ratio within the range of the garden communities the city has approved on the Preston Road corridor since 2021. The 220-unit program as proposed runs to 27.3 units per acre, which on an 8.06-acre parcel requires either a fourth story or a partial structured parking deck, and MMCG carries the as-proposed cost at $275,000 per unit against $268,333 for the garden program for that reason. The zoning approval is a condition precedent to the determination, and the HUD pre-application cannot be filed until it is in hand because the MAP Guide requires evidence of zoning at pre-application. The schedule carries nine months from submittal to Planned Development ordinance, which is the usual Celina interval for a rezoning with a concept plan.
Utilities, Fees and Property Tax
Water and wastewater service is provided by the City of Celina, and the budget carries $1,350,000 for utility connections and the city's water, wastewater and roadway impact fees as a stated allowance to be replaced by the city's written fee estimate at the Planned Development stage. The parcel is not identified in public records as lying within a Public Improvement District, a Municipal Utility District or a Tax Increment Reinvestment Zone, and no special assessment is carried; that absence should be confirmed by the title commitment because Celina has used Public Improvement Districts extensively for residential subdivisions and an assessment on the parcel would add to the tax line.
Property tax is the largest line in the operating budget. The consolidated 2025 rate for a Celina address, comprising the City of Celina, Celina Independent School District, Collin County and Collin College, is carried at $2.05 per $100 of assessed value as an MMCG assumption, to be replaced by the Collin County Tax Assessor's certified 2025 rates for the parcel. Collin Central Appraisal District values completed multifamily on the income approach and reappraises annually, and the first full-year assessment is carried at $38,000,000, or $211,000 per unit, which is the Year 3 net operating income capitalized at the district's typical rate for new garden product rather than the project cost. The resulting Year 1 tax of $779,000, or $4,328 per unit, escalates 2 percent per year and reaches $810,472 in Year 3, 19.1 percent of effective gross income. Texas apartments carry the highest tax burden of any Sun Belt state and the budget is built accordingly.
Trade Area Demographics
The primary market area is a 15-minute drive time from the parcel covering Celina, Prosper, the northern third of Frisco and the US 380 corridor in McKinney. Collin County as a whole held 1,297,179 residents on July 1, 2025, up 21.7 percent from the 2020 census, with a median household income of $121,600, 35.5 percent renter occupancy and a median gross rent of $1,859 over 2020 to 2024, and the county issued 19,082 building permits in 2025. The primary market area sits in the county's fastest-growing quadrant: Celina's 276.8 percent growth since 2020 is the highest of any Texas city of its size, and Prosper and north McKinney have added population at double-digit rates over the same period on the strength of the Dallas North Tollway extension and the State Highway 121 employment corridor.
The renter pool for a $1,650 to $2,450 rent schedule is set by the affordability ratio of 30 percent of income. A one-bedroom at $1,650 requires household income of $66,000; a two-bedroom at $2,050 requires $82,000; a three-bedroom at $2,450 requires $98,000. Against a county median household income of $121,600 and a primary market area median that MMCG estimates above $140,000, the income-qualified renter pool is the majority of renter households in the trade area, and the demand question for the Project is not affordability but share: how many of the renter households forming or moving within the trade area over the lease-up period the subject can capture against the competing deliveries. The American Community Survey tables for renter households by income band for the primary market area were not retrieved at the study date and the demand model carries MMCG's estimate from the county distribution.
Demand and Penetration
Dallas-Fort Worth is the largest apartment market in the country and in mid-2026 it is still absorbing the wave. Colliers' second-quarter 2026 report counts 43,320 units under construction across the metro with 24,133 scheduled to deliver in the following twelve months, net absorption of 12,042 units in the quarter against 6,238 deliveries, and occupancy of 93.8 percent. Cushman and Wakefield's second-quarter MarketBeat counts just over 30,200 units under construction on a narrower definition. Yardi Matrix's July 2026 Dallas report records asking rents down 1.6 percent year over year at an average of $1,524, a stabilized occupancy of 92.3 percent in April and 45,498 units underway, and RealPage reports that Dallas absorbed 5,960 units in the first quarter of 2026 after net move-outs of more than 2,000 units in late 2025, with Class A rents up 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Transwestern's first-half report places 5,089 units under construction in the Allen and McKinney submarket and 2,521 units absorbed there in the first half of 2026, and identifies Frisco, Allen and McKinney and Denton as the submarkets where the pipeline is concentrated. The most direct evidence on the Project's submarket is MAA's June 2026 investor disclosure, which names Plano, Allen and McKinney as a submarket struggling with negative new lease rates and high supply, while reporting Dallas concessions under four weeks and 95.0 percent occupancy on its stabilized Dallas portfolio.
The penetration test is run on the pipeline share. The resized 180 units are 0.7 percent of the metro's twelve-month delivery schedule and 3.5 percent of the Allen and McKinney submarket's units under construction; the 220 units as proposed are 0.9 percent and 4.3 percent. Against the submarket's first-half absorption of 2,521 units, an annualized pace above 5,000, the subject at 180 units needs to capture about 3.5 percent of a year's absorption to stabilize in 13 months, which is consistent with the share a new garden community on a growth corridor takes when it opens into a recovering market. At 220 units with a 24-month absorption, the subject would still be leasing into the 2027 deliveries from the Celina pipeline described below, and MMCG carries its stabilized occupancy at 92 percent and its Year 3 concession at 2 percent of gross potential rent for that reason.
Competitive Supply
MMCG identified one delivered community and three pipeline projects on the Celina side of the Preston Road corridor, plus the US 380 and Custer Road communities in north McKinney that form the southern edge of the competitive set. Only the Livano at Bluewood's rents were confirmed on the property's own website at the study date; the unit counts and rents of the other communities were not, and are listed in the Conditions and Limitations section.
Competitor Number 1: The Livano at Bluewood. This garden community is located at 2600 Kinship Parkway, Celina, TX 75009, inside the Bluewood master-planned community east of Preston Road, and is the subject's closest comparable in product and location. The property's own website publishes two-bedroom units starting at $1,995 and three-bedroom units starting at $2,345, across plans of 746 to 907 SF for one-bedroom units, 1,107 to 1,228 SF for two-bedroom units and 1,388 SF for three-bedroom units; a one-bedroom price was not published at the study date. Listing aggregators, used only to locate the property, show it as a 2022 delivery of 266 to 272 units, a count and year that were not confirmed from a primary source. The property was sold to an institutional buyer in July 2023 and is marketed in listings under a second name, Atlas Bluewood, which is the same property and not a second competitor.
Competitor Number 2: One Preston Station. This community is located in Celina on the Preston Road corridor and was identified through a listing aggregator. Unit count, year built and published rents were not confirmed on the property's own website at the study date.
Competitor Number 3: Jefferson Ownsby (pipeline). This project is located at Preston Road and Ownsby Parkway in Celina and is reported in Texas real estate press as a 436-unit community that secured $23,500,000 of C-PACE financing. It is carried as supply in the pipeline census with a delivery in 2027; its status and unit count were not confirmed with the developer or the City at the study date.
Competitor Number 4: The Depot at Celina Station (pipeline). This project is located in Celina's downtown district and is reported in the same press as a 336-unit community. It is carried as supply with a delivery in 2027; its status and unit count were not confirmed at the study date.
Competitor Number 5: US 380 and Custer Road garden communities, north McKinney. Four Class A garden communities delivered between 2022 and 2025 along the US 380 corridor in north McKinney, within the 15-minute drive time, form the southern edge of the competitive set. Their rents and concessions were not confirmed on the properties' own websites at the study date, and MMCG's rent positioning rests on the Livano at Bluewood and the metro Class A series.
The pipeline is the central fact of the competitive analysis. Two reported projects totaling 772 units are in the Celina pipeline for 2027, which is the subject's lease-up year under either program. The resized subject at 180 units would be 19 percent of the Celina deliveries in that window; the 220-unit program would be 22 percent. The determination's third condition requires a pipeline census at the pre-application date because a third approved project of more than 200 units within three miles would move the stabilized occupancy assumption below 93 percent and extend the absorption period beyond the initial operating deficit escrow.
Pricing and Rate Positioning
The subject's opening rent schedule is set from the Livano at Bluewood's published rents and the metro Class A series. The two-bedroom asking rent of $2,050 sits $55 above the Livano's published two-bedroom starting rent of $1,995 for a plan about the same size, and the three-bedroom rent of $2,450 sits $105 above the Livano's $2,345, which is the premium a 2028 delivery with current finishes carries over a 2022 delivery that is now in its second ownership and offering renewal pricing. The one-bedroom rent of $1,650 is set from the two-bedroom relationship at the Livano and from the metro Class A one-bedroom series, because the Livano did not publish a one-bedroom price at the study date. The blended asking rent is $1,890 per unit per month, $1.99 per square foot, against a Collin County median gross rent of $1,859 and a Celina median of $2,379 that reflects single-family rentals.
Concessions are modeled in two places. In the stabilized year the subject carries a 7 percent vacancy and collection loss, the HUD underwriting factor for market-rate projects, and no concession. In lease-up the subject offers up to two months free on initial leases, carried at 10 percent of gross potential rent in Year 1 and 2 percent in Year 2, which is consistent with the two to three months free that lease-up competitors in the Sun Belt were offering in mid-2026 and above the sub-four-week concessions MAA reports on its stabilized Dallas portfolio. Rents escalate 3 percent per year, below the 5.1 percent Milwaukee leads the nation with and above the metro's negative year-over-year print in July 2026, on the view that the Dallas pipeline falls sharply after 2026 and Class A rents, which were already growing 2.2 percent per quarter in the second quarter, lead the recovery.
Lease-Up and Occupancy
The Project opens in the fourth quarter of 2028 after an 18-month construction period and leases up at 13 units per month to 90 percent occupancy in about 13 months, then to a stabilized 93 percent occupancy from the second quarter of 2030. The absorption pace is set below the national benchmark, in which a conventional community took about 16 months to reach 85 percent occupancy at the end of 2024, against 12 months in 2019, and is checked against the public REIT lease-ups in mid-2026, where communities of 240 to 400 units stood at 41 to 75 percent occupancy after six to twelve months of leasing with two to three months free. HUD's absorption standard is the time to reach the balanced-market occupancy of 95 percent, and the MAP market study will carry the absorption period to that level; MMCG's stabilized occupancy of 93 percent is set below it because the submarket's stabilized occupancy, at 92.3 percent on the Yardi Matrix series and 93.8 percent on the Colliers series, does not support 95 percent in the subject's first stabilized year.
| Year | Average occupancy | Occupied units (of 180) | Blended asking rent | Lease-up concession | Total revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 52 percent | 93.6 | $1,890 | $408,240 | $1,826,928 |
| Year 2 | 90 percent | 162.0 | $1,947 | $84,097 | $3,900,519 |
| Year 3 | 93 percent | 167.4 | $2,005 | none | $4,240,960 |
| Year 4 | 93 percent | 167.4 | $2,065 | none | $4,368,189 |
| Year 5 | 93 percent | 167.4 | $2,127 | none | $4,499,235 |
Other income, which comprises garage rent, pet rent, bulk internet margin, application and administrative fees and late fees, is carried at $100 per occupied unit per month and escalates with rent. Year 1 average occupancy of 52 percent corresponds to roughly 90 percent at month 13; Year 2 average occupancy of 90 percent corresponds to stabilization at 93 percent during the year. The initial operating deficit escrow of $2,300,950 in the sources and uses covers the Year 1 shortfall against debt service and the construction-to-permanent conversion is scheduled at final endorsement after cost certification, in Year 2.
Project Cost Estimate
Location: 949 E Sunset Boulevard, Celina, TX 75009 Size in SF (Gross): 201,000
| Item | Cost | Cost in % | Cost per SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Cost | |||
| Land Acquisition (8.06 acres, negotiated) | $4,040,000 | 8.4% | $20.10 |
| Closing, Survey, Phase I and Geotechnical | $85,000 | 0.2% | $0.42 |
| Total Land Cost | $4,125,000 | 8.5% | $20.52 |
| Hard Cost | |||
| Base Cost | $22,110,000 | 45.8% | $110.00 |
| Exterior Walls | $2,412,000 | 5.0% | $12.00 |
| Heating & Cooling | $2,211,000 | 4.6% | $11.00 |
| Plumbing and Fire Sprinkler | $1,809,000 | 3.7% | $9.00 |
| Electrical and Lighting | $1,809,000 | 3.7% | $9.00 |
| Site Work, Paving and Stormwater Detention | $2,100,000 | 4.3% | $10.45 |
| Landscaping, Pool and Courtyards | $450,000 | 0.9% | $2.24 |
| Utility Connections and City of Celina Impact Fees | $1,350,000 | 2.8% | $6.72 |
| Architecture, Engineering and Permits | $1,500,000 | 3.1% | $7.46 |
| Hard Cost Contingency (5%) | $1,787,550 | 3.7% | $8.89 |
| Total Hard Cost | $37,538,550 | 77.7% | $186.76 |
| Improvements | |||
| Clubhouse, Leasing Office, Fitness and Model Unit FF&E | $450,000 | 0.9% | $2.24 |
| Signage | $40,000 | 0.1% | $0.20 |
| Access Control, Package and Technology Systems | $120,000 | 0.2% | $0.60 |
| Equipment Contingency (5%) | $30,500 | 0.1% | $0.15 |
| Total Equipment | $640,500 | 1.3% | $3.19 |
| Financial Cost | |||
| Construction Period Interest | $1,480,000 | 3.1% | $7.36 |
| HUD Application, Inspection and Upfront MIP | $315,000 | 0.7% | $1.57 |
| Lender Financing and Placement Fees | $450,000 | 0.9% | $2.24 |
| GNMA, Legal, Title and Closing | $255,000 | 0.5% | $1.27 |
| Working Capital Reserve (4% of loan) | $1,195,000 | 2.5% | $5.95 |
| Initial Operating Deficit Escrow (lease-up shortfall) | $2,300,950 | 4.8% | $11.45 |
| Total Financial Cost | $5,995,950 | 12.4% | $29.83 |
| Total Subject Project Cost | $48,300,000 | 100.0% | $240.30 |
Source: Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, MMCG
Total project cost of $268,333 per unit sits below the $341,000 per unit average of MAA's 2026 development pipeline because that portfolio is weighted to infill and mid-rise product in Charlotte, Denver, Phoenix and Richmond, and below the $271,000 low end of that pipeline, which is a Charleston garden community; hard cost of $187 per square foot gross is a three-story wood-frame garden figure for North Texas with surface parking and no structured deck. The 220-unit program as proposed is carried at $60,500,000, or $275,000 per unit, because the density on 8.06 acres requires a fourth story and a partial parking deck. The working capital reserve is carried at 4 percent of the loan under MAP practice and is released after stabilization; the initial operating deficit escrow of $2,300,950 is sized to the Year 1 shortfall of $1,945,426 against debt service with a margin of about $355,000 for a slower first quarter of leasing.
Loan Assumptions
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| LTC Ratio | 61.9% (sized by the 1.15x coverage test; the 87% limit is not reached) |
| Loan | $29,880,000 HUD Section 221(d)(4) insured, construction and permanent |
| Equity | $18,420,000 (38.1%) |
| Interest Rate | 6.00% note rate (MMCG assumption, September 2026 GNMA pricing) plus 0.25% annual MIP |
| Amortization | 40 years after an 18-month construction period, fully amortizing, non-recourse |
| Annual Debt Service | $2,047,546 including MIP |
The loan is sized at the lesser of the four amounts Mortgagee Letter 2026-01 prescribes: the requested mortgage, the statutory per-unit limit, 87 percent of replacement cost and the amount supportable at 1.15x coverage. At this cost basis the coverage test binds at $29,880,000 and the loan-to-cost test, which would allow $42,021,000, is not reached by $12,141,000. The statutory limit is not binding at this per-unit cost in Collin County. The sponsor's proposal assumed the 87 percent figure; at that loan, debt service of $2,879,516 against Year 3 cash flow of $2,354,748 is 0.82x on the resized program and 0.76x on the 220-unit program as proposed.
HUD Section 221(d)(4) Program Compliance
The Project is a market-rate new construction apartment community and is eligible under Section 221(d)(4) on a loan sized at 87 percent of replacement cost or 1.15x coverage with a 7 percent vacancy factor, under Mortgagee Letter 2026-01 of January 22, 2026, which applies to any application that has not reached initial endorsement. Mortgage insurance is 25 basis points upfront and annually under the final notice of September 23, 2025. The term is 40 years after the construction period, fully amortizing, non-recourse to the sponsor, with a construction-to-permanent close in a single transaction and conversion at final endorsement after cost certification.
The MAP Guide requires a market study for the pre-application as a complete and independent report, prepared by a qualified market analyst engaged by the MAP lender, with no affiliation to any party other than the lender, dated within 120 days of the pre-application and within 180 days of firm commitment, and stating the absorption period to the balanced-market occupancy of 95 percent. This study's market section is written to that content standard so that the lender's analyst can adopt or confirm it, and the analyst's independence is stated: MMCG has no interest in the sponsor, the land or the loan. The MAP Guide also requires evidence of zoning at pre-application, which is why the Planned Development approval is the first condition precedent.
The commercial space test does not apply; the Project has none. The sponsor's equity of $18,420,000 is a cash requirement at initial endorsement, net of any land equity HUD credits at the lesser of cost and appraised value, and the sponsor's commitment letter is the second condition precedent. The MAP lender's third-party exhibits, the appraisal, the market study, the architectural and cost review and the environmental review, are ordered after the Planned Development ordinance and the schedule carries 12 months from pre-application to initial endorsement, which is the 2026 interval MAP lenders budget.
Operating Expenses
The Year 3 operating budget at 93 percent occupancy is built by line for Celina, with property tax at the consolidated rate and insurance at the current Texas cost per unit.
| Line (Year 3, 93 percent occupancy) | Amount | Per unit per year |
|---|---|---|
| Property tax (assessed $38,000,000 at $2.05 per $100, escalated) | $810,472 | $4,503 |
| Property and liability insurance | $158,760 | $882 |
| Payroll and benefits (5 FTE), repairs and maintenance, turnover, utilities, marketing and administrative | $744,752 | $4,138 |
| Management fee (3 percent of effective gross income) | $127,229 | $707 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,841,212 | $10,229 |
| Net operating income | $2,399,748 | $13,332 |
| NOI margin | 56.6 percent | |
| Replacement reserve ($250 per unit) | $45,000 | $250 |
| Cash flow available for debt service | $2,354,748 | $13,082 |
Property tax is 44 percent of the operating budget and 19.1 percent of effective gross income, which is why the expense ratio of 43.4 percent sits above the 32 percent same-store ratio the largest coastal REIT reported for 2025 and above the national all-in operating cost of $7,981 per unit in the IREM 2024 series; a Texas garden community carries a tax burden roughly twice the national average and the budget is built to it. Insurance is carried at $800 per unit in Year 1, above the National Apartment Association's 2024 national average of $777, and escalates 5 percent per year. The controllable lines of $4,138 per unit are set from MMCG's Dallas-Fort Worth garden benchmarks and escalate 3 percent per year. The net operating income of $13,332 per unit compares with the $12,000 to $14,000 per unit range implied by MAA's Dallas same-store disclosures at its stabilized occupancy of 95.0 percent.
Five-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross potential rent | $4,082,400 | $4,204,872 | $4,331,018 | $4,460,949 | $4,594,777 |
| Vacancy and collection loss | ($1,959,552) | ($420,487) | ($303,171) | ($312,266) | ($321,634) |
| Lease-up concessions | ($408,240) | ($84,097) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other income | $112,320 | $200,232 | $213,114 | $219,507 | $226,092 |
| Effective gross income | $1,826,928 | $3,900,519 | $4,240,960 | $4,368,189 | $4,499,235 |
| Total operating expenses | $1,679,808 | $1,785,856 | $1,841,212 | $1,891,519 | $1,943,332 |
| Net operating income | $147,120 | $2,114,664 | $2,399,748 | $2,476,670 | $2,555,903 |
| NOI margin | 8.1% | 54.2% | 56.6% | 56.7% | 56.8% |
| Replacement reserve ($250 per unit) | $45,000 | $45,000 | $45,000 | $45,000 | $45,000 |
| Cash flow available for debt service | $102,120 | $2,069,664 | $2,354,748 | $2,431,670 | $2,510,903 |
| Annual debt service | $2,047,546 | $2,047,546 | $2,047,546 | $2,047,546 | $2,047,546 |
| Cash flow after debt service | ($1,945,426) | $22,118 | $307,202 | $384,124 | $463,357 |
| Debt service coverage | escrow | 1.01x | 1.15x | 1.19x | 1.23x |
The Year 1 shortfall of $1,945,426 is funded from the initial operating deficit escrow. The Project covers its debt from Year 2 at 1.01x, reaches the HUD underwriting test of 1.15x in Year 3 and builds to 1.23x by Year 5 as rents escalate at 3 percent against a tax line escalating at 2 percent and controllable expenses at 3 percent. The yield on cost of 4.97 percent in Year 3 is below the all-in HUD rate of 6.25 percent, which is the structural fact of 2026 development finance in the Sun Belt: leverage is negative, the coverage test sizes the loan at 62 percent of cost, and the sponsor's return is earned on the exit, when the pipeline has cleared, rather than on current cash flow.
Break-Even Analysis
At Year 3 rents, the community's fixed operating cost is $1,759,000 including the replacement reserve, and its variable cost is the management fee, which moves with revenue.
| Threshold | Occupied units | Occupancy |
|---|---|---|
| NOI break-even | 69.7 | 38.7 percent |
| 1.00x debt service coverage | 154.9 | 86.1 percent |
| 1.15x debt service coverage | 167.4 | 93.0 percent |
| Year 3 forecast | 167.4 | 93.0 percent |
The operating break-even at 38.7 percent is low because a market-rate apartment community has no care staffing and its fixed cost is dominated by the tax line; the debt break-even at 86.1 percent is where the credit lives. The 1.15x threshold at 93.0 percent occupancy sits exactly at the stabilized forecast, which is the arithmetic consequence of sizing the loan by the coverage test, and it is why Year 4 and Year 5 coverage, and the pipeline census that protects the 93 percent assumption, give the lender its cushion.
Sensitivity Analysis
| Case (Year 3, resized program) | Effective gross income | Net operating income | Debt service coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $4,240,960 | $2,399,748 | 1.15x |
| Rents 5 percent below forecast | $4,039,568 | $2,204,398 | 1.05x |
| Stabilized occupancy of 90 percent | $4,104,155 | $2,267,047 | 1.09x |
| Stabilized occupancy of 85 percent (a third pipeline project delivers) | $3,876,147 | $2,045,879 | 0.98x |
| Controllable expenses 10 percent above budget | $4,240,960 | $2,325,273 | 1.11x |
| HUD note rate 6.50 percent (loan resized to $28,144,000 at 1.15x) | $4,240,960 | $2,399,748 | 1.15x at a $1,736,000 lower loan |
| Combined: rents 5 percent lower and occupancy of 90 percent | $3,909,259 | $2,077,998 | 0.99x |
| As proposed: 220 units at the 87 percent loan-to-cost limit | $5,021,791 | $2,785,748 | 0.76x |
The resized Project holds coverage above 1.0x in every single-factor case except a third pipeline project that holds the subject to 85 percent occupancy, which reduces Year 3 coverage to 0.98x; that case defines the downside the lender is accepting and is the reason the pipeline census is a condition of the determination. The combined case of lower rents and 90 percent occupancy reduces coverage to 0.99x in Year 3, recovering above 1.0x in Year 4. The rate case shows that a 50 basis point rise in the HUD note rate before rate lock does not change coverage, because the loan is resized by the coverage test; it reduces proceeds by $1,736,000 and raises the equity requirement by the same amount, which is why the rate lock timing is a credit decision. The as-proposed case is the determination: 220 units at the 87 percent limit covers at 0.76x.
Risk Factors and Mitigants
- Entitlement. The parcel is zoned commercial and the Project requires a Planned Development approval for 180 multifamily units. The determination is conditioned on the ordinance, and the HUD pre-application cannot be filed without it; the schedule carries nine months.
- Leverage. The sponsor planned for 87 percent of cost and the coverage test allows 62 percent. The equity requirement is $18,420,000 against $6,279,000 at the proposed structure, and the determination is conditioned on a written equity commitment. A sponsor who cannot fund it should reduce the program further or defer the start until the note rate falls; at 220 units the equity requirement is $25,850,000.
- Pipeline. Two reported Celina projects totaling 772 units deliver in the subject's lease-up year, and the Allen and McKinney submarket carries 5,089 units under construction. A third approved project within three miles moves stabilized occupancy below 93 percent and coverage below 1.0x; the pipeline census at pre-application is a condition.
- Lease-up. Thirteen months to 90 percent with a $2,300,950 initial operating deficit escrow and two months free on initial leases. A slower first quarter consumes the escrow margin; the escrow should be held by the lender with draws against the monthly rent roll.
- Rate. The loan is resized by coverage at rate lock. A 50 basis point rise in the note rate reduces proceeds by $1,736,000 and raises the equity requirement by the same amount; the sponsor's commitment should be sized with that margin.
- Tax. Property tax at 19.1 percent of effective gross income is the largest line and rests on an assumed consolidated rate and an income-approach assessment. The certified rates and a Public Improvement District search on the title commitment should replace the assumptions before firm commitment.
- Cost. Hard cost at $187 per square foot gross carries a 5 percent contingency. The impact fee allowance of $1,350,000 should be replaced with the City's written estimate at the Planned Development stage.
Conditions and Limitations
The determination of feasible as resized is subject to the following conditions precedent:
- A City of Celina Planned Development zoning ordinance permitting 180 multifamily units at the proposed density, height and parking ratio on the parcel at 949 E Sunset Boulevard.
- A written sponsor equity commitment of $18,420,000, with a stated margin for a resizing of the loan by up to $1,750,000 at rate lock.
- A pipeline census of the Celina and north McKinney submarket at the HUD pre-application date confirming that no multifamily project of more than 200 units has been approved within three miles of the parcel since this study.
The following items could not be verified from a primary source at the study date and are disclosed: the asking price and current listing status of the parcel; the City of Celina Unified Development Code density, height and parking standards for multifamily and the Planned Development procedure; the consolidated 2025 property tax rate for the parcel and the presence or absence of a Public Improvement District assessment; the City's water, wastewater and roadway impact fee schedule; the unit count and year built of the Livano at Bluewood and its one-bedroom asking rent; the unit counts, years built, rents and concessions of One Preston Station and the north McKinney communities; the status and unit counts of Jefferson Ownsby and the Depot at Celina Station; the American Community Survey renter household income distribution for the primary market area; and the HUD note rate at rate lock, which is carried at 6.00 percent as an MMCG assumption from September 2026 GNMA pricing.
What the Study Contains
- The written determination with its three conditions precedent and the as-proposed case stated
- The site program and the site-fit analysis for 180 garden units on 8.06 acres against 220 units requiring a fourth story
- The zoning and entitlement path, including the Planned Development schedule and the MAP Guide's zoning evidence requirement at pre-application
- The property tax basis, the impact fee allowance and the assessment method with the assumptions stated
- The trade area demographics and the pipeline share analysis at both unit counts
- The competitor census with the verified and unverified fields stated and the two pipeline projects carried as supply
- The rent schedule, the concession treatment in lease-up and at stabilization, and the lease-up to a 93 percent stabilization
- The project cost estimate and loan assumptions in MMCG's standard format at both unit counts
- The operating budget by line with property tax at the consolidated rate
- The five-year pro forma, debt service coverage by year and break-even occupancy
- The sensitivity cases, including the rate case, the pipeline case and the as-proposed structure
- The HUD compliance notes: Mortgagee Letter 2026-01 sizing, the four-test loan calculation, the MAP Guide market study standard and the analyst's independence, the 25 basis point MIP and the pre-application schedule
This model study applies the methodology described on MMCG's multifamily feasibility study and HUD multifamily market study pages. MMCG prepares multifamily feasibility studies and HUD market studies for 221(d)(4), 223(f), USDA Section 538, LIHTC, agency and bank construction lenders nationwide, with engagements from $4,900 and delivery in 9 to 16 business days.
Sources
- Homes.com, 949 E Sunset Blvd, Celina, TX 75009 and 1122 County Road 1224, Celina, TX, land listings, accessed October 2026
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Celina city, Texas and Collin County, Texas, Vintage 2025 estimates and ACS 2020 to 2024
- The Livano at Bluewood, floor plans and pricing, thelivanobluewood.com, accessed October 1, 2026
- The Dallas Morning News, Boston investor buys 272-unit rental community in Celina, July 17, 2023
- The Texas Land Agent, Celina Texas apartment development secures $23.5 million in clean energy financing, 2026
- Colliers, DFW Multifamily Market Report, 2026 Q2
- Cushman and Wakefield, Dallas-Fort Worth Multifamily MarketBeat, Q2 2026
- Yardi Matrix, Dallas Multifamily Market Report, July 2026
- RealPage Analytics, Big Markets with Apartment Demand Rebounds, 2026, and 2nd Quarter 2026 Data Update, July 6, 2026
- Transwestern, Dallas-Fort Worth Multifamily Market Report, first half 2026, as reported by CRE Daily, August 2026
- Mid-America Apartment Communities, Nareit REITweek investor presentation, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, June 2026
- RealPage Analytics, Three Impacts of Record Supply on U.S. Apartments, and U.S. Concessions August 2026
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Mortgagee Letter 2026-01, Creating a Middle Income Housing Option for 221(d)(4), January 22, 2026
- Federal Register, 90 FR 45789, Changes in Mortgage Insurance Premiums Applicable to FHA Multifamily Insurance Programs, September 23, 2025
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Multifamily Accelerated Processing Guide, Handbook 4430.G, revision March 19, 2021, Chapters 2 and 7
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, MAP Guide Industry Briefing, Session 2, January 26, 2021
- U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Construction, August 2026, release CB26-147, September 17, 2026
- Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, September 30, 2026
- CBRE, Q2 2026 U.S. Capital Markets Report
- Institute of Real Estate Management, Income/Expense IQ National Summary, 2024 data
- National Apartment Association, Premium Pulse: National Multifamily Insurance Cost Acceleration, 2026
- Equity Residential, Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2025
- Marshall & Swift CoreLogic, cost data, 2026
